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Will Mantle cards stay in demand as generations age?
jsanz
Posts: 250 ✭✭
In a few years Mantle would have played his last game 50 years ago. As time goes on most collectors and investors would have never seen him play. Will his cards stay in high demand or will we see a selling boom as collections get passed down or sold off as people age? Will younger generations still seek out his cards and continue the run up in price?
Love those 70's - early 80's packs and boxes...send me a message if you are selling because I am buying
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Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
I've been pondering this recently as well. Personally, I don't see prices holding up long term outside of the 52T and possibly the 51B. He's priced so high above other stars in the 50s/60s sets and it's not like he's a GOAT contender. I see his cards settling at a premium to most stars due to the Yankees lore, but not the astronomical prices we're currently seeing.
Taking the 1960 Topps in PSA 8 as an example, it doesn't make sense to me that Mantles 9th year Topps card sells for 3x the price of a Yaz rookie ($2100 vs. $700). The collector base is very strong now, but I can't see that holding up long term. There has ceased to be any logic with pricing in relation to other cards in the same set.
I never saw him play, but recognize his accomplishments. He's a great 'what could have been' story that still did a lot, but in reality it leaves him as a slightly better Eddie Matthews.
ETA: What scares me the most about buying Mantle cards now is the number of 'investors' flocking to his cards.
My, what a wholly stupid irresponsible assessment you have made of Mickey Mantle. Why don't you do yourself a favor and go sit in the corner 10,000 miles away, and just collect Eddie Matthews, along with the rookie cards that seize your heart.
---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
"He's a great 'what could have been' story that still did a lot, but in reality it leaves him as a slightly better Eddie Matthews."
My, what a wholly stupid irresponsible assessment you have made of Mickey Mantle. Why don't you do yourself a favor and go sit in the corner 10,000 miles away, and just collect Eddie Matthews, along with the rookie cards that seize your heart.
---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
While Kyle exaggerates the point slightly, I don't think he's that far off. Furthermore, he's as entitled to his opinion as much as you are to yours, and comments like yours are a good way to get in trouble 'round these parts.
"He's a great 'what could have been' story that still did a lot, but in reality it leaves him as a slightly better Eddie Matthews."
My, what a wholly stupid irresponsible assessment you have made of Mickey Mantle. Why don't you do yourself a favor and go sit in the corner 10,000 miles away, and just collect Eddie Matthews, along with the rookie cards that seize your heart.
---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
I'm sorry if I offended you, but he is a great 'what could have been' (injuries and alcoholism holding him back) and check their average 162 game regular season stats. Explain to me how different they are. As I stated, I never saw him play so have no emotional attachment/nostalgia whatsoever. Emotion, hype, and 'investors' are driving current pricing which IMHO is unsustainable as those who watched him play are no longer around. Just my two cents, nothing more.
I do collect cards that I enjoy and couldn't care less what others think, no need to sit 10,000 miles away (until I retire).
I've been pondering this recently as well. Personally, I don't see prices holding up long term outside of the 52T and possibly the 51B. He's priced so high above other stars in the 50s/60s sets and it's not like he's a GOAT contender. I see his cards settling at a premium to most stars due to the Yankees lore, but not the astronomical prices we're currently seeing.
Taking the 1960 Topps in PSA 8 as an example, it doesn't make sense to me that Mantles 9th year Topps card sells for 3x the price of a Yaz rookie ($2100 vs. $700). The collector base is very strong now, but I can't see that holding up long term. There has ceased to be any logic with pricing in relation to other cards in the same set.
I never saw him play, but recognize his accomplishments. He's a great 'what could have been' story that still did a lot, but in reality it leaves him as a slightly better Eddie Matthews.
ETA: What scares me the most about buying Mantle cards now is the number of 'investors' flocking to his cards.
Respectfully, I could not disagree more with all of the above.
Mickey Mantle will always be the standard bearer of the baseball card collecting hobby-- his aura and myth and the resultant demand is indeed beyond any logic. But it is there, always has been, and always will be. Indeed books have been written about the perfect storm of factors that coalesced to create the icon-- and therefore demand-- that is Mantle.
So the logic is simply this legend, his place in popular culture, and to legions of baseball fans, some who saw him play, and many, like myself, who did not. The sheer size of his fanbase versus that of other players is what it is-- even if the other player's card is a rookie and the card in question is Mantle's tenth in the same set. That reality says a lot, and in the end it is a reality that has not changed and will not.
