Market Exuberance

paleocards

I track the “performance” of my “blue-chips” through eBay’s sold auctions, major auction house results and VCP. I started doing this soon after I bought and slabbed my first PSA cards in 2005, so I have over 10 years of data for some of my cards. I collect baseball HOFers in as high a grade as I can afford, and I can confidently state that I’ve never seen the baseball card market as explosive as it is now.

The recently-ended Spring auctions by some of the major houses (including REA, Mile High, Memory Lane, and Goldin) provide cases-in-point, but eBay (and not just PWCC) have provided some recent stunners as well.

Here’s some data:

REA (closed 5/1/16) auctioned 7 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with five of the seven hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1968 Topps #280 Mickey Mantle PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $1080
Previous record: $854 (PWCC “certified,” 12/10/15)
Sales tracked: 320 since 12/9/09

1933 Goudey #92 Lou Gehrig PSA 4
New record sale (w/juice): $2700
Previous record: $2133 (Huggins & Scott, 6/13/13)
Sales tracked: 42 since 1/18/12

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
New record sale (w/juice): $4200
Previous record: $3561 (PWCC, 3/8/16)
Sales tracked: 313 since 11/21/07

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $4500
Previous record: $2577 (PWCC, 4/12/16)
Sales tracked: 236 since 10/24/05

1955 Topps #164 Roberto Clemente RC PSA 5
New record sale (w/juice): $5100
Previous record: $3150 (PWCC “certified,” 2/8/16)
Sales tracked: 27 since 5/4/15

Mile High (closed 5/6/16) auctioned 9 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with four of the nine hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1956 Topps #292 Luis Aparicio RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $1020.60
Previous record: $583 (eBay BIN, 12/31/14)
Sales tracked: 84 since 1/8/09

1969 Topps #95 Johnny Bench PSA 9
New record sale (w/juice): $1827.36
Previous record: $1050 (PWCC, 3/13/14)
Sales tracked: 85 since 1/24/06

1966 Topps #50 Mickey Mantle PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $3202.80
Previous record: $1450 (eBay BIN, 4/5/16)
Sales tracked: 257 since 8/29/05

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7 (again!)
New record sale (w/juice): $4393.94
Previous record: $4200 (REA, 5/1/16)
Sales tracked: 315 since 11/21/07

Memory Lane (closed 5/8/16) auctioned 9 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with two of the nine hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1971 Topps #26 Bert Blyleven RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $684
Previous record: $650 (eBay BIN, 7/15/13)
Sales tracked: 63 since 1/14/13

1963 Topps #553 Willie Stargell RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $684
Previous record: $671 (PWCC, 11/5/14)
Sales tracked: 140 since 3/7/08

And then…another Stargell RC in 8 sold on eBay 12 days later (5/17) for $961.01!

Goldin (closed 5/8/16) auctioned 2 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with one of the two hammering-down at an unprecedented level (according to my records).

1949 Bowman #84 Roy Campanella RC PSA 7
New record sale (w/juice): $1037
Previous record: $949 (eBay best offer, 4/13/16)
Sales tracked: 33 since 1/14/12

And of course there’s the PSA 8 Nolan Ryan RC that’s just going ballistic:
New record sale: $8095 (eBay auction, NOT PWCC, 5/15/16)
Previous record: $5000 (PWCC, 5/12/16)
Sales tracked: 272 since 1/6/09

Darin

Amazing numbers!

I'm not sure if its a record, but a 1975 George Brett PSA 9 just sold on
ebay for $4,050 a few days ago.

wilkiebaby11

It's tough to sell when record prices continue to be made! I plan on paying for my kid's college with my baseball cards, just like my parents thought they were doing for me by buying all the Will Clark RC's that they could get their hands on.

TheMick6

I don't think I could sell at this moment. I don't see collectors all the sudden NOT wanting that Clemente 55 or other high end HOF rookie cards. I see them being hoarded actually only coming out for sale when people need to turn a collection over or something is needed. I could be wrong the market could bottom out. Even if it does isn't that the risk we all take with collecting anyway. I bought a lot of my high end stuff 4-5 years ago so if I sold I'd make out but even if they bottomed out to what I got them for I think I can except that as a collector. I do think it may be to late to be a buyer on a lot of higher end stuff. I think NM stuff was the collector grade for 50' and 60's stuff I just think that will be ex+ to Ex/nm now is all.

