Time right to sell?
VintagemanEd
Posts: 932 ✭✭✭
Is the time right to sell? I have been wondering this more and more lately.
I have some of the cards that have seen a major increase lately and some coveted wax boxes. I keep wondering if the time is right to cash in and reinvest in some other cards that may have potential to grow. Take a psa 6 hank Aaron RC and a psa 9 Jordan RC for example.... Have those 2 cards reached a Plateau for a while meaning they won't increase much over the next 5 Years for example? Or use a 78 topps bbce baseball wax box for another example...And if that is the prevailing thought then it is time to sell and reinvest in other cards that will move more in the next 5 years.... Thoughts?
I have some of the cards that have seen a major increase lately and some coveted wax boxes. I keep wondering if the time is right to cash in and reinvest in some other cards that may have potential to grow. Take a psa 6 hank Aaron RC and a psa 9 Jordan RC for example.... Have those 2 cards reached a Plateau for a while meaning they won't increase much over the next 5 Years for example? Or use a 78 topps bbce baseball wax box for another example...And if that is the prevailing thought then it is time to sell and reinvest in other cards that will move more in the next 5 years.... Thoughts?
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Comments
I do believe the best potential returns versus downside remain in higher-end products/cards with significant appeal (e.g., not no-name pop 1 cards). If it were solely for investment purposes, I'd recommend a five-figure card over several four figure cards, a six figure card over several five figure cards, etc.
<< <i>Is the time right to sell? I have been wondering this more and more lately.
I have some of the cards that have seen a major increase lately and some coveted wax boxes. I keep wondering if the time is right to cash in and reinvest in some other cards that may have potential to grow. Take a psa 6 hank Aaron RC and a psa 9 Jordan RC for example.... Have those 2 cards reached a Plateau for a while meaning they won't increase much over the next 5 Years for example? Or use a 78 topps bbce baseball wax box for another example...And if that is the prevailing thought then it is time to sell and reinvest in other cards that will move more in the next 5 years.... Thoughts? >>
Card prices for the most part follow the markets. Sure, mid/high end vintage as an investment has performed well the past 5 years but the Dow is up what, 7K points over that period? I mean everything has performed well.
If guys start getting their ass handed to them on other investments you can be sure that cards like the ones you've listed - expensive but not top market - will soften in price. I believe that the middle of the market has too much invested in cards, and posts like these reinforce to me that once things start going bad lots of guys are going to pull the plug because they are way over invested in cardboard.
long term: that 52 mantle 8 that shattered the record twice in 24 hours, will probably be worth twice that in 5-8 years.
so basically it depends on your needs....
<< <i>
<< <i>Is the time right to sell? I have been wondering this more and more lately.
I have some of the cards that have seen a major increase lately and some coveted wax boxes. I keep wondering if the time is right to cash in and reinvest in some other cards that may have potential to grow. Take a psa 6 hank Aaron RC and a psa 9 Jordan RC for example.... Have those 2 cards reached a Plateau for a while meaning they won't increase much over the next 5 Years for example? Or use a 78 topps bbce baseball wax box for another example...And if that is the prevailing thought then it is time to sell and reinvest in other cards that will move more in the next 5 years.... Thoughts? >>
Card prices for the most part follow the markets. Sure, mid/high end vintage as an investment has performed well the past 5 years but the Dow is up what, 7K points over that period? I mean everything has performed well.
If guys start getting their ass handed to them on other investments you can be sure that cards like the ones you've listed - expensive but not top market - will soften in price. I believe that the middle of the market has too much invested in cards, and posts like these reinforce to me that once things start going bad lots of guys are going to pull the plug because they are way over invested in cardboard. >>
I agree with your assessment, but believe that the downside percentage would be less than being in the next tier down. The squeeze on discretionary income starts at the bottom and works up, and the rebound starts at the top and works down. Unfortunately, it's not as much fun to have just a couple of collectibles. I've held on to all my sentimental lower-end items and cleared out most of the items that are "tweeners" in value.