Many collectors in their 20's and 30's today entered the hobby at a time when Mantle's cards were looked at as amazing pieces, especially the 52T of course-- which trickles throughout all his cards. The primacy of the 52T Mantle is a factor with enormous impact, in terms of establishing Mantle's primacy, and in turn the primacy of his cards' value relative to others.
The collector base is indeed strong now (so I guess that is one thing with which I concur), yet with people from their 20's to 70's all after a finite number of attractive Mantle cards, I don't see what evidence could lead to a decline in that collector base in even 25 years. The supply and demand numbers are just what they are.
Of course, none of this is to take away from other amazing players and their cards-- Lord knows I love them all.
He is priced so far above the others simply because more people want his cards than they want others.
Crystal ball stuff is just that. The reality of the day is just what it has always been: Mick is #1. His cards have been doing what they have been doing, price-wise, since the 1980s. That is over three decades of history, right up to this very day-- and such a track record weighs far, far more than any prediction. There is simply no hard evidence to ever think otherwise.
Ultimately, the price discussion of any card tends to degenerate into one predictions versus another, and only time will tell. I think the trump card in the final assessment is that collecting is a personal endeavor, and one must collect what they enjoy. So if one doesn't collect Mickey Mantle cards, I don't see why their price would be an issue. For many, many collectors, I would bet the cards they love would be loved whether card was worth a million bucks or a single buck.
Apologies for unsightly block of text, but new system doesn't seem to like indentation.
I would add that "emotion" is a valid and real aspect of collecting, and in turn a valid driver of price. As to the "people never saw them play," logic, one can take the point that is rendered moot by the likes of Ruth cards, Gehrig cards, Cobb cards, Shoeless Joe, Mathewson, Big Train, even to some extent guys like Clemente and Aaron.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Ex. Joe Namath....It doesn't come down to cold hard numbers. Statistics can be twisted to prove most any argument. Compare Joe Namaths numbers to those in the HOF and those who aren't. But his myth will continue as will his popularity. I never saw him except in highlights (one SB highlight..trotting off field) and only saw him live....on the sideline wanting to kiss Suzy Kober.
"He's a great 'what could have been' story that still did a lot, but in reality it leaves him as a slightly better Eddie Matthews."
My, what a wholly stupid irresponsible assessment you have made of Mickey Mantle. Why don't you do yourself a favor and go sit in the corner 10,000 miles away, and just collect Eddie Matthews, along with the rookie cards that seize your heart.
---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
I'm sorry if I offended you, but he is a great 'what could have been' (injuries and alcoholism holding him back) and check their average 162 game regular season stats. Explain to me how different they are. As I stated, I never saw him play so have no emotional attachment/nostalgia whatsoever. Emotion, hype, and 'investors' are driving current pricing which IMHO is unsustainable as those who watched him play are no longer around. Just my two cents, nothing more.
I do collect cards that I enjoy and couldn't care less what others think, no need to sit 10,000 miles away (until I retire).
Agreed. And Mantle is a self afflicted "what if" with the booze. Tough break on the knee injury early on among other injuries but his real problem was an open bottle. He's the most romanticized player by a mile. And not sure that ever fades, that likely grows.....
The aura and myth argument just isn't likely to hold up over couple generations, IMHO, when those who were there for the 80s show circuit are gone. Most of the other players discussed that played before they were personally seen by many of us are top 10 GOATs or are high on the list every time a significant career stat is shown during a current baseball game. My third grade son's class had a recent reading assignment about Roberto Clemente, no mention of Mantle and in the PC world we now live in he's not being put on a pedestal.
I get that there are many here who actively collect Mantle and I'll catch flak for my opinion, but he's actually driven me away from completing any additional 60s BB sets or even attempting any sets from the 50s. I just can't rationalize the price difference between Mantle and everyone else. Vintage cards doubling and tripling in price in 6 months with no news does not seem sustainable. Perhaps I'll regret not getting in now, but there are other cards I would rather spend my money on currently and can live/collect quite happily without any more Mantles in my collection. For those of a differing opinion, enjoy your cards and the memories they bring
whether we're talking myths or condition, the best of the best pretty much always stays in demand.
ps: i actually prefer the corner some days. there's some pretty funny writings on the wall over here, bring your pen...
