Current NGC holders - poll

dib

For coins that reside in NGC's current generation holder, on average how often do you agree with the grade given? My goal is not to stir up anything between NGC and PCGS; I'm just looking for honest answers from each individual who takes part in the poll. Thank you.

jdimmick

I voted in poll, but the biggest problem I see is where the grade counts the most. On some coins less than 10% from one grade to the other is not a big deal, but you take a coin where the difference from say an Au-55 vs a au50 is huge, the NGC 55 may or may not be a true pcgs 55. I personally don't need the grading service to tell me what grade a coin is or is not, I can usually determine it on my own, and whether its nice or marginal. However , in order to sell it into the market, it has to be graded by one of the major companies. For a coin to reside in my personal collection, it has to be all there and then some or I will not keep it.

But as far as the business , I see coins often that are liberally graded or marginal (both services) , and people expect you to pay up because of the stated grade and you just cant because they truly don't know what a nice coin or correctly graded coin supposed to look like.

ricko

I find them to be accurate.... There is.....at least I perceive it to be...more mythology than fact to opinions about the difference in grade accuracy between TPG's. Certainly some have deep set feelings here.... however, dispassionate judgement would show that inaccuracies exist in each area. Greading is, after all, an opinion - not a science. Cheers, RickO

oih82w8

I picked up a few ngc holders and crossed them, nice looking coins, and four of five grade a grade or two lower in PCGS holders.

keets

this Poll and any Poll that asks a similar question is based on the fact that those replying know how to accurately grade. in that regard it is flawed. I believe that members(myself included) misjudge their own ability to accurately grade. with the answers in this Poll as it's structured I accept that those at the top and bottom probably are the least competent coin graders, while those in the middle are probably the more reliable.

johnny9434

90% of the time works for me. its all an opinion in any case

roadrunner

Considering that the TPG's grading accuracy/repeatability is only 60-80% on average (classic coins), I don't see how anyone could choose a number higher than this, unless maybe you're looking at modern coins with grades of 68-70.

DollarAfterDollar

I agree about 80% of the time. I send in dollars for encapsulation most often and they are harder on dollars than PCGS.



Then again, I don't always agree with PCGS.

logger7

I can see why they graded as they did afterwards usually except for details results on "cleaning" when it is very hard to see. PCGS holders are better aesthetically imho, the see through, etc., the original brains behind that was a genius.

stevepk

NGC has a reputation for giving out more super-high grades than PCGS, but the coins I collect don't come in super-high grades, so I really don't care. For those who do collect super-high graded coins, I'm pretty sure those are collectors of modern material. I'm not much of a collector of modern coins in MS-69 holders anyway.

I think it is foolish to ignore coins in NGC holders. Slabbed coins at a coin show are about 40% NGC, 40% PCGS, and 20% ANACS or IGC. If you focus only on PCGS graded coins, you are considering only about 40% of the slabbed material at any show. This is fine if you collect something extremely common, but if you are looking for something a bit more scarce you cannot afford to exclude a coin simply because of the holder. There have been many times I have found NGC graded coins that looked nicer than PCGS counterparts and vise-versa. I always choose the best coin for the money and focus very little on whether it is in a PCGS versus NGC holder. I honestly think the whole PCGS / NGC debate is stupid. Sometimes you will find the nicer coin is in a PCGS holder and sometimes you will find the nicer coin is in the NGC holder. They are both great sources for authentication and grading.

I disagree on assigned grades equally between PCGS and NGC.

Jinx86

Ive had issues with NGC MS graded Bust Halves. I have played it safe and bought the last two back a grade. Both came back from PCGS 1 grade back.

I do have one MS 67 Barber Dime in NGC holder that I 100% agree with.

Cougar1978

I price all my major TPG coins the same (ANACS, ICG, PCGS, NGC) unless TPG price (NGC and PCGS coins) > CW. In some instances the coin so PQ that it is priced higher than a price guide at cost plus. I do not buy coins from TPG's other than the 4 above.

I am not a holder game or sticker hobbyist. I have seen coins I both like and dislike in holders of both. Since I pick up nice coins, its a moot issue for me.

I am not someone to disagree with the TPG grade (just crack and submit for higher grade if I really in truly feel its under graded) rather I am not a buyer of coins I find unattractive. I don't believe in making generalizations either on one TPG vs another. Individuals may have opinions about a certain series they specialize in and its their hobby, their call on their material.

