Repeat of 2008/2009.....?
bidask
Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭
I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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It's coming on 8 years since the last crisis started in 2007. 8 years since the stock market peaked in Oct 2007. Market cycles tend to rhyme. QE rescued most markets from a more serious decline that should have occurred from 2012-2014...instead we got a QE recovery market. There's always reversions to the mean following strong interventions.
Fewer of both kinds think it will
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There's a lot of potential for global instability, but I don't think US citizens and dollar based investors have too much to worry about.
<< <i>I agree with Baley.
There's a lot of potential for global instability, but I don't think US citizens and dollar based investors have too much to worry about. >>
Til the chickens come home. Much global instability is a result of the FED's long reach. The can has temporarily been kicked into a different neighborhood.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I agree with Baley.
There's a lot of potential for global instability, but I don't think US citizens and dollar based investors have too much to worry about. >>
Til the chickens come home. Much global instability is a result of the FED's long reach. The can has temporarily been kicked into a different neighborhood. >>
The FEDs long reach is responsible for China's regulatory and questionable accounting practices?....
Maybe I should hold them responsible for my crappy putting game.. I think Yellen is making me grip it to tightly.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I agree with Baley.
There's a lot of potential for global instability, but I don't think US citizens and dollar based investors have too much to worry about. >>
Til the chickens come home. Much global instability is a result of the FED's long reach. The can has temporarily been kicked into a different neighborhood. >>
The FEDs long reach is responsible for China's regulatory and questionable accounting practices?....
Maybe I should hold them responsible for my crappy putting game.. I think Yellen is making me grip it to tightly. >>
There is a difference between "much" and "all." However, even China's economy has suffered as a result of decreased American spending and unwillingness to assume more personal debt. As the world's largest economy, American monetary policy has far reaching global affects.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Fixed it for ya.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We will see what the GDP was for the second quarter soon. Right now, healthcare and financials are holding up the market.
Let's poll Europe, South America, Africa, Russia, Australia, Japan, etc. and see how "stable" things were for them. World stability is not based on rising US stock market, rising US dollar, rising UST Bonds, rising US debt,rising US military interventions, and collapsing commodity prices. Speaking of prices. They continue to rise every time I go to my "cost savings" club. In the past few visits I've had to permanently remove a couple more items from my shopping list and/or accept generic items that have replaced superior brand names.
I find it most interesting that one of my favorite indulgences, chocolate chip cookies, continue to rise despite falling/flat input prices of sugar, flour, butter, and labor/benefits....some at 6 year lows. Cocoa has been rising the past few months but's it's also no higher than its median price from 2008-2011. And that's only one ingredient, a small one too. Most chocolate chip brands have minimal cocoa in them and are diluted with cheap sugar and fillers. Butter has been flat. I have to assume that rising business taxes, middleman profits, labor, medical and liability insurance, etc. are wiping out any advantages of falling material prices. They are now the highest they've ever been. What happened to deflation? Deflatechip?
My favorite bakery recently put on a 17% price hike. I've had to X those off my list permanently. Those guys have been slowly removing the quality ingredients since they started back around 2000. No big loss. My backup choice at the local Big Y supermarket has jacked prices twice in the past 3 months...a net 23% rise. I no longer buy those. If I do buy CC cookies, it's now cheap brand loaded with chemicals and preservatives....I try to avoid them. I had a talk with my local BJ's rep to let them know that they've been systematically removing items that I originally came there for in 2009. This time it was the organic unsweetened soy milk....gone. Healthy, low salt tomato sauce, gone. If they do anything with their bulk almond, blueberry, and humus pricing/availability, there won't be any reason for me to remain a customer. And those items will be removed from my diet. Substitutional effects stink. The BLS CPI will chalk up my departure in these areas as falling prices and falling demand....lol. I guess it's not a repeat of 2008-2009 because my C.C. cookies keep heading up. Even heard one analyst state yesterday that you could track gold by the price of cocoa. Well, I'd bet that guy has not looked at a Cocoa chart in the past 2 years. Cocoa prices have just tagged their 4 year highs. If those pull back will CCC prices fall too? Not likely.
I will admit that gas and ice cream are cheap right now. Eggs are up because of bird disease. Enjoy it while you can as 2016 will be different. Filled the heating oil tank yesterday at $2.04/gall, the lowest I can recall in years...oil hits $46/47/gall. I'm just hoping I can get to top off one more time by November at those levels. I looked back to my last order/delivery on March 17-18th, and pretty much hit the cycle low.
<< <i>Right now, healthcare and financials are holding up the market. >>
More important they are holding up the consumer, literally.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Roadrunner, you comparing today to 2008? Or 2001, or 1973, or 1954, or 1944, or 1933, or 1917.
Did you know that 3% of Earth's human population died during WW2. Imagine 250 million people killed today. And you call today unstable?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear