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wheres the paper market headed?

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  • HeywoodHeywood Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭
    The second underbidder sets the market



    As people leave, pull back, or tighten up, there is less competition, especially in thinly traded areas, and prices will drop.




    A witty saying proves nothing- Voltaire (1694 - 1778)



    An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor

    does the truth become error because nobody will see it. -Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869-1948)
  • HeywoodHeywood Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭
    My hometown national is one of the rarest in the state of CT with only 7 known, and 4-5 sales of the same 3 notes.

    I asked a dealer if they had interest in my note, (He and was looking for one and had bid me up before ) but he found one ( I had bid him up- because I wanted it as well, not to keep my value high).

    He said he would sit out if mine came up for bid. (He owns the B&M shop in that town)

    He used to have a few standing orders of wants for the note, but as it got to over 5K they dried up.

    Not sure what my note would fetch, but with me and him not bidding, undoubtedly less.


    A witty saying proves nothing- Voltaire (1694 - 1778)



    An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor

    does the truth become error because nobody will see it. -Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869-1948)
  • STLNATSSTLNATS Posts: 1,601 ✭✭✭
    I can't really opine on the "investment" side that this thread seems oriented toward, but I can say that it's a great time to be a collector. Due to 2 STL oriented collection on the market I bought more material last year than I had for many years, generally at very good (read cheap or at least cheapish) prices. I was able to not only finish my small STL set last year, but came across many large sized and other items I never realistically thought I'd see (or in a couple cases even suspected existed). Lots of material for a limited "market" related to great buying opportunities.



    There does seem to be a fair amount of material which continues to be offered on venues like ebay at prices which don't reflect the current market. Prices always seem to be "sticky" when prices are soft. I've seen this situation a couple of times before since I started to collect in the early 1990s. Eventually the sellers get realistic or something better comes along if one can be patient.



    Also, more information coming online/available all the time and it seems I'm coming up with new varieties again. Combined with weakening prices, it sure seems this provides great opportunities for collectors even with modest means that are willing to do their homework.



    Just MHO.

    Always interested in St Louis MO & IL metro area and Evansville IN national bank notes and Vatican/papal states coins and medals!
  • Originally posted by: STLNATS

    I can't really opine on the "investment" side that this thread seems oriented toward, but I can say that it's a great time to be a collector. Due to 2 STL oriented collection on the market I bought more material last year than I had for many years, generally at very good (read cheap or at least cheapish) prices. I was able to not only finish my small STL set last year, but came across many large sized and other items I never realistically thought I'd see (or in a couple cases even suspected existed). Lots of material for a limited "market" related to great buying opportunities.



    There does seem to be a fair amount of material which continues to be offered on venues like ebay at prices which don't reflect the current market. Prices always seem to be "sticky" when prices are soft. I've seen this situation a couple of times before since I started to collect in the early 1990s. Eventually the sellers get realistic or something better comes along if one can be patient.



    Also, more information coming online/available all the time and it seems I'm coming up with new varieties again. Combined with weakening prices, it sure seems this provides great opportunities for collectors even with modest means that are willing to do their homework.



    Just MHO.





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    Retired

  • Ive been trying to buy some gem $1000 feds 1934. on eBay. and trying to explain to the sellers that my offers are what heritage has sold the last few for. The last omg 65epq sold for 4887$ but when i mention that to the buyers they think I'm crazy and won't let theres go for around 6k. then i see the unrealistic ones price theres for over 10k. why waste everyones time. Why do sellers list at super unrealistic prices???? there a thousand of those chicago gem 1000s for sale. ridiculous
  • gnatgnat Posts: 392 ✭✭✭
    There are a few ebay sellers that list notes at retail/market prices and their inventory seems to move.



    However, there are far more ebay sellers that seem to love their notes so much, or believe that their inventory is so commendable, odd, belongs in the Olympics, is a part of speech, or even a tautology, that they can set extremely unrealistic prices. Perhaps they are just overly optimistic and hope that some guppy will snap this denominated currency at prices so high that you would need to have a time travel machine to New York City before ever realizing a profit.



    But, to the point that ebay prices are often higher than Heritage auction results. It should not come as news that auction results do not necessarily reflect retail prices. Often, ( and particularly in a weaker market and with generic material) auction results represent wholesale prices.



  • Steve_in_TampaSteve_in_Tampa Posts: 1,970 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Read an interesting article in the March/April edition of Paper Money Magazine, page 141 by Loren Gatch. He compares Stamp collecting similarities to Paper Money collecting, and the current membership trend for the SPMC, and possibly for the future. To be continued.
  • USCGCraigUSCGCraig Posts: 1,008 ✭✭
    I price my new currency at the shop at under recent auction amounts which is usually less then the Friedberg catalog value. My customers know the notes are accurately graded and are priced very fairly. So we do end up moving quite a bit of product. We don't have the mindset of "We must hold onto this so we can make that extra dollar in 5-10 years". Now super truly rare material is offered privately to some of our best customers first. Depending on how feel the upside is, we may very well keep it in the safe. But I can tell you that there are less then 10 notes in this box. We are trying to institute a plan to offer notes first in the shop for X number of days, then image them and put them on CCE. After Y number of days, we'll put the notes up as a BIN on Ebay or other venues. Finally, we'll put the note up to auction on ebay and get our money back. Get your money to work for you.