The only area in the hobby that is even close to undervalued are the PED stars - Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Clemens, ARod etc. Even then the key rookies have risen with the rest of the market. I think theses players will get into the Hall, especially Bonds. Every once in a while I look up his 2001-2004 stats to show people that PEDs do work.
As was posted above, it's all about one's personal situation and needs; if one needs cash now, it's a good time to sell, with some more time to run; if one is not pressed for cash, it's hard to pull the trigger on selling a beloved blue chip card that will only cost more to replace many years down the road. So I believe the post by Begsu above is really right, in that the answer to the question of selling is one that is dependent on variables that are personal to each individual. What do I love to collect? Where on the collector-investor spectrum would I like to fall? How long do I want to hold my cards? Are there cards I can really love as a collector, that are better investments than others I love? What big ticket life purchases loom ahead for me (house, renovations, college tuition, etc.)? So there are many things to consider.
<< <i>If you are planning to buy in again, then it doesn't make sense to sell since prices have gone up consistently every year. The last few years have seen rapid increases, but I still think prices will be higher next year. The people in our hobby tend to have means so it would take a pretty severe downturn for prices of the quality material to fall. >>
I think this is also very true. I know the economic sky could fall and I'd still pay through the nose for certain cards, LOL!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>If you're not attached to what you're collecting, sell if you need the money or don't get enjoyment out of what you have. There is no right or wrong time to sell and timing markets has proven a foolish pursuit in the past for the most part. This is a hobby, after all. >>
To build on grote's point, we are grown men collecting pieces of cardboard with pictures on them. Sometimes these pieces of cardboard are encased between plastic or wrapped in shrinkwrap. I'm sure an outsider would think we are all crazy.
<< <i>
<< <i>If you're not attached to what you're collecting, sell if you need the money or don't get enjoyment out of what you have. There is no right or wrong time to sell and timing markets has proven a foolish pursuit in the past for the most part. This is a hobby, after all. >>
To build on grote's point, we are grown men collecting pieces of cardboard with pictures on them. Sometimes these pieces of cardboard are encased between plastic or wrapped in shrinkwrap. I'm sure an outsider would think we are all crazy. >>
Mrs. Grote will vouch for that, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I don't do a lot of sets and I no longer buy Heritage each year.
I went to "other" types of memorabilia - over the past 25 yrs - for the visual appeal and a different perspective with respect to the history behind a particular item and the "tactile" experience it engenders.
In no way is "my method" better. Just different.
It was just the fact that I was sitting on cards that I would have to make an effort to view - now if I only had more wall space and real estate.
If one is sitting on stuff that has substantially appreciated and getting no gratification? Why not sell and find something that will.
And not getting into if a person needs the money or what is sentimental etc. just from a investment standpoint is it a good time to sell assuming you have a strong idea of new items to buy with the money that will appreciate in value
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Ed, I know what you're getting at, and recall this isn't the first thread you've started about this topic and strict investment potential of cards, but imo that should not be what collecting or this hobby should be about. There are plenty of other avenues to talk about investment potential. IMO, cardboard and this hobby should offer an escape from that and a segue towards a simpler and happier time, which is why many here began collecting in the first place. If you need the money, that's a different story, but if not, why not enjoy what brought you to collecting in the first place? It's not all about realizing the maximum rate of return. >>
Well stated
<< <i>
<< <i>Ed, I know what you're getting at, and recall this isn't the first thread you've started about this topic and strict investment potential of cards, but imo that should not be what collecting or this hobby should be about. There are plenty of other avenues to talk about investment potential. IMO, cardboard and this hobby should offer an escape from that and a segue towards a simpler and happier time, which is why many here began collecting in the first place. If you need the money, that's a different story, but if not, why not enjoy what brought you to collecting in the first place? It's not all about realizing the maximum rate of return. >>
Well stated
+1
<< <i>Ed, I know what you're getting at, and recall this isn't the first thread you've started about this topic and strict investment potential of cards, but imo that should not be what collecting or this hobby should be about. There are plenty of other avenues to talk about investment potential. IMO, cardboard and this hobby should offer an escape from that and a segue towards a simpler and happier time, which is why many here began collecting in the first place. If you need the money, that's a different story, but if not, why not enjoy what brought you to collecting in the first place? It's not all about realizing the maximum rate of return. >>
+Infinity
<< <i>And then it'll go up again, then down again, then up again... And if one sells cards that took him a while to find and select, makes a profit that really isn't life changing, then tries to find all the cards again before the next upswing...this cycle repeated would probably get tedious for a collector. All depends what one is in it all for. >>
Depending on how bad this coming correction is could determine that. Experts say the next big one could be a game changer and wipe out a lot of middle and upper middle class. A lot of that bracket are what's driving this current card market bubble. I wouldn't want record money tied up in cards when the economy starts going south. I'm not trying to upset anyone by saying that. Just being honest.
