Will we see 10 dollar an ounce silver again? In the next 3 years?
fc
Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭
I have been waiting for silver to drop in price so I can start buying again. I put a target of 10 dollars an ounce before I would start making purchases.
The last time we saw a price in that area was 2008-2009 which seems like forever ago but is not.
I am curious if anyone here thinks silver will drop that low again? If it does what would you do?
I enjoyed buying bullion several years ago and I am hoping I get the chance again at low prices. Gold under 700 would be fun as well!
Feel free to share or rip me a new one. I truly think patience will pay off in the case of gold and silver if you plan to buy in the next few years.
The last time we saw a price in that area was 2008-2009 which seems like forever ago but is not.
I am curious if anyone here thinks silver will drop that low again? If it does what would you do?
I enjoyed buying bullion several years ago and I am hoping I get the chance again at low prices. Gold under 700 would be fun as well!
Feel free to share or rip me a new one. I truly think patience will pay off in the case of gold and silver if you plan to buy in the next few years.
0
Comments
I knew it would happen.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>I don't think so for physical. The costs to pull it out of the ground are more than that the last time I checked. If it drops that low, it wouldn't be profitable to mine it, while modern technologies need it. That would probably lead to shortages. Shortages tends to push up prices. I honestly don't think we will ever see $10 an ounce silver again. I could be wrong. >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is meaningless, and does not dictate the price one can buy physical silver for...
Remember for the last hundred years, generally speaking, hyperbole ( sorry I must explain while I post, but a few dense here), the price of silver has been under $10 for more than anyone's lifetime here... But ya know now it's over $10 so the people who can add and subtract real good can't comprehend how it can be bought or priced lower, but that's another tale to tell... I think at $30 it was said its unprofitable and at $25 and at $20... You get my drift...
Now if this battery deal becomes huge and robotics, then one may expect energy costs to plummet in the future ...
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think so for physical. The costs to pull it out of the ground are more than that the last time I checked. If it drops that low, it wouldn't be profitable to mine it, while modern technologies need it. That would probably lead to shortages. Shortages tends to push up prices. I honestly don't think we will ever see $10 an ounce silver again. I could be wrong. >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is meaningless, and does not dictate the price one can buy physical silver for...
Remember for the last hundred years, generally speaking, hyperbole ( sorry I must explain while I post, but a few dense here), the price of silver has been under $10 for more than anyone's lifetime here... But ya know now it's over $10 so the people who can add and subtract real good can't comprehend how it can be bought or priced lower, but that's another tale to tell... I think at $30 it was said its unprofitable and at $25 and at $20... You get my drift...
Now if this battery deal becomes huge and robotics, then one may expect energy costs to plummet in the future ... >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is not meaningless to the guys pulling it out of the ground. If they find it's not worth their time, they won't do it. Then you have a shortage. Supply vs demand. It affects the price whether you realize it or not.
Anyway, I'd be backing up the truck at those prices and lower and I think I'm just about in the middle of the spectrum of investors who are diversified into precious metals
Grew very skeptical above $25 silver and $1500 gold, for the very same reasons
10 fingers. Think about it
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Being exceedingly "dense", I've given it some thought.
On one hand, I count 5 fingers.
On the other hand, I count 5 more.
I knew it would happen.
Which hand???...
If I knew if it was headed to $10 I wouldn't buy another oz, but because I don't know that, I continue to buy...and I continue to sell when it makes sense to too.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think so for physical. The costs to pull it out of the ground are more than that the last time I checked. If it drops that low, it wouldn't be profitable to mine it, while modern technologies need it. That would probably lead to shortages. Shortages tends to push up prices. I honestly don't think we will ever see $10 an ounce silver again. I could be wrong. >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is meaningless, and does not dictate the price one can buy physical silver for...
Remember for the last hundred years, generally speaking, hyperbole ( sorry I must explain while I post, but a few dense here), the price of silver has been under $10 for more than anyone's lifetime here... But ya know now it's over $10 so the people who can add and subtract real good can't comprehend how it can be bought or priced lower, but that's another tale to tell... I think at $30 it was said its unprofitable and at $25 and at $20... You get my drift...
Now if this battery deal becomes huge and robotics, then one may expect energy costs to plummet in the future ... >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is not meaningless to the guys pulling it out of the ground. If they find it's not worth their time, they won't do it. Then you have a shortage. Supply vs demand. It affects the price whether you realize it or not. >>
The cost is meaningless because it was a byproduct. Soon to revert to that status.
