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2015 = 47 MILLION SAE's
carew4me
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American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales By Year
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 46,639,000*
*all-time high as of 12/14/15; 47,000,000 projected.
AG lovers...we are not alone
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 46,639,000*
*all-time high as of 12/14/15; 47,000,000 projected.
AG lovers...we are not alone
Loves me some shiny!
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American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales By Year
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 46,639,000*
*all-time high as of 12/14/15; 47,000,000 projected.
AG lovers...we are not alone
Paragraphitized!
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Who the heck are we going to sell all this stuff to, when the time comes?
I think I'd feel more confident in my silver bullion investments if there were less silver being minted into this new stuff, rather than more..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I think only four of them are mine
I have 1.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Demand has indeed increased. Supply has increased MORE
How could supply increase when the futures market makes it infinite?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
If they sold 100 million for $4 each you guys would still say demand was string. Lmao.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Demand has indeed increased. Supply has increased MORE
How could supply increase when the futures market makes it infinite?
I guess your just acting dumb now?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And still less money spent on them than the year before.
If they sold 100 million for $4 each you guys would still say demand was string. Lmao.
Well demand is also a function of price too so at $4 silver I would expect the mint to be pooping these out at capacity. Why do gross sales necessarily have to increase every year?
What if silver was at $40 on Monday? Demand/production [what there would be of it] from the Mint would probably ebb simply because supply is being met from other sources. A lot of people sitting on $35 silver would likely jump at a chance to unload it.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
But I was told by the experts here that demand for physical has not increased. Might they be wrong?
demand for physical was meaningless as demand for silver overall was way down, obviously...
And still less money spent on them than the year before.
If they sold 100 million for $4 each you guys would still say demand was string. Lmao.
Well demand is also a function of price too so at $4 silver I would expect the mint to be pooping these out at capacity. Why do gross sales necessarily have to increase every year?
What if silver was at $40 on Monday? Demand/production [what there would be of it] from the Mint would probably ebb simply because supply is being met from other sources. A lot of people sitting on $35 silver would likely jump at a chance to unload it.
Yes of course. So do you think if the mint sold 100 million at $4 then demand increased? If you study bull markets you will see increasing volume as prices rise....investors are willing to spend money $$$ even though prices are rising. We have not seen that action in silver in years, hence declining prices. Eventually we will see increasing volume with increasing prices, not with decreasing prices as we see now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
"We had to double production this year, but there was no increase in demand."
You have demonstrated your ineptitude of economics over the years deryb. There is no need for you to subjugate yourself to further ridicule.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And still less money spent on them than the year before.
If they sold 100 million for $4 each you guys would still say demand was string. Lmao.
Well demand is also a function of price too so at $4 silver I would expect the mint to be pooping these out at capacity. Why do gross sales necessarily have to increase every year?
What if silver was at $40 on Monday? Demand/production [what there would be of it] from the Mint would probably ebb simply because supply is being met from other sources. A lot of people sitting on $35 silver would likely jump at a chance to unload it.
Yes of course. So do you think if the mint sold 100 million at $4 then demand increased? If you study bull markets you will see increasing volume as prices rise....investors are willing to spend money $$$ even though prices are rising. We have not seen that action in silver in years, hence declining prices. Eventually we will see increasing volume with increasing prices, not with decreasing prices as we see now.
Does anyone even know what demand for ASEs is? We don't know if the increase of 12 million from 2010 to 2015 was due to increased demand or removal of production constraints. So frankly, unless one is privy to Mint data one may never know what the true demand is. It seems apparent that they aren't overproducing.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That's a lot of silver eagles. Add in all the "other" kinds of silver bullion, look at all the novelty rounds, bars, and stuff on Apmex, MCM, and the other sites, it's enough to bury us in silver
Who the heck are we going to sell all this stuff to, when the time comes?
I think I'd feel more confident in my silver bullion investments if there were less silver being minted into this new stuff, rather than more..
THIS^^^^ I've been saying this for some time. There more there is, the less it's worth. Doesn't anyone see the correlation? (besides Baley & me)
Good point. Since PMs are a global asset, perhaps it would be good to analyze other Govt mint production/sales. What are the numbers from Canada, Great Britain, Australia.
The OP was specifically about ASEs. We don't know know if the increase in production from 2010 [Ag was around $29 at this time 12/20 in 2010] was due to a small but steady increase in demand or that the demand existed all along and the Mint was not able to supply enough. If silver was $4 I think the Mint could easily sell 100 million IF they could produce that many. No idea what their capacity is but IIRC they work 24 hours per day, 5 days a week with no weekends. Perhaps like their suppliers, they are loathe to invest in increasing production. At $4 most buyers would probably be stackers, but if it hit $40 you'd have to think that some of the demand would be met by stackers putting coins back into the market; that is the Mint wouldn't be the sole source of supply like it is now.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Huh?
Isn't demand for physical the same as "demand for silver overall?" Isn't it just all physical silver in the end?
Good argument. Wrong application though.