Once at a show a customer told a dealer next to me when quoted a price on an ICG Coin: "Don't you discount ICG?" The dealer said "There is no reason why I should, its a PQ Gem BU MS65. Do you expect a new Chevy sb discounted bc it came from a smaller dealership - get outta here (laughing)?"

roadrunner

Sometimes you will find the nicer coin is in a PCGS holder and sometimes you will find the nicer coin is in the NGC holder....



But, "sometimes" doesn't mean 50-50. Considering that PCGS coins, in the same holder, of the exact same quality, fetch 5-20% more than NGC coins, there is a market force in play to transfer those coins into PCGS holders. A lot depends on what part of the market too. If we're talking MS65 capped bust halves, the odds of finding a nicer or even equivalent quality NGC coin is less than 40%. I'd take my odds with PCGS where a MS65 CBH probably costs 50-75% more than a typical NGC MS65. If only considering CAC'd MS65 bust halves, it may indeed be as high as 40-45%. Still, there is incentive to get those CAC'd NGC coins into PCGS holders too....as they're worth more, esp. in REG sets. Holder bias makes most buyers grade a tad tougher on anything in a non-PCGS holder. That's managing market risk.



Once at a show a customer told a dealer next to me when quoted a price on an ICG Coin: "Don't you discount ICG?" The dealer said "There is no reason why I should, its a PQ Gem BU MS65. Do you expect a new Chevy sb discounted bc it came from a smaller dealership - get outta here (laughing)?"



That's a new car analogy where coins are definitely "used" or no longer at the grade they left the dies at. 116-226 years of collectors handling 19th century type coins doesn't make them "new" any longer. New cars driven off the lot depreciate 10-20% immediately and they really are still brand new. That doesn't happen to coins. So let's do this with a "used car" dealer analogy. And, yes, I do expect a car's price to be discounted when buying from a used car dealer vs. a new car dealership.



Frankly, if a dealer was looking for PCGS money on a non-PCGS coin, and it was a significant difference (like 5-20%) I'd be laughing at them. If it's truly a gem PQ MS65 ICG coin...then get it in PCGS plastic. I'd never be dumb enough to ask top PCGS dollar for anything but a PCGS coin. If sellers can buffalo retail customers into doing that.....more power to you. I've always discounted ICG, NGC, and ANACS coin prices. Except for the most generic of coins such as common MS64 Morgan/Peace dollars, the equivalent quality PCGS coin will fetch more. Don't like that? Then crack them out and get 'em reholdered. The price difference will always be at least the cost to cross/reholder into PCGS. In most cases it's a lot more than that.

JeffMTampa

I picked 90% because there was no option for 95%. I agree with the grade on the holder about 95% of the time for both NGC and PCGS. Both over and under grade. Mistakes happen.



The two companies have slightly different standards on how to prioritize "defects" in determining the grade (wear, marks, luster, etc.), but I find they're both quite consistent.



I find coins in the older NGC holders (without the prongs) have a tendency to be over graded, however.

CoinPhysicist

Originally posted by: roadrunner

.... there is a market force in play to transfer those coins into PCGS holders.

I don't really want to jump into this debate but I just want to say 1 thing: Market forces aren't always rational and based in fact. For example, there is no rational reason for Tesla to have a near $30B market cap, but it does. Many stock market moves are not rational either. Market forces can be based in myth and/or feelings alone with not a shred of rationalness.



Not saying that the market forces here that you describe are rational or aren't. But something to at least consider. Lots of things are based in feelings.

coinkat

I am not voting mainly because this is the type of questioning that leads to generalizations that focus on labels instead of coins.

DIMEMAN

I voted less than 50%. I base this on the fact that I experience less than 10% crossover at same grade .....ngc to PCGS,

roadrunner

The 2 major TPG's can have significant grading differences....but both can still grade consistent to their own standards. Some examples of the differences:



Among over 9,000 seated half PCGS proofs and 7100 NGC proofs, PCGS grades them PF65 44% of the time vs. 56% for NGC. And that doesn't account for the fact that PCGS has seen 27% more coins. I'll just assume they are equal. At the proof 67 level the split is 29% PCGS and 71% NGC. At that grade level they "both" can't be getting it 80-95% right. Someone is more right than the other. The price guides confirm that.



Among 57,471 PCGS early halves and 46,300 NGC examples (1794-1839) here are the splits. Again, more coins submitted to PCGS.



