Is Supercoin Right? NGC-MS68 worth PCGS-MS67
wondercoin
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I thought this was worthy of its separate thread and not to continue it on my offering for the NGC-MS68RD 1950(s) cent, where it originated.
Supercoin essentially states that the UNIQUE FOR BOTH GRADING SERVICES POP 1/0 1950(s) LINCOLN CENT grading NGC-MS68RD should simply be priced as a PCGS-MS67RD coin or perhaps "add 30%" to the PCGS undergrade. I personally believe that notion is rediculous. Before I address my personal feelings on the subject, what do you think? Is Supercoin right? Wondercoin.
Supercoin essentially states that the UNIQUE FOR BOTH GRADING SERVICES POP 1/0 1950(s) LINCOLN CENT grading NGC-MS68RD should simply be priced as a PCGS-MS67RD coin or perhaps "add 30%" to the PCGS undergrade. I personally believe that notion is rediculous. Before I address my personal feelings on the subject, what do you think? Is Supercoin right? Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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Perhaps what's actually foolish is the 2000% premium for a 68 over a 67... when (even assuming perfectly consistent grading) the difference is an aribitrary dividing line between two virtually indistinguishable 67/68 borderline coins.
Another thread can be reserved for the question whether the 10x jump between grades is justified. Fair enough? Wondercoin.
As you well know,the coin is what determines value.The holder doesn't.Some NGC MS68's would bring the same money as PCGS MS68's and some wouldn't.The buyer,if he knew the series would decide if it was worth the price.Most would say NGC is 1/2 a grade lower than PCGS.So ultimately it is the buyer that makes the determination.
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
No can do. You're using the PCGS MS68 price to justify your NGC MS68 price (in the other thread), if you want to use that as a basis you've got to be prepared to justify it.
Lemme put it in pictures... give me a minute.
Trying to now argue that the PCGS price is too high is PURE backpeddling. I haven't sold a PCGS-MS68RD Lincoln in ages - whatever the current price is for a PCGS-MS68RD is what it is. I have no control over that. YOU said an NGC-MS68 should basically be priced as a PCGS-MS67 - it is to that point that I say "BS" Wondercoin
And so I'm tellin' ya.
Here's a typical grade vs. price graph for a common-date condition-rare coin in a PCGS holder:
So if your NGC coin is a PCGS MS67.7, you can see that you miss the big money. The only way it gets into the big money is if someone feels it's a crackout candidate.
But, foul! you cry, the price curve should look more like this, with prices going up in proportion to quality:
And thus your MS67.7 should be worth good money.
That graph is indeed a more sensible shape, but bear in mind the differences between these top grades are slight, and as such that $2000 price would be very unlikely in the "raw" world. It's that PCGS MS68 label that exaggerates the difference.
So, if we were truly buying the coin, not the holder, the graph would be flatter, but more like this:
And as such, your MS67.7 is again worth a modest premium.
So... live by the PCGS, die by the PCGS*.
* Professional Coin Grading Sword
Without having seen the coin, if it crosses at MS68 then the question is mute. Unless I am in love with the coin I would never pay the same money for an NGC coin graded the same as PCGS. Crackouts and crossovers consistantly come back lower on the NGC coins, at least with the ones I have worked with. Its sad because there are a lot of fine coins in NGC slabs. I also have PCGS coins that are overgraded but these seem to be exceptions.
I know if I were after this coin I would probably take at least 30% of the price that I would I would pay for the same grade coin in a PCGS holder regardless of the population. How many times do I have to get kicked in the head before I learn?
I wonder what would happen if I were to crack out a coin that PCGS has down graded and have it sent back to NGC. Just to see if NGC grades it the same as before?
A big problem with your analysis is you seem to be basing a value on an NGC coin as a consquence of wheher the coin is a "PCGS-MS67.7" or a higher number such as MS67.9. Yet, you fail to acknowledge that the PCGS-MS67.7 could be a PCGS-MS68 five years from now, OR FIVE YEARS AGO-correct?!!! Hence, even if somehow you could prove that my NGC-MS68 cent is only a PCGS-MS67.7 TODAY (a grade by the way I disagree with), you still have not addressed whether my Lincoln COULD HAVE BEEN A PCGS-MS68RD AT THE TIME IT WAS ENCAPSULATED BY NGC MANY YEARS AGO AS AN MS68RD UNDER THAT GRADING STANDARD IN EFFECT THE DAY MY LINCOLN WAS GRADED MS68 BY NGC (see TDN's detailed analysis on this point). And, you must agree that the world does not center around the PCGS grading standard in effect on a given day - a day you pick randomly so as to assure an NGC coin will not cross!!