Swat, Confucius say human born with two ears and one mouth should listen twice as much as talk. Highly relavent in your case because from reading your posts you might want to do a lot more listening for your own good. And the good of others also.
<< <i>.....The cost is meaningless because it was a byproduct. Soon to revert to that status...... >>
The silver companies I monitor, which include many of the bigger ones, have silver as their primary metal, and gold and other base metals as secondaries. Fresnillo, one of the world's largest silver miner produces 65 MILL oz of silver vs. 500K in gold. That's a 130-1 ratio, far higher than the current 73-1 Gold to Silver ratio. That's about 1.8X silver vs. gold value ratio (ie top heavy silver). Pan American Silver produces 26 MILL silver and 160K oz in gold....or a 162-1 ratio - or a 2.25X silver to gold value ratio. The cost is not meaningless to these guys....and it will never revert to that status. When above ground supplies of silver are nearing exhaustion, the cost of getting it out of the ground is very important to it market price. Best I can find, the amount of silver above ground is anywhere from 3 BILL oz to 25 BILL oz. I think the 5-15 BILL range is the most reasonable....or 6-18 years of current annual demand....spread all around the world and mostly in the hands of Asian women. And just because silver is in someone's hand doesn't mean they are going to give it up for $10/oz or $8/oz. You've got to find that person.
The link below shows primary gold and silver miners resulting in 42% of the world's silver. It's probably higher than that since copper and gold are often mined together and results in another possible 20% added to the 42% (ie up to 62%). As general mining slows for base metals, so will the output of byproduct silver, increasing the silver demand/supply deficit expected in 2015-2016. Byproduct mining in decline will only make silver's deficit increase. And unlike gold, there's no 50 years of above ground supplies to soften a demand swing.
Silver Institute 2014 report
Despite Rawteam's inferences about "numerology" there is potentially a logical reason silver could fall to <$10/oz. That can be seen in its chart. Unlike gold, silver had a dip in Oct 2008 that took out the 2006 low. That's the same setup we've seen in numerous commodities, gold/silver miners, and some of the dollar currency pairs (successive lower major lows). Those guys have been routinely taking out their 2008 lows. And the chart pattern that has been suggesting such a move is the unstable expanding wedge pattern from 2006-2011. Silver has such a pattern too. Silver's 2008 low is in the $8-$9 range. While I don't expect gold to take out the 2008 low of $681 (ie no wedge), silver is a touchier subject. And considering all the other commodities that have retraced below 2008, why would silver be totally immune? Not saying it will....only saying the chart pattern invites the potential.
If you look at silver's 5 year wedge, it probably never should have gotten above $35-$40/oz....just like in 1979/1980. But manias tend to take things higher than expected....and lower too. That huge wedge is trying to pull price all the way back to the lower trend line, or around $6. Just because it's being drawn back towards that level doesn't mean it gets there. The center line of that wedge is approx $12.50....also a strong pull point in its own right.
I've heard it said several times that below $10 silver is a byproduct metal regarding mining.
Similar to cobalt. It's in the ore and you extract it but all the costs of the ore can be costed to other accounts.
Are you familiar with this hypothesis? That's how silver was kept at $5 for so long.
<< <i>RR,
I've heard it said several times that below $10 silver is a byproduct metal regarding mining.
Similar to cobalt. It's in the ore and you extract it but all the costs of the ore can be costed to other accounts.
Are you familiar with this hypothesis? That's how silver was kept at $5 for so long. >>
I've never quite heard it put that way. It still comes down to the bottom line (all in sustaining costs). If the bottom line is good, you continue to mine it. Those silver producers where their primary product is silver, will continue to mine it based on the silver price, and less on any by-products. I always figured silver was kept at $5 for so long because there were huge supplies and hoards around the world that needed to be dispersed and used up. Took 20 years to do it. And the Rubin/Summers "strong dollar policy/gold carry trade" of the 1995-2002 period kept both metals down beyond the initial 13 year decline of 1980-1993. Silver actually bottomed in 1993 at $3.50/oz. It should have by all rights doubled and tripled during the stock market/economic runs of the 1990's. But credit the strong dollar policy and mining hedges in keeping silver down from 1993-2003. When those miner hedges came off, and the strong dollar policy became the weak dollar policy....silver exploded. The recession of 2001-2003 also helped to keep silver nearly flat....while gold rose 50% in that same period. That's my understanding of what kept silver under wraps from 1983-2003.
