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Impact of UK leaving the Eurozone? The referendum is 6/23...

ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
With the vote quickly approaching (T-10 days), I think it would be fun to talk about possible outcomes and the affect a Brexit can have on our shiny metal(s).



I think leading up to the vote, metals will trend higher due to volatility and uncertainty in the markets. The UK voters are keeping this exciting as they seem to be split almost 50/50 on this topic.



What follows for metals and the perception of the world economy after the vote will be fun to watch.
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Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I vote they will stay, not because it is their choice, but because it is the choice of those counting the votes.

    Brexit fear is good for gold. Uncertainty has sterling holders moving to safehaven until the dust settles. Brexit is necessary to trump the EU hold on member nations (by leaders who are not even elected) and it is necessary to ensure the future and independence of Britain. Greece showed what happens when a nation loses its sovereignty to outsiders who do not have to answer to the Greek people.

    I do not expect the euromasters to allow a fair fight. The people of Britain, regardless of what they want are fighting a powerful machine. We know what political machines are capable of.

    The EU is a failed experiment. It exemplifies the shortcomings of sharing a currency without the political unity to protect that currency.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is already a move to gold in Britain.... likely the rest of Europe will also follow.. Not sure how long a British exit will affect the market or metals... will be fun to watch. Cheers, RickO
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,293 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When another person manages my affairs, they're their affairs. Personally, it's not my country, nor homeland. As a native Nebraskan, I don't even like the way the federal government intrudes on state's rights. So there. I think the whole of Europe is in trouble bailing each other out of holes.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What derryb said!
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • chumleychumley Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭✭
    they will stay because they fear the economic disruption of leaving
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭


    If the vote is leave , will parliament block it? This could shape up as a constitutional crisis . Will the bought and paid for MP's ignore the will of the people ?
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,356 ✭✭✭✭✭
    They will leave.

    The weather sucks.

    Gold is warm and sunny.
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • BBNBBN Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭
    How will Germany react to the crumbling of the Fourth Reich?

    Positive BST Transactions (buyers and sellers): wondercoin, blu62vette, BAJJERFAN, privatecoin, blu62vette, AlanLastufka, privatecoin

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,127 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Very little effect on the economies or currencies of Great Britain or the EU on either a stay or leave vote.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I said they would vote to leave.
    That said, Old Joe Stalin applies here - It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,088 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Leave - gold .... Down in dollar terms as people will sell the pound and buy the dollar

    Stay - gold ... Hard to say because I'm not sure of run up pre-vote. If we run up another $100, then I'll bet sell the news. If we're flat from here or only a bit up then I'm not sure

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm surprised by the support or indifference for Brexit here.



    The aspiration of a continent that had spent 2000 years tearing each other to tribal shreds, culminating in two inconceivably horrific wars resulting from the very fruits of their civilization's advances, was to unify, and forestall thereby any prospect for such horrors thereafter. Born as I was in 1945,I grew up applauding the sentiment, actualized in the Common Market, the EU and the Euro.



    No doubt, the Euro was too far ahead of the lack of effective federalism to manage the crises in 2008 and thereafter. And perhaps the tribalism that is Europe will ultimately overwhelm the dream of the EU. Maybe it is true, that people who didn't live through the World Wars are rising to power, and discount the possibility that Europe could revisit that suicidal destruction, now with nukes, etc.



    But I believe history will lament this failure of the EU if it fails, and document the disasters of its fall.







  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,088 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Europe has A LOT of healing required.

    There are several hundred years long grudges being borne.


    They definitely need the group hug, but will Britain vote to stay or go and what is the impact on AU/Ag?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I hear people mentioning (here and news sources) that if the UK leaves the Euro-zone, that there will be economic discourse. What would the economic fallout actually be?



    Less foreign investment in the UK?

    Tariffs on imports/exports from the UK to the rest of Europe?

    Recession for the UK?

    Do you think other countries could follow suit and jump the Euro-Zone ship?







  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    london gold market pushed gold up all morning. London market now closing and gold dropping. Sterling going into gold, dollars coming out.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,293 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There's only one way image , except when there are different paths to the same place. Ultimately, it's about sovereignty, as much as democratization and unity, one would think.
    And a capitalist sits back and capitalizes on the news. image Odd, isn't it ?
  • USASoccerUSASoccer Posts: 445 ✭✭✭
    It will be the best thing that the UK could do for its citizens/workers.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: dpoole
    I'm surprised by the support or indifference for Brexit here.