MS65 40% PCGS 60% NGC (524 PCGS and 781 NGC)

MS66 35.5% PCGS 64.5% NGC (153 PCGS and 278 NGC)

MS67 36% PCGS 64% NGC (28 PCGS and 49 NGC)



Clearly, what area and grade of the market make a huge difference. In very common coins that make up the bulk of the pops reports, the splits aren't near as wide. The "market force" to force the solid for the grade NGC coins into PCGS holders is the most simple of all....profit, and increased liquidity. The market is voting with dollars....not opinions. I base this on my own buying and selling experiences of the past 15 years. If you don't routinely sell anything, that makes it more challenging to see market differences.



As a challenge..... show me some areas of MS/PF 61-69 classic coins (1793-1933) where the percentages are reversed and NGC has the smallest percentage in grade. The last time I did such a comparison (1990's), I could only only find a single type coin in a single grade where NGC had a much lower % than PCGS....and that was in MS66 Trade Dollars. And curiously that still holds today with only 38 NGC MS66 trade dollars vs. 61 PCGS. The same is true at MS67 with 2 NGC and 8 PCGS. In MS65 they are nearly identical at 171/174. I have no idea why the NGC numbers in 66/67 are so low....unless the good ones were crossed over. This is a short set unlike seated or bust halves. Could be a REG set issue. I suspect the PCGS coins still bring a lot more money.

coinkat

And how do the crack outs and resubmissions and even cross overs effect this?

Seems there is more of interest in numbers without the actuarial integrity to substantiate numbers even before we even get to the real question of what the coins even look like. I unable to articulate how the question and the poll benefits numismatics.

roadrunner

Originally posted by: coinkat

And how do the crack outs and resubmissions and even cross overs effect this?



Seems there is more of interest in numbers without the actuarial integrity to substantiate numbers even before we even get to the real question of what the coins even look like. I unable to articulate how the question and the poll benefits numismatics.

It doesn't really matter how a coin ends up with a grade. That's still a grading event. And either you agree with the current holder a coin is in, or you don't. I don't consider a crossover a grading event unless the holder changes. A crossover attempt that is returned is a grading non-event. The more crack outs, resubmissions, etc. there are, the more chances for you to agree or disagree with a current grade.

CoinPhysicist

I agree with coinkat and was actually going to mention cross overs and resubmissions/crack outs myself. Because no one knows this data fully there is a lot of mental gymnastics and feelings going on.

coinkat

I suppose reasonable minds can differ on this and I will leave it at that...

panexpoguy

The poll question cannot be accurately answered because bias has been introduced with the content of the question. People believe that they know whether or not they agree with the grades but they do not evaluate the grade of a coin until after they know what TPG graded and that introduces bias.

To really evaluate grade agreement you would need to take a number of coins in current NGC holders, crack them out, and have the individual grade each coin without knowing if it had ever been graded, or by whom. Since I have begun cracking out all of the NGC coins that I want to cross to PCGS, a very high percentage cross at grade. But even this process has a bias because I dont just buy the first example of a coin I need. I might look at dozens and dozens before I pick one. So the PCGS graders are not seeing a pure sample of NGC coins.

One might hypothesize that collectors with some level of grading competence who have reviewed many graded examples of a series in which they are knowledgable, would select a high percentage of 'strong for the grade' examples to crossover, leading to a high success rate.

Bob1951

In the series I collect-circulated seated and bust coins, I find NGC to be very accurate. One has to study a lot of coins to know for sure. As others have stated, the PCGS coins will usually bring more money. This is due to reputation. When it comes down to brass tacks, my opinion is the one that counts. If i find the right coin I will buy it no matter what the holder says, or even raw. Seems like in MS grades PCGS is tougher on the higher grades. I believe that on NGC grades 65 or higher, a lot of them will not cross. If I can look at an NGC MS67 coin and compare it to a PCGS MS67 coin and see the same grade then and only than would I take the gamble to try to get it in a PCGS holder. JMHO.



edited to add:

Sorry I did not see this part of your question when I answered.



" NGC's current generation holder"



I don't think that I have any current generation holders.





Bob

Justacommeman

I just went 13/16 on a NGC to PCGS crossover on coins I have had for quite awhile. I'm kind of picky in my main series in gem mint plus. I have another submission in I won't do as well in as PCGS and NGC have different standards in high grades in high grade Walkers.



mark

asheland

Originally posted by: johnny9434
90% of the time works for me. its all an opinion in any case

+1

asheland

Originally posted by: stevepk
NGC has a reputation for giving out more super-high grades than PCGS, but the coins I collect don't come in super-high grades, so I really don't care. For those who do collect super-high graded coins, I'm pretty sure those are collectors of modern material. I'm not much of a collector of modern coins in MS-69 holders anyway.