I think if you look at the actual amount of physical silver in the world over the past 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years, etc.....the supply has been constantly dropping. It's being used up. All you are seeing with "more silver products" are just the same end user items recycled over and over again (sovereign mint ounces, bars, jewelry, etc.). The mines of the world aren't keeping up. And with base metal prices in the toilet the past few years, the multi-metal mines are bringing up even less silver.
Every aspect of silver vs. gold tends (except price) to follow support an 8-1 to 10-1 ratio. Silver is about 9X more plentiful in the earth, it is mined at 9X the quantity of gold, and it trades on the LBMA/Comex at 9X the volume of gold. And unlike gold, it is constantly being used up. Current price ratio of gold to silver is 76-1. The fallacy of looking at the world's gold to silver price ratio from ancient times to the 1960's was that it wasn't being used. That hasn't been the case since the 1960's as sovereign multi-billion ounce stock piles are all pretty much gone. Approx 50 BILL ounces of silver have been mined throughout history. I wouldn't be surprised if 80-90% of that is gone.
The mines produce about 1/10th of an ounce per person (think of a dime). That doesn't seem like adequate supply to sustain a 7 BILL person world for a strategic metal. Even if each ounce of silver ever mined still existed in hand, that would amount to at most $700 BILL....a trifle compared to world debt levels and just 18% over the market cap of Apple. In reality it's a fraction of that $700 BILL.
But I was told by the experts here that demand for physical has not increased. Might they be wrong?
demand for physical was meaningless as demand for silver overall was way down, obviously...
Spot price (for paper futures) tell us demand for paper silver (and gold) is way down. Increasing premiums, even in the face of declining spot price, tell us that demand for physical has increased. Part of this increase in physical demand is the fact that the base (spot) price is lower. It is a marketing fact that lower prices aid in creating greater demand. In turn this greater demand is causing the increase in premiums.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The more desirable the form of silver (rare, beautiful, historic, "neat", "fun", legal tender status, marketing, packaging, etc etc)
the higher the premium above spot tends to be, between informed and willing market participants.
typical ASEs at a couple bucks above spot seems about right, and one is paying mostly for the metal, and a little bit more for the nice shape it's in and its NCLT status.
Put some colorful toning on the same coin, get it into a PCGS slab, preferably with a high grade and maybe someone's signature on it, take great pictures, advertise heavily, and then you'll get some real "premium" prices for the same 31.1 g of pure silver.
What is an ounce of 1792 or 1802 half dimes "worth" in terms of "premium"?
On the other hand, how about an ugly pile of broken sterling jewelry and silverware?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
For a long time I said the 2 were a slave to each other, I stopped saying that 3 months ago. Maybe because that's when I decided to go pretty much only with the premium stuff being added to the stack. It became more of a personal decision of where I'm at with the "collecting" aspect of it all, rather than a market driven decision.
When I pay $200 for a 1 oz collectable bar, I don't come close to factoring in, or remotely caring what Spot is at at that given time. I care about what that particular piece of collectable silver is at at that given time.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
But I was told by the experts here that demand for physical has not increased. Might they be wrong?
demand for physical was meaningless as demand for silver overall was way down, obviously...
Spot price (for paper futures) tell us demand for paper silver (and gold) is way down. Increasing premiums, even in the face of declining spot price, tell us that demand for physical has increased. Part of this increase in physical demand is the fact that the base (spot) price is lower. It is a marketing fact that lower pr ices aid in creating greater demand. In turn this greater demand is causing the increase in premiums.
Premiums are the same today as a year ago. A couple bucks over spot.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But I was told by the experts here that demand for physical has not increased. Might they be wrong?
demand for physical was meaningless as demand for silver overall was way down, obviously...
Spot price (for paper futures) tell us demand for paper silver (and gold) is way down. Increasing premiums, even in the face of declining spot price, tell us that demand for physical has increased. Part of this increase in physical demand is the fact that the base (spot) price is lower. It is a marketing fact that lower pr ices aid in creating greater demand. In turn this greater demand is causing the increase in premiums.
Premiums are the same today as a year ago. A couple bucks over spot.
Your are wrong.
And this does not include increased demand or increased premiums since July 2015.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
But I was told by the experts here that demand for physical has not increased. Might they be wrong?
demand for physical was meaningless as demand for silver overall was way down, obviously...
Spot price (for paper futures) tell us demand for paper silver (and gold) is way down. Increasing premiums, even in the face of declining spot price, tell us that demand for physical has increased. Part of this increase in physical demand is the fact that the base (spot) price is lower. It is a marketing fact that lower pr ices aid in creating greater demand. In turn this greater demand is causing the increase in premiums.
Premiums are the same today as a year ago. A couple bucks over spot.
The Mint charges $2 over spot to the APs. The $2 covers their cost to convert planchets to finished coins, green boxes, tubes, assays, labor, advertising, etc. The APs add another cost to sell them to dealers and other customers. The one AP who publishes prices is currently pre-selling 2016s for $2.95 over spot, $0.95 over their cost for 1 MB and $0.90 over cost for 2+ MB.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
And linking a blog from a consortium that has a vested interested in promoting PMs should never be considered a factual source. You know better.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
See the post after yours derryb. Then check all the threads in this forum regarding ASE'S and premiums. It's always about $3, except when the bullion pushers wants to exploit fear.
