Thoughts on the Classic Silver Commemorative Series and Recent Values

msch1man · August 29, 2015 8:17AM

At some point, I've always thought I'd like to put together the 50 piece type set for the silver commemoratives from 1892 to 1954. I haven't studied the series that much and simply have too many other things on the current want list to start it, but I've noticed several threads and seen several auction results or coins on dealer's sites that all talk about the plunge in prices in this series. Just had me wondering what it is that might be behind this recent dip (as it seems more than a regular overall general drop). The series seems to have a lot going for it....the coins are big (most people prefer coins the size of half dollars over half dimes), it's completable and a good size (50 is a good number and there really don't seem to be any absolute "stoppers"), it's got lots of varied designs, and can be done in mint state for a relatively modest budget...as another plus, a lot of the coins are available with very attractive toning. Again, I haven't done my "homework" on the series and am not currently planning on starting it, but it sure does seem like it'd be a good time to be a buyer. What are your thoughts on the series in general and on the recent prices pieces have been bringing?

ms71 · August 29, 2015 9:45AM

They have been on a steady decline for over 25 years, I believe the peak was some point in 1989. Most are down ~ 85%-90% since then, the few with the highest values have declined somewhat less.

TopographicOceans · August 29, 2015 12:07PM

There is no interest in them and I think they still have some more room to fall in value.

Zoins · August 29, 2015 12:12PM

The supply is too high relative to demand. Basically too many survivors given the the number of collectors there are for these.

That means you can build a nice set but don't expect prices to go up, except for possibly condition rarities.

valente151 · August 29, 2015 12:41PM

<< The supply is too high relative to demand. Basically too many survivors given the the number of collectors there are for these. >>

This is the general truth, you can build a complete set (several times!) at any major show if you are looking for dipped or neutrally toned coins.

Despite this, there is still high demand for original and eye appealing toned coins. For example, here are two Maines from my personal collection that I believe would sell fast and easily at high prices if offered, though I guess ownership adds a little value.

BillJones · August 29, 2015 1:09PM

These coins have been heavily promoted on at least two occasions since 1980. The promoters talked about low montages relative to the regular issue coins, but they didn't say anything about far higher survival rates. The prices were pushed up by promotion only to fall again with huge losses for their owners.

The investment game is currently over for these coins. The only buyers are an ever decreasing numbers of collectors who want "color coins." The "wonder toned" market is strong for some, but the prices are often very high and speculative. If you want to check into the foolish historical promotions than once surrounded these pieces, check out the "investment projection" section in the back of the Breen - Swieteck (sp) book on these coins from years ago. Even the bad investment coins were supposed to yield a great return.

Zoins · August 29, 2015 1:27PM

Which company produced the slabs with prices in the inserts? Those are always fun to see from the the 80s.

roadrunner · August 29, 2015 1:42PM

When all coins first started getting slabbed in 1986-1987 all slabbed coins were pretty scarce, even "common" commems in gem. Take a look at the May 1989 CDN or Blue Sheet to see how far they've fallen, even with a 1 pt change due to gradeflation. MS65 Columbians were over $4,000 at that time. 10% of that today give or take. The promotions of 1989-1990 took commems to astounding heights because pops were very small vs. surviving speciments. Total classic commem PCGS MS65 pop by June 1st, 1989 was approx 30,000 pieces. Today it's 123,000. The pops were too big to sustain the market in 1989...and now 4X larger (2X if one assumes 1 resubmission per coin).

MS silver commem PCGS pops June 1989 vs August 2015. Note the biggest increases in the higher grades with MS66 at 10X, MS67 and MS68 at 20X. The

MS63 20K/52K
MS64 41K/127K
MS65 30K/123K
MS66 6K/61K
MS67 0.7K/14K
MS68 0.037K/0.750K

This is one of the worst looking coin charts of all time. A 5 wave rally from 1970-1990 was followed by a 5 wave decline from 1990-1998. After a small bounce from 1998-2006 it's now back to retesting the 1998 lows. Interesting that several important pieces of the choice/gem rare coin market peaked back in 2006 (commems, gold type coins, etc.). It's been 9 years down.

PCGS commem price index

Eagleguy · August 29, 2015 2:57PM

I've been seeing more and more of them for sale, which is lousy for me because I'm selling all of mine off now too, so the market appears somewhat flooded at the moment. As a result, I expect to probably lose quite a bit on the sale. On the other hand, it may be a good time to start collecting them since prices are down even since I started collecting them several years ago.