VintagemanEd

That is some great info...... It looks like a Brock RC in psa 9 might be next to set a new high

craig44

Maybe this is just a market correction. Rare and high grade sports cards have lagged behind other collectables fields like coins and fine art. Is it possible we are seeing the new normal?

Stone193

I can't part with anything I've collected.



If I were concerned about ROI?



I would've loaded up on PSA 9s 20+ years ago.



There's a few items I wish I had taken advantage of just for the pride of ownership.



The "collector gene" coupled with being a pack rat is quite unforgiving.



Those afflicted? Will most likely be buried with their stuff.

Unknown

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TheMick6

If they drop I'll be right there to scoop up what I can.

Cakes

Originally posted by: craig44
Maybe this is just a market correction. Rare and high grade sports cards have lagged behind other collectables fields like coins and fine art. Is it possible we are seeing the new normal?

I definitely think it's been a factor.

Cakes

Originally posted by: CrissCriss
If you do your research, you will find a number of individuals with money have entered the market and have generated more demand for a limited supply of material. Many longtime, 'normal' collectors also have money but have found it harder to acquire what they want due to the entry of new players. Thus, prices rise.

Think of it this way. Let's say there is a niche for a certain type of art. The art is valuable, of somewhat limited supply, demand is steady amongst a group of upper income people and prices are high but not extraordinary. Now say a group of well off individuals enter that marketplace. Maybe they are coordinating efforts, maybe they are not. But they will pay much higher prices than have historically occurred to acquire what they want. All of a sudden the market is transformed. That is what has happened here.

It can only go two directions from here. If more of those same people enter the market, prices may actually continue to rise. However, if the economy craters and wealth is lost, these same people, needing cash, may leave the market and prices will drop.

It is going to be fascinating to watch.

I agree. I think insane prices of the Mantle and the Wagner cards combined with the security of graded cards have caught the eyes of some extremely wealthy collectors.

emar

It's fun to watch. Unfortunately my target prices had to by raised.
You can call this a good old fashioned trading breakout. Eventually, prices will settle back down before trending higher.

CocoaBeachDodgers

I would certainly buy that explanation for the super high price premium items, but what about the $500 to $1000 items (HOF rookies) that are also exploding? Are they just increasing to stay in line with their counterparts or are there other factors?

emar

Originally posted by: CocoaBeachDodgers
I would certainly buy that explanation for the super high price premium items, but what about the $500 to $1000 items (HOF rookies) that are also exploding? Are they just increasing to stay in line with their counterparts or are there other factors?

Good question.
I think you can compare this to an asset class such as the bio tech craze; year or two ago.
The Blue Chip bio's created a lot of speculation among the lesser quality companies in the same class. Investors were scrambling to get ahead of the curve.

However,
Investment assets such as art, collectibles, and gold produce nothing...no tangible earnings.
Part of my theory is Gen X & the boomers are pursuing alternate investments in much larger numbers.

Population reports PSA/SGC/BVG tell the story. 1:25 , 1:100, 1:500, etc.
More buyers (volume) + low population available on the market (float) = higher prices

HOF rookies have always been on the most popular collectible list

SpinFadeSplash23

One possible explanation for the lower priced items exploding is availability and market exclusivity. If I am looking to buy a nice Mantle and I am priced out of the market across the board, perhaps my next thought is to look for a lower priced HOF. If I have money to spend on card X and can't afford it anymore, I'll be more likely to expand my horizons and buy something else I can afford. As a collector, I'd rather execute that plan than leave the market with no product and my money in hand. Especially with the recent jump in prices. Case in point - When 86 Fleer MJ's were 10-15k, I was in. At the recent price, I am out. But rather than not buy anything, I've been scooping up his 1985 Nike and older style signature cards. All about adjustments.

ElvisP

That is not the record for the Koufax RC in PSA 7. The record is in the Mile High auction that ended 5/6. Sold for $4,393.44. Don't know if that includes juice or not but don;t think it does.

BeRoyalKC

3 years ago unopened went crazy. I think there will always be a segment of the hobby that is seeing some explosive increases. I'm personally waiting for my Pogs to get hot again so I can unload my collection.

paleocards

ElvisP - read further down in my original post and you'll see the new record for the PSA 7 Koufax RC in the Mile High auction, thanks.