    The aspiration of a continent that had spent 2000 years tearing each other to tribal shreds, culminating in two inconceivably horrific wars resulting from the very fruits of their civilization's advances, was to unify, and forestall thereby any prospect for such horrors thereafter. Born as I was in 1945,I grew up applauding the sentiment, actualized in the Common Market, the EU and the Euro.

    No doubt, the Euro was too far ahead of the lack of effective federalism to manage the crises in 2008 and thereafter. And perhaps the tribalism that is Europe will ultimately overwhelm the dream of the EU. Maybe it is true, that people who didn't live through the World Wars are rising to power, and discount the possibility that Europe could revisit that suicidal destruction, now with nukes, etc.

    But I believe history will lament this failure of the EU if it fails, and document the disasters of its fall.

    The EU is already a failure. People have figured out that it was all a con job , they have seen that the EU does what it wants and ignores the will of the people in individual countries.
    All it did was add a higher layer of government and more unaccountable bureaucrats that need more tax revenue .





  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,137 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: USASoccer

    It will be the best thing that the UK could do for its citizens/workers.




    Agree. Gold and silver seem to be doing quite well in light of the anxiety over this vote.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,127 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: USASoccer
    It will be the best thing that the UK could do for its citizens/workers.


    Why?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $1311, up $20-smoething
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭


    Prediction if it looks like a vote to stay then they stay.

    If the voters lean towards exit then of course they will stay also.

    Right now stay and leave is a dead heat 10% each with 80% undecided in the form of super delegatesimage.



  • USASoccerUSASoccer Posts: 445 ✭✭✭
    I think they are importing in cheap labor that hurts the middle class...
  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb

    I vote they will stay, not because it is their choice, but because it is the choice of those counting the votes.





    HaHaHa that is so true!! If it was their choice they would leave and others would follow but they will do anything right now to save the euro. I would not be surprised if they try and delay the vote to get better prepared anyone though of that?

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,137 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: oldstandard

    Originally posted by: derryb

    I vote they will stay, not because it is their choice, but because it is the choice of those counting the votes.





    HaHaHa that is so true!! If it was their choice they would leave and others would follow but they will do anything right now to save the euro. I would not be surprised if they try and delay the vote to get better prepared anyone though of that?





    Britain doesn't use the Euro. Anyone know why?

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    Monday (pre-mkt) US futures up big on recent Brexit polling.

    Euro did not make sense for Britain. New York and London are
    the two centers of world finance. Whatever city is in 3rd place is
    not even close.

    Only 7% of UK citizens consider themselves European.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    An exit will increase dollar demand. Dollar up, gold down.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • SaorAlbaSaorAlba Posts: 7,541 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are a lot of dimensions to this, if the UK leaves the EU then Scotland will likely hold another referendum on independence and leave the UK. There is also a lot more EU support in Wales - so with the right conditions ie leaving the EU - Wales may just decide to leave the UK. The 2014 vote in Scotland was very narrowly defeated, polls had suggested Scotland would leave the UK. A Brexit would seal the deal.
    In memory of my kitty Seryozha 14.2.1996 ~ 13.9.2016 and Shadow 3.4.2015 - 16.4.21
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is a vote on the future of the EU itself. It could very well throw a monkey wrench in the globalist's "one world, one currency" effort. The biggest flaw in the EU concept is that nations' futures and rules are determined by appointed, not elected, leaders. The Greek population can attest to this.

    You and I can't even imagine the hidden efforts to prevent Brexit from happening. Let's hope the Brit's are, without interference, allowed to do the right thing. This is the proverbial line that has been drawn in the sand.

