What’s Hot, What’s Not: The US Rare Gold Coin Market in 2015/2016
Boosibri
Posts: 12,330 ✭✭✭✭✭
The thought had crossed my mom makes mind when I first read it which was before your post.
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The thought had crossed "my mom makes mind" ??? Computer gremlins? More slang that I do not understand? Auto-correct gone wild?
The thought had crossed my mom makes mind when I first read it which was before your post.
Errr...
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
It's also good to hear that the coin market is doing well:
When I began touting the collectability of Civil War gold coinage in 2010, I had no idea that so many new collectors would enter the market and that so many other dealers would follow my lead. Today, there are dozens of serious Civil War collectors and their collections range from simple (P Mint double eagles) to all-encompassing (all coins struck at the various U.S. mints from 1861 through 1865).
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Latin American Collection
If you quote retail to a dealer and they turn you down it is their fault?
I didn't quote anything but he knew what I paid. And his offer was about $3k under that...for a "hot" coin.
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
Can't say as I know DW but not at all shocked by such; I guess that's one reason
I don't sell a lot - after a while it seems I can pick and choose if it is basically a
good coin, whatever that is.
Well, just Love coins, period.
EAC 6024
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
It's funny that he feels affordable early gold is hot. A early $2.50 I offered to sell back to him was given an offer of thousands under what I paid. It appears that coins are only hot when you can buy them cheap enough.
Just think HOW lucky you were to get an offer, if it was a dead series.....
We all know they work on 3 to 5 percent margins on the "hot stuff" cause we have been told that a million times.
In a perfect world you only need 10 years to break even on most coins so pay up for the good ones.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
The dealer offered $3K below what you paid for it retail but you have not told us what your purchase price was so we have no way of knowing whether he offered you 50% of retail or 85% of retail, the latter for example being better than the 83% you would expect to realize at auction and without the uncertainty associated with selling at auction. And while Pennyannie’s post may have been brimming with sarcasm, Winter has said in his blogs that there are some coins he will not buy because they will sit forever in inventory. So perhaps his definition of hot is a coin that sits in inventory for less than forever.
CG
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
'Hot' is also a useful (to the seller) marketing term in the coin business.
Bingo
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
It's funny that he feels affordable early gold is hot. A early $2.50 I offered to sell back to him was given an offer of thousands under what I paid. It appears that coins are only hot when you can buy them cheap enough.
Ankur tax
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
My inner wise a.s.s. demands that I suggest marketing gold commems as a bargain compared to Indian Quarter Eagles.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I paid $15,500 for the coin in 2013, which was a 1807 $2.50 in PCGS XF45 CAC. As per his article, this type of coin is hot. It's not easy to find this type without issues but I had to sell it. The collector who bought it was very happy to have it and was looking for an example for some time.
What did you get for it?
Coin Rarities Online
I will never understand why someone would buy something and then sell it in such a short period. In all likelihood I will never know how bad I did as I never plan to sell anything. A true collector! But then again you never know...
You've been very LUCKY never to have had to sell a coin, whether you've owned it for one month or ten years. Kudos. So, if someone needs to sell a coin they're not a collector? Rather narrow thinking, don't you think? I'm all on board with Ankur J on this one. Seller makes 20% on sell side. 20% on buy side, then 20 % on sell side again from a good customer? When I do choose to sell, and not in a hurry, bet your hind that they will be competing for the rights to sell my coins. A buyers/sellers loyalty is to themselves, and rightfully so. Anyone espousing otherwise is marketing something.
US Civil War coinage
Historical Medals
You offered me this coin as well asking $15,500 if I recall and I passed. Here are the comps:
Last P45 - $11,165
Highest 45 ever sold at auction: $11,165
PCGS guides $15,000
Last 50 to sell: $11,750
2013 a P50 sold for $18k
P40 sold in 2014 for $12,470
Feels to me like $13,500 is about full retail for a decent P45 CAC, maybe up to $15k if the coin is really an "A".
If a dealer offered you $13k do you not think that this was a fair offer given the market reference points. Checking our PM's I offered you $13.5k.