JH

BryceM · August 29, 2015 3:31PM

I've considered doing the series, but half of the designs & stories are cool and the other half are boring and contrived. I have a few, and I'll likely get a few more, but I doubt I'll ever complete the whole series. Some of the coins are among the best designs we've ever produced. Anyone who loves beautiful coins should get an Oregon, a Pilgrim, a Columbian, a Texan, and a PanPac.

Something unusual would have to happen for them to really ever pick up against general popularity.

BillJones · August 29, 2015 11:18PM

<< I've considered doing the series, but half of the designs & stories are cool and the other half are boring and contrived. I have a few, and I'll likely get a few more, but I doubt I'll ever complete the whole series. Some of the coins are among the best designs we've ever produced. Anyone who loves beautiful coins should get an Oregon, a Pilgrim, a Columbian, a Texan, and a PanPac.

Something unusual would have to happen for them to really ever pick up against general popularity. >>

Another source of interest are all the scandals and backdoor deals that went on when these coins were first distributed. We see the same thing today with flippers who buy out the entire mintage of coins over the Internet in 15 minutes. The main difference one group controlled ALL of the coins and played games with them to get the highest prices.

See what happened with the Cincinnati, Hudson and extended later date issues of the Boone, Oregon and other commemorative issues that were continued for far too many years.

My attitude is that the 50 piece type set is pretty cool. I'm not interested in the 144 piece complete set at all.

Riverfront · August 29, 2015 11:22PM

Wow. Nice looking commemorative set Eagleguy!

robertpr · August 30, 2015 10:02AM

It seems when thinking of the modern commems, that history does indeed repeat itself. You CAN see the future, by looking at the past!

mrcommem · August 30, 2015 2:27PM

When I was a youngster in the mid-60's I used to collect Lincoln Cents, Jefferson and Buffalo Nickels, and some Roosevelt dimes. I was a kid with little money and couldn't use it for coins so anything I found was taken from circulation. I use to look at the prices in the Redbook and noticed the neat, odd-looking silver, as well as expensive coins at the back of the book. I never dreamed of ever owning any of those strange coins back then. When all the silver coins were withdrawn from circulation my collecting days drew to a close. I had better things to do like high school and later pharmacy school. Once out of college I had time and money to try to build a set of those neat coins. Starting in 1995 I acquired one by one each of the 50 classic silver commemoratives. I was thrilled every time I added a new coin and strived to learn everything about it. Back in 1996 the coins seemed expensive to me but in reality they were a bargain off their 1989 highs. By 1997 I had finished the 50-piece type set just in time to submit it to a new idea from PCGS, the PCGS Set Registry. Back in its infancy in 1997, PCGS went out of their way to get people to join. When I submitted my set, they gave me free grading, free crossover for the 15 or so NGC coins in my set, a pedigree "The Overland Trail Collection", and publication in their new book. It was a fantastic deal for me and I gladly accepted. In that first edition in 1997 there were few participants in the Silver Commemoratives. Looking at the 1999 issued the "Overland Trail Collection" was still ranked a lofty #2 current finest. The all-time finest back the was the Larry Shepherd Collection grade of MS 66.88 compared to my modest MS 64.24. In the 2001 publication I was still ranked #2 but my grade had moved up to MS 64.56. After that year the registry when viral due to computerization. Now, the 'Overland Trail Collection" is ranked in the mid to upper 20's but due to improvements and updates is rated 65.15 or so. I maybe should of sold the collection back in 2005 or 2006 when the prices topped but I didn't build the collection to sell for investment but as the fulfillment of a childhood dream.

The coins have now dropped to about the price of what I paid for them. It is a good time for starting a collection that has it all, history, cool designs, famous artists, and much information about each coin. Coins aren't made like this anymore.

TigersFan2 · August 30, 2015 2:52PM

Back in the late 1999s when Ebay was in its infancy, I went crazy buying a little of everything, mostly low grade coins as whole fillers. But in my buying a little of everything, I purchased about a dozen of the commemoratives. At the time, I thought it would be cool to collect these. The ones I bought aren't superior quality as most have a little wear. I sent 5 to PCGS early this year and they came back XF40, AU50, AU50, MS62 and Cleaned with Unc details. The others I have are either obvious cleaned coins and/or the common Booker T Washington and Carver/Washington.

In the years since, I've not purchased any more and my interest for them has waned somewhat. I'm not a high $ collector and am thinking of selling them all to clear up some cash for a key-date Morgan.

