My 2017 resolition "Dom't make em=. But a 2017 forecast - Yes
oldgoldlover
Posts: 429 ✭✭✭
I think rare coin prices will strengthen in 2017. Interest rates will increase. Here is why.
The economy will begin to really heal as corporate tax cuts will continue to drive up the Dow and consumer confidence will improve.
There will be more discretionary spending, some of which will go into collectibles as a result of more wage pressure and jobs.
interest rates will start to move upward as the U.S. job market improves.
Corporate America will be able to bring their foreign profits into the U.S. at a reasonable tax rate. This will be reemployed into our economy and give America a large tailwind as this money is invested domestically. Right now between $2.0 to $2.5 trillion is waiting fore the U.S. parent company to bring home what they have earned by their foreign operating subsidiary companies.
Small businesses, the driver to lower unemployment will have a much more business friendly operating environment.
All this boils down to increased free cash flow to spend on collectibles i.e. the late 1990s through 2008. Coin prices will track the stock market, which is up over 8% since the election.
Just my opinion but history tends to repeat itself.
Comments
Don't disagree with your assessment, but you should take another stab at the thread title. Looks like a Nigerian with limited command of the English language wrote it.
The future could indeed be as rosy as you predict (although I think your title was written under the influence of something that makes things look good
). I agree that the potential is there and believe it will become reality. We shall see... Cheers, RickO
I certainly hope that our future (nation, financial markets and coin environment) are as rosy as you predict.
Why would US corporations invest domestically when demand (both domestically and abroad) is down? Makes no sense.
Anything the 1% is into, will do better over the next 4 years.
Increased corporate profits ... the distribution ... 99 cent per dollar for the CEO and other senior executives ... a penny for the workers. The new aristocracy will be in firm control and they have no intention of sharing the spoils. In the coin market the trophy coins will do well and everything else will continue to slide.
Avoid double taxes and political risk is why investment in the U.S. makes more economic sense. The job numbers are getting better as businesses feel better about the economic outlook. Today's job numbers were good. The 30 Treasury is north of 3.0% and one of the best indicators are interest rates. What will take time is the American people to feel the effects of deregulation. The unemployment rate is below 5.0% and when it gets closer to the low 4% range we are at full employment. What will take some time is people feeling good about the economy as we had had nothing but mismanagement and an attempt to move closer to socialism for the last eight years. During this period we never had GDP growth at 3.0% or better annualized once. > @291fifth said:
I would agree that SOME CEO pay is out of hand but it is up to the shareholder ( institutional investors ) to dump the stock of a poorly managed company. GE is a classic example as it was trading at $60/shr before their CEO retired in the late 90s. Now that the Dow has doubled and GE is a Dow stock trading in the low$ 30S/shr all the mutual funds have dumped GE as a result of poor management and Imult's (CEO)options are not worth much. I would not pay too much attention what the left says about CEO pay and accumulating wealth is bad. CNN needs something to sell now as the election threw them for a loop. A good CEO makes most of his money with stock options and should as if under his management the company does well he should and is rewarded like the rest of the shareholders. The market sets the price for a given skill set. Free enterprise is what took the U.S. from a third world country in 1850 to the largest economy by 1945. We were 5% of the population and 50% of the global economy. If it is not broke don't try to fix it. The last eight years is a very good example.
As far as workers go with the correct skill set you will be fine but one must keep your skill set current. As we reach the mid 4% unemployment wage pressure will rise, especially when you factor in the number of baby boomers rolling out of the work force each day. At that time you will see interest rates moving up as the Fed is worried about inflation as the economy can overheat. I am retired and don't worry as much about the corporate world. Finally I can get a few coins I have wanted since my paper route days and that is exactly what I plan on doing. However, fishing and bird hunting will always be top past times.