Mantle cards, golden age Batman comics, these items have enough pop culture gravitas to lure in collectors who were not yet born when they were produced.
There is a one hour Mantle video and some Costas stuff that those naysers should watch. Also, I'd the first in line if Mantle cards do drop off.
Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona.
-George F. Will
I completely agree and think this mind set allows us to have a hobby. Everyone has a target list when assembling their collection. The diversity of interest drives the hobby and allows for great conversation when talking about the cards that we love to collect. I want to hear about everyone's interests and I hope people are interested in what I collect.
Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona.
-George F. Will
Alcohol had little or no factor in Mantle's playing career. His injuries limited him, but he was able to perform quite well despite them.
If you take a better look at his numbers, you will see that Mantle was clearly, not slightly, better than Mathews.
From 1955-1964 his OPS was above .900 every year, above 1.000 eight out of ten times and above 1.100 three times. He also played in 143 or more games eight out of ten times, despite his being hurt.
He won three MVP's and probably should have won three or four more.
No one since Babe Ruth has been so dominant a hitter for such a long period of time. I have not even mentioned his teams success during this time, being on a winning team has a positive effect on prices.
On the subject of card values, you can site MANY instances where players are either over or under valued. Card prices are determined by popularity and Mantle is one of the most popular. Ryan and Clemente come to mind as two who command unusually high card prices and Frank Robinson is one who doesn't. Clemente had only four years above .900 in his career, none above .955 in a full season, Frank's cards SHOULD be worth more!?!?!?
Mantle, Ruth, Williams, Aaron, Mays etc. are all going to remain popular for a long time. Card values in general for these players may drop as time goes on, but I would predict Mantle will not be surpassed.
I completely agree and think this mind set allows us to have a hobby. Everyone has a target list when assembling their collection. The diversity of interest drives the hobby and allows for great conversation when talking about the cards that we love to collect. I want to hear about everyone's interests and I hope people are interested in what I collect.
Great points. I am driven almost 100% by nostalgia, and really have no interest in cards outside of the 1971-1980 timeframe. So bizarrely, I'm more interested in owning a 1972 Mickey Rivers than a 1952 Mickey Mantle.
Culture wise, I would like a Batman or Superman #1.
As for best of the best, Van gogh, da vinci, Faberge eggs and tiffany lamps has a certain value that won't be approached by similar competitors.
I do tell my 10 year old about Mantle, Ruth, Gehrig, etc. So he is very aware of those greats. He has a poster of Gehrig in his room.."the real Ironman". Maybe when he is 40 and has some money, he'll buy some of those cards.
IMO, yes, Mantle cards will hold value as long as each generation shares their memories with the next. And...they aint making more land, nor Mantles, so buy it up.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
I'm with Al - have no idea.
I do know that top cards are out of my range. That ship has sailed.
"He's a great 'what could have been' story that still did a lot, but in reality it leaves him as a slightly better Eddie Matthews."
My, what a wholly stupid irresponsible assessment you have made of Mickey Mantle. Why don't you do yourself a favor and go sit in the corner 10,000 miles away, and just collect Eddie Matthews, along with the rookie cards that seize your heart.
---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
I'm sorry if I offended you, but he is a great 'what could have been' (injuries and alcoholism holding him back) and check their average 162 game regular season stats. Explain to me how different they are. As I stated, I never saw him play so have no emotional attachment/nostalgia whatsoever. Emotion, hype, and 'investors' are driving current pricing which IMHO is unsustainable as those who watched him play are no longer around. Just my two cents, nothing more.
I do collect cards that I enjoy and couldn't care less what others think, no need to sit 10,000 miles away (until I retire).
If you measure stats Mantle and Matthews are very similar in regards to all measurables - HR's, RBI's, Avg... during the regular season. The biggest difference is postseason and World Series which are not even close. Matthews hit one WS home run and won a WS in 1957. Mantle won 8 I believe and holds most postseason records including hitting 18 WS home runs. He also won 3 MVP awards and a triple crown in 1956. Matthews has 0 of the above.