Having reached $50 in 1980 was another reason silver stayed low for so long.....it had rallied from 25c in the early 1930's....a nearly 50 year rally. Took some time to work that off. Less to do with by-products imo and more with just price vs. time + govt interventions. Warren Buffet saw the potential in silver in the 1994-1996 period and started buying heavily. He accumulated 130 MILL ounces of physical...essentially on par with the Hunt Brothers. Maybe he didn't know he was fighting the Rubin/Summers cartel. In any case he bailed out of the position by early 2006 when silver was just ready to explode in price from $6 to $21 by 2008. If Buffet saw the potential in 1994 there was surely more involved than we can see. I think he was persuaded to get out as a patriotic move. If he got "concessions" they were probably worth much more than what he could have made on silver. During his buying in those years Buffet nearly doubled the silver price on his own. Being the classic long term value buyer, it makes little sense to me that he sold on his own within a 10 yr time frame.
I've read numerous quarterly mining reports where companies like Yamana report by-product costs, making it look like they are mining money for free and making money hand over fist. I've seen some reports were they claimed a net "negative" mining costs due to by-products. I kid you not. Money from nothing. . A perpetual "wealth" machine. Yet they can't make a profit over the past several years....lol. The by-product cost accounting does more to cloud their true mining costs than anything else. The sooner they get rid of the BS by-product net costs, the quicker they will recover. Investors are tired of the hocus-pocus crap on miner's quarterly reports. AISC is the first step.
I don't think we get to $10 silver either. $12-$13 is about as low as I think it could go. It has retested the 2008 support and retraced back to the 2006 high. That's plenty and all you can ask in a strong retest. Gold on the other hand still hasn't retested the 2009 break out level of $1033-$1045. That's a hole in the chart. And it hasn't retested the 2008 support levels ($990, $890.) like silver and the miners have. That $890 level was retested multiple times in both directions. I got tired of seeing it. If gold heads back to $1040 (or lower) I don't see how silver could not help going down to $12-$13 (or lower).
The lows we experienced this summer will likely prove to have been your best buying opportunity.
It ALL costs $, so if someone is trying to convince you there's no dollar amount everyone involved is concerned about, they're full of shh-it.
<< <i>I don't care if it's free to get out of the ground (it isn't, did the miner not have to purchase the land to mine it) it still costs $ to get it from point A to point B. It costs point B money to refine it and "shape it" into whatever it's going to be sold as. Then it has to be shipped/transported to point C. Point C has to buy it in volume to make it worth their while to distribute. Point C also has to advertise what came out of the ground is in the form of now. They have to make a profit.
It ALL costs $, so if someone is trying to convince you there's no dollar amount everyone involved is concerned about, they're full of shh-it. >>
Yeah, that works somewhat ok with silver. But with a potential 6-18 yr overhang of supply, the price could remain lower than expected for years. Gold on the other hand with nearly unlimited supply (50 yrs) could have its price depressed for another 10 years with all the world's gold mines shutdown...if that's what the PTB decided was best for everybody.
I've suggested before that the mining paradigm could be dead....or soon to be, especially at <$1300 gold and $16 silver. It's not 1934, 1979, or 2010 any more. The biggest risks in mining are now geo-political and environmental (taxes, royalties, permits, lawsuits, natural disasters). And it doesn't help that these guys dig up to 2-1/2 miles high or 2-3 miles deep to find PM's. Andy Hoffman of Franklin Metals has come to the conclusion that when the currency bang up finally comes, all these mines will be nationalized as strategic assets (ie money). That metal won't be allowed to leave the country....until the sovereign entity gets full compensation for it....not the 3-15% in royalties they currently get. That essentially already happens in China and Russia. At that stage, the game will be totally different. And if it got that bad....the cheapest mining operation is to just take it from your own people. No fees and no costs. It would be interesting to see some backwards nations try to extract PM's with only limited local help and minimal technical knowledge. Some have already tried it....and not very successfully.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think so for physical. The costs to pull it out of the ground are more than that the last time I checked. If it drops that low, it wouldn't be profitable to mine it, while modern technologies need it. That would probably lead to shortages. Shortages tends to push up prices. I honestly don't think we will ever see $10 an ounce silver again. I could be wrong. >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is meaningless, and does not dictate the price one can buy physical silver for...