And linking a blog from a consortium that has a vested interested in promoting PMs should never be considered a factual source. You know better.
Like any other consortium, maybe they're just using the facts to spin their agenda. After all isn't that what we all attempt to do?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
See the post after yours derryb. Then check all the threads in this forum regarding ASE'S and premiums. It's always about $3, except when the bullion pushers wants to exploit fear.
And linking a blog from a consortium that has a vested interested in promoting PMs should never be considered a factual source. You know better.
Like any other consortium, maybe they're just using the facts to spin their agenda. After all isn't that what we all attempt to do?
Some of us have gotten dizzy from the spinning. How about keeping the facts straight.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Premiums are fleeting they change based on promotion and marketing concepts, not on reality of actual silver(the silver, not coin/bar) available, and once again following this flawed theory has one buying at significantly higher prices and digging themselves even a bigger hole to get out of or suffocate ....
As the price of silver goes down, the percentage premium rises. Currently the $2 per coin premium charged by the Mint is over 14% and the retail premium of $2.95 is over 20%. If I were betting on a silver price rise (I'm not), I would buy shares in a silver ETF for the lower premium, smaller buy-sell spread, better liquidity and less storage and transportation costs and hassles.
Well the mint's cost are the same whether spot is $14 or $34. Similarly, Apple's dividend yield is higher when it's stock price is lower.
Who said the $2.95 was retail? That is the selling price one AP has posted from their dealer price list. Anyone like a JMBullion or a B & M who bought from them will have to add their markup too.
If a dealer sells 10 ounce bars at say $1.49 over, his markup % also increases as spot decreases.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
ASE sales 2nd Half 2015: 25.21M, under allocation all but one week this period.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
The amount of SAE's of all dates that trade each year is staggering. Into the 100's of millions. Only a very small fraction of which end up in the hands of long term (10-20+ years) holders.
So unless it's in a PCGS/NGC holder graded MS or PR70 it's just a means to try and flip to make a few bucks. Those attempting that the last 4 years have been in hell.
Staggering amounts have been made in that time...it's no surprise their value is down 300+% in that time. the more there are, the less they're worth. For those that refuse to accept that, I'm here to tell you, it's really that simple.
The silver market is a gnat on the elephant's arse compared to the bond market, which is the basis of all finance at this time. I don't think a direct correlation can be made, but the time may come when silver is seen as a reasonable physical asset for refugees from the stock & bond markets.
Should there be a significant exodus from stocks & bonds due to a financial crisis, just a small percentage of that money seeking immediate safe haven would be needed to bump demand for gold & silver a lot higher, simply because the gold & silver markets are much smaller.
The entire premise of buying gold & silver is to insure against governmental mismanagement & corruption. It's practically a no-brainer.
I knew it would happen.
Dang new Math.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The amount of SAE's of all dates that trade each year is staggering. Into the 100's of millions. Only a very small fraction of which end up in the hands of long term (10-20+ years) holders.
So unless it's in a PCGS/NGC holder graded MS or PR70 it's just a means to try and flip to make a few bucks. Those attempting that the last 4 years have been in hell.
Staggering amounts have been made in that time...it's no surprise their value is down 300+% in that time. the more there are, the less they're worth. For those that refuse to accept that, I'm here to tell you, it's really that simple.
Down 300+% from what? There are way more generic rounds and bars than there are ASEs, yet they are still worth at least spot.
I assume you are saying that the more graded ASEs there are the less they are worth. Makes sense in that case.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Good point. Since PMs are a global asset, perhaps it would be good to analyze other Govt mint production/sales. What are the numbers from Canada, Great Britain, Australia.
Canadian Silver Maple Leaf production since 2010:
2010 17.8M
2011 23.1M
2012 18.1M
2013 28.2M
2014 29.2M
For 2015 the only report I found was a first quarter amount of 8.9M. This is 700k higher than the 2014 Q1 figure. Thus a projected 2015 figure of 32M
"During the 39 weeks ended September 26, 2015, Bullion Products and Services revenue rose 29.4% to $1,885.8 million from $1,457.3 million in the same period in 2014. Sales of GML coins rose 40.5% to 666.3 thousand ounces from 474.3 thousand ounces in 2014 while sales of SML coins rose 20.6% to 25.2 million ounces from 20.9 million ounces in the previous year."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Although in reverse an approximate 67% loss will take 300% increase to return to break even(approx numbers),
I remember when apmex was paying over 50 for ase's, so selling for prolly around 55... Ahh the good ol days...
What am I missing? 15 x 300% = 45.
30 / 45 = 0.6667 = 67%
Your value declined by 67%
To check, $45 x 0.67 = $30 which equals the decline in value.
For you to lose 300%, someone would have to pay $90 for someone else to take it off their hands.
Unless you are playing with margin, it's pretty difficult to lose more than 100% of what you paid.