If a large scale collector suddenly either stopped or sold....

topstuf

How much would the coin market be affected?

I used to deal in antique toys.
A local guy who collected toys won the lottery.
He started buying everything he wanted.

Then stopped. (due mostly to being fleeced by vultures....but that's irrelevant)

Anyhow, when he started, he took the entire market of POPULAR antique toys up about 30-40% in a matter of roughly 4-6 months.

When he stopped, the market stagnated for a while and then began a monumental DROP!

Think coins would also be affected if some large collectors....just...QUIT?

???????????????

Walkerfan

No, I think that a large amount of fresh material would actually stimulate the market for whatever series was being collected and now sold.

mt_msla

I agree with @Walkerfan because there is (I am guessing) a larger market of numismatists than toy collectors.

BTW - I searched to see if there were a similar word for "toy collectors" as there are for "coin collectors" .... couldn't find anything. Found this thread though:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/archive/index.php/t-392698.html

291fifth

The coin market is large enough and diverse enough that the departure of one major player would not cause market devastation. However, some declines would take place in the specialties he was involved in. The thinner the participation in the specialty, the larger the decline.

ms70

@291fifth said:
The coin market is large enough and diverse enough that the departure of one major player would not cause market devastation. However, some declines would take place in the specialties he was involved in. The thinner the participation in the specialty, the larger the decline.

This was exactly my thought. I will click the agree button to express my agreement.

crazyhounddog

Well, there is a LOT of ungraded coins from old school collectors that have not hit the market yet. With that said I feel even that will not really effect the value of "Most" collections. Of course if some VERY rare coins were to suddenly appear and get graded higher than the top coin of that date and series, that will effect "That" coin. I think the volume of raw coins yet to be graded will not do anything at all in the most part.

Lakesammman

I think if a Simpson for example sold his patterns it would be great for that segment of collecting. Many of us would start collecting again.

Pattern collecting is now dead since he can't be outbid.

jesbroken

If, indeed, a large scale collector who had a large collection of key coin rolls, decided to quit and sell all, it would greatly affect that coin series' market value, not just the coin's value. From reading many previous posts here, I understand that there are many such collectors, some who gently feed the market slowly so as not to create panic. Do not know this for sure, but if so, I can see it greatly affecting the market for how many ever series such key coin rolls exist. I most certainly believe the hobby would survive but with some changes.
Jim

roadrunner

Gene Gardner have the best accumulation by far of choice and gem better date seated coins ever assembled. A lot of the prices in this material rose nicely from 1997 to 2014 because of him and a few others. After his collection sold, a number of big ticket items fell 30-40% from the time he acquired them. Look at how the MS 67 1840-0 25c dropped from $329K down to around $200K. It had plenty of company. It only takes one less bidder. A lot of better date unc seated coins have dropped considerably in price since Gene sold his collection. In 2008-2009 we also had 2-3 of the other big time seated players drop out. Some key date coins dropped 60% in price (ie 1852-0 quarter in MS63 from $125K to $50K). The unc 1867 quarters were pushed way up in price due to only a couple of players. They have returned to earth once again.

If I had to come up with a number for how much the choice/gem better date seated market has dropped since Gene sold out.....it would be a 15-25% decline. Some of the finest known pop tops have held their ground ok. The drop in the condition census of the top 3-10 coins is probably where the hurt is the biggest. If there are only a couple to a half a dozen major players building top dated sets, it makes a huge difference when one of them leaves. Over the past 7 years I think 1/2 to 2/3 of them have left. I don't know if new blood has stepped in since. While Gene could only buy 1-3 coins of each date/mint for his set(s), the lift that gave the entire seated market was substantial....far more than just Gene's set demand. It was essentially a bid of confidence under the entire seated market. There's never been any force like Gene in the seated market before.

ricko

@roadrunner, you make an excellent point....a major collector can impact a series or segment of the coin market, however, the overall market is too large and varied to be affected by any one participant. Cheers, RickO

giorgio11

Actually @roadrunner I completely agree with you but would point out that for some of the more common dates Gene had four, five, or even six examples as he acquired nicer pieces over the years. Half dimes: four 1859, four 1860-O, four 1863-S. Dimes: five 1856 counting Small Date and Large Date; four 1873 No Arrows Open 3; four 1856 proof Seated dimes; four proof 1861 Seated dimes. Quarters: five 1837s from MS64 to MS66; four 1841s including a DDR; four 1857-O, all MS63-MS64; four 1858s from MS65 to MS67*; six 1867s from AU55 to MS64; seven proof 1873 quarters from PR66-PR68, including three NA and four Arrows. Half Dollars: four 1858s from MS62-MS66; three each of several proof dates (1865, 1877, 1878). Gene had two or three of most Seated issues except for the fabulous rarities, and usually in Mint State. That was a mighty strong bid supporting the entire Seated market.

Kind Regards,

George

roadrunner

Thanks for clarifying that Giorgio11. My discussion was directed towards the condition census level where Gene's activities certainly moved the market for better dates. Most of Gene's gem/superb condition dupes are in the more common dates where they are basically type coins. Those don't really affect the seated pop top market very much. Nor could he affect "type coin" prices....that's too big a market. He did love 1867 Philly quarters and he and Bill Nagle both pushed the prices of that date much higher. I recall when I ran into Bill last around 2008 he was trying to sell me an 1867 quarter. They are now a lot lower than they were from 2008-2015. We both agree that for better dates in or near condition census he typically had 1-3 of those.

erwindoc

Saw something like this when several of the Roosevelt registry players sold out. The competition drove up prices to get the best for their respective sets. When their sets were completed and sold, demand fell and so have prices.