Remember for the last hundred years, generally speaking, hyperbole ( sorry I must explain while I post, but a few dense here), the price of silver has been under $10 for more than anyone's lifetime here... But ya know now it's over $10 so the people who can add and subtract real good can't comprehend how it can be bought or priced lower, but that's another tale to tell... I think at $30 it was said its unprofitable and at $25 and at $20... You get my drift...
Now if this battery deal becomes huge and robotics, then one may expect energy costs to plummet in the future ... >>
The cost to pull it out of the ground is not meaningless to the guys pulling it out of the ground. If they find it's not worth their time, they won't do it. Then you have a shortage. Supply vs demand. It affects the price whether you realize it or not. >>
The cost is meaningless because it was a byproduct. Soon to revert to that status.
Swat, Confucius say human born with two ears and one mouth should listen twice as much as talk. Highly relavent in your case because from reading your posts you might want to do a lot more listening for your own good. And the good of others also. >>
Take your own advice. I have just as much of a right to post my opinions as you or anyone else does. Don't try and squash my voice and not expect me to say something. I would rather have peace on this forum. But if you keep coming at me like you have the last day or two, I will only play as nice as you do.
You don't seem to understand everything it takes to get that silver broke down and ready for purchase. If you did, you could see why $10 an ounce silver is highly unlikely from here on out.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't care if it's free to get out of the ground (it isn't, did the miner not have to purchase the land to mine it) it still costs $ to get it from point A to point B. It costs point B money to refine it and "shape it" into whatever it's going to be sold as. Then it has to be shipped/transported to point C. Point C has to buy it in volume to make it worth their while to distribute. Point C also has to advertise what came out of the ground is in the form of now. They have to make a profit.
It ALL costs $, so if someone is trying to convince you there's no dollar amount everyone involved is concerned about, they're full of shh-it. >>
Yeah, that works somewhat ok with silver. But with a potential 6-18 yr overhang of supply, the price could remain lower than expected for years. Gold on the other hand with nearly unlimited supply (50 yrs) could have its price depressed for another 10 years with all the world's gold mines shutdown...if that's what the PTB decided was best for everybody.
I've suggested before that the mining paradigm could be dead....or soon to be, especially at <$1300 gold and $16 silver. It's not 1934, 1979, or 2010 any more. The biggest risks in mining are now geo-political and environmental (taxes, royalties, permits, lawsuits, natural disasters). And it doesn't help that these guys dig up to 2-1/2 miles high or 2-3 miles deep to find PM's. Andy Hoffman of Franklin Metals has come to the conclusion that when the currency bang up finally comes, all these mines will be nationalized as strategic assets (ie money). That metal won't be allowed to leave the country....until the sovereign entity gets full compensation for it....not the 3-15% in royalties they currently get. That essentially already happens in China and Russia. At that stage, the game will be totally different. And if it got that bad....the cheapest mining operation is to just take it from your own people. No fees and no costs. It would be interesting to see some backwards nations try to extract PM's with only limited local help and minimal technical knowledge. Some have already tried it....and not very successfully. >>
6-18 years?
The way the market seems to disfunction, it'd be the start of mine shut downs before the market cares.
Sorry, I'm a stacker too, but you have to face reality, deflation is going to be with us for quite some time. Did I hear a cry of "But they're printing so much money", no they aren't. They're creating electronic blips that do not circulate as cash per se would. Inflation is when there's too much cash chasing too few goods, deflation is too little cash chasing too many goods. We're experiencing the latter at the moment.
This grasshopper has learned a valuable lesson on when to sell, and the next time it cracks $28 an ounce I will sell half of my stash. The other half will be sold if it cracks $40.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't care if it's free to get out of the ground (it isn't, did the miner not have to purchase the land to mine it) it still costs $ to get it from point A to point B. It costs point B money to refine it and "shape it" into whatever it's going to be sold as. Then it has to be shipped/transported to point C. Point C has to buy it in volume to make it worth their while to distribute. Point C also has to advertise what came out of the ground is in the form of now. They have to make a profit.
It ALL costs $, so if someone is trying to convince you there's no dollar amount everyone involved is concerned about, they're full of shh-it. >>
Yeah, that works somewhat ok with silver. But with a potential 6-18 yr overhang of supply, the price could remain lower than expected for years. Gold on the other hand with nearly unlimited supply (50 yrs) could have its price depressed for another 10 years with all the world's gold mines shutdown...if that's what the PTB decided was best for everybody.