Best comparison would be Marino vs.Montana. Marino held every passing record when he retired while Montana won 4 Super Bowls. I guess you cannot tell people what to buy or collect, but if given the choice between the two I will take the injured drunk as you called him over Matthews.
Batting average 27 points higher, OB% 25 points higher, SLG% 48 points higher and OPS a whopping 92 points higher.
Just looking at totals doesn't tell the whole story.
I will agree that Mathews is under-appreciated, he has a case for being the greatest 3rd baseman ever, although Mr. Schmidt was very good as well.
Back on topic...although Mantle was an absolutely amazing player from what I've seen on tv and read...player performance has little to do with value of card. His speed and home run blasts and good looks coming up with NY is what makes him most everybody's favorite to collect. Didn't Seaver have better numbers than Ryan?
Anyway, I was gawking at my 58 this morning...by no means is that probably anyone's favorite Mantle card, but it's mine!!!
While both were great players, Mantle was significantly better than Mathews.
Batting average 27 points higher, OB% 25 points higher, SLG% 48 points higher and OPS a whopping 92 points higher.
My only post getting into the numbers.... It boils down to an extra 6 hits and 19 walks per 162; they're within 1 HR, 1 2B, and 4 RBI of each other. Using OB% & SLG% or OPS is fine, but trying to use both to accentuate a point is a bit disingenuous. OPS+ shows them much closer at a 29 point differential.
Postseason numbers are always an issue of sample size and opportunity, neither of which are close for these two, so there is no possible comparison.
But, back to the original question, will the demand still be there for future generations? I don't see current multiples for Mantles continuing and am not passing down that he's anything more than a great player, as were many others. I just don't see him as so far ahead of his contemporaries to justify the multiples other than the fact he was a Yankee (which will still maintain a premium over other HOFers). He had the potential to be a lock top 10 GOAT, possibly top 5.
While both were great players, Mantle was significantly better than Mathews.
Batting average 27 points higher, OB% 25 points higher, SLG% 48 points higher and OPS a whopping 92 points higher.
My only post getting into the numbers.... It boils down to an extra 6 hits and 19 walks per 162; they're within 1 HR, 1 2B, and 4 RBI of each other. Using OB% & SLG% or OPS is fine, but trying to use both to accentuate a point is a bit disingenuous. OPS+ shows them much closer at a 29 point differential.
Postseason numbers are always an issue of sample size and opportunity, neither of which are close for these two, so there is no possible comparison.
But, back to the original question, will the demand still be there for future generations? I don't see current multiples for Mantles continuing and am not passing down that he's anything more than a great player, as were many others. I just don't see him as so far ahead of his contemporaries to justify the multiples other than the fact he was a Yankee (which will still maintain a premium over other HOFers). He had the potential to be a lock top 10 GOAT, possibly top 5.
The problem with your post is you are trying to gauge Mantle's value by simple statistical comparisons to other greats when it is painfully obvious to anyone that there is so much more contributing to his higher pricing.
Baseball-reference is a wonderful website but it isn't going to explain why Mantle's cards are worth many multiples of "similar" greats.
With Mantle, there is an emotion and mystic attached that transcends stats. He was an exceptional player that achieved all he did despite massive injury and personal demons. No matter how amazing he was there was always a sense that he could have been 10x the player.
Mantle's cards have been the highest priced in the hobby for 30+ years. Many collectors like myself never saw him play but still take the time to learn about the player/man he was and choose to collect. Could demand soften in say 20 years or so? Sure. History would indicate otherwise.
On the '52 Mantle...I will say over. The card is nearly perfectly centered w/o a tilt to the image! I am surprised Brent is not more verbose describing the card. Where is PWCC high end designation?
"mint only please"
While both were great players, Mantle was significantly better than Mathews.
Batting average 27 points higher, OB% 25 points higher, SLG% 48 points higher and OPS a whopping 92 points higher.
My only post getting into the numbers.... It boils down to an extra 6 hits and 19 walks per 162; they're within 1 HR, 1 2B, and 4 RBI of each other. Using OB% & SLG% or OPS is fine, but trying to use both to accentuate a point is a bit disingenuous. OPS+ shows them much closer at a 29 point differential.
Postseason numbers are always an issue of sample size and opportunity, neither of which are close for these two, so there is no possible comparison.
