1909 VDB PR66RB NGC at Heritage
EagleEye
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The 1909 VDB PR66RB sold for a paltry $23K. Unseen in the image was a very large scratch in the right obverse field. I graded it 64RB at best. Also, it was sold unreserved. Has NGC destroyed the market for this coin?
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<< <i>The 1909 VDB PR66RB sold for a paltry $26K. Unseen in the image was a very large scratch in the right obverse field. I graded it 64RB at best. Also, it was sold unreserved. Has NGC destroyed the market for this coin? >>
I'm guessing the scratch destroyed the market for this particular coin
-Paul
<< <i>It could have to do with the quality of the coin, but it could also have to do with the 50+ that could be dumped onto the market >>
+1 but more on the 50+ marketing blunder taking it's toll
AB
<< <i>The 1909 VDB PR66RB sold for a paltry $26K. Unseen in the image was a very large scratch in the right obverse field. I graded it 64RB at best. Also, it was sold unreserved. Has NGC destroyed the market for this coin? >>
1909 VDB NGC PR66RB
<< <i>
<< <i>The 1909 VDB PR66RB sold for a paltry $26K. Unseen in the image was a very large scratch in the right obverse field. I graded it 64RB at best. Also, it was sold unreserved. Has NGC destroyed the market for this coin? >>
I'm guessing the scratch destroyed the market for this particular coin
Those scratches are on the coin & not the holder?
If so, shouldn't the coin be body bagged?
HH
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<< <i>The 1909 VDB PR66RB sold for a paltry $26K. Unseen in the image was a very large scratch in the right obverse field. I graded it 64RB at best. Also, it was sold unreserved. Has NGC destroyed the market for this coin? >>
The market ultimately destroyed the price of this coin. Prices and grades are only transitory. And eventually the market figures it out. There was lots of clouding up in the coin prices from 2003-2008 as anything with a "label" could be sold for good money. If this coin were around in that era it would have sold within 10-20% of a solid for the grade PR66. When the speculators, investors, and whales left the 2008 market in droves the price vs. quality distortion issues became a lot more obvious to a lot more people. CAC only accelerated the process. And their showing up as the coin market peaked in 2008 was a double whammy.
It's not just this coin though. The market is still sorting out the remaining back log of coins in holders that are either low end or not deserving of the assigned grade. In the case of this PR66 RB Lincoln, it apparently never truly existed in the quality the label suggests. But that doesn't negate the fact that someone was probably enriched by the grade assignment and now someone has to pay that back. It's not a very efficient method of "price discovery." I suspect if this coin were cracked out and ended up in a PR64 or PR65 holder, it would realize a lot less money. The current holder could still clouding the coin's true value. The coin market ultimately stands on what any coin is worth between knowledgeable buyers and sellers as if it were raw.
June 2008 auction appearance $63K....we have whales Cap'n......Is that the all time record price for a 66RB? No complaints from that consignor. And considering the PR67RB was over $200K, it makes this seem like a "bargain."
Other 66's
And I disagree with the statement, "Crap coins in all holders tend to ruin the price for great coins in all holders". If anything, the drop in price is an indication there are fewer point chaser buyers than true collectors who settle for stellar coins only. So there was less competition for this coin thus a lower price. Astute collectors will either agree or disagree with their own assessments of a coin.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>Crap coins in all holders tend to ruin the price for great coins in all holders >>
and thats a shame as well.
many know this fact
most who did buy them at early elevated prices no longer own them
do a study of that fact to see
i for one see the prices dropping to where the collector base accepts this coin again
like ambro stated
once the price returns to acceptable and the short series becomes completeable
then the market for this coin will return but nowhere near earlier level play
just how many lincoln collectors play at this level to begin with?
is that a population that's increasing or on the decline?
add the fact yes it's a low pop mintage but if that's a focus the 1964 sms trumps it many times over
what's the pop of a 1964 sms and is it required for a complete set?
why does it sit in a shadow in comparison?
ngc had nothing to do with the market crash of this example or coin
the market woke up is my call
"Crap coins in all holders tend to ruin the price for great coins in all holders"
This seems to fly in the face of Laura's recent tale of two Lib nickels - referring here to the killer 12-S MS66 she bought for 3-4x the price of the low end pieces that have been routinely trading for $8k- $12k give or take (and sold promptly after it easily upgraded to 66+). Or, might the 12-S nickel story be only the exception to the rule stated above?