I've suggested before that the mining paradigm could be dead....or soon to be, especially at <$1300 gold and $16 silver. It's not 1934, 1979, or 2010 any more. The biggest risks in mining are now geo-political and environmental (taxes, royalties, permits, lawsuits, natural disasters). And it doesn't help that these guys dig up to 2-1/2 miles high or 2-3 miles deep to find PM's. Andy Hoffman of Franklin Metals has come to the conclusion that when the currency bang up finally comes, all these mines will be nationalized as strategic assets (ie money). That metal won't be allowed to leave the country....until the sovereign entity gets full compensation for it....not the 3-15% in royalties they currently get. That essentially already happens in China and Russia. At that stage, the game will be totally different. And if it got that bad....the cheapest mining operation is to just take it from your own people. No fees and no costs. It would be interesting to see some backwards nations try to extract PM's with only limited local help and minimal technical knowledge. Some have already tried it....and not very successfully. >>
6-18 years?
The way the market seems to disfunction, it'd be the start of mine shut downs before the market cares. >>
Mine shutdowns and B&M metals stores on every corner starting to shut down would help to move the price back up.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>Oh absolutely! Sub 10 is assured and probably in Q3 next year, maybe sooner
Sorry, I'm a stacker too, but you have to face reality, deflation is going to be with us for quite some time. Did I hear a cry of "But they're printing so much money", no they aren't. They're creating electronic blips that do not circulate as cash per se would. Inflation is when there's too much cash chasing too few goods, deflation is too little cash chasing too many goods. We're experiencing the latter at the moment. >>
Nothing is assured. Reality is that gold has gone up at times during deflation, and silver held its own. That occurred in the deflation/recession of 2000-2003 with gold up +50% while silver meandered between $4-$6 (median price approx $5.00). The first 2/3 of the 1970's was deflationary, and then interest rates doubled in the final 3 years of that decade.....PMs did fine in both environments. There is no one recipe that works at all times. PMs are best related to confidence in govt's and currencies. You can have a lack of confidence in either deflationary or inflationary scenarios. The original origin of financial inflation comes from the money supply...not consumer prices. And monetary inflation has been rising steadily for the past 6 years.
We've already seen "buy gold" businesses (and coin shops) on nearly every corner of our cities. They have been in contraction for the past 4-5 years. Getting harder to find one. I doubt they'll be coming back in droves like they did in 2009-2012. But you never know. ` Probably tens of thousands of gold and silver tonnes have gone from West to East over the past 5-10 years. There's far less easy gold/silver in the US to acquire/trade/deal for than there was just a few years ago. That's not going to easily support re-booming pawn shops like Good Old Tom's or Fast Eddie's, as well as the $CASH4GOLD businesses.
<< <i> 6-18 years?
The way the market seems to disfunction, it'd be the start of mine shut downs before the market cares. >>
Then how would you explain gold miners being in business where the overhang is 50 years of world supply? 2014 was the all time, record production.
<< <i>$10 silver will not be seen again. Not unless we see $1.00/gallon gasoline. So if deflation took oil to $20/barrel? Then maybe.
The lows we experienced this summer will likely prove to have been your best buying opportunity. >>
My YouTube Channel
<< <i>Thanks everyone for the thoughts. Still a lot of bullishness here right? I was tempted to buy some silver at 14ish but held off. I wish I could say the same things for some oil stocks I bought a week or two ago! >>
I wouldn't bet the farm on "bullish" sentiment around here....potentially misleading. I won't be underwater on my remaining bullion silver positions until around $6-$8. And no way I'd sell at those levels any ways. There are bulls around here who just won't sell. And then there are bears who just won't buy as there will always be a concern it could go lower...right down to $3.60 (1993 low) or $4.00 (2001 low).
<< <i>Thanks everyone for the thoughts. Still a lot of bullishness here right? I was tempted to buy some silver at 14ish but held off. I wish I could say the same things for some oil stocks I bought a week or two ago! >>
I wouldn't bet the farm on "bullish" sentiment around here....potentially misleading. I won't be underwater on my remaining bullion silver positions until around $6-$8. And no way I'd sell at those levels any ways. There are bulls around here who just won't sell. And then there are bears who just won't buy as there will always be a concern it could go lower...right down to $3.60 (1993 low) or $4.00 (2001 low).
Number of fingers on your hands has less effect than mining costs.