BaltimoreYankee

Selling doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing. You can always sell some cards and continue to hold some. This way whether the market tanks or keeps going up, you're partially covered.

MarsAttacks

Another 55 Koufax PSA 7 RC record set on eBay tonight - $5211

ElvisP

Originally posted by: paleocards
ElvisP - read further down in my original post and you'll see the new record for the PSA 7 Koufax RC in the Mile High auction, thanks.

Got it but the record was shattered tonight on eBay as one sold for the unbelievable price of $5,211. Scratching my head on this one!!

MarsAttacks

Someone just hit the BIN on another 55 Koufax PSA 7 for $5999. Wow - Incredible

KendallCat

Think people are panic buying thinking none will be left? Look at cards like 1968 Mantle in PSA 8 where there are a zillion of them, and card could be had on eBay for years for $425-500 all day. Now you hardly find any for sale, and if they are they are asking $600-800!

craig44

I am waiting for all of my mid 90's phone cards to go through the roof.

paleocards

And another PSA 7 Koufax RC BIN'ed at $6100 less than an hour after the one for $5999.99!!

Unbelievable, I bought mine for $875 in February 2008.

ndleo

I got my Koufax RC PSA 7 earlier this year for around $2K. I thought it was undervalued, but $6100 is crazy. That card is very nice for a 7, but it is not a rare card.

ElvisP

After the BIN $5,999 another one went immediately for $6,100. There are none currently listed on ebay but I bet that changes soon!!

lseecon

Its FLIPPING insane

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-123-R-Sandy-Koufax-PSA-7-9355-/131768932060?hash=item1eae0a56dc:g:IrgAAOSwbwlW~rqn&nma=true&si=I2vNyvqi%2FOKE7onT7B7C2vbyUi4%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557&rmvSB=true

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-123-Sandy-Koufax-RC-PSA-7-Centered-Blazer-/121994896703?hash=item1c6776653f:g:aNoAAOSw7ehXQoTW&nma=true&si=I2vNyvqi%2FOKE7onT7B7C2vbyUi4%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557&rmvSB=true


there are dozens of other examples on all the HOF Rookie cards, Jordans etc of the recent flipping of these cards. Is this real collector demand? Doesnt appear to be.

Remember the promo card craze back in the 1980s early 1990s? You could get some promo cards from a show you went to, then in a few days/weeks flip them for insane amounts of money. Ditto with 80s 90s rookie cards. Used to buy 86 donruss Canseco cards for $5 a pop, then wait a month or so, flip them for $20 a pop, then be pissed when the guy I sold them to flipped them for $60 a pop to someone else. Fortunately vintage HOF rookie cards are not another fad nor do we have to worry about Koufax or Mantle being shunned by collectors and the public because of steroid use, but the price jumps and card flipping is eerily similar to periods in this hobby that triggered a top in those cards' prices. There will always be demand for these HOF Rookie cards, but the price increases cant be sustained in my opinion, not when you see many of the purchasers simply flipping. If these sales werent mostly flips, I wouldnt be concerned and the prices could very well be sustained over the long term, but when you really just have speculators and flippers on alot this stuff it has to be worrisome. While not all the cards are being flipped, certainly many are going that route in this frenzy. Never healthy for the long term sustainability of anything to see "overnight" price doubling or tripling.

Maybe all of a sudden hundreds of new deep pocket "collectors" just entered the market and are buying up this stuff with the intent on holding for a long time. I hope so, but really doubt it. What seems more likely is that SOME new deep pocketed collectors entered the hobby and many others (fast money) are just riding the flipping train while the "getting is good"

slum22

Originally posted by: lseecon
Its FLIPPING insane

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-123-R-Sandy-Koufax-PSA-7-9355-/131768932060?hash=item1eae0a56dc:g:IrgAAOSwbwlW~rqn&nma=true&si=I2vNyvqi%2FOKE7onT7B7C2vbyUi4%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557&rmvSB=true

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-123-Sandy-Koufax-RC-PSA-7-Centered-Blazer-/121994896703?hash=item1c6776653f:g:aNoAAOSw7ehXQoTW&nma=true&si=I2vNyvqi%2FOKE7onT7B7C2vbyUi4%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557&rmvSB=true


there are dozens of other examples on all the HOF Rookie cards, Jordans etc of the recent flipping of these cards. Is this real collector demand? Doesnt appear to be.

