Who can one trust to grade accurately ?
afford
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It seems apparent ownership adds a point or more so you can't rust the owner of a coin. The grading companies are all over the place and spend far too less time studying the coin. A seller is worse than an owner for obvious reasons. And a buyer, well depending if he/she is over exuberant or super conservative or must have the coin at all costs just too wild.............who can you trust.
I often see coins posted here where the poster is showing off a coin with definite problems yet the problems are often overlooked.
If the grading companies spend a ridiculously short amount of time looking at a coin, they must go by first impressions. And if they don't use anything but a 5x loupe then they must not care to look too close because the industry standards to call for it, similar to the hobby policing itself which never goes well. Only the current caretaker of the coin study's a coin for a longer period of time hopefully with a higher than a 5x loupe. But every time I talk about using a high powered lope I catch crap from the industry and some collects who wear both hats. Now why wouldn't dealer want me to take a closer and longer look, after all with the colored or checkered history of this hobby i.e. coin doctors galore and every other shady practice occurring can you blame them. But the problem is I have to live with what I buy and it seems that every time I go to sell a coin the dealer or buyer all of a sudden studies it for a lot longer than they wanted me to study it for and the circle of not wanting to get taken starts again. I typically have only been clobbered by dealers attempting to lower my asking price by pointing out just about every flaw imaginable when negotiating on buying my coins the few times I have attempted to sell.
Nothing seems to be fair in this hobby and that is why I will always take my time in studying the coin, use many loupes to uncover hard to see characteristics and ignore what is written not he label or what the dealer says.
GLTA
Comments
Well said Afford. Generally, it is as you say. For years I carried both a 5X and 16X loupe. I didn't care if I caught grief for applying 16X to better check out a hunk of carbon on a coin, or if something was a die defect or post mint damage, or checking for recutting on a date. At auctions, it wouldn't be unusual for me to spend 5-15 min looking at the same coin if it was $5,000 or more....every possible angle, multiple light sources, different magnifications. You will likely never get a better view of a coin than you do at home looking at a raw coin, under optimum lighting...something rarely possible on the bourse floor or auction viewing. Looking through plastic slabs doesn't help either. I'm in awe of those who can grade in 15 seconds or less with unaided eye or at most 5X, and never change their grade no matter how much more time they spend looking. That's never been me.
Speaking of listing every flaw imaginable. I did that once for a coin I mentioned was for sale here. An OGH 1795 half VG8. It had F12 details. Very nice coin. I was asked to send this out to a member for possible purchase. Yet, I didn't want risk having them claim I wasn't up front about any possible problems, or tried to mislead them, or even stick them with a bad coin that I was "puffing up." Your reputation is on the line then. I didn't have any photos to show either. So I made a detailed list of EVERY flaw I could find on the coin, approx 50 when I was done. Every visible mark, line, wipe, color change, striking defect, adj marks, etc. By the time I was done, it probably seemed like the coin had been through a war. The collector passed and said don't send it. It was probably for the best. I wholesaled the coin a short time later for 10% more money to a leading retailer at the 2007 CoinFest Show. They loved it flaws and all. No returns, no issues.
In the end, trust yourself. But, also get inputs from other trusted sources. Set them up early in your buying career. Ensure they are the right people for you. Routinely bounce thoughts and grades off them. Get feedback from the TPG's and CAC as well. Nothing is worse than setting up a "mentor" who's primary job is to stick you with over-graded material. A couple of my very early "mentors" did try to do just that. They lasted about 1-2 yrs. Don't forget to vet the mentors too.
In other words, do what you need to do.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Buying coins for your collection should be by your rules. The only problem is if you spend enough time with high enough magnification you can make any coin into a problem. The market seems to feel that grading with a 5x loupe is acceptable standard though. Once you realize that the grading scale is now as much about assigning values as it is to determining level of wear you can see why some coins with problems end up in straight graded holders. Intentionally.
There is a video that was posted here where the man was doing the PCGS grading contest at this years ANA and had Ron Guth go over his results with him. Ron did explain quite a bit about how toning and other factors of a coins appearance can affect the grade as opposed to just surface wear and contact marks.
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To be safe. Come up with your own standards that are more critical than the TPG's or even CAC. Account for things they might let slip by. While you might have to look at a lot of more coins to find a suitable one, you odds of "accepting" something that later comes back to haunt you is far less. It never hurts to be overly fussy...other than getting chided by your peers. You might not bag as many "wins." You also probably won't bag as many "losses." It's the big losses that kill most collectors. The big wins are few are few between....and usually occurring BEFORE the coin gets shown to you. "Grading" coins is more about avoiding losses.
Yourself. You just need to carefully examine all the coins you see and form a mental picture of what TPGs like to see in a grade for that type coin. It's very difficult, but if you really work at it its possible. This has got to be in hand.
Who can one "trust" to "accurately" rate the quality and value of books, movies, art, architecture, antiques, or anything else for that matter?
There are opinions we all give some credibility to, but in the end we all must trust ourselves.