So, basically your charts are worthless unless you can conceed that your charts are valid for simply a tiny time period over a much larger grading scene and agree that with the changes in grading standards, a high end for the grade coin (say MS67.7 or better) can be MS68 on another day anyway. Hence, back to my point - surely this unique pop 1/0 Lincoln for either service should command 1/3 the PCGS price (and for that matter, a whole lot more!!) Wondercoin
PS: Monsta : How was my counter?
Perot would be darn proud of your charts.
What you say makes sense (doesn't it always) and I guess Mitch's point is buying the coin not the holder. In my mind, if it was worthy of a MS68 in PCGS, it should have already been in a PCGS holder. Given the draw, Don wins ... the buyer will determine the final price for this one.
Chris
P.S. Did we have a picture of this coin ?? Further grading and critiquing on this board may help see how close to a PCGS MS68 this coin really is.
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
From other thread:
Your coin isn't worth 30% of what it would be in a PCGS 68 holder -- not because it's not a nice coin -- but because a PCGS 68 price is priced so extraordinarily high.
Here's my point, without graphs:
Huge prices for common-date condition-rarities are currently found only in PCGS holders. If your coin won't make it into the magic PCGS holder, you're screwed. Close doesn't count. Sensible or not, that's the rule of the market right now.
And obviously, this coin won't make it into a PCGS 68 holder (today), or the very-experienced and market-savvy Wondercoin would have put it there and immediately sold it for a huge profit.
Gotta go with Supercoin on this one an NGC in MS68 is a PCGS MS67 no matter how you try to paint the pitcure. SORRY CHARLIE
PCGS THE ONLY WAY TO GO
Ed
Thanks for the pix (I had not gone back to the other post since they were added). Interestingly enough, I did not see anyone say MS68 or not (yet).
Upon further review, it is a tough one to judge. Excluding all of the usual disclaimers ... very high end MS67 to say the least (even in PCGS plastic). Closer/further review and some comparisons are required for the MS68 grade ...
Chris
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
NGC to PCGS Crossovers and Crackouts
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
It seems to me that we are trying to force a square peg into a round hole. The price guides require a standard to be useful, yet that standard is constantly changing and being interpreted differently by two fairly well respected companies. What a mess!
It used to be that you could safely assume that a basic NGC coin was about half a grade lower than a basic PCGS coin. The NGC coin sold at a slight discount to market guide price and the PCGS coin sold at or slightly above the market guide price. This served us well, even as NGC and PCGS slightly loosened standards in the latter half of the 90's prospering on the crackout game.
Then NGC decided that they'd loosened too much, for whatever reason, and tightened up just a bit and also at the same time tightened their distribution around the proper grade (stopped being so sloppy). The market responded by rewarding NGC coins to the point that their average price realized approached PCGS on the graysheet summary. Well, that did it! PCGS basically slammed the barn door shut in response - tightened up far past the old half a grade standard. I don't believe that they've tightened their distribution, but they sure as heck have tightened their grading and their crossovers. Getting a grade beyond MS/PF66 in classic coins is darn near impossible - whatever the merits of the coin!
So now we have a drastic change in grading standards - but as yet no change in prices. How the heck do you assign a price to the coin? At what standard is the price valid? Is NGC still the standard for the price guides at some percentage (85, 90 or 100%??)? Then do you grade a PCGS coin by NGC's standards to get the value for the PCGS coin? Or do you flatly state that "NGC overgrades" (even tho it's PCGS that has dramatically changed standards recently) and say that PCGS is the price standard and that NGC coins will only sell at a huge discount. The problem with this is that the price guides haven't changed but PCGS's standards sure have! How can the same coin be worth half today of what it was worth last year in a stronger market with the same demand?
When you guys figure out this mess - be sure to tell me!!!
Throw in some nice graphs and I will believe almost anything! Otherwise, Supercoin wins!
However, the fact that Mitch has the only 68 slabbed by one of the two major grading services does hold some merrit in its self. If someone really wants it, they'll have to pay what ever Mitch is asking, or they wont get it.
David
Greg
If the price increase was a more normal doubling or tripling to the next grade up, then your arguement would be much more valid. An MS68 NGC coin is worth more than a PCGS MS67 under normal circumstances (normal being that the coin is not a mistake and is truly a half grade higher than a normal PCGS MS67 and that the price increase to the next grade is not artificially high).
1. Supercoin completely ignored my point that at the time THIS 1950(s) LINCOLN IN NGC-MS68RD was graded a couple years ago, it may have very well graded PCGS-MS68RD (the submitter chose to send it to NGC, certainly not a crime)! But, today, I dare the owners of their PCGS-MS68RD Lincolns to bust them out and try to get the same grade!!! What if they are also PCGS-MS67.7 coins today under the present PCGS standard??!! GET THE POINT TAD, MY FRIEND?? Hence the "great Wondercoin" may have no chance to "pull a rabbit out of the hat" and get this in a PCGS holder- did you hear what TDN said - forget crossing anything grading MS66 or better!!!!!