I think it is foolish to ignore coins in NGC holders. Slabbed coins at a coin show are about 40% NGC, 40% PCGS, and 20% ANACS or IGC. If you focus only on PCGS graded coins, you are considering only about 40% of the slabbed material at any show. This is fine if you collect something extremely common, but if you are looking for something a bit more scarce you cannot afford to exclude a coin simply because of the holder. There have been many times I have found NGC graded coins that looked nicer than PCGS counterparts and vise-versa. I always choose the best coin for the money and focus very little on whether it is in a PCGS versus NGC holder. I honestly think the whole PCGS / NGC debate is stupid. Sometimes you will find the nicer coin is in a PCGS holder and sometimes you will find the nicer coin is in the NGC holder. They are both great sources for authentication and grading.

I disagree on assigned grades equally between PCGS and NGC.

Well said!

Wabbit2313

Originally posted by: Justacommeman

I just went 13/16 on a NGC to PCGS crossover on coins I have had for quite awhile. I'm kind of picky in my main series in gem mint plus. I have another submission in I won't do as well in as PCGS and NGC have different standards in high grades in high grade Walkers.



mark

I just had 66 and a 66+ nice Walkers cross. They did have CAC stickers though. I will be interested to see your results on those!

amwldcoin

Now do the same poll with PCGS!

roadrunner

Originally posted by: Justacommeman

I just went 13/16 on a NGC to PCGS crossover on coins I have had for quite awhile. I'm kind of picky in my main series in gem mint plus. I have another submission in I won't do as well in as PCGS and NGC have different standards in high grades in high grade Walkers.



mark

Those are superb results MJ, far, far above the norm. Almost insane if you ask me. And no doubt due to your own very tight standards.



All of my very best gem MS seated/bust/Barber coins went for crosses over the years, some multiple times. I NEVER got 1 cross on approx 36 total attempts. When CAC came along, they ended up stickering the majority of the coins I had sent in for crosses. Today, quite a few of my "failed" crosses are now in higher graded PCGS holders. I've never crossed a 66/67 NGC seated, bust, Barber coin, including CAC'd examples I consider that to be almost the Holy Grail of numismatics. Maybe someday I'll get one. I figured I'd have a better chance of getting an NGC MS67 to go to NGC MS68 vs. getting a MS67 cross. When my former NGC MS67 CAC no motto half ends up in a PCGS 67 holder, I'll have a good story to tell. 5 cross attempts didn't get it done.



Ironically, I've crossed MS65 ANACS type coins. And I'm batting 100% (3 for 3) on rattler/ogh upgrades for MS65 seated halves (to MS66s). Those were coins I bought out of major auction in 2002. Someday, I'll learn how to grade coins through NGC plastic.

Justacommeman

Originally posted by: Wabbit2313

Originally posted by: Justacommeman

I just went 13/16 on a NGC to PCGS crossover on coins I have had for quite awhile. I'm kind of picky in my main series in gem mint plus. I have another submission in I won't do as well in as PCGS and NGC have different standards in high grades in high grade Walkers.



mark

I just had 66 and a 66+ nice Walkers cross. They did have CAC stickers though. I will be interested to see your results on those!

It's the 67's that will have trouble crossing me thinks.



mark

MrEureka

Originally posted by: roadrunner
Considering that the TPG's grading accuracy/repeatability is only 60-80% on average (classic coins), I don't see how anyone could choose a number higher than this, unless maybe you're looking at modern coins with grades of 68-70.

I don't know where you get the 60-80% number, but I don't buy it.

FWIW, when I was briefly at PCGS, long ago, I remember individual graders getting reports on their level of grading accuracy. (Accuracy was defined as matching the final grade.) IIRC, graders scored from the high 70's to the mid 80's. And I have no doubt that the consensus and final grades were more qualified and more accurate on average, because individuals are more likely than groups to completely miss a problem or blunder in some other way. (The way a TPG can test this theory is to run the same coins through the grading process multiple times. Although I don't know if PCGS did this, I'd be surprised if they didn't.)

The bottom line is that TPG accuracy is probably more like 90% or higher on average. And if I had to guess, I'd guess that Classics are about 85% and Moderns more like 95%.

On the other hand, 60-80% is probably right for certain subsets of Classics, especially those that often come with minor problems that require a degree of "net grading".