Congrats on finding someone to bail you out.
Latin American Collection
It's funny that he feels affordable early gold is hot. A early $2.50 I offered to sell back to him was given an offer of thousands under what I paid. It appears that coins are only hot when you can buy them cheap enough.
As others have already pointed out, the fact that a coin is "hot" does not mean that you are automatically entitled to a profit. (For clarity, "hot" means that a coin is in strong demand and trending higher.) And as others have also pointed out, a dealer typically buys at one price and sells at another. Nothing about this transaction is surprising, except that Ankur was surprised to learn what is obvious to the rest of us.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
What is amazing is how many members have PM'd me saying they had a similar experience with DW, but I am the only one who came out and said it. I know you get along well with him, and that is fine. I am just stating the facts here and find it amusing how a "hot" coin by his list is worth thousands less than what he sold it for. Also when looking at comps, please include whether the coins were CAC'd or not, as very few of these pass CAC guidelines. I discussed the coin with JA and he called it A+ for the grade.
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
I will never understand why someone would buy something and then sell it in such a short period. In all likelihood I will never know how bad I did as I never plan to sell anything. A true collector! But then again you never know...
You've been very LUCKY never to have had to sell a coin, whether you've owned it for one month or ten years. Kudos. So, if someone needs to sell a coin they're not a collector? Rather narrow thinking, don't you think? I'm all on board with Ankur J on this one. Seller makes 20% on sell side. 20% on buy side, then 20 % on sell side again from a good customer? When I do choose to sell, and not in a hurry, bet your hind that they will be competing for the rights to sell my coins. A buyers/sellers loyalty is to themselves, and rightfully so. Anyone espousing otherwise is marketing something.
I have heard this "true collector" nonsense more than once on this board (maybe from the same poster). It seems like an absurd viewpoint. Buying and never selling is hoarding. Pruning, refining, adapting to changing tastes/budget seems a lot more like true collecting to me. I suppose if you have nearly unlimited funds it's not a problem to tie them up.
I remember DW making a statement years ago that all other dealers are something along the line of crooks and scammers in a blog. Remind you of any other outfit?
I have read those comments many times penned by "she who shall not be named."
He was my buyers agent in a Stacks Bowers auction for a PCGS Au-50 piece. It was well worth the 5% fee to have him represent me. He/I won the coin for $57,500 + 5%.
I really liked the coin. Now comes the interesting part. It was a lot of money to have in one coin. So, about 3 years later I contacted him and talked of selling it. I told him that while I had enjoyed owning it I wanted to diversify and have the money in coins that could appreciate more. He gave it some thought and recommended high quality early gold and proof gold. We talked about my 70-cc and how I had been fortunate to own a condition census coin for 3 years. I decided to have him market it for me. He was able to find a buyer and I sold it for a couple thousand profit.
That is no small feat considering the auction 17.5% fee, his first 5% buyers fee and his sellers fee. He sold me an 1812 half eagle Pcgs 63-Cac and an 1866 quarter eagle pf 64 ucam. I am not a wealthy person merely a mail carrier. Doug felt that these coins would meet my criteria for diversification and future price appreciation.
Doug treated me well. I appreciated it. I feel as if he is a dealer with integrity and was upfront in all of his dealings with me.
Merry Christmas to all and I hope that you find some coins under your tree!
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Joseph J. Singleton - First Superintendent of the U.S. Branch Mint in Dahlonega Georgia
Findley Ridge Collection
About Findley Ridge
When I was looking to acquire an 1870 cc eagle several years ago I knew that Doug Winter was one to contact. I had read his books on Carson City gold many years ago. I never dreamed that I'd have the funds for a good quality piece. Having inherited some money I did.
He was my buyers agent in a Stacks Bowers auction for a PCGS Au-50 piece. It was well worth the 5% fee to have him represent me. He/I won the coin for $57,500 + 5%.
I really liked the coin. Now comes the interesting part. It was a lot of money to have in one coin. So, about 3 years later I contacted him and talked of selling it. I told him that while I had enjoyed owning it I wanted to diversify and have the money in coins that could appreciate more. He gave it some thought and recommended high quality early gold and proof gold. We talked about my 70-cc and how I had been fortunate to own a condition census coin for 3 years. I decided to have him market it for me. He was able to find a buyer and I sold it for a couple thousand profit.
