Best Unopened for Investment?
Schultz24
Posts: 202 ✭✭
Hello all,
Just wondering what all of your opinions are on what would be the best unopened to buy for possible future investment. I'm thinking up to about $500 per item would be tops, but would entertain all options. All sports are encouraged. Could be boxes, cases, raks, whatever anyone thinks would be a good deal at this time and have future potential. I am just getting back into cards and have a little better job now, so want to start getting back into it. Thanks for your opinions!
Schultz24
Just wondering what all of your opinions are on what would be the best unopened to buy for possible future investment. I'm thinking up to about $500 per item would be tops, but would entertain all options. All sports are encouraged. Could be boxes, cases, raks, whatever anyone thinks would be a good deal at this time and have future potential. I am just getting back into cards and have a little better job now, so want to start getting back into it. Thanks for your opinions!
Schultz24
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id say 88/89 fleet bkball but that has gone up 100% already last year but rookies of pippen, rodman, Stockton, 2 Jordan's
Maybe 86 fb racks? A lot of 10'is about 500 now
Opc baseball maybe early 80s?
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I would focus on boxes that have Brady in the base set and not as a short short print - base Upper Deck and the Pacific boxes for example.
Seriously, Im not too familiar with current cards except heritage.
The best advice i can give is whatever that you decide be sure to buy "BBCE wrapped and authenticated" especially pre '81 and for resale.
The same goes for unopened. Some will bump in value, others will fall in the next few years. A lot of this has to do with the economy (people's "extra" cash burning a hole in their pocket)
I don't have a good answer for you, but can give you one personal anecdote:
Over the past few years I found myself hoarding boxes of 1993 Topps Series 1 (Jeter's rookie card). I ended up with several boxes of each type (wax, cello, rack). Once I decided that I had too many and wanted to collect something different, I offloaded them on ebay. Since I bought over time, my average cost per wax box was around $30-$35 shipped to me. When I got around to selling them, I ended up selling them for about $45-$50 per box shipped (shipping was around $6 per box). So after ebay and paypal fees I was sitting at around $5-$10 profit on each box. Which meant I was getting about 25% profit on each box on the high end and 16% profit on the low end. Not a bad return. But again, we aren't talking about a lot of money. I did essentially turn all my unopened 93 topps boxes into a nice PSA 9 Montana rookie, so that's pretty good in my opinion.
Essentially the advice I can give you is to try to snipe auctions for various unopened and then when you want to sell it put it at a higher Buy-It-Now and be prepared to sit on it for a while until it sells.
It's harder to squeeze the most profit out of unopened boxes...especially cases...because of the shipping costs involved. Unless you are selling locally it will really eat into your profit margin.
I would think that 10 years from now all early to mid 80's
Wax has at least increased with inflation. There is always exceptions and risk but I just
Can't see 82 or 83 Topps boxes for example dropping in value 10 years
From now.
Well I do try to collect what I like with the future value in the back of my mind.
I would think that 10 years from now all early to mid 80's
Wax has at least increased with inflation. There is always exceptions and risk but I just
Can't see 82 or 83 Topps boxes for example dropping in value 10 years
From now.
True, but if you buy a 1982 topps box off of BBCE right now for $260 and sit on it for 10 years...if it raises with inflation (let's just say 2.5% per year)...then in 10 years, just with inflationary increase, it should sell for $326. If in 2025 you sell it for $326, then it would show that it was a good store of value, but as an investment it did poorly.
I think that's why you really need to focus on the collector aspect first....with the investment angle being second. Collect what you like, and if it does increase in value over the next few years then great. If not, then you still have the enjoyment out of the collection from a hobby perspective.
I do think that junk wax from the late 80s has a good chance at increasing in value. Take a box of 1990 topps for example. Right now it will cost you (from BBCE) about $14 a box. If in a few years it goes up to $20 a box....most people won't see that as a huge deal and they will still sell fairly easily. But you now have a 42% profit margin (not taking into account ebat/paypal/shipping). Now granted, you have to store all these boxes for a long time and deal with all the labor around selling / packing / shipping, which will definitely affect the bottom line, but it could be worth it.