    Does anyone else do this? Obviously, I'm not talking about bulk junk stuff but quality decent items.
    Coast Guard Craig

    Looking for Denmark 1874 20-Kroner. Please offer.
  • I can only speak to US small currency and all that is selling is junk. Stuff grampy and gammy want to buy for the grand kids. Anything nice and the sharpies want to steal from you.
  • KT5SilverKT5Silver Posts: 162 ✭✭✭
    I would pay strong money for anything on my want list.

    image
  • goldengolden Posts: 9,667 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: KT5Silver
    I would pay strong money for anything on my want list.


    image
  • STLNATSSTLNATS Posts: 1,601 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: golden

    Originally posted by: KT5Silver

    I would pay strong money for anything on my want list.




    image




    +1 +1

    Always interested in St Louis MO & IL metro area and Evansville IN national bank notes and Vatican/papal states coins and medals!
  • gnatgnat Posts: 392 ✭✭✭
    There seems to be a lot of hesitancy across many sectors of the economy. Collectables, representing a non-essential purchase to most people, tend to see a more immediate softing of demand. Uncertainty, rather than a negative economy, appears to be a significant factor in this.



    The main competition for notes seems primarily from the core group of collectors...who may be pursuing rare, unusual or specialty items. That does not necessarily translate into a strong market for popular type notes or other bread and butter material.



    But, as observed above, if your personal finances permit, it could be a great time to add notes to your collection at attractive prices.



    Edited to Add: Many High Grade-Top Pop notes still seem to attract interest as well.
  • larry510larry510 Posts: 566 ✭✭
    Everything I want is still going for good money. I haven't seen too much of a drop.
  • Can somebody explain why good Middle Eastern material is going insane? For example, Egyptian pounds from 191x, 1924, 1926 tripled their price. High denominations from Lebanon and Syria from 1920-1930-s, all of royal Iraq also going crazy.
    I'm trying to find the reason for this. Maybe because of the wars some of the local collections destroyed?
    Looking for:

    1. Any The Zanzibar Government note in any condition.
  • TookybanditTookybandit Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭✭
    New collectors entering the market would be my best guess. It only takes a couple of new buyers with large pockets to dramatically change the landscape, albeit sometimes just temporarily.
  • synchrsynchr Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Alex1176
    Can somebody explain why good Middle Eastern material is going insane? For example, Egyptian pounds from 191x, 1924, 1926 tripled their price. High denominations from Lebanon and Syria from 1920-1930-s, all of royal Iraq also going crazy.
    I'm trying to find the reason for this. Maybe because of the wars some of the local collections destroyed?


    Fastest growing segment of the market, according the the PCGS speech in Tampa
  • Did they mention the reason?
    Looking for:

    1. Any The Zanzibar Government note in any condition.
  • Jim61Jim61 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Alex1176

    Can somebody explain why good Middle Eastern material is going insane? For example, Egyptian pounds from 191x, 1924, 1926 tripled their price. High denominations from Lebanon and Syria from 1920-1930-s, all of royal Iraq also going crazy.

    I'm trying to find the reason for this. Maybe because of the wars some of the local collections destroyed?




    Alex, It is kinda funny that I was asked to look for a lot of those notes at the Fun show for a dealer who could not attend. I really don't think it is because the wars destroyed collections. I am not sure, but I think it is just a renewed interest in collecting and some trying to complete sets. This is putting a demand on the market of these tough notes and the prices are reacting accordingly. I have seen this in other areas too and it is just collector demand.



    Not a definitive answer, but my thoughts based upon what I have been seeing.


    Jim61

    Looking for $1 CU FRN radar 16566561 - NOT ANY MORE, THANK YOU delistamps and TheRock!

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  • synchrsynchr Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭✭
    Classic cars keep rising and doing well, no end in sight (although I think it is a bubble)
    Originally posted by: gnat
    There seems to be a lot of hesitancy across many sectors of the economy. Collectables, representing a non-essential purchase to most people, tend to see a more immediate softing of demand. Uncertainty, rather than a negative economy, appears to be a significant factor in this.

    The main competition for notes seems primarily from the core group of collectors...who may be pursuing rare, unusual or specialty items. That does not necessarily translate into a strong market for popular type notes or other bread and butter material.

    But, as observed above, if your personal finances permit, it could be a great time to add notes to your collection at attractive prices.

    Edited to Add: Many High Grade-Top Pop notes still seem to attract interest as well.


  • AndresAndres Posts: 977 ✭✭✭
    I rather buy nice banknotes and old coins, then losing money on my savings account.
    collector of Greek banknotes - most beautifull world banknotes - Greek & Roman ancient coins.
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