That is no small feat considering the auction 17.5% fee, his first 5% buyers fee and his sellers fee. He sold me an 1812 half eagle Pcgs 63-Cac and an 1866 quarter eagle pf 64 ucam. I am not a wealthy person merely a mail carrier. Doug felt that these coins would meet my criteria for diversification and future price appreciation.
Doug treated me well. I appreciated it. I feel as if he is a dealer with integrity and was upfront in all of his dealings with me.
Merry Christmas to all and I hope that you find some coins under your tree!
Tom, Great story.
It's funny that he feels affordable early gold is hot. A early $2.50 I offered to sell back to him was given an offer of thousands under what I paid. It appears that coins are only hot when you can buy them cheap enough.
You paid $15,500 for an original cac POP 1 early date $2.5 in 2013 when the market was nice and hot.
2 years later when the market is down 20-30% across the board-gold being down 30%+
You get offered 20% back today when the market is down 20-30% across the board;
a non cac pcgs AU50 piece sold for $11,750 demonstrating the new market levels and you think that he was trying to gyp you? i think $12,500 was a very fair offer and probably more than it would have realized if it went for auction.
Further Im sure that that offer was higher than most other dealers (or at least within 2-3% of your other best offer.)
A better question to ask is that if the market now has dropped 20-30% but your selling price remained at the levels that you purchased it at, would you not be doing even a worse injustice to the person you sold the coin to then you feel doug did to you?
Brian,
What is amazing is how many members have PM'd me saying they had a similar experience with DW, but I am the only one who came out and said it. I know you get along well with him, and that is fine. I am just stating the facts here and find it amusing how a "hot" coin by his list is worth thousands less than what he sold it for. Also when looking at comps, please include whether the coins were CAC'd or not, as very few of these pass CAC guidelines. I discussed the coin with JA and he called it A+ for the grade.
The coin is still a hot coin in that if it is priced fairly and an attractive coin it has the ability to sell very quickly. I agree 100% that it is still a very hot coin.
As you also pointed out john saw the coin and thought it was a an A+ coin. What did John offer you? I think we all can agree that john is a big player for such coins. My guess is that he offered no more than $13,000 for it as well.
Doug's expertise in gold is uncontested in the industry and he buys PQ pieces and and sells for PQ price.
You felt the price was justifiable back in 2013 (when that coin wholesale for $13,500) and to now bash Doug because you felt his 2015 offer was not inline with what you paid seems very unfair.
Brian,
What is amazing is how many members have PM'd me saying they had a similar experience with DW, but I am the only one who came out and said it. I know you get along well with him, and that is fine. I am just stating the facts here and find it amusing how a "hot" coin by his list is worth thousands less than what he sold it for. Also when looking at comps, please include whether the coins were CAC'd or not, as very few of these pass CAC guidelines. I discussed the coin with JA and he called it A+ for the grade.
Doug has always offered me aggressive prices for coins I have sold him compared to other dealers for PQ gold within his interest. A dealer must make a profit to stay in buisness. Thus he is not going to pay $15,500 for a coin he can sell at that price point. You paid retail and expected him to pay you retail for the coin shortly afterward?
Best, SH
It's funny that he feels affordable early gold is hot. A early $2.50 I offered to sell back to him was given an offer of thousands under what I paid. It appears that coins are only hot when you can buy them cheap enough.
You paid $15,500 for an original cac POP 1 early date $2.5 in 2013 when the market was nice and hot.
2 years later when the market is down 20-30% across the board-gold being down 30%+
You get offered 20% back today when the market is down 20-30% across the board;
a non cac pcgs AU50 piece sold for $11,750 demonstrating the new market levels and you think that he was trying to gyp you? i think $12,500 was a very fair offer and probably more than it would have realized if it went for auction.
Further Im sure that that offer was higher than most other dealers (or at least within 2-3% of your other best offer.)
