Very fun to see how crappy the 3x leverage funds are for long term investing (in this case the 1 yr contest). Oil is up on the year, the 3x fund is down almost 35%. Confirms my suspicion on how horrid these funds are for investors wanting to hold for more than a day or two (which those type of short term trades aren't investing, only speculating).
Originally posted by: OperationButter Very fun to see how crappy the 3x leverage funds are for long term investing (in this case the 1 yr contest). Oil is up on the year, the 3x fund is down almost 35%. Confirms my suspicion on how horrid these funds are for investors wanting to hold for more than a day or two (which those type of short term trades aren't investing, only speculating).
Number one and two rankings are 3X leverage funds. I agree that they are best held short term but as the rankings show, even with their "decay," they are leading the pack. In the real world I would not hold for one year. I would make more money swithcing between the 3X leverage and its 3X inverse, which would be DSLV paired with the USLV, or DUST vs. NUGT.
The leveraged 3X ETFs and their inverse counterparts provide opportunity to make (or loose) 3X the money in both price directions. Volatility of the underlying asset adds greater opportunity.
While I would agree on parts of that Derry, these 3x funds do not give 3x on the money as advertised. Im still not entirely sure how the 3x oil fund is down over 30% while oil is up significantly on the year. I get the volatility but man, this one is way off.
Originally posted by: OperationButter While I would agree on parts of that Derry, these 3x funds do not give 3x on the money as advertised. Im still not entirely sure how the 3x oil fund is down over 30% while oil is up significantly on the year. I get the volatility but man, this one is way off.
Which oil fund is that? One must be sure they understand what the underlying asset is when dealing with a leveraged/inverse ETF/ETN. For example NUGT/DUST do not follow the gold price, they track the gold miners.
My apologies as I haven't been able to keep this as updated as it has been in prior contests. I had great intentions to get this updated this past weekend so we could have a pre- and post- election view, but it just didn't happen.
@cohodk said:
Wouldn't it be interesting if pragmaticgoat went negative by year end?
Always a possibility, I wanted a all or nothing pick for the year but might end up right back where I started. Great entertainment if nothing else
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Yep, NUGT and all of those 3X ETFs are never dull.
Of course, you could have lost your mind and put in $40,000 in DRYS just a week ago and
if you sold at the high today, you would've made a cool million. You would have to be nuts though, it's always been a lousy stock. I'm sure soon enough, the shorts will make all those millions back..crazy trading on DRYS.
Swing for the fences, sometimes hit home run, sometimes strike out, less times get on base.
Aim over infielders, more often get singles and doubles. Both strategies have the time and place...
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Very fun to see how crappy the 3x leverage funds are for long term investing (in this case the 1 yr contest). Oil is up on the year, the 3x fund is down almost 35%. Confirms my suspicion on how horrid these funds are for investors wanting to hold for more than a day or two (which those type of short term trades aren't investing, only speculating).
Number one and two rankings are 3X leverage funds. I agree that they are best held short term but as the rankings show, even with their "decay," they are leading the pack. In the real world I would not hold for one year. I would make more money swithcing between the 3X leverage and its 3X inverse, which would be DSLV paired with the USLV, or DUST vs. NUGT.
The leveraged 3X ETFs and their inverse counterparts provide opportunity to make (or loose) 3X the money in both price directions. Volatility of the underlying asset adds greater opportunity.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
While I would agree on parts of that Derry, these 3x funds do not give 3x on the money as advertised. Im still not entirely sure how the 3x oil fund is down over 30% while oil is up significantly on the year. I get the volatility but man, this one is way off.
Which oil fund is that? One must be sure they understand what the underlying asset is when dealing with a leveraged/inverse ETF/ETN. For example NUGT/DUST do not follow the gold price, they track the gold miners.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Invest $1000 in a 3x fund.
Day 1: Underlying asset drops 20%, 3x fund drops 60%, loss of $600.
Investment is now worth $400.
Day 2: Underlying asset rises 25% to previous price, 3x fund gains 75%, gain of $300.
Investment is now worth $700.