I do still think the commemoratives are interesting and have some of the most beautiful designs in U.S. coin history. But I fail to see why anyone is attracted to buying the modern commemorative which the Mint seems to flood the market. With the modern commemoratives, I expect in a few decades they'll be similar to the baseball card phenomena of the 1980s when baseball cards were hot, but everyone saved them in pristine condition such that now there's little rarity. The modern commemoratives are mass produced and virtually all will be kept pristine. Whereas the classic commemoratives got handled and worn and are more interesting because they exist in circulated and uncirculated condition. Not every one looks the same.

Justacommeman · August 30, 2015 3:22PM

If you go the great color/high grade route be prepared to be shocked by the prices. This an area I collect in. I haven't bought a commen in almost two years as I just can't find what I'm after.

mark

Justacommeman · August 30, 2015 3:32PM

And as an alternative to the 50 piece set ( so many designs that are boring) you could do just the early dates. These are always in demand and are generally tougher coins. Maybe collect up to 1926 and the you can include the Oregon. From there you can sprinkle in a few latter coins of your choice

mark

shorecoll · August 31, 2015 12:16AM

I have the 50 piece set and am still planning to do a few upgrades. You can choose the high dollar "color" coins or not (I have a few) but be very focused on quality. There are a lot of off-quality commems in all kinds of holders, I'm guessing from one or more of the old promotions. I generally find a lot of non-PCGS coins that are overgraded one full point compared to our hosts...that's OK if they are priced that way, but generally they aren't. PCGS is definitely not perfect, but the others are worse. IMHO.

TwoSides2aCoin · August 31, 2015 12:33AM

I like a few of these. The whole series to complete would be a fun challenge. Finding evenly matched toners would be almost impossible unless one person kept them all in the same album or stored the same way. That would be a sight for sore eyes.

Broadstruck · August 31, 2015 12:52AM

There are some great color bargains in MS63-64 as typical collector mentality in this series is that they must have a Gem status MS65 on the slab label. Last year I found a gorgeous toned Lexington in MS63 which was quite affordable and far more attractive the some 64-66 examples I've handled. If your not registry minded needing points a original skinned Lexington in MS63 is a far better purchase to represent the type then the dipped examples which are now making it into MS67 holders. So if you focus on the coin itself and not the grade label there are some bang for the buck opportunities in this series. This series should be collected for it's beauty and history and if your buying the right examples each should still retain at least the purchase price even if values drop a bit further.

CommemDude · August 31, 2015 1:50AM

These coins are a great bargain at current prices, and you can also afford to be picky and only buy coins with "original" surfaces or nice toning if that is your thing.
The MS67-68+' s that are now being made every day are NOT a good buy as the huge premiums attached to these can disappear as more and more are re-graded to current standards.
The monster color coins have a life of their own but are very thinly traded, so you really have to be brave to venture into those right now.

Here's a coin thats original, but carries no large premium for toning:

Eagleguy · August 31, 2015 2:32AM

<< There are some great color bargains in MS63-64 as typical collector mentality in this series is that they must have a Gem status MS65 on the slab label. Last year I found a gorgeous toned Lexington in MS63 which was quite affordable and far more attractive the some 64-66 examples I've handled. If your not registry minded needing points a original skinned Lexington in MS63 is a far better purchase to represent the type then the dipped examples which are now making it into MS67 holders. So if you focus on the coin itself and not the grade label there are some bang for the buck opportunities in this series. This series should be collected for it's beauty and history and if your buying the right examples each should still retain at least the purchase price even if values drop a bit further. >>

Agreed! I couldn't afford most of them at the higher grades, and I refused to pay a lot for the uglier issues, so I focused on collecting eye-appealing examples at grades I could afford. For example, the following three coins are graded AU58, MS63, MS64 respectively and I got them for way less than the gem examples would be.

As Broadstruck stated, there are bargains out there.

JH

david3142 · August 31, 2015 2:46AM

I have long thought that a set of beautifully toned commems would make a fantastic collecting endeavor. However, I am focused on other collecting pursuits at this time, and I've also been seeing the money that nice toners have been fetching - it's mindboggling!

golden · August 31, 2015 2:59AM

One of the worst coin investments of the last 20-25 years. Except for color coins the series is dead and will probably go lower.

291fifth · August 31, 2015 3:06AM

<< One of the worst coin investments of the last 20-25 years. Except for color coins the series is dead and will probably go lower. >>

Unfortunately, this is probably the case. They are a series that never seems to be able to sustain a rally.

BillJones · August 31, 2015 3:08AM

This Antietam is original, but it's not the kind of toning that the "crazy for toning" people want.

I'm buried into this one. I bought it when the price went from $1,600 in the late 1980s to $700 or $800 five or six years later. It's in an NGC MS-65 "fatty holder," but it's nicer than some pieces I've seen graded a point higher. It is virtually mark-free.

shorecoll · August 31, 2015 3:23AM

Commemdude showed a perfect example of a properly graded NGC coin...this shows that they CAN grade them properly...