2. Now that I discovered that only a few serious MS Lincoln Registry collectors will even agree to LOOK AT THE NGC COIN, but most are willing to add $5,000 to my price tag if I put PCGS plastic around it, of course I will structure a deal around this scenerio. And, if the coin does get into a PCGS holder, boy will it be sweet pocketing the thousands and thousands extra I will take in. And, if it doesn't cross, that say nothing other than PCGS' standard TODAY on MS68RD copper is as tough as it has ever been - A FACT "NO ONE IN THE KNOW" can ever begin to argue with.
This particular 1950(s) Lincoln is likely the nicest 1950(s) slabbed Mint State Lincoln in the world. PCGS has not chosen to (yet) tell us what a 1950(s) Lincoln in MS68RD looks like. NGC has and they got this coin right imho! Wondercoin
P.S. One thing I will admit that has been said before. It certainly is much harder to sell "top pop" NGC coins in this environment.
No, I don't get the point, unless you mean that changing grading standards mean you shouldn't ever pay a significant premium for a "finest known" label? Hmm...
I've got some proofs that would have graded PR70 a couple years ago, want to give me 30% of PCGS PR70 prices?
See ya after the Lakers game, which takes precedence to this great issue!!
Wondercoin.
Your point that your coin "coulda been" a PCGS MS68 may be true, but it's as meaningless as me saying that I have proofs that "coulda been" PCGS PR70s.
You could put your Lincoln next to a PCGS MS68 Lincoln, or my proof next to a PCGS PR70 and have everyone agree that it was superior, and still not be able to get 30% of the price of the PCGS label.
So what does that prove -- (A) our coins are undervalued, or (B) the PCGS label is overvalued? Well, considering how much the PCGS coins would be worth when cracked out, I'd have to say B.
-------
As an aside, the craziness surrounding low-pop coins is why I think the second-highest graded (or larger population highest-graded) is a better indication of the health of any given segment of the market. The low-pop stuff gets all the "press" but the higher pop stuff is the bread-and-butter.
10% you get PCGS MS-68
50% you get PCGS MS-67
15% you get PCGS MS-66
25% you get questionable color and no PCGS holder
You have a better chance on betting the Nets to win the NBA title [and they ain't gonna] than getting PCGS MS-68.
10% you get PCGS MS-68
50% you get PCGS MS-67
15% you get PCGS MS-66
25% you get questionable color and no PCGS holder
You have a better chance on betting the Nets to win the NBA title [and they ain't gonna] than getting PCGS MS-68.
Is NGC so bad we can't take their judgement into consideration at all? Even I, with my Threads last week comparing the two Services, don't subscribe to that line of logic.
-If a PCGS MS67 1950-S is $500.00 and this Lincoln, should it have been a PCGS coin (and not NGC) is $5,000.00 then certainly a price much above $650.00 (your 30% premium) is warranted.*
*And I write this as someone who still wants this coin if it is available by Thursday!
peacockcoins
Now, whether the "PCGS price" for a low "pop top" coin is grossly overvalued - THAT IS A TOTALLY SEPARATE ISSUE worthy of its own thread. I respect Tad's opinion that in his mind the "grade under" generally represents far better "value" for the majority of collectors. I have views on that issue as well.
But, back to the sole issue of this thread, in virtually every case I can think of, a classic NGC-MS68 coin should be worth substantially more than its PCGS-MS67 counterpart - it's as simple as that imho. Back to the Lakers game for now. Wondercoin.
peacockcoins
ps. It's the Kings game, I'm watching
Greg
Greg: With all due respect, I do not think you have carefully thought through that answer. Do you own any NGC coins in your collection? Will you send me a PM of that list, so I can consider offering you SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN 30% OVER PCGS GRADE-UNDER COINS. Why not sell a bunch of coins for way more than they are "worth".
Any comment that suggests that Lincoln is worth around $600 (30% over PCGS-MS67 money) is seriously ill-informed, albeit well-intentioned. Wondercoin.
Just kidding! Don't flame me! I seriously don't know how to price coins as of now - what do the price guides reflect? NGC? PCGS? On what date? Which grader? Did he kick his dog that morning? WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES FOR ME!!
It is very difficult for you to win the fight (argument) here. For any super nice coin in any holder (or raw), without seeing it in person, people won't appreciate that much. For the NGC MS68 Lincoln, you might be the only person on this board who views, owns, enjoys and appreciates it.
Again, without seeing it in person, I don't have that much feeling about 10X 20X price over PCGS MS67. Also, if I am not a Lincoln specialty, I might not have that much feeling about 10X 20X price over PCGS MS67 since without spending time to look for ultimate high quality coin, you just don't know how difficult to find one.