Net loss is $300.
Alternatively:
Day 1: Underlying asset rises 25%, 3x fund gains 75%, gain of $750.
Investment is now worth $1750.
Day 2: Underlying asset drops 20% to previous price, 3x fund drops 60%, loss of $1050.
Investment is now worth $700.
Net loss is $300.
Rinse and repeat.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
This "buying on the dip " ____, is costing me.
Dip it more with ebay bonus bucks.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
This "buying on the dip " ____, is costing me.
Dip it more with ebay bonus bucks.
I use one to offset the other.
With respect to the investment strategy, I am up in the real world, with my pick in this contest.
Humbly, I might add.
I knew it would happen.
I'm sure he's fine.
'tis the time of year to finish off summer vacations and enjoy life a bit
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
didn't expect to win again this year, but still hoping to finish in the 50th percentile!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I did take the opposite side of your call though.
Did ya? Can't find your pick in the table
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I did take the opposite side of your call though.
Did ya? Can't find your pick in the table
I took the other side of Wings' call of more highs for JNUG. I closed that trade yesterday.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
goat is plus 800 %, that is bananas!!!!
Now 'goat's only up 615%. Sorry for his loss, lol.
goat is plus 800 %, that is bananas!!!!
Now 'goat's only up 615%. Sorry for his loss, lol.
down to "only" a triple...
Dang calendar and "regression toward the mean"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Of course, this means I will actually have to pay out the last place prize this year.
How does one lose all of their money? Was he robbed at gun point?
Atlas Resource Partners went Bankrupt....
How does one lose all of their money? Was he robbed at gun point?
Atlas Resource Partners went Bankrupt....
Back in the day I made a lot of money buying positions in bankrupt companies
My apologies as I haven't been able to keep this as updated as it has been in prior contests. I had great intentions to get this updated this past weekend so we could have a pre- and post- election view, but it just didn't happen.
No worries (I'm not in anyway)
I'd think hysterical closes before and after could be used
I've noticed even the 3x mostly do not hit 3x %age changes
At least one of the entrants is up 34% in the past week. Still down for the year, but perhaps the lows are in the past
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Wouldn't it be interesting if pragmaticgoat went negative by year end?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Always a possibility, I wanted a all or nothing pick for the year but might end up right back where I started. Great entertainment if nothing else
jdimmick;Gerard;wondercoin;claychaser;agentjim007;CCC2010;guitarwes;TAMU15;Zubie;mariner67;segoja;Smittys;kaz;CARDSANDCOINS;FadeToBlack;
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Yeah, but what a ride! At one point, Joe was up over 800%. It opens your eyes to "the possibilities", albeit with the attendant amount of risk.
I knew it would happen.
Thanks again for the time you put in Wings..
Yep, NUGT and all of those 3X ETFs are never dull.
Of course, you could have lost your mind and put in $40,000 in DRYS just a week ago and
if you sold at the high today, you would've made a cool million. You would have to be nuts though, it's always been a lousy stock. I'm sure soon enough, the shorts will make all those millions back..crazy trading on DRYS.
Fate and Halo catching a bid Baley?
Fate and Halo catching a bid Baley?
The biotechs are indeed bouncing off their lows of November 7-8, and some issues are up 50, 60, even 70% in the past week
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
My original position was 100% short Linn Energy (LINE) at $1.29 that is
now LINEQ trading at 20 cents.
Nice short, especially when you get a Q on the end.
Hoping for a good month and a fun finish to the year, best of luck, all!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
It is a lesson and a fun thread.
s4ny: you are correct, I overwrote your starting price a few updates ago. Sorry for the inconvenience and it has been corrected in this update.
Swing for the fences, sometimes hit home run, sometimes strike out, less times get on base.
Aim over infielders, more often get singles and doubles. Both strategies have the time and place...
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
More than half up, good to see.
2 weeks to go, and pragmaticgoat's 42 week stranglehold on first place has ended.
If only I'd not done a 50/50.
I think you missed the word "short" in my pick.
...let's see I know it's there somewhere.
I took some profits.