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Most accurate coin graders at shows
logger7
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I spoke with a dealer at a recent NY metro coin show who said he had spent over $20K in PCGS grading fees last year. He was very accurate on coins I showed him.
Who are the best graders among the coin dealers? Does it really come down to being an active submitter at the major grading services, and do you get rusty if you don't do regular submissions? And are there really sharp submitters who can grade to the 1/10 of a point?
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No one can grade to within 1/10th of a point because the standards are not that fine. What would that even mean?
I don't think you need to submit coins regularly although it would probably help. (If standards change significantly, then you would.) And you certainly need to view a lot of slabbed coins.
Depends on what you are slabbing
The best grader I know is Ron Drzewucki, Jr.
His father is no slouch either!
Those I have been impressed with are Vic Bozarth and Tommy Stepanski who are also quite generous with their help at shows so collectors know how coins will grade. As one leader at PCGS has said most dealers are not great graders but rather good businessmen.
The TPG's don't grade to within 1/10th of a MS point because of the system they use (ie 2-4 graders with a 5-30 second look). I would suggest that the very best graders can get it to within 2/10ths of a point. While most of us can see a coin as low end, average, and high end for the grade, those guys take it to 4-5 categories: go low end (65.0 to 65.2), low average (65.3 to 65.4), solid for grade (65.5 to 65.6), strong for the grade (65.7 to 65.8), and very high end/upgrade coin (65.9 to 66.0). Since the TPG's don't offer such grades, the best in the business use those skills to get upgrades, pluses, stickers, crosses, and plain old arbitrage by asking more money for a premium example.
Get 10 of the best graders together to review a coin they are all familiar with. Given unlimited time and discussion, their consensus should be accurate to within 2/10ths of a point for coins of the post-1810 period. Talk to someone like Jim Halperin who mastered grading decades ago. They can discuss with you how 2/10ths (or better) is possible. If you consider that an MS65 capped bust half type coin has a price range of low end ($3500-$4500) to high end ($7500-$10,000), you can easily assign 5 levels of quality in that wide range (ie $4000-4500, $5500, $6500, $7500, $9500). And I would expect the best graders in the biz to be able to accurately price a MS65 CBH in those price/grade increments. Even for a common coin like an MS65 1881-s Morgan there are easily discernible gradations of approx $115, $125, $140, $155, $175)....suggesting there is more going on here than just low end, average, and high end.
If the TPG business model was to grade with an accuracy of within 2/10ths of a point at the expense of not making any money, they could probably do it for a majority of US coinage in the MS64 to MS67 grades. Of course, when 99% of the collectors walking around can't grade any better than 3 ways at low end, average, high end, what's the value of a 5 way split that only the pro's can discern?
I've never seen a 35.2 grade before.
I already knew how to grade, but reading Jim Halperin's book when he was with NCI (?) about thirty years or so ago taught me a LOT.
Well, you just a collector is probably why. Welcome to 1816 I mean 2016 I think.
You probably have. You just called it low end VF35.
But I have seen numerous MS64.2, MS65.2, MS66.2 seated coins in my life (ie low end coins)....even if the TPG didn't label them as such. I suspect you've seen a low end VF35 bust or seated coin before (ie VF35.2). Just by being able to discern low end, average, and high end for a VF35 you are tacitly agreeing to a grading system of VF35.2, VF35.5, and VF35.7. Call it what you like. It's still the same. And if you can identify low end, high end, and average with consistency in your own field of expertise, I suspect the big boy graders can do it even better. We shouldn't confuse what we can do in our spare time with someone what has 10-40 years doing it full time at the highest of levels. And fwiw, maybe only 5-10% of all dealers are at those highest levels....1-2% of collectors....if that.
The dealers who are the best at grading are almost always ones that you've never heard of.
Roadrunner has summed it up nicely in his two posts. Grading is certainly a skill, and the more so since the skill does not involve standards. The opinion of graders is where the value comes in, the value we pay the TPG's to obtain. Even the TPG's do not rely on one opinion (2-4 graders appraise the coin). Extensive experience (years and thousands of coins) certainly develops a skill level - however, how often do we see - even here on the forum - disagreements with an assigned grade. Lack of true standards will always produce such discord. Cheers, RickO
Actually, if you're in the trade full time at the national level, you know who they are. When coin auctions were still primarily raw (1986-1998) you knew who the best graders were. They were typically the dealers buying at major auctions and getting a higher grade than what the majority were seeing. In my era I knew who they all were. And they were typically the same guys beating me out 80% of the time on the lots I was bidding on. A lot of those same people assisted with grading at the TPG's during the year.