Wondercoin
<< <i>"Crap coins in all holders tend to ruin the price for great coins in all holders"
This seems to fly in the face of Laura's recent tale of two Lib nickels - referring here to the killer 12-S MS66 she bought for 3-4x the price of the low end pieces that have been routinely trading for $8k- $12k give or take (and sold promptly after it easily upgraded to 66+). Or, might the 12-S nickel story be only the exception to the rule stated above?
Wondercoin >>
Dealers can be their own self-fulfilling prophecies. Customers rely on dealers to tell them what something is worth. 66+ has become the new 67 when there are no 67's in existence. When the first 67 gets made, those other 66+ coins could take a hit. It's rare air up at this level of the game. And it would not exist as such without dealers actively playing and promoting it. There are LOTS of examples like this 12-s. Fwiw, other MS67's in this series are priced from 2X to 7X the price of a MS66+. So this one at 3X to 4X is certainly inside that band of a pop 1. The 1885 MS67 jumps 5X from a MS66+. The jump form 66 to 66+ for nearly all the Lib nickels is approx 2X. But for dates like the 1907 and 1912 it's essentially 4X. So 3X-4X for the 12-s fits....until more are made.
Before this 12-s went + it was at most 1 of 26 in PCGS MS66. Now it's a pop 1 and got a huge price boost. That possibly lowered the price of the other "25" MS66's. More 66+ coins will probably be made....lowering the prices of the other 66's. At some point it will be necessary to make the leap to the first MS67. That will lower the price of the 66+ and 66 coins. The price of the MS67 will be quite a bit higher. The top few coins continuing to make that leap get rewarded. First is best. The majority get left behind. The prices of the also-ran MS66's will probably only continue downward. So I guess I agree that the 66+ coins and future MS67's are the one's with more potential....as long as the grading game meanders forward. The vast majority of the market gets left behind. One way to look at it is that the total dollars chasing those 26 coins is fairly fixed....even declining. Whatever extra money this MS66+ pulled out of the market, was probably removed from those other MS66's. The 66+ is up 200-300% while the others are possibly down 4-6% on "average." The money just gets moved around. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. If net money is not coming into the market....this is the only way to do it.
<< <i>"Crap coins in all holders tend to ruin the price for great coins in all holders"
This seems to fly in the face of Laura's recent tale of two Lib nickels - referring here to the killer 12-S MS66 she bought for 3-4x the price of the low end pieces that have been routinely trading for $8k- $12k give or take (and sold promptly after it easily upgraded to 66+). Or, might the 12-S nickel story be only the exception to the rule stated above?
Wondercoin >>
What would the price have been of that coin if it was a pop one or two without all those bad coins littering up the pop? Easily $50k IMO
<< <i>Keep in mind the vdb proof is the only Lincoln cent regular issue that is in the strata of Absolute Rarity. All others trade based on toning and condition rarity. >>
What's up with low survival rate (~20%) for VDB proofs? I see some speculation on CoinFacts but nobody has a definite answer?
I don't buy the premise anyway, that crap coins sink the whole market for nice coins. We've seen so many examples where educated buyers pay many multiples of guide for high end coins. I think this thread is one interesting example but don't see an epidemic here.
<< <i>"Crap coins in all holders tend to ruin the price for great coins in all holders"
This seems to fly in the face of Laura's recent tale of two Lib nickels - referring here to the killer 12-S MS66 she bought for 3-4x the price of the low end pieces that have been routinely trading for $8k- $12k give or take (and sold promptly after it easily upgraded to 66+). Or, might the 12-S nickel story be only the exception to the rule stated above?