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Assuming that we are buying coins that we enjoy with discretionary funds, does it really matter?
Only yourself. A collector of anything needs to learn how to grade and detect "surface adjustments" ( new term I just thought up). There is no substitute for your own knowledge.
Watson. Yes I feel there is computer grading it just don't make any money on regrades.
All the old sayings come in to play here: Grading is an art, not a science; art is subjective; it's all a matter of opinion.
Each collector decides for themselves whom they can trust and to what degree...but the buck stops with the collector's own judgment.
I've worked closely with one dealer for most of the last ten years. I trust his judgment far more than I trust most others in the hobby. Still, sometimes he'll recommend a coin or tell me he likes a coin, but I may not like it for some reason or I may see it differently than he does.
As for whom I trust, my baseline is PCGS - I want the coin to be in one of their holders. Then I want a positive endorsement from my dealer, because I consider him a friend and a mentor and he sees far more coins than I do. And, by the way, it's not just the one dealer I mentioned above; I want to develop a friendship with all the dealers from whom I buy. I want to get to know them and I want to understand what they look for in the types of coins I collect. I want to understand how our opinions may differ and why.
Then I decide for myself.
"Accurate" depends on a stable standard. Since there is no current (or past) numismatic standard for coin conditions, there can be no objectively "accurate" or consistent coin grading.
This is precisely what I thought as soon as I read the OP. It's all a game---just do one's best to get a chair just before the music stops.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
very few collectors will ever grade as well the folks who buy and sell every day and submit every day to the grading services-the dealers.
a dirty little secret-you'll find the biggest percentage of the best graders (unfortunately some are coin docs) and the PCGS invitational. Regardless, they know their stuff. They attend major shows too, they just blend in better. At the PCGS they usually submit the most.
view auction lots and then see what prices go for. do this for several sales and you'll learn a lot about how the market judges grading.
A stable standard is the ANA grading standards set forth in 1977. If you stray from those guidelines and assign the correct grade as something the grading services put on a holder than you are shifting your standards to meet the market. The general grading idea of the ANA grading standards is Uncirculated = MS60 - MS62, Average Unc = MS63, Choice Unc = MS64, Gem Unc = MS65 and Superb Gem Unc = MS66 to MS67 and Perfect Gem Unc = MS68 - MS70. Use these guidelines and then match the coin regardless of the grade on the holder to these grades.
The PDS grading system take this a step further and assigns factors for P = Planchet (marks), D = Die (die state) and S = Strike to the grade. If you overgrade or use an overgraded label on a slab, then some of the factors (P usually) will be low. If you chose a grade that is right on, the factors will be average or better. If you undergrade a coin then some of the factors will be high, especially for P since it describes the marks or impairment associated for the given grade.
Keep in mind that a 1799 dollar with rub and graded MS63 is really an AU coin by ANA grading standards. It just trades at a premium. That is market grading as opposed to ANA grading.
The closer you are to collecting for pure enjoyment the less it matters and the more you consider your purchases as investments the more it matters. Grading will always be subjective, but some opinions certainly carry more weight than others. Same with real estate agents. Same with hiring a good lawyer. Same with finding a good surgeon. Collecting a bunch of informed opinions helps, especially when they're generally in agreement.
I like what Roadrunner said about taking time examining valuable purchases. I've even found it useful to view a coin, leave it alone for a couple hours and then look at it again.
In the end, you have to trust yourself. Within a narrow range of a single series I'm slowly getting there. There's nothing more gratifying than when that confidence and knowledge pays off in terms of an upgrade, sticker, or other affirmation that you're on the right path.
"BINGO" Must trust ourselves. Because we need to live with all are decisions.
Hoard the keys.
I remember one time years ago at a show, guy was selling coins to a dealer. He kept getting , this has this issue, that problem , etc. I can only pay x. Only for the guy to say to the dealer, "well I bought these from you a while back and you said they were nice and problem free> o h well
Its best to learn yourself and use your own judgement by gaining experience in knowing what to look for. A simple fact, that a majority of collectors though honestly just wont ever be good enough to truly know how to grade or detect problems. We have folks in our local coin club as well as others I have met over the years that have been collecting since the 40's and 50's , that truly just can't do it no matter how hard they try. They can generally tell if something is marginal, but just cant determine it on there own period. Its unfortunate , but a reality in this business. That's why IMO, the very best graders in the business are talented oriented , meaning that I think grading coins is a talent, either you have it or you don't. You can practice all day and work at it , but you will only ever be marginally good compared to the best in the business. Just like myself, coin grading comes easy for me. But something I am not good at music, I could practice playing say the guitar for years, and get better than I am, but never be anywhere close to some of the good guitar players.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
I believe there can be. When nearly every top grader/dealer/collector you show the coin to agrees that it is very nice for the grade, with many backing that up with strong buy offers. I would consider that 75% agreement is adequate for a coin to be accurately graded. Another method is resubmitting to TPGs. If your coin submitted raw each time can come back the same grade 3/4 or 4/5 times or better, that's an "accurate" market grade imo. On one coin I had that I felt was really the next grade up. It was sent back 5X raw and each time got the same grade (it eventually went the higher grade too for the next owner). The debate occurs when the same coin grades differently on multiple submissions. Some coins I have sent back graded the same only 50% of the time. Other times I've had 3 diff grades on 3 submissions. On those, I didn't feel the grade could be considered "accurate." On coins that get submitted 5X, and the highest graded occurs only on the last time, that is not accurate imo.