A better question to ask is that if the market now has dropped 20-30% but your selling price remained at the levels that you purchased it at, would you not be doing even a worse injustice to the person you sold the coin to then you feel doug did to you?
If the market is down, why is this type of coin on his hot list? And if it is a hot coin, why would a dealer who specializes in gold not make a more aggressive offer on it?
And no I never expected him to pay the full price of what I paid, but I did expect a better offer than $3000 back. John's offer was higher than Doug's FWIW.
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
It's funny that he feels affordable early gold is hot. A early $2.50 I offered to sell back to him was given an offer of thousands under what I paid. It appears that coins are only hot when you can buy them cheap enough.
You paid $15,500 for an original cac POP 1 early date $2.5 in 2013 when the market was nice and hot.
2 years later when the market is down 20-30% across the board-gold being down 30%+
You get offered 20% back today when the market is down 20-30% across the board;
a non cac pcgs AU50 piece sold for $11,750 demonstrating the new market levels and you think that he was trying to gyp you? i think $12,500 was a very fair offer and probably more than it would have realized if it went for auction.
Further Im sure that that offer was higher than most other dealers (or at least within 2-3% of your other best offer.)
A better question to ask is that if the market now has dropped 20-30% but your selling price remained at the levels that you purchased it at, would you not be doing even a worse injustice to the person you sold the coin to then you feel doug did to you?
If the market is down, why is this type of coin on his hot list? And if it is a hot coin, why would a dealer who specializes in gold not make a more aggressive offer on it?
And no I never expected him to pay the full price of what I paid, but I did expect a better offer than $3000 back. John's offer was higher than Doug's FWIW.
How much higher was John's offer?
Further, a coin on a hot list means "a coin that is fairly priced/slightly higher will sell easily" Ie-the types of coins Doug specified.
A non hot coin is something that meets resistance more easily and does not fly off the shelf (as doug correctly pointed out $2.5 indians, commem gold, early $20's and things that are dipped and stripped.)
Come on man, even a decent prostitute (if you can find one) needs to make a living.
I believe the figures I mentioned are correct, if not somebody can correct me please.
Most dealers always want to act like they have to overpay to get the high quality coin they are offering to sell you, the market is hot and blah, blah, blah
While many say the coin market is tanking for the common widget stuff I would not say this coin is a widget. If this hot coin was going to sit in inventory for a year I could understand the 3k under offer but
Seller sells coin for 15,500 and most likely made 3 to 5k on the sale, offers to buy back at 12,500 and plans to place it pretty quick at 16k or so. Pretty decent $$ on the dollar investment there.
Now all that said, I would NEVER go the above route, I will find my own buyer and that way I don't have to deal with the frustration of hearing the double talk.
I would be more interested in the original purchase details, was the coin discounted for the listing price, what was said about the coin and how much time was spent getting the deal done.
The above is nothing compared to the one way dealer that sells franklins and has a tv show
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I am with AnkurJ on this one, I would expect a specialized dealer to be a stronger buyer than John on a Hot coin. If you are going to run blogs and market reports I think you should back it up compared to a dealer who does not do aggressive marketing and name exposure
Most dealers always want to act like they have to overpay to get the high quality coin they are offering to sell you, the market is hot and blah, blah, blah
While many say the coin market is tanking for the common widget stuff I would not say this coin is a widget. If this hot coin was going to sit in inventory for a year I could understand the 3k under offer but
Seller sells coin for 15,500 and most likely made 3 to 5k on the sale, offers to buy back at 12,500 and plans to place it pretty quick at 16k or so. Pretty decent $$ on the dollar investment there.
Now all that said, I would NEVER go the above route, I will find my own buyer and that way I don't have to deal with the frustration of hearing the double talk.
I would be more interested in the original purchase details, was the coin discounted for the listing price, what was said about the coin and how much time was spent getting the deal done.
The above is nothing compared to the one way dealer that sells franklins and has a tv show
I would guess that doug paid $14,000-$14,500 back in 2013 for this coin. He probably market it up 10% and got to $15,500.
If Doug has a 10% markup then in order to sell it for the 20% discounted price today he would have to pay $12,500 in order to sell for $13,500 which is what is happening.