Remember the promo card craze back in the 1980s early 1990s? You could get some promo cards from a show you went to, then in a few days/weeks flip them for insane amounts of money. Ditto with 80s 90s rookie cards. Used to buy 86 donruss Canseco cards for $5 a pop, then wait a month or so, flip them for $20 a pop, then be pissed when the guy I sold them to flipped them for $60 a pop to someone else. Fortunately vintage HOF rookie cards are not another fad nor do we have to worry about Koufax or Mantle being shunned by collectors and the public because of steroid use, but the price jumps and card flipping is eerily similar to periods in this hobby that triggered a top in those cards' prices. There will always be demand for these HOF Rookie cards, but the price increases cant be sustained in my opinion, not when you see many of the purchasers simply flipping. If these sales werent mostly flips, I wouldnt be concerned and the prices could very well be sustained over the long term, but when you really just have speculators and flippers on alot this stuff it has to be worrisome. While not all the cards are being flipped, certainly many are going that route in this frenzy. Never healthy for the long term sustainability of anything to see "overnight" price doubling or tripling.

Maybe all of a sudden hundreds of new deep pocket "collectors" just entered the market and are buying up this stuff with the intent on holding for a long time. I hope so, but really doubt it. What seems more likely is that SOME new deep pocketed collectors entered the hobby and many others (fast money) are just riding the flipping train while the "getting is good"

I think you summed it up well. I agree with just about everything in your statement. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

ndleo

A couple of 2004 Contenders Roethlisberger PSA 10's sold for over $2000 recently. That was a $500 card last year.

I guess the spike is hitting key modern as well.

3BoyzTrading

There is no end in site! It seems it started with the 2009 Topps Curry as far as time frames. It took a week for the card to go from $40 to $400. I just cant see this many new collectors getting into the market with this much money so fast and so soon. It's like the formula for flipping has taken over the hobby. I was in the market for a low grade Clemente and now they are running $4K plus? Throw in the PWCC and Probstein auctions and everything hits a record price every time a key card is posted. Who is left holding the bag?

It's like prospecting with Hall of Fame rookie cards. Start a false trend and see if someone bites.


I wonder what the next IT card is going to be

miwlvrn

I wonder what the next IT card is going to be

I am willing to bet there are plenty of people on the boards here who have their own theories as to the answer to that question and are quietly stockpiling a few of whatever it is without letting on to their hunch.

ndleo

Originally posted by: miwlvrn

I wonder what the next IT card is going to be

I am willing to bet there are plenty of people on the boards here who have their own theories as to the answer to that question and are quietly stockpiling a few of whatever it is without letting on to their hunch.

Yup!

ndleo

Originally posted by: 3BoyzTrading
There is no end in site! It seems it started with the 2009 Topps Curry as far as time frames. It took a week for the card to go from $40 to $400. I just cant see this many new collectors getting into the market with this much money so fast and so soon. It's like the formula for flipping has taken over the hobby. I was in the market for a low grade Clemente and now they are running $4K plus? Throw in the PWCC and Probstein auctions and everything hits a record price every time a key card is posted. Who is left holding the bag?

It's like prospecting with Hall of Fame rookie cards. Start a false trend and see if someone bites.


I wonder what the next IT card is going to be

I brought this up in the WSJ Art Auction story I posted. No one thought there was a correlation but one of the points brought up was that the key art pieces were coming to market more often and being traded like stocks. Pieces that used to sit in collections for decades were coming up for sale on a regular basis, thereby losing some of the mystique premium.

vettfanatic

Nolan Ryan PSA 8's selling for $8000. Something just doesn't seem right. This card has a population of 630 in that grade. It's far from rare. The same goes for a lot of the other cards selling at crazy prices. I can't see this trend continuing at this pace, but then again I'm wrong all the time.

Jeff

swartz1

sell now...

rcmb3220

So what does a market correction look like? What happened in 2008-9? I've only been back in for a couple years. All I've seen in two years is prices rising, then stabilizing. Nothing (besides new stuff) going down with any significance.