But, back to the original question, will the demand still be there for future generations? I don't see current multiples for Mantles continuing and am not passing down that he's anything more than a great player, as were many others. I just don't see him as so far ahead of his contemporaries to justify the multiples other than the fact he was a Yankee (which will still maintain a premium over other HOFers). He had the potential to be a lock top 10 GOAT, possibly top 5.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You are absolutely correct when you say that Mickey Mantle is a massive "could have been". He humbly expressed this himself at the end of his life. However, I reflect back upon something teammate Hank Bauer said, in commenting about the same kinds of things you brought out. Hank said, in such words, for someone who was as injured as he was, who supposedly drank and caroused so much during his playing years, he still wound up having an outstanding career anyway.
Mick's career is loaded with those wretching "IFs". If Joe DiMaggio had not waited so long to call Mickey off the ball in the 1951 World Series, perhaps he would have seen that drain thing and avoided it, and the costly injury that plagued him for the rest of his career. If Mickey had not gone golfing in August of 1957 with teammate Tom Sturdivant, against team rules, he would not have heard Sturdivant's merciless high-pitched laughter at Mick struggling with his golf strokes. The very competitive Mantle became so enraged, as he was walking to the next tee with his putter in hand, there was a pesky small tree limb directly in his path. Mickey decided to take his anger out on the tree limb with his putter. Unknown to Mickey, the tree limb was dead, just hanging there in the way. Mickey swung his putter at the limb with all his might and anger, and the putter pierced through the limb like nothing and came around and the heavy end of the putter hit his shin FULL FORCE. Mickey Mantle was in throbbing pain, which lasted the rest of his 1957 season, and brought down his magnificent numbers. The press were told it was a bad case of shin splints, as I remember reading it in EXPLOSION, by Paul Gallagher. Then in the '57 Series, Red Schoendienst fell hard on his shoulder, and Mick said he wasn't really right until 1960. But, life for Mickey Mantle, and for us, is full of breaks, ifs, what might have beens. Life is hard.
I wanted to go into the profound effect that the death of Mickey's father had upon him, but this is getting long. To put it succinctly, Mickey was convinced he too would die of the same disease that took his father at 39, as well as other members of his family. With this mindset, Mick decided he was going to enjoy himself.
Another thought came to me about the legacy of Mickey Mantle and of Ed Matthews. In the year Mickey died, 1995, he was getting $75 apiece for his autograph. I wonder what Ed Matthews was getting, great as he was.
I wish I could afford the Mickey Mantle cards I wanted; as others have stated, it's beyond my foreseeable means. We've seen some incredible spikes in Mantle cards in recent years. I have spoken of this before, but the little boys who came with their Dads to the shows where Mickey was signing autographs, and were then shown by their father some wonderful Mickey Mantle baseball cards, and then the dad may have shared some memories of his own long-lost Mantle cards, and the son watches his Dad's face as he tells him what Mickey Mantle and his cards meant to him---in the hearts of those boys a desire and a dream was planted that day. In the future, when they were grown up and making good money, they would buy some of those Mickey Mantle cards, in the very best condition they could get. Maybe even gift one to their Dad. "Some day I'm gonna own a few of those Mickey Mantle cards!"
We are witnessing those dreams come true today.
Many years hence, I'm sure there won't be the Mantle Mania. However, looking at a similar figure, Babe Ruth, it is now 80 years since he retired. I do not have to even ask youse guys if Babe's cards are holding up in value. The same is true for Ty Cobb. Walter Johnson. Christy Mathewson. Jackie Robinson. Others to a lesser degree.
Guess we'll see. Salud. ---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
LarkinCollector---I am sincerely sorry I reacted so vehemently to what you said and just as sincerely apologize to you, sir. For sure, I accept your own apology. As when we were kids after an altercation, let's be friends.
Apology accepted and I concur on the 'let's be friends'. I enjoy a friendly debate and often take the contrarian position to stir constructive feedback.
Thanks for sharing your and other stories of The Mick (not just in this thread, but many before) and agreed only time will tell.
KC
He was better than other HOFers. He was more popular than other HOFers. But he wasn't 6 or 8 or TEN TIMES as good or as popular. His prices make no sense.
"Bla bla bla, it's a hobby, it doesn't need to make sense." I still stand by my comments.
As for F. Robi, let's just please keep that secret a little longer, hmm?