Wondercoin >>
... "Or, might the 12-S nickel STORY be the ONLY exception to the RULE stated above" ... hmmmmm
Are you a lawyer, have a chip, or both?
Agree with TDN.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
This is the one 20th century type that I don't have which is generally available Proof. I've pretty much given up on buying one because of the hoarding and market manipulations. Having to pay stupid money for a mediocre coin is just not worth it.
<< <i>What's up with low survival rate (~20%) for VDB proofs? I see some speculation on CoinFacts but nobody has a definite answer? >>
20% is way off
approx 50% are holdered between 3 or 4 tpg companies
there's where many get a little lost as they presume that to be survival "ESTIMATE" (guesstimate more so fits the bill here)
some collectors don't have much knowledge about 3rd party grading companies
some refuse their premise
some of these are in very old collections as heirlooms that will be kept intact as assembled or in original government issue packaging
the 09 vdb kept close to the 16' mpl until it was marketed,pumped and primed
one look at 1916 numbers in comparison and one would think the 16' will shoot to the moon too
the market or base just doesn't support that though
look at 1916 prices...do they correlate in anyway
there's a 1916 mpl in pcgs pr64rb that's sat on ebay now for over 2 weeks at $3.2k...it's still there
mostly the 1-2 % of the population support the very high end of coins and of those just how many are lincoln collectors?
once they've bought what they need or desire it then becomes a hard to sell to most of the 98%
<<< will always be in the market is waking up camp
many would like one and will wait it out but not stress over not having one
heck the owner of the 50+ even allowed out a big ad in a major monthly magazine letting the world know...he's got 50+ and his hoard is being dumped
all the big players have theirs
is this hoard to be dumped to the 98% at 1-2% pricing
i'd think not
whomever buys that must buy them all and then trickle them while the cat's out of the bag already
sincere good luck there
finding that many buyers of coins of this price level
there's a market play in and of itself
selling in the crash from the market play that ran it up
<< <i>Nic: Not sure of the point you are trying to make, but I agree with RR that there are likely many stories like the premium 12-S and that it is not isolated. Wondercoin. >>
So you disagree with my $50k assessment or not?
Just because it went for multiples doesn't mean the price wasn't affected
And, the conclusion could then be that even though great coins bring great prices (Laura's message) those prices can still be muted or negatively affected by the drag of the bad coins (your point). It fits.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Call or email Heritage. It is a long shot, but maybe it would remove the record. >>
Have they ever done this before? It seems strange to remove record of an actual sale like this.
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a 16 SLQ IN 64 holder sold for huge money to an internet bidder. Floor bidders backed off. I had somebody look at this coin in hand, and they told me point blank huge scratch in field, should have been bagged or net graded to like a 61 at best. No mention in auction description or you could not see it period in blown up auction photos
<< <i>different coin,
a 16 SLQ IN 64 holder sold for huge money to an internet bidder. Floor bidders backed off. I had somebody look at this coin in hand, and they told me point blank huge scratch in field, should have been bagged or net graded to like a 61 at best. No mention in auction description or you could not see it period in blown up auction photos >>
The stuff that goes on behind our backs but this doesn't surprise me.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>Keep in mind the vdb proof is the only Lincoln cent regular issue that is in the strata of Absolute Rarity. >>
Ambro51,
Yes, people should understand and recognize that the 1909VDB MPL IS an Absolute Rarity for a regular issue. You just cannot go to any website, or dealer and purchase one AT ANY PRICE. Once the hoard issue gets resolved the hobby will have about 150 of these coins available. Right now there are about 100 of these coins available. Problem is just about all of the 100 are in the hands of collectors who are very happy to own this coin in their collection. The other problem is that the 53 coins owned by the hoarder have a value that is perceived by the hoarder to be greater than is perceived by potential buyers of the hoard. Hopefully, this will get resolved soon. It's been almost a year already.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry