Long term, short term...

joeykoins

Hi guys, bored on a Friday afternoon. Currently, our host (PCGS) slab totals are 32,621,490. Short term; How long before they reach 32,700,490 slabs? I'll guess, exactly, one year from today 4-15-17.
Long term; How long before they reach the 33,000,000th mark? I'll guess exactly, two years from today, 4-15-18. Hope we remember this thread by then? At least myself, from memory loss.LOL

david3142

Interesting exercise, but those implied rates don't make much sense (and they are inconsistent with each other). The company is 30 years old so they've graded more than 1 million coins per year. I assume the rate has accelerated since the beginning so I imagine they'll hit 32.7MM (80K to go) in less than a month.

roadrunner

The majority of those coins are in generics like Saints, Morgan, Peace dollars,20th century material, especially post 1980 Moderns. Also figure that approx 50% of those coins have been cracked out. The real number is in the 10Mill-20Mill range. There should be no additional credit given to the same coins graded 3X to 20X or more.

ricko

Roadrunner is correct...those figures are 'submissions'...The average is just over a million a year or 90.6 thousand per month. So, submissions should hit 33,000,000 in August. Cheers, RickO

joeykoins

Boy, was I off! david3142 and Ricko are right. From when I posted this thread, not even two weeks later, the toll of the 32,700,000 was hit! That is a lot of slabs in such a little time. Good for you PCGS.

joeykoins

Well, here's to what I thought! The 33,000,000 is just about there. In only a couple of months instead of a couple of years that I predicted. I was also one of the many that predicted that the Cubs would win the World Series in the early 80's. Don't listen to me!LOL

joeykoins

Ok! Now I'm ready. Since learning how the attributes of the slabs work. The total as of now is at that 33,000,000 mark. This time I'll guess when the 34,000,000 will be hit. I'll say, September 1,2016. Any other guesses?

joeykoins

Exactly one month to go on my prediction. Do you think I'll be right? If anyone even cares?

joeykoins

Oh well, times up for me. Wrong again! Only almost a half a million off.

dbtunr

FYI



January - June they run about 250K coins/month (due to more Modern coins)

July - December they run about 190K coins/month



so to get to 34M from the 33.616M today will take about 2 months from now.

joeykoins

We shall see. Maybe, you'll be right?