    Those that do not understand the implications need only consider what a North American Union (most likely in the globalist's plans) would mean for them. I have no problem with Mexico or Canada becoming a 51st state of the US. I, like most, do have a problem with sacrificing/modifying my constitution and the rules that govern me to accommodate the desires and differences of outsiders who want to join up. Reminds me of the "no child left behind" experiment that resulted in lower education standards for all.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Birth of a super state


    Here is the money quote

    Instead there would be a new system: government by an enlightened elite of bureaucrats. The hoi polloi (you and me) were simply too dim, too emotional, too uneducated to be safely allowed to choose their governments. It never occurred to him to devise a way to strengthen and fortify democracy to ensure that what happened in Italy and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s could not happen again. No, democracy was unsafe and had to be replaced. (This is not propaganda, he wrote it all down).


    here is another gem

    "Europe's nations should be guided towards the Super-state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation."
  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Tick, tock, tick, tock, less than 24 hours to go until the vote.



    With what happened to MP Jo Cox last week, I think many of the people who were on the fence are now in the "stay" camp.... It should be an interesting end to the week to see what the voters decide and how the market reacts!
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: bronco2078

    Birth of a super state





    Here is the money quote



    Instead there would be a new system: government by an enlightened elite of bureaucrats. The hoi polloi (you and me) were simply too dim, too emotional, too uneducated to be safely allowed to choose their governments. It never occurred to him to devise a way to strengthen and fortify democracy to ensure that what happened in Italy and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s could not happen again. No, democracy was unsafe and had to be replaced. (This is not propaganda, he wrote it all down).





    here is another gem



    "Europe's nations should be guided towards the Super-state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation."






    Didn't read the link, since I presumed you were quoting Alexander Hamilton.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    another good quote:

    "If Brexit passes Goldman won't be able to sodomize Greece from London..." - ZH

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,144 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Getting interesting now......
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,182 ✭✭✭✭✭
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  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    around 50% of districts reporting in with about a 2.5% lead for leave.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interesting how they crushed gold down to $1250 at the end of today....only to allow it to spring back to fill Sunday night's massive $6 gap at $1298.....now filled with a rebound to $1350. The tricks of the "masters." Next pair of gold spot gaps as start of today were at $1336 and $1357 from 2014. One of them is now filled. The other probably goes too. Then comes $1389 which when filled will take out the 2014 gold high. Gold is putting in one of the biggest weekly up candles in the past 2 years....all in the space of 8 hours! Silver now over $18.20. Insane.



    Stocks getting crushed so far tonight along with the Pound and Euro. Treasuries, gold, yen, and dollar soaring. PPT has signaled a 7 alarm fire and all available hands will be buying stocks before Friday's open.



    People may vote to leave....but he who controls the voting computers gets the last word. image



    Referendum is not binding on Parliament. And it could take 2 years or more to get it officially done.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $1358+ for gold and now giving $25 right back. That was a nice parabolic move. +$108 in under 8 hours. And assuming the vote is to leave, gold probably will add another leg higher. The $1389-$1413 gap range will be another tough cookie. Strange behavior for a typical corrective seasonal June period. Would be nice if gold were still above $1300 by morning. I didn't expect gold to actually complete the 4 month - 5 wave, expanding wedge. But it did it all tonight.



    USD is back to the center of the 2015-2016 consolidation zone. But the out-performance of the Yen has pushed the USD/JPY to over a 2-1/2 year low tonight. That's one of the biggest driver's of gold.



    BBC now calling that "leave" is going to take it.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wow
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sitting at a banker pub in Seattle watching the results come in and the market moves...folks are freaking. The second EU domino is falling...and the city here smells like the herb...today's French cake.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Got Bullion?
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,088 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Funny, I just freed up cash and it may be I'll be back in this am

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,088 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: renman95
    Got Bullion?


    Got more bullion?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,166 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ya so it looks like leave wins....This works for the "majority" I am neutral on this. The big moves in the markets may subside in time. Time ....funny it does not exist really.... no Experiment exists to proof its existence. However, as Einstein said, Time is relative.....I hope you all enjoyed the evening!!!
  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was firmly pegged in the "they're staying" camp. I'm a bit shocked!
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    BBC commentators calling those in favor of ??Brexit? "Eurosceptics", saying they're white, uneducated, prejudiced, simpletons. Sound familiar?
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ir could take parliament up to two years to act to make it official, and they are not required to - the referendum vote is not legally binding. The closer the vote the more leeway MPs will feel they have have to do what they think is best for the country. Let the dirty games/bribes really begin.

    Do-over?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

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