<< <i>Hear ya, but no one has a crystal ball. Economic "experts" are out there all across the spectrum, but only time will tell. And if the world crumbles, and ten or even fifty grand makes the difference between life and death, heck, that's an apocalyptic world with much bigger problems than having to hold some baseball cards til the next recovery period. I'm more moderate in my own forward view, and personally would never panic sell on a worst case possible future scenario. Besides, when Skynet goes online, it's all over anyway
+1
No one knows what's going to happen, though many claim to by continuing to make predictions. I understand there are those who keep anticipating an economic meltdown, but this life is precious so why keep harping on the negative or pessimistic outlooks. Geez, this is a hobby message board. Do we really need to dwell on that kind of discussion here?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Hear ya, but no one has a crystal ball. Economic "experts" are out there all across the spectrum, but only time will tell. And if the world crumbles, and ten or even fifty grand makes the difference between life and death, heck, that's an apocalyptic world with much bigger problems than having to hold some baseball cards til the next recovery period. I'm more moderate in my own forward view, and personally would never panic sell on a worst case possible future scenario. Besides, when Skynet goes online, it's all over anyway
+1
No one knows what's going to happen, though many claim to by continuing to make predictions. I understand there are those who keep anticipating an economic meltdown, but this life is precious so why keep harping on the negative or pessimistic outlooks. Geez, this is a hobby message board. Do we really need to dwell on that kind of discussion here? >>
The anticipated economic issues are expected because they are starting to unfold all around the globe. They are coming here due to unsustainable debt and artificially pumped up markets that are going to have correction. Some live in the real world and factor real world issues in to how it will affect their life down the road. Others choose not to. Everyone has different ideas on how to live. Some get caught with their pants down when they don't prepare ahead of time. Others don't. It's a matter of personal preference. Good luck with your decisions.
If you have some disposable income and want an investment you can see, feel, touch and rekindle childhood memories, then yes, you should buy.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
<< <i>Hear ya, but no one has a crystal ball. Economic "experts" are out there all across the spectrum, but only time will tell. And if the world crumbles, and ten or even fifty grand makes the difference between life and death, heck, that's an apocalyptic world with much bigger problems than having to hold some baseball cards til the next recovery period. I'm more moderate in my own forward view, and personally would never panic sell on a worst case possible future scenario. Besides, when Skynet goes online, it's all over anyway
Completely forgot about Skynet - time to sell all of my Canseco and Bonilla rookies to pay for a bunker. Thanks - you are a lifesaver!
On a serious note I think there are valid points on both sides. If you have a bunch of money tied up in cards compared to your net worth and want to realize a profit/hedge against an economic downtown now is a good time to sell based on limited supply and high demand.
If you collect cards because you enjoy them and they take you back to your younger childhood days and a simpler time in your life that was both innocent and fun and filled with great memories of baseball you should keep them.
If you do a little bit of both you should keep the ones you cannot live without and sell what you don't think you will miss. At the end of the day collect things you enjoy no matter if they go up or down in price - when you do that you will enjoy collecting.
It sounds like your question is angled towards thinking about your cards as an investment. This is currently a sellers' market so if you have cards you want to move it is a good time to sell. I would look at each card you are considering and think if the "apocalypse" happens and this card is not worth anything would you still enjoy it? If the answer is no then you should sell.
Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona.