I wish the same to you. Tariffs are a means to level the playing field when companies set up in Mexico. The U.S. has been getting shafted by trading partners that manipulate their currency for decades. Several companies have announced U.S. investment as a result of a more business friendly environment. Toyota opted not to build a manufacturing plant in Mexico when trump advised them a tariff on export of these vehicles to the U.S. Direction of the market - no one knows for sure but I doubt there are many foreign companies that will not want to tap the largest economy in the world now that they get to keep a fair share of the profits. The market was 10,000 in 1999, meaning it has doubled over the last 17 years. The crash of 2008 beat it down but i would refer the run as a recovery not a raging bull market. A very good way to tell if a quality stock is under valued is its dividend yield provided it is covered with cash flow. There are many quality names that have a current dividend yield north of 3.0% and their cash flow covers it well. The S&P current yield is 1.5%. As far as P/E calculate it with a corporate tax rate of 15-20% and you will see why the market has acted the way it has. Irrational exuberance no - adjusting for lower taxes, fair trade policies and lower regulation yes. It is possible to have a GNP number over 4.0% as we had with Bush. People bought in on "change" and that is just what they got. Pocket change. The stock and coin market are very similar in that they are a market for coins and a market for stocks. I mean the correct ones. This has always been the case and it won't change. I have an asset allocation model and stick to it no matter what I hear. It has worked in the past and should in the future. As far as portfolio modification it is what the institutional investors are doing that drives the market and they seem to like what they see.
Well... things are moving quickly... a businessman is now in charge... It will get very interesting as we move along.... some predictions will be right....many will be wrong.... Cheers, RickO
".........It is possible to have a GNP number over 4.0% as we had with Bush. People bought in on "change" and that is just what they got. Pocket change.........."
It's been a while since I heard anyone yearn for the good old days of incurious George W. Less than 1 million net jobs created in 8 (!) years. Leaving the economy as a train wreck. It takes years to recover from a mess of that magnitude. Republicans have acted as if the history of the world began in January 2009. George who? Don't forget the robust, vibrant economy that Obama inherited. Speaking of stock market performance over the past few years, I guess that was in anticipation of Trump.
"The vaccines work,” Trump said, adding that the people who “get very sick and go to the hospital” are unvaccinated.
“Look, the results of the vaccine are very good, and if you do get it, it’s a very minor form,” Trump continued. “People aren’t dying when they take the vaccine.”
Do your part, America 💉😷
My head hurts
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
"Have fun with your coins!" - David Hall
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood.....
Cheers, RickO
Carter left the country with inflation like you may not ever see again and his successor killed inflation first and then the economy improved. I remember lending investment grade companies short term money at 20.5% when Reagan first was elected. He did not cry of blame Carter even tough he could have with merit. He did was was necessary as he realized what is popular is not always right and what is right is not always popular. Under Obama the fed flooded the country with money via four rounds of quantitative easing only the have 0% interest rates and a stagnant economy. The only place to put it was the stock market and for that reason it rose.
Economics was never Obama's strong point you can tax your way into and remain in recession but never tax your way out. Reagan and trump get it. At this point since trump has been elected American investors and pension funds have seen a $3 trillion rise in value so the idea of less regulation and lower taxes has merit. In fact the Fed has already started to raise rates and the economy is improving. Try to find a reasonably priced house in a business friendly state. When the corporate and personal tax rates are cut to reasonable levels the U.S. can have economic growth of 4.0% again.
Don't blame me for the last eight years I voted not to hire Obama and to fire him.
As far a corporations sitting on the cash that is BS, provided a reasonable business environment exists. I think the tide is moving in that direction as evidenced by the Dow rising and the country getting closer to full employment (4.5%}. CEOs are measured on return on assets and sitting on billions of dollars is a good way to drag this number down. Increased dividends yes but more will go to domestic investment as along as the govt. and IRS stay out of the way. History has a way of repeating itself. The 1990s are a very good example. Funny how it happened when the GOP got control of congress as Newt was the defacto President.
I am in the process of having a house built and any debt will be fixed rate. I still say we will have three rate hikes this year, a over due correction for the Dow, but much more favorable long term growth. I saw this in the 1990s and it is shaping up the same way again.
Don't know how many remember but when Bush got elected and enacted tax cuts and credits as incentive to invest we had 52 months of unabated growth.