The range of actual grades in VF35 holders is not VF35.0 to VF35.9, it is more like VF30 to XF40. That makes it much easier to determine low/mid/high quality for the grade. In order to make your assessment that the best graders can grade within 2/10th of a point, then you'd have to be able to get a group together and have all of them agree to a grade that accurate. If A few think an MS64.4 coin is actually MS66.6, then your claim is proven false. I don't think any grader will tell you that he agrees with another grader that often and at that level of granularity. And if both of them are experts, neither is "wrong" but they obviously both can't be right either.
I honestly doubt you could get 10 experts to agree within a single grade for most coins most of the time. And if the "right" grade is the average, and not all of them guessed that average, then guess what - those experts missed that coin by at least half a point.
5-30 seconds is not a lot of time to throw a dart.
You missed my point. You start with a coin slabbed in a VF35 holder. There are gradations with that assignment. The most commonly seen ones BY FAR are low end, average, higher end. That was to keep the argument simpler. The VF35 grade certainly covers from 35.00 to 35.99. We aren't given the option to call it as VF35, 36, 37, 38 and 39...though that can work just as well. Numbering is arbitrary. It's the gradations within any assigned grade that count.
I would also concede as you added that there are under-graded and over-graded coins as well (ie VF30 and XF40 coins sitting in VF35 holders). That means there are even more gradations to the assigned grade to account for obvious mis-grades. I would expect every seasoned numismatist here to be able to assign those 5 gradations to any VF35 or MS65 coin in their specialty (ie over-graded as VF35, low end, solid or average for grade, high end, under-graded and should go a grade higher). I would expect them to do this with 60-70% accuracy. I would expect the best pros to do it with 75-85% accuracy. Get top 10 pro's together and I expect them as a group to do better than just a single pro. They should agree to 60-75% of the time. If they don't, they probably aren't "THE" experts in that area. Keep looking.
I think the 2/3 rule works pretty good when it comes to expert graders. If they really disagreed most of the time, we couldn't even have a TPG grading system. If 2/3 of them agree, that's fine. The upper 1/6th and lower 1/6th will tend to cancel each other out. What we should want is the majority 2/3....which is what TPG grading is supposedly based on. If you're saying we can't send the same coin back and get a 65% repeat on that same grade over and again, then the TPG system wouldn't have survived 30 years as it has. If I picked the 10 best MS seated coin graders out there, I expect them to agree on the grade 6/10 to 7/10 of the times....toss out the highs and low and take the middle 2/3....or just average all 10 grades.
On a VF35 this one surprised me that CAC liked it: http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/QB8AAOSwCGVX-UHD/s-l1600.jpg http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/27EAAOSwLnBX5YaQ/s-l1600.jpg
One problem with grading is there are many coins on the edge, sliders, coins that meet most of the criteria for the next grade and can get it on a good day if all the stars align. Then you have coins netted down due to problems which could get seen differently next time around including no grades.
This.
I know a grader who worked for PCGS in the early days. He sets up at shows in the Northwest. He has a great eye but I hate to bug him about grades, I think i should know the grade especially before I buy. One thing he will not do is give you his opinion if you do not OWN the coin. He said that can cause problems with the seller and he doesn't like to do it.
Today the best graders are those who can predict the TPG grade of each service, submit accordingly, and maximize their return. In order to do this successfully they will have to be very active in the field and be able to detect subtle changes that take place at the TPGs, perhaps as the result of graders coming and going.
Charlie - vest pocket trader with lots of raw coins in 2x2. He says "don't use the numbers." If he says a coin Choice VF it is.
An interesting statement coming from NEN (agreeing that the best graders are people you don't know)....where dealer Tom Caldwell for decades was one of the top graders out there (ie it was well known).
ANACS and ICG are pretty good for me.
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I think what a few others are saying is that the "top graders you never heard of" are those who don't have a strong retail/online visibility but work mostly behind the scenes.
These are the guys who may do 300k at a show and not even have a table.
You know these guys, but the average to advanced collector/big show attendee may not, but the major players do.
Yeah, I agree that there are definitely some well known top graders.