I'm probably the only contrarian that believes card prices will continue to go up and we wont see a decline. The way I see it...I would love to own a 1959 PSA 8.5 or better Mantle that has tremendous eye appeal...I can save and eventually buy this card over time. However, that's a tough way to think: How many have you seen for sale? How many come to market? How many will? Not many and it'll get tougher and tougher and the price will go with the scarcity - off the charts...now on the other hand, how many people are like me with similar interests? Let's say 100 people want and have the means (and stupidity - haha) to go after an 8.5 and only 1 is for sale. It's total supply and demand.
People say it's just cardboard. Well glass is just glass and paint on canvas is just paint on canvas, you get my point...there are so many sports fans and some of those sports fans are sport card collectors. In the end it's what each individual wants to collect and enjoy
I hope my son will appreciate my collection even a tenth of how I feel...or simply cash in...in the end it's all good and Mantle baseball cards will continue to rise in value...love the comparisons and stories that you all shared.
A better question would be why Clemente or Koufax are as expensive as they are, not that I have any problem with it as I contribute toward that in my own small way. Or why Eddie Mathews or Frank Robinson (especially Frank) are so cheap.
Clemente is easy to justify:
1. First great Latin player - growing market as % of people in US and baseball continues to grow
2. Award named after him - guaranteed to be in news at minimum annually during the WS when the most eyeballs are on the sport
3. Tragic death on a humanitarian mission - allows him to be idolized in standard public school materials
4. Three medals awarded by US presidents - furthering his cross appeal, outside of just his baseball accomplishments
The others listed befuddle me as well.
belz,
IMO, cards have gone up substantially due to the following factors:
1) A lot of easy money being available over the past few years from the Fed, resulting in all sorts of stock market/housing gains providing A TON of wealth/discretionary income.
2) A lot of "I collected in the 1970s/1980s/1990s as a child/teen/young adult" and I've picked up a passion for it again. This group is in their prime earning years right now.
3) Shilling. It may be talked about enough, but I genuinely believe cards would be as little as half what they if shilling were impossible to pull off.
As for #1 above, that will end eventually and it could get ugly when it does and will almost definitely impact prices in the shorter/mid term in a material way.
As for #2, the demographics are fine for the next couple of decades, but after that, there are very few child/teen/young adult's who collected in this millennium. I do think there will always be collectors, but not anywhere near enough. You can buy MINT PSA 9s 1930s cards of worldwide iconic figures like Clark Gable, Cary Grant, Shirley Temple, Ginger Rogers, Fred Astaire, Greta Garbo, etc. etc. for literally as low as $5-$20. If such famous well known iconic figures (across the entire landscape and not just sports), has such difficulty garnering interest, I find it hard to imagine who is going to pay thousands of dollars for a mint Joe Cronin or Rabbit Marranville a few decades from now.
As for #3, in a downward market, shilling will collapse unto itself causing further declines due to a lack of "support" for prices.
+ on #3. Shillings chasing commission fees on cards they own/bought will be fun entertainment during the correction
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Great discussions and points. This is such a great forum as I continue to learn and appreciate from all of you.
I'm probably the only contrarian that believes card prices will continue to go up and we wont see a decline. The way I see it...I would love to own a 1959 PSA 8.5 or better Mantle that has tremendous eye appeal...I can save and eventually buy this card over time. However, that's a tough way to think: How many have you seen for sale? How many come to market? How many will? Not many and it'll get tougher and tougher and the price will go with the scarcity - off the charts...now on the other hand, how many people are like me with similar interests? Let's say 100 people want and have the means (and stupidity - haha) to go after an 8.5 and only 1 is for sale. It's total supply and demand.
People say it's just cardboard. Well glass is just glass and paint on canvas is just paint on canvas, you get my point...there are so many sports fans and some of those sports fans are sport card collectors. In the end it's what each individual wants to collect and enjoy
I hope my son will appreciate my collection even a tenth of how I feel...or simply cash in...in the end it's all good and Mantle baseball cards will continue to rise in value...love the comparisons and stories that you all shared.
Cards are a lot like stocks in some ways. If they go down you can buy more, and if they appreciate what you own it is worth more. I also think certain cards will be worth more over time, and vintage is the way to go. Modern stuff is artificially inflated due to autographs, refactors, limited numbers... - if won't last long term.