TopographicOceans · August 31, 2015 3:29AM

I just sold a MS65 CAC for 50% of the price guide.

ElKevvo · August 31, 2015 12:06PM

There is no interest in them and I think they still have some more room to fall in value.

There is some interest! Not a lot but some. I do agree with the more room to fall in value.

K

bidask · August 31, 2015 12:26PM

If classic US commemoratives are weak should not modern commend be even weaker?

Zoins · August 31, 2015 1:35PM

<< If classic US commemoratives are weak should not modern commend be even weaker? >>

For the most part, other than UHR, ASB, and some others, aren't they?

BG · August 31, 2015 6:04PM

Some very good answers by most.

I know of no other series that has such a unique group of coins designed by our most talented designers, for the most part.

Each coin has it's own story to tell. I usually purchase coins one or two grades under the huge mark up points.

BillJones · August 31, 2015 10:00PM

<< If classic US commemoratives are weak should not modern commend be even weaker? >>

They are. A fair number of the $5 gold commemorative pieces have been sold for scrap.

7Jaguars · August 31, 2015 11:14PM

Which is why the "flipper madness" is so absolutely crazy to me - the end buyer is most likely IMO to be seriously screwed. Who really cares if the latest First Spouse/Hag has a low mintage? I do not know of a single actual collector of this series, let alone the Ike and Truman Collector sets or whatever people call them.

I will note that I did get one of the Daniel Carr "restrikes" of the Oregon Trail in what is essentially matte proof and absolutely love it - even though these are not my series (classic commems).

Elmhurst · September 1, 2015 11:43AM

Finally signed up for the forum because of this subject...

I've been buying some of these for a couple years now, as I think they are a good speculation. David Hall is recommending them for what that is worth. I figure what's been promoted before, will be promoted again.

Right now the only market for these appears to be super toned coins in 67-68...check Legend's site for some examples. I'm buying similar coins, but in 65-66, which can be had for about one-tenth the price. Given these depressed prices, I am not bothering with anything less than PQ 65s.

I'm glad to finally be on the forum, and look forward to your comments.

jcping · September 1, 2015 12:03PM

Welcome to the forum

BG · September 1, 2015 3:52PM

<< Finally signed up for the forum because of this subject...

I've been buying some of these for a couple years now, as I think they are a good speculation. David Hall is recommending them for what that is worth. I figure what's been promoted before, will be promoted again.

Right now the only market for these appears to be super toned coins in 67-68...check Legend's site for some examples. I'm buying similar coins, but in 65-66, which can be had for about one-tenth the price. Given these depressed prices, I am not bothering with anything less than PQ 65s.

I'm glad to finally be on the forum, and look forward to your comments. >>

Welcome to the forums.

Glad to see a first poster speaking of the early commemorative series.

Coin is raw with an approximate grade of MS62, sellers image.

Zoins · September 8, 2015 2:08PM

Just in case you missed it, check out this thread on the J&L rainbow Oregon. Not available and perhaps not what you're thinking of but it's a strong indicator that there is demand for toned condition rarities.

joebb21 · September 8, 2015 2:20PM

While obviously nobody wants to lose their money, with prices as low as they are in ms65-ms67 one can put together a very impressive set for very little money (relatively).

messydesk · September 8, 2015 11:34PM

I just finished my 50 coin set this year. There are a few coins I'll probably upgrade, but some of these may be "lateral" upgrades -- a nicer coin in the same grade. Maybe I'll do the Oregon or Texas sets sometime. Definitely cherrypick for grade in this series, as quality coins exist at all levels.

SeattleSlammer · September 9, 2015 1:01AM

<< Finally signed up for the forum because of this subject...

I've been buying some of these for a couple years now, as I think they are a good speculation. David Hall is recommending them for what that is worth. I figure what's been promoted before, will be promoted again.

Right now the only market for these appears to be super toned coins in 67-68...check Legend's site for some examples. I'm buying similar coins, but in 65-66, which can be had for about one-tenth the price. Given these depressed prices, I am not bothering with anything less than PQ 65s.

I'm glad to finally be on the forum, and look forward to your comments. >>

Welcome!
Classic commems with nice color (and luster) in all grades have done quite well.
IMO you should avoid the white ones except perhaps for the 'original' white examples of the true keys.
I've gone in and out of buying the commems but still can always find pretty toners that tempt me...

Thoughts on the Classic Silver Commemorative Series and Recent Values

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