On the other hand, every time I split a meal with The Colonel at a show (he's always on a diet it seems) he always introduces me to some top notch grader(s) who strictly share tables or walk the floors.
My comment is based off of my observation that when I ask other dealers/ex. graders (who have been in the industry for far longer than myself) about the people The Colonel introduces me to, they almost never know who those people are.
Warren
Logger7:
Roadrunner:
Well, yes and no, my impression is most most of the sharpest graders do not wish to grade to the tenth (0.1) or to the fifth (0.2) of a point, at least not consciously. They are figuring probabilities of upgrades, crossovers and stickers. It might make sense to pay a substantial premium for a coin that has a 30% chance of upgrading, or a 20% chance of upgrading within five re-submissions, depending upon market levels. Also, some of the sharpest graders are coin doctors.
There are some coins that can be graded more precisely than others. If a coin has some strong positive aspects and some harsh negative aspects, it is tricky to balance the positive and negative factors. I find it especially hard to grade such a coin to the tenth of a point, though I have often done so in my own notes. Coins that have mostly positive characteristics, even if not wonderful, are much better suited for decimal grading.
Pre-1917 coins that grade from 65 to 68 are more likely to be subject to decimal grading, from my perspective. Furthermore, decimal grading is useful even if a player is not perfectly consistent. If I grade a coin 65.6 one time and 66.1 the next time I see it, I will review my notes and try to figure how I weighed the factors involved. Certainly, 65.8 and 66.1 provide more information about my thinking to me than "65 and 66"! It is often true that if I grade a coin 67.2 and then see it again five years later, I will assign a grade from 67.1 to 67.3 the next time around, though this is not always the case.
Even a few of the most successful grading-wholesalers have told me that they do not grade every coin the same when they see it twice. They may grade a coin 65 one day and then 66 the next. When I research a relatively valuable coin for a client, I sometimes view it three times on three different days.
How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?
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I don't know who is the best grader but I do have an opinion on who gets the most upgrades: Jack Hertzburg
beauty is in the eye of the beholder: Subjective even with grading standards. The standards should get any decent grader within 1 point of correct grade. An expert grader will hit the nail on the head most of the time.
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Which is why I like to say you need approx 10 level graders of any series to get the coin basically right on that day. On any given day some of those graders could change their grade from the previous time. But all of them, and in the same direction? More than likely for anyone changing it downward, it will be compensated by another one changing it upwards. But as a group of 10, I don't expect their consensus to change much at all from day to day, at least by not more than a 1/10th to 2/10ths for MS/PF coins in the 63-67 bread and butter range for classic coins. For any coin I've gotten home to look at under my preferred lighting, I have never changed my opinion of it. It is what it is. It's not going to get better. If anything, it could a bit worse if I missed a rogue hairline or surface irregularity the first time around. I think when top graders state that your initial 10-30 second impression of a coin is most likely what you're going to stick with....they are correct.
Yeah, a lot of top graders in the 1980's and 1990's came out of Jim Halperin's "school of grading," otherwise known as New England Rare Coin Galleries. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who spent a couple of years there buying and selling coins that didn't become a top level "TPG quality" grader. Must have been a dozen of them. Mark Emory rarely stuck his head out to be seen, and then "disappeared" into Europe long ago. A great coin mind and grader. I've worked with 4-5 of the old NERCG's best over the years, and got some of the best inputs and results because of it. My only comment is that most of us from that era are 60-70+ years old now. Old eyes rarely grade as good as the 20-50 year old "youngsters."
Stealer:
Yes, this is so. It is also true that some of them are coin doctors.
The Specter of Coin Doctoring and The Survival of Great Coins
Even many of the top graders who are not coin doctors are wholesalers who are gaming the system. A distinction should be made between a top grader who is performing useful services for collectors and a top grader who is making money through upgrades, usually without helping anyone but himself.
DerryB:
With grade-inflation, standards have changed and the definitions of the standards have never been entirely explainable. Further, it is impossible to explain why some major league players bat over .300 and others bat less than .260. Should those who bat .250 just concentrate better and get more hits?
In any event, no one can bat 1.000 or even 0.900. More importantly, DerryB may be missing the point that there are dealers who make a living through upgrades. Regarding classic (pre-1934) U.S. coins, many of the same coins are submitted over and over again.