TDN: Sounds fair - the PCGS coin being worth 3/4 of NGC price ($600 vs. $800 is a bit off, but you got the right percentages).
Reading these comments reminds me of a 1946 BTW in NGC-MS68 I saw at auction (at Superior) earlier this year (last Long Beach show). It was in an NGC-MS68 holder (may have been the 46(d) BTW as I recall). I remember concluding that PCGS would have only graded the coin MS67 imho and a BTW in PCGS-MS67 is around a $2500 coin. I was deciding what kind of bid to place on the coin - $3500, $4500, $6500. There had never been a BTW in PCGS-MS68 ever graded (any date). I decided to pursue a couple other coins and not "go for it". The coin sold for around $18,000 (probably not that far off from what a PCGS-MS68 would fetch). Using the "30%" misguided argument, the coin should have fetched around $3250. Why did it fetch $18,000? It was pop 1/0 for both services and possibly the nicest BTW of that date on the planet. It sold for around 700% of PCGS money for MS67. I could list coin after coin in the pop 1/0 NGC holder that commanded fabulous money.
Anyone think a 1932(d) quarter in an NGC-MS66 holder would command 30% over PCGS-MS65 money - ha!
Sorry guys- the majority thus far may agree with Tad, but that doesn't make him right Wondercoin.
<< <i>Will you send me a PM of that list, so I can consider offering you SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN 30% OVER PCGS GRADE-UNDER COINS. Why not sell a bunch of coins for way more than they are "worth". >>
Could you copy me on that list. The falacy that NGC coins are automatically a grade or more overgraded compared to PCGS certainly doesn't apply to classic coins.
As far as the supergraded pop1 stuff. Some people buy the coin, others are buying the number. If you are buying the coin, then a high end 67 may sell 30% closer to a 68, but if you are buying the number just to be on top, then all 67s are alike, and that's miles from a 68.
Mark
Maybe so, but not when the coin is barely worth $1.00 in gem condition, I'd bet. Give it a try.
Anyone think a 1932(d) quarter in an NGC-MS66 holder would command 30% over PCGS-MS65 money
Last I knew, a 1932-D quarter was approximately 1000X more expensive than a 1950-S in typical mint-state grades. Completely different animal.
The key difference is an MS68 1950-S derives virtually all of its value from condition-rarity, which is why the "magic" holder (both grade and service) is currently so important.
I agree that difference is overstated, but again -- that's just as easily explained (and more credibly, in my opinion) by concluding the PCGS coin is overpriced* as concluding that the NGC coin is a bargain**.
Crack both coins out and your coin very well may be worth the premium you're looking for -- percentage-wise, anyway .
Sorry guys- the majority thus far may agree with Tad, but that doesn't make him right
That's true... find a buyer yet? Ok, ok, that was mean.
* Talking only about the coin here, no investment opinion expressed or implied on the coin/holder combination, I've been very wrong in the past (sold PCGS PR70 SBAs at $75, thank you very much).
** Ditto that.
Tad: This discussion has not revolved around selling a coin - it has revoled around the silly notion some suggested that a classic NGC coin (pre-1965 for these purposes) should sell for around the PCGS grade under price. "Ignorance is bliss" I guess
I worked out a deal on the sale of the 1950(s) Lincoln with a board member two days ago (first lesson Tad is never ask a question you don't know the answer to)
Wondercoin.
And of course you've repeatedly refused to address the key points in my post.
first lesson Tad is never ask a question you don't know the answer to
Hmm... that's sounds like a great recipe for meaningful discussion.
Perhaps the second lesson is to not attempt to engage in such a discussion with you. Thanks for the lessons.
Also, I didn't ignore your "key points". I just didn't see the significance of why a $1.00 value in gem grade (actually the 50(s) is more like a $5-$10 coin in true gem grade) had anything to do with the issue of whether an NGC-MS68 should be valued the same as a PCGS-MS67. And, the fact that a 32(d) quarter is worth 1000x more is also not significant to the specific question I thought.
Anyway, we will just have to agree to disagree for now. Although we do have in common the fact that we both (happily) sold PR70 SBA $1's at $75/coin so your previous disclaimer (which I adopt) applies to everything I have said in this thread as well Wondercoin.
"Because I can"
myurl The Franklin All Old Green Holder Set
Believe it or not I only own 2 NGC coins. The first is a somewhat common date Lincoln from the 40s (not a steel, and don't think its a shell case) in RD67. Forgot the date, but it seems to be worth about $100 in a PCGS holder. Paid $50 a month or two ago. Don't know the value of a common date PCGS MS66 RD Lincoln from the 40s, but about 30% under $50 seems ballpark.
The second is a nicely toned common date type capped bust half in MS64. Not sure of the value of either an NGC64 or a PCGS MS63. Maybe you guys could let me know vs the 30% standard.
Greg