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2016 Investment Contest !!!! FINAL standings posted!

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Comments

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The first 3 and the last 3, will be next to impossible to beatimage
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm still shooting for right in the middle, spot 20, to win my own half oz prize, ha!
  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    Very fun to see how crappy the 3x leverage funds are for long term investing (in this case the 1 yr contest). Oil is up on the year, the 3x fund is down almost 35%. Confirms my suspicion on how horrid these funds are for investors wanting to hold for more than a day or two (which those type of short term trades aren't investing, only speculating).
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: OperationButter
    Very fun to see how crappy the 3x leverage funds are for long term investing (in this case the 1 yr contest). Oil is up on the year, the 3x fund is down almost 35%. Confirms my suspicion on how horrid these funds are for investors wanting to hold for more than a day or two (which those type of short term trades aren't investing, only speculating).

    Number one and two rankings are 3X leverage funds. I agree that they are best held short term but as the rankings show, even with their "decay," they are leading the pack. In the real world I would not hold for one year. I would make more money swithcing between the 3X leverage and its 3X inverse, which would be DSLV paired with the USLV, or DUST vs. NUGT.

    The leveraged 3X ETFs and their inverse counterparts provide opportunity to make (or loose) 3X the money in both price directions. Volatility of the underlying asset adds greater opportunity.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    While I would agree on parts of that Derry, these 3x funds do not give 3x on the money as advertised. Im still not entirely sure how the 3x oil fund is down over 30% while oil is up significantly on the year. I get the volatility but man, this one is way off.
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: OperationButter
    While I would agree on parts of that Derry, these 3x funds do not give 3x on the money as advertised. Im still not entirely sure how the 3x oil fund is down over 30% while oil is up significantly on the year. I get the volatility but man, this one is way off.

    Which oil fund is that? One must be sure they understand what the underlying asset is when dealing with a leveraged/inverse ETF/ETN. For example NUGT/DUST do not follow the gold price, they track the gold miners.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As I understand it, a 3x fund can underperform as follows (extreme example for illustration purposes):

    Invest $1000 in a 3x fund.

    Day 1: Underlying asset drops 20%, 3x fund drops 60%, loss of $600.
    Investment is now worth $400.

    Day 2: Underlying asset rises 25% to previous price, 3x fund gains 75%, gain of $300.
    Investment is now worth $700.

    Net loss is $300.

    Alternatively:

    Day 1: Underlying asset rises 25%, 3x fund gains 75%, gain of $750.
    Investment is now worth $1750.

    Day 2: Underlying asset drops 20% to previous price, 3x fund drops 60%, loss of $1050.
    Investment is now worth $700.

    Net loss is $300.

    Rinse and repeat.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,293 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This "buying on the dip " ____, is costing me.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: TwoSides2aCoin
    This "buying on the dip " ____, is costing me.

    Dip it more with ebay bonus bucks. image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • Musky1011Musky1011 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭✭
    Update?
    Pilgrim Clock and Gift Shop.. Expert clock repair since 1844

    Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA

    http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,293 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb

    Originally posted by: TwoSides2aCoin

    This "buying on the dip " ____, is costing me.


    Dip it more with ebay bonus bucks. image







    I use one to offset the other.

    With respect to the investment strategy, I am up in the real world, with my pick in this contest.

    Humbly, I might add.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wings, at least let us know that you're doing alright! If time is at a premium, the update can always wait.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,381 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Likely on vacation or something.

    I'm sure he's fine.



    'tis the time of year to finish off summer vacations and enjoy life a bit image

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭
    Still here, I was kinda hibernating after the cohodk slam the other day. image Time has definitely been at a premium over the last several weeks.



    image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hey Wings, great to hear from you and thanks for the update,



    didn't expect to win again this year, but still hoping to finish in the 50th percentile!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You know I love ya Wings.image I did take the opposite side of your call though. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk

    I did take the opposite side of your call though. image




    Did ya? Can't find your pick in the table



    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Look out, big mover, coming through, lol.

    image
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Baley
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    I did take the opposite side of your call though. image


    Did ya? Can't find your pick in the table



    I took the other side of Wings' call of more highs for JNUG. I closed that trade yesterday.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Almost 2/3 of folks in the black, and double digits aplenty... Impressive.
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭✭✭
    goat is plus 800 %, that is bananas!!!!
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Cakes
    goat is plus 800 %, that is bananas!!!!