When card shops went away it seemed like the card industry was going to fall, but Ebay, boards like this one, VCP... have actually made the vintage market better. Better info, better access to pricing info and sales history, more educated buyers and sellers... I can now buy a card knowing what it sells for in what condition and what the recent sales history is with much more clarity. I can also sell to people and don't have to play games about what it is worth and justify pricing.
As far as good stuff it will always command a premium and there will be dips and increases in pricing due to demand, currency, market forces...(sheesh - I sound like John Maynard Keynes writing that last part
For some cards and issues it will to up and down, but with Mantles he pretty much IS the hobby when it comes to high end cards so that will probably keep climbing.
Of course I'm kidding.
Baseball, I can understand your thoughtful points, but unless something catastrophic happens across the board and sports card collectors along with everyone else start selling their prized possesions, then nothing is dropping off...I can only hope we can get some stability so I can finish my collection and have a chance to move onto my next player project.
I also think without PSA and maybe SGC/Beckett, we wouldn't have climbed so high so fast. Set registry was brilliant to blow up the interest level in collecting..therefore prices flourish as well. What will PSA look like 10-15 years from now? Will there be another competitor? I'm sure some will try and for sure potential merger discussions probably already exist...ok, I'll put down the coffee.
LarkinCollector ,
I find it odd that you would argue against Mantle's premium based pretty much on statistical measurements, all the while lauding Clemente for a whole bunch of non-statistical reasons why his cards deserve a premium. Mantle has a lot more non-statistical reasons for being popular than probably anyone in the history of sports, except maybe Ali or Jordan.
Thirty years from now, the reasons I gave for Clemente will still apply while those who watched and idolized Mantle in their youth will be mostly gone and even those who attended shows with their father in the 80s will be in a severe decline. The 52T will remain in the top 2-3 iconic cards, but I don't see Mantle being in the news as regular as Clemente. I have never stated that Mantle cards won't always carry a premium, I just don't think the current multiple is sustainable whereas with Clemente some of those intangibles are more likely than not to continue. Current youth being taught about Clemente in school will also continue his premium (still the only player on vintage cardboard my son has asked me about and the cards he's most impressed with in my collection), I don't see the same for Mantle in the long term.
My guess, if you polled every housewife in the country, a SUBSTANTIALLY larger population will know who Mickey Mantle is and have no clue who Clemente is. My guess is that it will be that way long after we are pushing up daisies.
They couldn't be bothered with such nonsense anyways, what with trying to hang those deGrom and Syndegaard posters all over the house.
Not all cards are rising, but when people are paying $400k for Mantle rookies in an 8, $42k for 53 Mantles in an 8, $6k+ for 56 Mantles in an 8 that is pretty good evidence that his cards are trending way up. Clemente rookies and Aaron rookies are doing the same. Ted Williams cards are pretty flat, Mays is average...
As far as Clemente he was a great fielder and possibly the best OF defensively of all time. Add in his Latin heritage, early death, great humanitarian, and great overall person and what is not to like. His cards are popular, and with Latin kids and adults he will be their Babe Ruth. Just because he is not as well known or popular as Mantle is not a bad thing - it is what it is.
We can find a 1000 reasons why player so and so has numbers or metrics better than Mantle, but if it was only about numbers people would only collect Ruth, Bonds, Cobb, Cy Young, Ryan, Rose, Henderson, and Aaron. As much as you want to try you cannot tell people who to like and who to collect. I guess that is what makes collecting fun for a lot of people - everyone can have their own boyhood idol.
My guess, if you polled every housewife in the country, a SUBSTANTIALLY larger population will know who Mickey Mantle is and have no clue who Clemente is. My guess is that it will be that way long after we are pushing up daisies.
I would bet my wife can name exactly one athlete, period, and it's a kinda/sorta/we'll see how the back surgery goes this time active player who's not in any of the major sports, just a Majors one
If pressed to name a second athlete she would be stumped. Besides how many housewives buy vintage cardboard?
CenteredMantles - My guess is by the time he's in third grade, Clemente will be the topic of one of the weekly reading assignments, especially as the curriculum continues to be more standardized across the country. I'm sure I can walk into my sons elementary school and 60+% of the kids know who Roberto Clemente is, and few, if any, have heard of Mantle.