-George F. Will
<< <i>
<< <i>Hear ya, but no one has a crystal ball. Economic "experts" are out there all across the spectrum, but only time will tell. And if the world crumbles, and ten or even fifty grand makes the difference between life and death, heck, that's an apocalyptic world with much bigger problems than having to hold some baseball cards til the next recovery period. I'm more moderate in my own forward view, and personally would never panic sell on a worst case possible future scenario. Besides, when Skynet goes online, it's all over anyway
+1
No one knows what's going to happen, though many claim to by continuing to make predictions. I understand there are those who keep anticipating an economic meltdown, but this life is precious so why keep harping on the negative or pessimistic outlooks. Geez, this is a hobby message board. Do we really need to dwell on that kind of discussion here? >>
+1
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Hear ya, but no one has a crystal ball. Economic "experts" are out there all across the spectrum, but only time will tell. And if the world crumbles, and ten or even fifty grand makes the difference between life and death, heck, that's an apocalyptic world with much bigger problems than having to hold some baseball cards til the next recovery period. I'm more moderate in my own forward view, and personally would never panic sell on a worst case possible future scenario. Besides, when Skynet goes online, it's all over anyway
+1
No one knows what's going to happen, though many claim to by continuing to make predictions. I understand there are those who keep anticipating an economic meltdown, but this life is precious so why keep harping on the negative or pessimistic outlooks. Geez, this is a hobby message board. Do we really need to dwell on that kind of discussion here? >>
The anticipated economic issues are expected because they are starting to unfold all around the globe. They are coming here due to unsustainable debt and artificially pumped up markets that are going to have correction. Some live in the real world and factor real world issues in to how it will affect their life down the road. Others choose not to. Everyone has different ideas on how to live. Some get caught with their pants down when they don't prepare ahead of time. Others don't. It's a matter of personal preference. Good luck with your decisions. >>
Keep predicting disaster, and eventually you'll be right. As well as miserable in the meantime. Good luck with that decision.
<< <i>It's common knowledge that the economy is bound to collapse due to the combined forces of Obama, the Pope, and the Reticulan-controlled Illuminati. >>
Only at the behest of the Bilderberg Group.
I track the appreciation/depreciation of certain cards that I may be interested in purchasing so I know that I'm not overpaying for stuff that I may buy, and while I take into account somewhat "what the card MAY be worth in the future", at the end of the day, I'm not going to purchase something if I'm not going to enjoy it.
With that being said, collecting focuses have shifted for me somewhat, and I was able to sell some stuff that I acquired and made a profit. The only reason that I sold is that I wasn't getting any enjoyment out of the items anymore and decided it was time to refocus. "Making a profit" had no bearing on WHY I sold. Another reason for selling is that with getting married, a baby, I don't have the disposable income regarding cards anymore, so to buy, I often have to sell, per my wife's instructions
I just think that thinking about money, price appreciation, getting upset when your cards "go down", just take away from what it is really all about.
Jeremy
In terms of the card market. Trying to pick a top and then do sector rotation sounds almost impossible. A few months back I said I thought a Mantle that sold for $258,000 seemed like potentially a peak for a while. Yeah I was wrong. Very wrong. Personally I would think if the marquee cards began to decline it would make it harder for less desirable cards to rise.
There is a bear market already developing in the stock market. All one has to do is look at loads of stock charts and there has been a lot of pain already in individual names. Indexes have masked this due to weighting structures. This oil collapse is getting serious and the small amount consumers have saved has done very little to boost the economy. Time will tell how this all plays out. We live in a global economy and if this slow down in China accelerates we will all feel the pinch. In the mean time we all just have to put our heads down and try and make money and enjoy life to the fullest.
<< <i>It's one thing to look to the future and see signs of concern. It's another to take highly complex economic projections and treat them like irrefutable fact. Especially when they're uniformly negative and largely tinfoil hat-ish. >>
Agreed, there was a fellow here a while back that had an insane 70's collection and was on the doom and gloom train, tinfoil hat style. I believe he sold all his collection to either hold as cash or put into metals. That was around two years ago and the US economy just keeps on chugging along. The gold bugs have been calling for market collapse for the last 5-7 years and price of gold is right around where it was in 2010.