    Now 'goat's only up 615%. Sorry for his loss, lol. image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: renman95

    Originally posted by: Cakes

    goat is plus 800 %, that is bananas!!!!




    Now 'goat's only up 615%. Sorry for his loss, lol. image





    down to "only" a triple...

    Dang calendar and "regression toward the mean" image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What happened to Wingsrule?
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭
    He's still around! I was busy celebrating as my last place streak has ended!!



    Of course, this means I will actually have to pay out the last place prize this year.



    image
  • djmdjm Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How does one lose all of their money? Was he robbed at gun point?
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: djm
    How does one lose all of their money? Was he robbed at gun point?


    Atlas Resource Partners went Bankrupt....

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • djmdjm Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: OPA
    Originally posted by: djm
    How does one lose all of their money? Was he robbed at gun point?


    Atlas Resource Partners went Bankrupt....



    Back in the day I made a lot of money buying positions in bankrupt companies
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭

    My apologies as I haven't been able to keep this as updated as it has been in prior contests. I had great intentions to get this updated this past weekend so we could have a pre- and post- election view, but it just didn't happen.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,084 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No worries (I'm not in anyway)

    I'd think hysterical closes before and after could be used

    I've noticed even the 3x mostly do not hit 3x %age changes

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At least one of the entrants is up 34% in the past week. Still down for the year, but perhaps the lows are in the past ;)

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wouldn't it be interesting if pragmaticgoat went negative by year end?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • @cohodk said:
    Wouldn't it be interesting if pragmaticgoat went negative by year end?

    Always a possibility, I wanted a all or nothing pick for the year but might end up right back where I started. Great entertainment if nothing else :)

    BST references:
    jdimmick;Gerard;wondercoin;claychaser;agentjim007;CCC2010;guitarwes;TAMU15;Zubie;mariner67;segoja;Smittys;kaz;CARDSANDCOINS;FadeToBlack;
    jrt103;tizofthe;bronze6827;mkman;Scootersdad;AllCoinsRule;coindeuce;dmarks;piecesofme; and many more
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yeah, but what a ride! At one point, Joe was up over 800%. It opens your eyes to "the possibilities", albeit with the attendant amount of risk.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭

    Thanks again for the time you put in Wings..

    Yep, NUGT and all of those 3X ETFs are never dull.

    Of course, you could have lost your mind and put in $40,000 in DRYS just a week ago and
    if you sold at the high today, you would've made a cool million. You would have to be nuts though, it's always been a lousy stock. I'm sure soon enough, the shorts will make all those millions back..crazy trading on DRYS.

    Fate and Halo catching a bid Baley?

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Fate and Halo catching a bid Baley?

    The biotechs are indeed bouncing off their lows of November 7-8, and some issues are up 50, 60, even 70% in the past week

    :Do:)

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭

  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭

    My original position was 100% short Linn Energy (LINE) at $1.29 that is
    now LINEQ trading at 20 cents.

  • bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭

    @s4ny said:
    My original position was 100% short Linn Energy (LINE) at $1.29 that is
    now LINEQ trading at 20 cents.

    Nice short, especially when you get a Q on the end.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2, 2016 6:38PM

    Hoping for a good month and a fun finish to the year, best of luck, all!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,293 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It is a lesson and a fun thread.

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭

    s4ny: you are correct, I overwrote your starting price a few updates ago. Sorry for the inconvenience and it has been corrected in this update.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Swing for the fences, sometimes hit home run, sometimes strike out, less times get on base.
    Aim over infielders, more often get singles and doubles. Both strategies have the time and place...

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭

    More than half up, good to see.

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 16, 2016 5:25PM

    2 weeks to go, and pragmaticgoat's 42 week stranglehold on first place has ended.

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If only I'd not done a 50/50.

  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think you missed the word "short" in my pick.

    ...let's see I know it's there somewhere.

    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,293 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I took some profits.

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