Silver is in a downtrend. Trends tend to continue further than fundamental
factors would merit. (Stock market in July 2008 - Mar 2009)
The price recovery will be very sharp.
Start nibbling now.
<< <i>One of the main things I have learned with the Gold/Silver debate the last 5 years is that it's completely unpredictable, and not to get involved if you can't ride out the downtrends and wait for the uptrends.
This grasshopper has learned a valuable lesson on when to sell, and the next time it cracks $28 an ounce I will sell half of my stash. The other half will be sold if it cracks $40. >>
Have lived through two silver manias, 30+ years apart.... the next one will most likely be the last one I'm alive for, and intend to unstack all my bullion in favor of a rare and compact numismatic collection
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i> 6-18 years?
The way the market seems to disfunction, it'd be the start of mine shut downs before the market cares. >>
Then how would you explain gold miners being in business where the overhang is 50 years of world supply? 2014 was the all time, record production. >>
I would start by noting a large portion of that is in central bank and commodity storage and wait to see what you have to say about what is on the consumption market vs stored
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> 6-18 years?
The way the market seems to disfunction, it'd be the start of mine shut downs before the market cares. >>
Then how would you explain gold miners being in business where the overhang is 50 years of world supply? 2014 was the all time, record production. >>
I would start by noting a large portion of that is in central bank and commodity storage and wait to see what you have to say about what is on the consumption market vs stored >>
I can't say what is currently on the market for sale as I would have to be omnipotent to know that. Some sources I've read have suggested that to buy gold in large qty (ie 10-20 tonnes or more) you have to be prepared to pay 20-30% premiums above current paper gold spot.
As far as who owns the gold and silver. The VAST majority of it is in the hands of the public. The central banks only have 32,000 tonnes of reported gold (approx 20% of world above ground supply). I'd figure that 2/3 of the world's gold is in Asia, with probably >50% in the hands of the people, not govts, not corporations/banks, or in special commodity storage. Old Warren Buffet spent several years to acquire 130 MILL oz of silver when it was easy to do (and doubled the price while doing so). That's less than a 2 month supply of world silver production....a pittance. But 130 MILL oz is a huge hoard these days. Recall when the US govt had a 3-5 BILL oz stock pile... now long gone. I stated 6-18 years of world silver only because no one really has a clue as to how much is left. It could be as little as a couple BILL oz or up to 25 BILL oz (about half of what has been mined in world history). So it seems absurd to post 6-18 yrs, I don't think anyone can do any better with accuracy. 6 years of silver mining is approx 5 BILL oz.
What's available on the "consumption" market is generally all the silver and gold available excepting what is in central bank storage....and even most of that can always be bought/leased for a price. In my mind, the majority of above ground metal is basically for sale....depending on market price. I consider central banks to be holding a pittance of world supply, and they are probably the tightest owners too as they have a need for that insurance/arbitrage. I suspect half the reported central bank gold holdings (16,000 tonnes) is already leased out or sold, making them even a smaller factor in a 165,000 tonne market. But we'll never know the true numbers as govt's guard their gold transactions tighter than nuclear weapons technology. The consumption market is always primed to transact based on what price is doing. I could see 5-15% of world supplies exchanging hands every year.
Well that prediction did not pan out very well. Still right around the 15 area. I still feel it can reach 10 again some day.
I'm trying to stack as much as possible at these spot prices. My average monthly purchase 100 ozs. and if the spot goes down to $10 I'll increase it to 200 ozs.
$10 is likely when the stock market blows up. Won't last long.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
We don't get to know what the price is going to do. All we get to see is what happens after the players are done with their moves.
Good money management and risk assessment is essential regardless of which casino you enter.
I knew it would happen.
Welcome back, fc.
I'm buying at about that price. Gotta hedge the bets, like a good bookie.
With the world economic picture and geopolitical situations, it will be more prudent to believe higher prices than major reductions.... Cheers, RickO
10-15 doesn't matter. Buy in this range.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Maybe. We may also see $100/oz t.
Crystal ball is unclear.
Nope. The FED's 180 on a "booming economy" tells us something bad (good for PMs) lies ahead
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
If it does hit $10, I expect premiums to melt to be sky high.
lol, fc has been waiting 3 years for the price to hit $10, and others have been waiting the same 3 years for the price to spike higher.
Isnt' there some type of options trading strategy for this? A straddle?
I knew it would happen.
I agree it will go lower next year it is as hard to time a low as a high but these levels are a very safe investment.