I also won't say it's economical or even logical or easy to follow the above steps. But, it's about the best definition /determination I could think of to verify an "accurate" grade. Our market is not set up for this. It's only set up to ensure that a coin sells for slightly more than what the underbidder/underbuyer considers it to be worth at that point in time. So at major auction if 2 people see a coin as worth $1,000, while the other 98 are at $400-$800....it sells for the $1,000. If one or more of those high bidders disappears next time around, the coin could end up in the $400-$800 range.
There are no grading standards as standards are defined by the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) or the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). There are general, agreed upon guidelines (ANA) that some apply and then, to muddy the waters even more, issues like tarnish, eye appeal etc., are added to the mix. So yes, there are general guidelines that experts will - in general - agree upon... and the good graders will likely agree 80% of the time.... that helps, but does not establish a 'standard'. True standards can be measured and are repeatable by ANYONE AND EVERYONE with the proper tool. We will - at least for the foreseeable future - have to live with 'trained opinions'..... it is the best we have. Welcome to numismatics... Cheers, RickO
Your question makes the implicit assumption that a single "accurate" grade exists for every given coin, and therefore the question becomes just who to find that will accurately assign it. In my opinion, that's not really the case in real life.
Trying to shrink down a coin's multiple attributes (wear, strike, eye appeal, toning, damage, hits & marks, obverse and reverse) into a single numerical value is something that different people will do differently, and sometimes even the same person will do differently on different days.
Good thread.
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I want to say JA. My God if HE can't.....well no one can. Yet, I showed him a significant raw coin and he told me "not cleaned". Yet, pcgs said it was. So. I give up.
I have a theory that all of this gibberish (including cracking, gradeinflation, regrading, crossing, + grades, * grades, reconsideration, CAC, processing and doctoring) is a money-making scheme that benefits the participants to the detriment of collectors/investors and allows the grading services and fellow-travelers to unjustly perpetuate and enrich themselves.
My answer to the OPs question is nobody. Nowadays, folks don't try to grade coins - they try to guess how they will be graded!
A single grade (ie market price evaluation) allows a faster TPG operation and increases revenues. When ANACS came out with their detailed paper certs in the later 1980's they included a grade for each side, as well as a 1-5 factor for eye appeal, strike, and luster. They gave you a grading opinion....so that you could determine the value. Several dealers of that era also did something similar by applying ABCD factors to the grades to identify eye appeal,s strike, and luster. Firms like Numismatic Professionals Inc. didn't even market "D" coins to their customers. Typical grade might be MS65 ABA or AAB. A grade of 65 AAA was rarely given as exceptional coins in every respect were scarce even back then. Regardless, that's the same thought process a TPG goes through to evaluate a coin and assign a single grade.
I trust me , and there are TPGs who will charge me to disagree with my opinion. Trust me. LOL
***** Wow. Absolutely Frikking True. It IS an industry that invents ways to pull money out of collectors. Is it rigged????? Is it planned???? Do the BigWigs get together and scheme???? Is there a long range plan to further develop all this???? Yes, most assuredly Yes. Where will it end, Probably with thousands of fully disenchanted collectors buying 2x2 Manila envelopes and little white cotton inner liners.....and memorizing Sheldon's grading system....and becoming collectors in charge of their own hobby.
I am playing both ends. I'm enjoying my hobby and my 100% appreciation in CLCT stock.
Hmmmmm. First time I've been subtly accused of buying the holder.
We are all guilty of buying holders. There are only a few ways to avoid it:
Those are the only times I can honestly say I'm not buying a "holder."
Oh, I think it's possible to buy a coin at the money appropriate for the grade on the holder, and still not be buying the holder. It just means you agree with the holder. No need to be a militant about holders!
For me, the key is to TRY to get my personal grading in line with the TPG's. You aren't doing yourself any good to call a current market MS-65 a 63....or call a current market MS-63 a 65. You'll just drive yourself, (and those around you), nuts. You'll either never buy anything, or you'll buy everything. Neither are good.
I'm more inclined to avoid buying coins I don't like at the grade given, and buy those I think are good or better at the grade given. If I pass on a coin, that doesn't make it NOT the given grade....it's just not for me. If I buy, that doesn't mean it's a 'no debate' coin at that grade....it just means it's good enough for me.
It's a hobby (for me). Don't sweat the little stuff. (Yeah, I know. I'd be alone in thinking grading is a "little stuff" issue....but you know what I'm getting at.)