Classic Commemorative Market

erwindoc

Up, down or flat? Good time to pick up some nice pieces or wait?

Justacommeman

Outside of monster toners in high grades the market has been stagnet to down seems like ever since I've been collecting the series



mark

etexmike

The commem market has been flat for some time.



I would actually like to see it go down a bit more until I can finish my 50 piece set.



Then skyrocket.





Mike

CommemKing

Down and flat. Great deals out there.

mannie gray

I think the best time to buy is when a series is out of favor, and that''s the case with commems.

Markets usually are somewhat cyclic, and it wouldn't be impossible to envision the series gaining traction and interest.

66+/67 coins are available now for less than 65s cost 20+ years ago.

If you like them and can pick up eye appealing coins and can afford to sit on them for a while, I would say go for it!

But it's really easy to spend other people's money!

roadrunner

Originally posted by: mannie gray

I think the best time to buy is when a series is out of favor, and that''s the case with commems.

Markets usually are somewhat cyclic, and it wouldn't be impossible to envision the series gaining traction and interest.

66+/67 coins are available now for less than 65s cost 20+ years ago.

If you like them and can pick up eye appealing coins and can afford to sit on them for a while, I would say go for it!

But it's really easy to spend other people's money!

Gem white commems have been out of favor for 25 years. So that's certainly on your side. Just don't be surprised if it goes to 50 years. The MS66+ coins of today...and maybe even some 67's are the MS65's of 1989. That's called gradeflation. It's not an apples to apples comparison. I remember owning a killer toner Huguenot in 1989 that cost $1650 in MS65. That same coin today would be a 66 or a 66+...and worth a lot less than what it was in 1989. The pops in June 1989 were 150 MS65, 25 MS66, and 2 MS67. It was literally a scarce coin in MS65....only because so few had been submitted in those first few years. Today, there are 989/379/67 in those same grades. So yesterday's MS65 is today's higher end MS66. To match that same $1650-$1850 back then, you'd need a 66+ or 66++ today.

kiyote

I think there's more nice MS66 coins out there than there are collectors. In some cases MS66s are selling barely above what a 65 will run you.

pennyannie

They have been dead forever and. Nobody seems to have tried to market them in the last 10 years, so maybe there Is hope around the corner

metalmeister

Seems like 1995 with the commem market. Mintages in the thousands. What's not to like. Many are off the market at these low prices IMHO. I'm still waiting for better days ahead.

RedTiger

Maybe 10 years ago, I bought a couple of them. My thinking was like some on this thread, the prices are depressed, the bottom is near.



Ten years later, no bottom in sight. I have no desire to try and complete the 50 coin set.

msch1man

Outside of the top 1% or less of the quality spectrum, the current supply of classic commems greatly exceeds the demand for them (from what I can tell). Outside of this top 1% of monster toners and top pops, prices are down substantially. And really, this top 1% is really more likely the top .1% (or less) given the quantity of supply. As noted above as a word of caution, you do need to be careful drawing general comparisons as sometimes it's not an apples to apples comparison.



My take...if you ever plan on putting together a classic commem set, it sure 'seems' like a good time to be doing so, especially if you've got an eye for quality but aren't looking for the absolute top pops available. The abundance of supply means you can be ultra picky...in other words, trying to find those coins that just barely miss that top 1% or .1%. Could you look back in 5, 10, 20 years and wish you waited...absolutely, but you could just as easily look back and be glad you started when you did. Nobody can predict the future, but it sure seems like a better time to be doing so now than it has in probably 25 years.



This is something I've thought a lot about recently. Putting together the 50 piece silver type set has always interested me, but it's been behind other interests and I haven't started...but, I keep finding myself seeing coins with offering prices/hammer results that make me think now is the time to start.

CommemDude

I agree with most of the responses so far: great time to buy but with so much inventory you can be picky and buy very attractive coins at very little premium.



The MS68s and monster color coins with soaring pops are not a great value unless you are chasing the registry pack, which is a very thinly traded market right now.



Most of us with hoards of choice coins are not going to try to sell into this market as the dipped ugly pieces are setting new lows and these prices do not reflect what we think our toned coins are worth.



We needed that influx of new collectors that never materialized as promised after the statehood quarter series appeared.

ricko

I have noticed that commemoratives are going at lower prices... I assembled a small set

from states I have lived in....of course, not all states have commemoratives... so in two cases I

acquired state tokens. No further interest....Cheers, RickO

PQueue

I view demand as flat, and not likely to trend higher. The US Coin collector base is not growing. Supply is overwhelming, there's no indication prices will rise in the medium term. If I were assembling some pieces, I'd focus on the 18 or so designs that were issued between 1900 and 1928 (including an Oregon from the Twenties). Forget about 1892/3 and the Thirties.

Zoins

Originally posted by: erwindoc

Up, down or flat? Good time to pick up some nice pieces or wait?

With this series, I would say that a good time is the time that makes you happy, not for financial returns or market timing.


The macro trends don't favor this series having a turn around and many prices may still be too high for the long term direction of non-monsters in this series.

keets

this series suffers the same fate as Modern issues --- too many generic coins are available so collectors do one of two things, either wait for the special coin in their price/grade range or pony up for the high grade, attractively toned pieces that exist and command the healthy premium.

mrcommem

I think that part of the problem with classic commemoratives has to do with the lack of history being taught in schools. If you ask anyone 20 yrs or younger who William Bradford, Henry Hudson, Queen Isabella, Captain James Cook, the Huguenots, William McKinley, or Sir Walter Relegh were, most couldn't give a correct answer. Many of the classic commemoratives a based on historical people or events. If you don't care or were never taught history, you won't care about classic commemorative coins.

JJSingleton

I have taken the long slide down with the commem market over the past 15 years. Still have five more to go to complete my set. Funny thing is that even with the long hard slide I cannot remember ever getting a real good deal on any of my coins. Seems like nice appealing commems have always dictated a strong premium. I'm not talking super toners or pop tops, just nice wholesome original coins.



I do enjoy the set but because of the often discussed slide in value it has taken a back seat to my other sets in the past 5 or so years. With that said I have placed some strong bids in the past several years and each time I find myself being blown away. So I am a bit puzzled about this series and how long and hard it has fallen. I am sure I will get a much clearer picture of the depths if I should sell my commem collection off. Funny how that works.

ElKevvo

If you are looking to collect a nice set, I think it is a good time to start. Prices for mid-MS coins have been flat or trending lower for the past few years IMO. High end coins are a bit different as pointed out in some of the other threads. If you are looking to buy some with a plan to get a nice return on your cash outlay be prepared to wait....maybe for a long long time. The 'series' has been languishing for a while now...



That being said, I think classic commems are very interesting and collectible. The variety of coins along with the history and side stories makes them so different from any regular Mint products.



K