Things are definitely not perfect but the US and Canada are two of the most stable economy's in the world, and I sure sleep well at night.
and you're living beyond all your means...
the man in the suit has just bought a new car
from the profit he's made on your dream..
but it wasn't the bullet that laid him to rest
it was....
<< <i>Just because someone thinks there are major problems on the horizon doesn't make them miserable. The global debt is simply not sustainable. If someone doesn't realize that they are either delusional or they simply do not know how to use a calculator. The primary reason the FED has refused to raise rates is it is painfully obvious if rates rise it will not only impact economic activity it will cause the interest expense of our national debt to explode and you can't get the economy to grow fast enough to generate additional tax revenue sufficient to cover that added expense. It is just simple math.
In terms of the card market. Trying to pick a top and then do sector rotation sounds almost impossible. A few months back I said I thought a Mantle that sold for $258,000 seemed like potentially a peak for a while. Yeah I was wrong. Very wrong. Personally I would think if the marquee cards began to decline it would make it harder for less desirable cards to rise.
There is a bear market already developing in the stock market. All one has to do is look at loads of stock charts and there has been a lot of pain already in individual names. Indexes have masked this due to weighting structures. This oil collapse is getting serious and the small amount consumers have saved has done very little to boost the economy. Time will tell how this all plays out. We live in a global economy and if this slow down in China accelerates we will all feel the pinch. In the mean time we all just have to put our heads down and try and make money and enjoy life to the fullest. >>
Well, since we're talking about global debt on a sportscard board, the chart in the link may prove insightful. Or be meaningless. But the comments at least seem worthwhile. Have at it!
Ginormous debt chart
But on a large economy or global basis, what does the amount of debt really mean from a practical point of view? Is there some galactic collection agency that goes from planet to planet collecting debt payments? Is some agency going to show up and take the planet away from us?
I don't want to get all tin hat, but all money printed is really based on faith of the people using it as a store of value. Generally speaking, I would like us to live within our means, but $57 Trillion in debt is so large that it becomes almost irrelevant from a practical point of view. As long humanity keeps moving forward, we will just continue to kick the can down the road since paying it off is impossible.
<< <i>
<< <i>Ed, I know what you're getting at, and recall this isn't the first thread you've started about this topic and strict investment potential of cards, but imo that should not be what collecting or this hobby should be about. There are plenty of other avenues to talk about investment potential. IMO, cardboard and this hobby should offer an escape from that and a segue towards a simpler and happier time, which is why many here began collecting in the first place. If you need the money, that's a different story, but if not, why not enjoy what brought you to collecting in the first place? It's not all about realizing the maximum rate of return. >>
Well stated
Totally agree.
Anything else just sounds like work.
Thanx Tim for breaking the ice.
Fact: don't drink and drive.
Fact: don't hobby and invest.
It just sucks all the fun out of it.
Now, if one has to liquidate due to a disaster? And your stuff has appreciated? Say Wow! And later go back to hobbying.
Regarding the card market, I don't think it's bullet proof. If someone says that the 1952 Topps Mantle is recession-proof, I think they're drinking the same Kool Aid as those who said that the real estate market would only go up because people have got to live somewhere. Again, I'd say that the chances of these iconic cards tanking is still only 5-10%, but prices being flat or bumpy wouldn't surprise me in the least. Therefore, if someone wants to take some profit out of their collection/investment, I think that's perfectly fine and sane to do.
I think with any investment class, it can be herd mentality. When prices go up, people see the "paper money" value of their collection go up. Therefore, they are keen for more buying or using their profits from their sales to put back into their collection. However, if prices start consistently going down, the opposite effect can occur.
For myself, I think the rare and iconic cards will always be in demand because there are only so many of them out there, and collectors will always want them. And as others have said, this is also a hobby, so collectors should also try to enjoy that value of it rather than just the monetary value of their collection.
Lou Gehrig Master Set
Non-Registry Collection
Game Used Cards Collection