wheres the paper market headed?
georgiaboy
Posts: 30 ✭✭
seems like prices are taking a nosedive. i was told by a dealer the coin market is even worse. any comments/ opinions?? any dealers wanna chime in w a comment?
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Just checking eBay, I can tell you that the Buy It Now prices by a couple of forum members haven't budged - guess they think the market is OK.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Over the past few months, I have unloaded a lot of lower end material, and have changed my focus a bit. I am also no longer willing to pay top dollar for notes, unless the note in question REALLY appeals to me.
This is a really good time to fill in those "rare note holes" in your paper money collections.
I have stuff on BST that isn't moving at all, other members are experiencing the same thing. My local coin shop is seeing the same thing, paper money is in the tank.
This is not all bad, as I work there P/T and I can earn some very nice notes for just a few hours of my time. After I catch up on a few random holds, I plan on doing hits in my local area. Lots and lots of junk boxes hold really nice treasures.
the heritage fun auction which always brought top dollar had 3 66 graded $5 ed notes. only 1 sold the other 2 didn't even get 1 bid. 1 sold later and 1 didn't sell at all. never seen that before. for 14k no less
I think just about anything you would care about has gone down. Auctions have been going downhill since CSNS 2015 started the trend.
Things sell, you just have to find where the market is.
twitter: @ActionCurrency
web: www.actioncurrency.com
Looking for CU $1 FRN 20160523 - any series or block. Please PM
Retired
Notes from Portugal colonies are not having the best market now and I was able to find really nice notes for cheap (Cabo Verde centavos from 1914, the tiger rupee from goa, etc).
1. Any The Zanzibar Government note in any condition.
Going forward, segments will continue to better than others. I think lately has been a good time to have been picking up Large Size EPQ/PPQ gold certificates. I think when the gold price rises, many more will come into this segment. Very attractive designs and much history
Yeah, I'm with Alex on world stuff. Really rare stuff is still very good, certain geographic regions, especially the Middle East and some colonial locations (like early Mali, Guinea, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, British Australasian locations, etc.) are still very strong for good material. I think a lot of good and excessively rare European stuff is coming to the market the past several months but the prices (starting prices in the case of auctions) are astronomical and it's not selling. But medium grade stuff, even as high as VF, is on the slide. When I say "on the slide" I mean that the material is for sale but dealers don't want to lower their prices to suit the climate. I've followed a couple of dealers' inventories who won't budge on prices and have had some notes for 4, 5, or more years. I guess when you don't need to sell...
What I learned in this hobby is to be patient. I really wanted a Persian toman from the 1920-s, but the dealers wanted 700-900$ for VF. So I waited a year and it came on Delcampe and I got it for 200$.
Off course there are items that are a life time opportunity. If I will see early Zanzibar I will jump on it.
1. Any The Zanzibar Government note in any condition.
Jim61
Looking for $1 CU FRN radar 16566561 - NOT ANY MORE, THANK YOU delistamps and TheRock!
Looking for $1 CU FRN radar 16977961.
Looking for $1 CU FRN 99999961 - NOT ANY MORE, THANK YOU delistamps!
Looking for $50 FRN 00000061
Looking for CU $1 FRN 20160523 - any series or block. Please PM
Retired
But I certainly wish I could get a few back...
cooled?... its ice cold. The auction houses are struggling to get material as no one wants to risk selling right now.
Yesterday was an auction for German East Africa notes at St James (London). There were some really nasty bidding wars and prices on some items went trough the roof.
So, I assume it depends on the area.
1. Any The Zanzibar Government note in any condition.
Heritage's FUN auction had almost 6,000 lots and that's not counting all the Newman material they're selling (and will sell this Spring). Somebody must be consigning!
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
A witty saying proves nothing- Voltaire (1694 - 1778)
An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor
does the truth become error because nobody will see it. -Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869-1948)
Does the gold and silver market have an effect on the currency market?
And, more broadly, what are the factors that effect demand and prices in the currency market?
Are currency collectors affected by ups and downs in the coin market to a significant degree?
And/or are there shared general economic factors at work here (e.g.: consumer confidence)?
Synchr's post raises an interesting question.
Does the gold and silver market have an effect on the currency market?
And, more broadly, what are the factors that effect demand and prices in the currency market?
Are currency collectors affected by ups and downs in the coin market to a significant degree?
And/or are there shared general economic factors at work here (e.g.: consumer confidence)?
In a nutshell, for me, it totally depends upon my economics. It's the only thing I can control. If I need/want an item and can afford it I'll try to acquire it, otherwise PASS. As for 'consumer confidence', this consumer has little confidence until economic policies have undergone some serious overhaul.
Looking for CU $1 FRN 20160523 - any series or block. Please PM
Retired
Don't know, but this is something that could be measured.
And, more broadly, what are the factors that effect demand and prices in the currency market?
Good question. Demand is most effected by the number of customers and their willingness to buy. Prices are determined by supply and demand.
Are currency collectors affected by ups and downs in the coin market to a significant degree?
My guess is that they are to some degree but it probably depends on how one defines "significant", and it's just my guess.
And/or are there shared general economic factors at work here (e.g.: consumer confidence)?
I'd say "very likely" to this one. Consumer confidence is one and disposable income is another.
Collector of US Small Size currency, Atlanta FRNs, and Georgia nationals since 1977. Researcher of small size US type - seeking serial number data for all FRN star notes, Series 1928 to 1934-D. Life member SPMC.
From my vantage point, it appeared that there were numerous Registry collectors entering the market between 2000 and 2010 and very few since then.