Personally, if $500 a box is the top end of what the OP wants to spend, I would grab a few early to mid 80s boxes and just hang onto them and sell later. Like grab a couple 82 topps, 83 topps and maybe an 84 donruss or two. Patience is key here. None of the players are playing anymore and most are out of the HOF race...so I dont see how there will be a huge increase in value unless supply dries up. Which could very well happen in a few years. But history goes to show that there will probably be a huge find later on of tons of unopened (BBCE has done it a few times lately) which could also affect the pricing in the opposite direction.
I know it's "non-advice"...but in the end it's really whatever you want.
Rak packs to me are just a beautiful way of displaying your favorite players without grading packs.
That means high returns on unopened will only come from 80/81 Basketball, 86/87-89/90 Fleer Basketball, 1981, 1984, 1986 Topps Football, 1985 Hockey, Garbage Pail Kids series 1 or 2, and Star Wars 1-5 wax. 1976 football and 1979 hockey are the only unopened from the 1970 that will also grow rapidly. Remember, mega rookie/star and scarcity is the key if you want a massive return on unopened. All others will move up and down at the same rate.
edited to say: Hello Summer--nice to "see" you. hope things are well
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
Strictly as a % of increase? Probably 1986 Topps baseball
Is this sincere?
This is the last answer I would have expected?
Best advice I've seen on this thread.
Doing fine Manny and thanks for the acknowledgment--especially coming from a member of your stature!
The key to any solid investment is to choose an item that is scarce and in high demand. This is why the rise in Jordan and Mantle has been off the charts over the past few years. The scarce piece cannot be over emphasized enough. This eliminates any baseball unopened post 1980. It also eliminates any 1970's baseball since there are no uber elite rookies.
Jordan is popular but not scarce.
Eliminates any baseball? There are always exceptions. How about 1991 DS for example?
Strictly as a % of increase? Probably 1986 Topps baseball
Is this sincere?
This is the last answer I would have expected?
Yes, completely serious.
Boxes like 1975 or 1977 or 1978 tops get a lot of attention because their recent price increases were very large, but the percentage increase wasn't as impressive.
1975 Topps mini is a great example:
In 2014 you could pick up a box for $2,000. It peaked earlier this year at $3,000 and now it has settled at around $2,750. 37.5% increase.
In 2014 you can buy a three box rack case of 1986 Topps baseball for $40-50. I bought 10 for $400 in 2013 I think. Now they're selling for $80-100. 100+% increase.
It's a very inexpensive investment and the pop report will always be low enough to garner demand for rack boxes (since it's near impossible to pull a 10). People stop opening boxes when they no longer need PSA 10 commons. 1986 Topps is a fairly popular set and by far the hardest to complete all 10's.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
I really wanted the rack with Brett on top, wished they would have broken them up into smaller groups.
I have had some success on both the lower end and the higher end of unopened in terms of buying and selling. I've actually flipped 1986 Topps boxes on the low end (bought $20/box, sold $35/box) all the way up to 1977 Topps FB Wax boxes (bought $1700, sold $2500). I will say while the percent profit margin was higher with the 1986 Topps was greater, I much preferred the experience of selling the 77 box. Factoring in the time it takes to do each transaction it just makes much more sense to make one bigger deal than a number of smaller deals, at least in my opinion.
To the original poster, what is your time horizon for holding the product? Are you strictly looking for something to flip quickly or are you looking at it from the perspective of wanting to collect something that you hope increases in value while you are holding it? The answers to these questions would greatly influence the answer to your original question. Good luck and most importantly have fun!
The mother of all unopened basketball boxes is being auctioned by SCP, beginning later this month and ending December 5. A complete 24 pack box of 1961-62 Fleer, including the box, which is graded an 8. This box should command a figure of $75k or higher, I'm guessing, but the fact that it is GAI graded may bring it down somewhat. I would be curious to know what year the box was graded, which would indicate the reliability of the grades.
I agree it is an awesome collection of packs for sale but I will take the "way under" bet on your $75k expectation. And it's not because the market is softening or not I just view that as a stratospheric prediction.
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I'll take the over on $75k. If I could hit BIN for $75k I would hit it (if I had an extra $75k). If a 1986 Fleer BK box is a $30k box then a 1961 Fleer box should be at least 2.5 times that valuable. When was the last time one of these were for sale? You don't even see packs for sale these days. Didn't Steve sell a 1957 Topps BK pack graded by GAI for $15k on his site this past year (if I'm not mistaken). A box of 1961 Fleer isn't worth the equivalent of 5 packs of 1957 Topps. I will be interested to see the results of the sale.