I am curious how much over $12,500 john offered and would guess that it was not more than $13,000. John's markup is apx 3% so if he offered $13,000 he could ask $13,400-$13,500; which is the same asking price as DW.
DW would probably not want to stock this coin to make 3-4% and therefor gave a lower offer.
The point I am trying to give is that I feel DW's offer was very fair and inline with today's pricing and it seems that the bashing that DW would offer 20% on a "hot" item in a down market is really unfair.
As others have already pointed out, the fact that a coin is "hot" does not mean that you are automatically entitled to a profit. (For clarity, "hot" means that a coin is in strong demand and trending higher.) And as others have also pointed out, a dealer typically buys at one price and sells at another..
This.
Relatively speaking to the coin market overall, the early gold coin market is very thin. So even moreso a small change in demand (more collectors interested and buying) can turn an area hot. Nobody is in a position to speak about this better than Doug. His list makes sense to me.
Hopefully he is right in giving collector quality Classic Head Gold a runner-up slot. And hopefully that means that collector interest is picking up. I'll venture to say that no gold series has more dreck in its midst than the Classic Heads.
I paid $15,500 for the coin in 2013, which was a 1807 $2.50 in PCGS XF45 CAC. As per his article, this type of coin is hot. It's not easy to find this type without issues but I had to sell it. The collector who bought it was very happy to have it and was looking for an example for some time.
So at 3k less he offered you about 81% of the sale price.
I would say in the ballpark from a dealer but not the strongest buyback price.
I don't know what the series has done since 2013.
To me a 'hot coin 'is one desired by both dealers and collectors alike and it sounds like you did the right thing to find a collector who presumably paid you more.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
PCGS AU 50 and 50+ were slight winners in the last 3 years, up around 5%. 53 and 53+ were a bit stronger.
I'm with the Fonz on this one and other joining in his sentiment. Besides the way Ankur aired this out is poor form. Extremely poor form. I've yet to buy a coin from Doug but I will now for sure.
mark
Me too.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Latin American Collection
He wrote:
Had DW simply corrected his headline to:
What I expect to be Hot in the US Rare Gold Coin Market in 2016
OR
What's Hot, The US Rare Coin Market in 2016
In all fairness to Doug, he did state in his blog
What are some of the areas which, in my opinion, look to be hot in 2016?
The focus of his blog was to attempt to predict what he felt WILL be hot in 2016 not what is hot NOW in 2015.
i do think while I felt Doug's blog was useful and informative, I think there was much mis-interpretation of his blog causing this much of thread to be a big ado about nothing.
I happen to be a fan of Doug as a dealer, by the way.
I caution the moderators NOT to remove this thread as it is a perfect example of how slightly imperfect headline writing can create a whole lot of misinterpretation!
It is no surprise to me that a specialist dealer is more likely to make stronger offers to established customers. Based upon the existing relationship he realizes that the higher offer will be offset by future sales to the same customer. Relationship building works both ways.
Obviously the OP has a relationship with JA so the higher offer does not surprise me. And based upon his post his relationship with DW does not exist or is rocky at best.
I have known DW for years and I respect him as one of the few true Dahlonega experts, but I am not an established customer. Over the past 15 years I have been collecting Dahlonega I have only purchased one coin from him. I paid very strong money as it is a special coin and I suspect the only reason I got it was because the price was higher than any of his established customers were willing to pay when first shots were offered. It was a very straight forward and fair transaction, but with that said if I were to sell the coin I doubt I would get as strong of an offer from him as I would my go to dealer. Because, if you didn't read it above, Relationships matter!
Joseph J. Singleton - First Superintendent of the U.S. Branch Mint in Dahlonega Georgia
Findley Ridge Collection
About Findley Ridge
The unintended subject of this thread has burned more bridges than Sherman marching through the South in 1864. (While I do not know if this is historically correct, it sounds dramatic enough
Other than perhaps your intellect/talent, your relationships are your most important and valuable asset, in your career, your personal life, and, yes, in the coin hobby. Some people never learn.
Well said as usual
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......