Above, I indicated that grading submissions are not so simple as to say that 'a nail is being hit on the head: Grading-wholesalers are figuring probabilities of upgrades, crossovers and stickers. It might make sense to pay a substantial premium for a coin that has a 30% chance of upgrading, or a 20% chance of upgrading within five re-submissions, depending upon market levels.
If someone figures that a coin in a 64 holder has a 50% chance of grading 65 within five submissions, the matter is not related to the metaphor of 'hitting a nail on the head.' There are variables; the nails are moving and changing shapes.
How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?
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One big issue is that each coin is unique, and there are a Lot of ways a coin can grade MS64, For example, (holding everything else, like strike and luster constant for now, and focusing on obverse marks) it can have a couple or few small bagmarks right in focal areas like the cheek or field in front of the face. Or it can have a medium bagmark or two on the neck or on the side of the date. Or it can have a rather heavy bagmark, well hidden in the hair. Ok, now add in all the other variables like strike, luster, toning, and the rest of the, and then do both sides and the rims and there are infinite permutations. Often, a coin will look like a "high end" 64 in the holder, but tilt it in the light, "oh, see that hairline?" Now it's a "low end" 64
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Or you could be back in 1987-1989 where a single facial hairline on a killer looking near gem Barber, Bust, or Morgan was automatic grounds for a 64 grade no matter how nice it was otherwise. Eye appeal hardly matter for those liner coins. Those were just called 64+ coins with 66/67 eye appeal. And they typically didn't sell for more than low end to average 65 money. These days, many of them are in 66 to 68 holders. Eye appeal trumps hairlines and marks these days.
Some dealers easily spend 10k+ in a show on grading.
So much of grading nowadays is understanding what the grading services are emphasizing, what they are flaws willing to forgive and what flaws they are tough on.
For example, our hosts are more forgiving of a "fresh" coin with original skin that may have a few extra bagmarks. Whereas they are much tougher on coins with wipes and less forgiving on a coin has some flaws IN ADDITION to being "unfresh" (i.e. Overdipped or lightly cleaned.)
I would also add that some tend over overanalyze and complicate the grading process. It is very subjective and even the sharpest graders see coins differently among themselves.
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NHRC. Mr. Mills, my thoughts exactly
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Tom Sullivan. Worked the counter buying for years there
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Spoke with a successful grader/submitter years ago. Besides having a great eye, somehow, he knew the graders schedules and would submit certain coins only when Grader X or Y was the finalizer that day/week.
Million dollar (or at least multiple thousand dollar) question: how do you know which grader is working when? Trade secret?
Many good and insightful comments. There are probably 50-100 dealers out there that could make a living from grading arbitrage. I know of some dealers who spend over 100K every month in grading fees. There are many people who can grade very well in their specialty series, or in a grade category (65-68+ for example). There are very few that can grade almost any series from say G04 to MS/PR 69 for classic coins. Those that have that kind of range make a very good living. The biggest problem for most in the business is finding those "PQ" coins that can actually make it to the next grade. We may look at 7500 lots in any given auction and only find 25 coins that have upgrade potential. I can assure you we are competing against the other 50-100 dealers who see the same thing. Then the other factor becomes VALUE. What's it worth in the next grade and how much are we wiling to pay for the "shot" of the upgrade? For a coin that is a "lock" upgrade most are willing to pay 90% of the upgrade value. That is why you see particular coins in auction go for "stupid" money. This is really no different to stocks where you need more winners than losers. The only way to see how good you are is to put your own money on the line. It is usually an expensive lesson, especially at the beginning. At the end of the day, the grading game is a small part of most dealer's overall profit. Buying and selling coins and making a spread is still the optimal business model today.
Well said.
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Everybody trying sell me a coin or buy one of mine cheap is an "expert grader" lol.
I was looking at a dealer's material yesterday, a well known currency dealer who also deals in coins. An 1856 gold dollar was totally original with some coppery original toning. He wanted between 62 and 63 money and he said he thought it could go 64. I looked at it at various angles and thought it could be limited to 62 due to some field chatter based on what I have seen before. It would be hard to get accurate assessment from another dealer on it there, though certainly within realm of possibility. But what would they say? "Geez, that's a nice gold dollar definitely Unc. could go 63 on a good day". The problem with that especially the smaller shows where there is not much business is the original dealer may get miffed. In a perfectly honest world that shouldn't be a problem. I also looked at some of L.I. numismatics SEGS coins which are always interesting but not crossable in money grades usually.
One has to learn to grade. I would ignore some sellers promotion.