I totally agree, nicely rare packs and you don't see boxes come for sale every few years, but I don't think those that look at this one will think it's a "great box" despite that's what the auction house is promoting it as. Clearly the box is a put together frankenstein's moster with any star showing packs most certainly being taken out. That being agreed on as a put together box and not an original collation box I don't see it pulling off $3k per pack. And while the comparison to 1986 is a valid one you have to take into consideration the 1986 boxes have 50% more packs in them. Time will tell of course but I'm still taking the under today.
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If the box is a "Frankenstein" box then it would affect my bidding but majority of the people bidding in this auction may not care or be privy to that information
But vending.. not certified by BBCE. seems like a big risk to me, but I only buy FASC unopened, so I can't evaluate that risk.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Sdub--If I'm not mistaken, the vending boxes are most likely from Fritsch, so while not labeled FASC by Steve, it is considered the next best thing.
i recall seeing a sealed authenticated 71 vending box in auction 3-4 months ago...i believe he was selling a run of boxes at the time
A couple of things stand out which makes me feel that all 24 of these packs didn't originate from the same box. First, while the majority of the gai flips are first generation all silver flips, three of the flips on the bottom row (two 8.5's and one 8) are later flips that are silver and white. Not that this necessarily means anything although if I owned a full raw box of these and was going to get them graded i would've probably submitted all of them at the same time for uniformity sake. However, what really stands out is that if you look at the top row you will see that the two farthest left packs and the one on the far right have "From a full box" denoted on the flip. Since the other flips are obscured by the holder to the immediate left of it I can't tell if the other 11 packs in this row have that same designation but I would bet they do. None of the packs in the bottom row have any designation on the flips so it appears 14 of the 24 packs (or 58%) probably came from a full box and the remaining 10 were culled from other sources.
I personally think older is always better if you can find a good deal. It's supply and demand.
rtimmer--I agree with your statements. If it is a "put together" box I would drastically reduce my price estimate. How do you know it is not factory original?
Sdub--If I'm not mistaken, the vending boxes are most likely from Fritsch, so while not labeled FASC by Steve, it is considered the next best thing.
Yes with the GAI labeling mixture the "box" comes from at least three different submissions with quite some time spanning the flips so hence my put together assumption. Also the packs are fairly easy to see the back facing card and decent shot on the front so with only 66 cards in the set I would expect at least a nice rookie card or two showing in a box like this and it appears to have none.
Now that Chamberlain showing pack in the auction is a different story. I would not be surprised if the two items came from the same consignor and that Chamberlain showing pack was once in this box. It would be interesting to see the individual flip numbers to see if it's within the sequence of that top row of packs.
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I can assume that all vending wrapped by BBCE means that it came from a case that he opened?? Then why are some vending boxes labeled FASC?
Please correct me if I'm wrong. I don't think Steve has ever wrapped individual vending boxes, but believe he did wrap some from partial/near cases previously. Odds are good that it's FASC even without the notation, but not 100%.
1961-62 Fleer Wax Boxes are also in sequences. Just like the 1986 F BK boxes. Those are in a sequence that you can figure out where exactly the Jordans are. Not many know the sequence for the 1961 BK boxes including myself. But I do know there is a sequence. That would scare me on a box like this with 3 extra packs taken away and then added. I would assume the Top 3 packs were replaced. And I would now suspect the top card was now not possible in this box. Only my opinion and not a fact of course.
Yes my original concern exactly but I fear even more than the top 3 packs are gone. I would fear all the Chamberlains, baylors, robertsons and Wests could have been pulled from looking at the picture.
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btw...in the recent auction selling a vast bbce unopened run, there was def a '71 vending box wrapped and authenticated by bbce and up for auction. i don't recall if it was labeled fasc...they were the new wrappers tho so were somewhat recently wrapped.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
But Im saying even the cards in the middle you can tell where the #8 Wilt is. That was my other concern.
I believe BBCE has made exceptions for vending boxes with the appropriate provenance that they purchased themselves. Were the 79 T hockey vending boxes at the national this year from a sealed case? Because they definitely had the new BBCE wrap. They did have a 79 T hockey vending sealed case which they said was the first any of them have ever seen so seems unlikely they cracked a separate one so they could wrap a few boxes. Are we assuming that these 79 T hockey vending boxes were from Fritsch?
Robb