Pick a coin from any big dealers website and 1 year later?

pennyannie

If you went to any big national dealers website and looked thru the coins offered and picked one and write a check for the asking price where do you think you would be in 6 months or 12 months if you wanted to get out in 10 days? This is not a thread about overpriced coins probably more on how confident are you in the coin market. I used the big dealers for the example because they should have nice quality coins and a pulse on the market . I know you can go local shows cherry pick, cut deals etc. This is not about that type of transaction.

shorecoll

I'll start. A common date non-cherrypick regular run of the mill coin (non-dreck) you would lose 30%.

Just a guess.

Sonorandesertrat

A year ago, you buy a coin at retail? Still underwater if you have to sell at today's wholesale level.

keets

I recall that about two years ago there was something going on with common date Morgans in MS64-65 that caused prices to rise quickly for a short while, so you never know what might happen. I guess all I'm saying is that sometimes the market can change without warning based on things which are totally out of anyone's control.

Cougar1978

Assuming no uptick in coin market you would be offered roughly about 60% -70% (could be a lot less) of what you paid if shopping the coin around the bourse getting a number of offers. I offer (bid in auction) 60%- 70% of what I think I can sell a coin for based on inventory needs, current market conditions. If you auctioned the coin off ebay you might realize 70% of cost or even much less. Coins are a retail hobby (just like model trains or planes) and cost plus about 40% is an industry norm. Sadly, at shows I see people in a forced sell situation taking these kinds of hits.......If your hobby is numismatics, I hope your well off. At least you will get something for your coins when it comes time to sell (hopefully more or at least getting some exposure to online selling, taking a table at a show) vs a hobby like strip clubbing or sports season tickets where what you spend is gone forever. There is no Santa or Mother Teresa to feel sorry for you in numismatics so shopping around, doing hour homework, and investing wisely in your budget is vital. Because the other guy spends money on big ticket coins does not mean you should. He is only going to take a much harder fall if pressed to sell, too bad so sad.

TwoSides2aCoin

In this respect, I'd be rich.

SeattleSlammer

Especially attractive coins: you can always sell them in select venues for just about or more than what you paid for them.

All other coins: you're always gonna take a haircut and/or get hosed!

TRUTH

TwoSides2aCoin

Originally posted by: Sonorandesertrat
A year ago, you buy a coin at retail? Still underwater if you have to sell at today's wholesale level.

Make it up on volume.

roadrunner

Originally posted by: SeattleSlammer

Especially attractive coins: you can always sell them in select venues for just about or more than what you paid for them.



All other coins: you're always gonna take a haircut and/or get hosed!



TRUTH

I went through the fresh offerings of one of the nation's biggest and most well known high end dealers one time and found numerous coins I could sell for more money the next day. I wish I had bought more. It happens. For instance, I paid them full CDN "ask" for an NGC MS63 1839 no drapery half at that time which was $12,500. I flipped the coin a few weeks later for $14,500. The final joke was on me though as that same buyer sold their collection only 6 months later and got over $20K for that coin (then crossed over into PCGS 63). I've been on both the giving and receiving end of such transactions. Back when under-graded coins were much easier to find in slabs, it wasn't hard to resubmit/crack out, wait a month, and then double up on what you bought. Most transactions don't work out that easily. Many are certainly a struggle to get back what you paid. It helps to be doing that in a rising market (ie 2002-2008). If I knew I was going to be down more than 10% the next day when buying a coin, I wouldn't buy it. My comfort zone is to be within 10% (longer term holds) and ideally around 0%. Not building a collection, and considering a wide range of coins, you can do this. If I pick out Gene Gardner as an example. I'd say most of what he bought at auction or from major dealers (1990's through 2013) was within that 0-10% range. Sometimes, the coin was worth more the day after he bought it.



The vast majority of coins I bought from local shops in the past 15 years were bought with the intention to sell for more either immediately or in a couple of months. I'd say that about 75% of them worked out well. I wouldn't have bought them otherwise. When I was visiting my favorite B&M several times each month from 2002-2011 I typically spent $1K-$2K average every visit. Some days I spent over $10K. They weren't the type that wanted to sit on anything for months, especially if it was bigger dollars. They needed to keep the cash flow rolling so they could swing big bullion deals whenever they showed up. Those were the days.