Is the purpose of this thread avoid dealers who can grade (money already wrung out of coins and no pickups) or do business with ones who can. I frankly could care less about their grading skills - I look at the coin and can grade but deal has to be right.
Frankly might want avoid ones who can grade - coins upgraded to stratosphere and money wrung out of them.
I wouldn't necessarily avoid them when selling as they are often the strongest and fastest buyers, knowing exactly what they can do with your coins. Anytime I wanted a little more for something because it was nice or a potential upgrade I sought those dealers out. For those dealers that were not so sharp at grading, I'd get hems and haws, and "could you do better?", would you mind if I showed these to dealer XXX?, etc. My experiences were much better with the best grading dealers. Invariably, they got >90% of my sales even if buying from them was not likely to occur. I gave up twisting the arms of my local dealers and shops to sell them coins at good prices, where they should make decent money. It was far simpler to ask even more money, and get it quicker from the better grading dealers.
CNN:
This thread is not about all the coin dealers in the U.S. It seems to be about the sharpest graders of pre-1934, ms and Proof coins. For "50-100 dealers," CNN's numbers, almost all of their profits come from upgrades, and some of them are coin doctors. They ignore "the optimal business model."
As for auction lot viewing, CNN's implication that all the grading-wholesalers identify the same few dozen coins in each auction is not accurate, according to my experiences and research. Grading-wholesalers tend to hone in on different coins. CNN is making it sound like most grading-wholesalers are seeing coins the same way. It is not unusual for one grading-wholesaler to find a coin to be a candidate for an upgrade, while other wholesalers dismiss that particular coin. Like graders at TPGs, grading-wholesalers tend to spend a few seconds on each coin. Moreover, more than a few grading-wholesalers think about probabilities and 'playing the game.' A pitcher knows that not all batters will swing at the same pitches, and not all grading-wholesalers will 'take a shot' with the same coins.
As Roadrunner implies in this thread, it is questionable as to whether grading-wholesalers are honestly or thoroughly grading the coins in each case. They are looking for grading-profits, not seeking true understandings of individual coins.
Even some of those grading-wholesalers who are not coin doctors are gaming the system. There are some coins that are more likely to be accidentally overgraded at TPGs than others. The $100k per month amount that is cited by CNN, who would know, is evidence that supports my points that many of the same classic (pre-1934) U.S. coins have each been submitted multiple times.
How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?
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Analyst... Re-read the OPs original posting. Where are you reading that the OP only wants to discuss 1934 and earlier coins? Wondercoin.
When I was covering major auctions for upgrades and deals from 1983-1990, my experiences were that the same 1-2 dozen people were usually on the same under-graded or overlooked coins as I was on. It was just a matter of who assigned the higher odds of an upgrade and up to what price could they go up to and still profit? Invariably when I went after something in the 1988-1990 major coin auctions, I had to deal with Martin Paul on half the lots. And if he wasn't there, then I can list one of the next top 6-12 wholesalers who were in it against me. At the Norweb sales, the familiar faces of either Rick Sear, Bill Nagle, Eric Streiner, Jay Miller, and Martin Paul were up against me on nearly every lot I went after. Maybe it's different today. Back then, the gene pool of competition was invariably the same guys at every auction. And there weren't that many of them...certainly not 50-100. There were typically a dozen or two potential rips in choice/gem type as the sale loomed. Those were all typically picked out by this same group. Literally nothing slipped through.
When I returned to the coin auctions in 2002 it hadn't really changed. Nagle, Sear, Avena, O'Connor, and others were the same heads I butted up against for the next few years. Maybe it was just a coincidence that in both eras, there were similar groups of dealers who saw Bust, Seated, and Barber coins the same way I did. I do tend to think that most of these guys saw the coins similarly. In essence, they all worked together over the years in trades and deals, with their skills rubbing off on the next guy. It's not a surprise they would sort of "train" themselves to see things somewhat the same.
Proper magnification, lighting, a dark room, and the experience of an old timer who is not color blind is **the great equalizer.
**
Simple. If you see the guys at the show, they are not in the grading room at home. You can also bet that the "top Guns" or company owners make sure the grades of expensive coins are correct. One TPG told me that while working after hours with the "boss" he offered to finish up the large order so the owner of the company could go home. He was told something like "That's ok, these have to be correct."
I wonder how the graders from ICG and ANACS who give free opinions at shows don't get grief!