JMHO
I think the stock market has the collector market spooked. There was a similar drop in collectable coin, and currency prices during the great recession. The news media has a good way of putting the scare into the general public when stock prices go down. Wall Street's reputation over the past decade doesn't help matters.
JMHO
I agree with this assessment. When values of retirement funds start shrinking and/or home sales begin to slow there is a combination of less disposable income and a flight to safety and liquidity. I can be an opportunity to buy low...but only if you have the excess cash.
From my vantage point, it appeared that there were numerous Registry collectors entering the market between 2000 and 2010 and very few since then.
Up until 2011 I was only a raw note collector and didn't care about top quality at all. My first attempt at registry set building came just last year. It's not easy now as most of the top quality notes got locked up in collections long before I started. This might be turning newcomers off as there isn't a lot of this stuff to go around in top grades.
From my vantage point, it appeared that there were numerous Registry collectors entering the market between 2000 and 2010 and very few since then.
Up until 2011 I was only a raw note collector and didn't care about top quality at all. My first attempt at registry set building came just last year. It's not easy now as most of the top quality notes got locked up in collections long before I started. This might be turning newcomers off as there isn't a lot of this stuff to go around in top grades.
I'm not sure newcomers are starting with 70 EPQ 100 pounds Palestine Currency Board with a solid 1 at sn.
You need to have some knowledge and experience before you start to put serious money on notes.
1. Any The Zanzibar Government note in any condition.
From my vantage point, it appeared that there were numerous Registry collectors entering the market between 2000 and 2010 and very few since then.
Up until 2011 I was only a raw note collector and didn't care about top quality at all. My first attempt at registry set building came just last year. It's not easy now as most of the top quality notes got locked up in collections long before I started. This might be turning newcomers off as there isn't a lot of this stuff to go around in top grades.
I'm not sure newcomers are starting with 70 EPQ 100 pounds Palestine Currency Board with a solid 1 at sn.
You need to have some knowledge and experience before you start to put serious money on notes.
Not sure what that has to do with my post. I don't know anything about the foreign market or other areas and certainly not 70epq notes with serial 1. I was specifically referring to small size U.S. notes as that is what I know Kraig collects as well as myself. Grades in the 67-69PPQ range without fancy serial #'s. My point was that there aren't as many new collector's starting into the registry world as there used to be and I believe part of that is because it is just too hard now to find certain notes in high grades and also can get very expensive. That may be turning off some newbies from even trying. But you have a number of guys who got into it in the early days when the stuff was more readily available and much cheaper. They have a big advantage over the newbies who have started within the past 5 years.
I agree... TOP POP is only driving people to buy, not the opposite
Yeah but who's buying? Newcomers looking to start to get into the registry set world or the collector's and dealer's that have been around much longer with deeper pockets?
bottom line is that top pop has nothing to do with the market being in the toilet
its in the toilet for reasons external to the paper money hobby
Agreed and I certainly wasn't making that claim. I was coming up with ideas as to why not many new registry guys have appeared in the past 5 years as Kraig pointed out in his post. It could also be that the registry has lost popularity for other reasons and collector's just aren't entering their notes or want to stay out of the limelight and remain in stealth mode.
Top pop notes are still very hot and lower CU grade notes are not. That much is obvious.
Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores. Kohl's is in the tank. Retail had a soft 4th quarter. Millinnials seem to want socialism. These goings on add
to the nervousness of the economy and the last thing people want is to take up collectibles, tho they like them. Such trading is between long
established players of independent means. My business partner and his wife do antique Red Wing crocks. They recently came back from an annual
collectors show with plenty of cash from the sale of some high end items. Nothing valued under $500.00 was sold at the show by them. So there
appears to be some definite trend in the economy.
nobody gets it: "Cash Is King ! "
But I think what Colonel mentioned about Mellinials seem to want socialism, has a good amount to do with the uncertantity of people with money right now... This political uncertainty fuels many of the other issues we have mentioned here in my opinion. Anytime things are not stable or people foresee instability, they pull back...
Currency will have best long-term results over next 5 to 10 years vs. coins. Coins are sinking and sinking and sinking, especially stuff 1945+
Bullion may go up, but collector value, not sure.
kurtisjohnson is my eBay ID
http://www.ebay.com/sch/kurtisjohnson/m.html
Sometime next year / into 2018, I plan on investing in the 1947 to 1958 double mint sets. With precious metals rising, and 1945+ material in the toilet, the temptation to break up / melt those sets will be high. My local coin shop has 1949 through 1958, and they are going on the cheap and I can get by working there on weekends.
I can see a day in the next 30 or so years when those double mint sets will get respect at last, and when they do, their prices will take off.
Paper money wise, IMO, the 1928B FRNs, and the bluegreen seal 1934's (especially the mules and the stars), do not get the respect they deserve, as there are many tremendous rarities that can be had at "bargain" prices.
For small size US currency, type notes are taking a beating. But truly rare notes are still in demand.
Here's a rare small size note on eBay. Went strong.
$5 FRN 1934-A CA Mule Back Plate 637
Collector of US Small Size currency, Atlanta FRNs, and Georgia nationals since 1977. Researcher of small size US type - seeking serial number data for all FRN star notes, Series 1928 to 1934-D. Life member SPMC.
Jim61
Looking for $1 CU FRN radar 16566561 - NOT ANY MORE, THANK YOU delistamps and TheRock!
Looking for $1 CU FRN radar 16977961.
Looking for $1 CU FRN 99999961 - NOT ANY MORE, THANK YOU delistamps!
Looking for $50 FRN 00000061
The note looks fairly high grade.
Tooky, remember, the underbidder sets the market.
The winning bidder was someone else, so I still would not have won. I just like an honest auction when I can get one
Congrats Randy. It's a tough note. We were watching it too.