Walkerfan

If you selected nice coins and knew which ones to purchase, at the right price; I believe you could at least break-even the next day.



But I believe that it would take at least 5 years or more to experience any type of significant profit or appreciation.

brg5658

1 year later? ha...good luck.

mirabela

It depends of course on what the market does in the intervening year, but I have done more or less what you describe a handful of times before. I've made money a few times, broken even a few, and lost money a few. Worst I ever did was with a very pretty ex-Eliasberg gem better-date Barber piece, on which I lost 23%.

pennyannie

To some degree you are just out the dealer markup? That is not to bad. I know it is hard to predict the future as it can change in an hours notice nowdays. I usually use the next day on a lot of the stuff I do. If I buy today what could I get tomorrow.

BAJJERFAN

Not sure that I'd be buying today. Mite as well wait a year.

Boosibri

reminds me of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and the scene where they are drinking from the grail. Choose wisely and your results will improve. Choose poorly and you will have big problems.

bidask

I guess your talking US coins only.......!?

Coinosaurus

Can I go back just three months and buy gold

MrEureka

Typically, a good quality coin from a good dealer might be listed on his website at 20% more than his replacement cost. If you bought the coin at full price and immediately tried to sell it quickly to another dealer, you would probably be lucky to get 95% the perceived replacement cost, which would leave you with a 21% loss.

On the other hand, if you managed to get a discount from the original seller, and then you manage to get him to buy it back at his replacement cost, or even a bit more, you'll probably be looking at a 10% loss or so.

The bottom line is that if you can develop a good working relationship with a good dealer, you can dramatically reduce your transaction costs.

Boosibri

Well put MrE

mustangmanbob

Key Point: Does (anyone) want it?

If it is a classic, high eye appeal, market is at least stable AND the (new owner) has a market, then you will do OK.

If it is the "slug" that the dealer was happy to dump, even if it is a 6 figure slug, then brace yourself. If it was one that languished in inventory for years, it is doubtful the (new owner) wants it back, EVER.

As it is said about a boat, the 2nd happiest day is the day you buy it.

The happiest day is the day you sell it.

The best and easiest way to sell a (insert noun here), is to be the heir of the owner.

You have zero into it, and no emotion, so everything is gravy that you get. You may be fleeced, but you go away happy.

I had this discussion with my family, especially my wife. I have a lot of toys (trying to downsize a bit (right)). For example, my 1968 Shelby could bring high $80's one day, and $140 K the next. There is stuff in the garage, stuff in the SDB, etc. that could be $5 or $5K. Hopefully, they remember the print out in the file cabinet, but

Just in case, I took out a term life policy that MORE than covers the value of the toys. I pay for it like a regular bill from the toy box money. Wife understands that this money is so that she DOES NOT HAVE TO PANIC over DID I GET A FAIR PRICE FOR EVERY WIDGET ?

BryceM

Are we buying 2 figure slabbed widgets or six figure rarities? World coins, colonials, federal issues, or commems? I don't think the answers for the various potential categories of collecting will behave in lockstep fashion.

ARCO

Coins are priced 20%-30%...or more above what most knowledgeable buyers could turn around and resell in a true auction. Most would lose that amount if resold within a year.

Tyler

shorecoll

That's an interesting viewpoint Bob.

TwoSides2aCoin

Buy and Hold is the collector's strategy.

Ask yourself personally : "What is my objective ? " To deal and make it my trade ? To trade, and make it a deal ? To capitalize without regard for those who are immersed ? The question itself presents a peculiar introspect , looking from both sides of the aisle.

Sonorandesertrat

Originally posted by: BryceM
Are we buying 2 figure slabbed widgets or six figure rarities? World coins, colonials, federal issues, or commems? I don't think the answers for the various potential categories of collecting will behave in lockstep fashion.

WildIdea

Buying retail selling wholsale in a year? Prob not. Selling retail then probably possible to make a profit. Selling to dealers for a quick dump just says your not willing to take the time to find he end user sort of a fee to pay a consultant. Also Depends on how may clients you have and if they're trained to know what they are looking at. Some dealers out there have a huge client base and it's possible for a collector to have enough notoriety or collecting coleuges to sell to. Mostly my thoughts are to do your own leg work to maximize return or minimize loss. But that's with anything in life!