<< <i>First off no one is talking about bullion dealers. I'm talking about individual stackers who don't have all the advantages of being an Apmex.
And I was stating that one could make 30 percent on buying paper silver before breaking even buying and selling in quantity with Apmex.
But if you are looking for a PM stock tip, I posted it like a year ago and even recently. GLL. It makes that much more sense if you have at physical gild. I've easily cleared 40 percent trading it the past year. Now if only SDS would follow. >>
I'm not looking for a stock tip. I want your "easy" paper trade in silver... in the present. Not some pie in the sky GLL trade from who knows how long ago. Show us how you made that 40% trading. Pick a silver trade in the here and now to show how easy it is to do.....and so much better than buying bullion with the associated premiums. I don't care if you pick a silver long or short a year from now. Just pick it and prove your mettle. I don't claim to be able to foresee bullion prices or make 40% per year on them. You know silver is overpriced and going down further so pick a silver short vehicle for a time in the future. Should be no harder than picking GLL.
This discussion is about silver, not gold, not SDS. Glad that you "easily" cleared 40% this year in one of the most difficult trading environments of the past several years. Most professionals are lucky to be up at all. We have over 50 forum members in that 2015 investment pool and only 3 of them are >40%. And those guys are swinging for the fences, not even with real money. Fwiw, I would never put a penny in a gold or silver bullion ETF, leveraged or not. And GLL looks like a turd to me. It's only decent performance in a 4 year bear market is from Oct 2012-June 2013. Other than that period it has been a whipsawing wild man with plenty of decay. It's volume is extremely low which means somewhat "illiquid" to me. Even in a gold bear market GLL's effective performance the past 4 years is as if gold were still >$1400 today. GLL has whipsawed sideways for the past 2 years despite gold trending down. It doesn't matter if you picked it 1 or 2 years ago. At some point it would have kicked you off, especially with the decay. A bucking bronc good for at least 1-2 months at a time for 30% gains if you have perfect timing....and the steeliest of aggressive traders. And those rises were immediately followed by 25-30% losses. What time period(s) did you own GLL in the past 2 years?
A relatively low buy price just means they really don't want to buy much at the moment. You have to twist their arm a bit.
If I'm really busy I won't outright turn new work away but I will put a high bid in if forced to . If for some reason someone wants to overpay well I'll oblige
<< <i>A relatively low buy price just means they really don't want to buy much at the moment. You have to twist their arm a bit.
If I'm really busy I won't outright turn new work away but I will put a high bid in if forced to . If for some reason someone wants to overpay well I'll oblige >>
The only way to do it bud, and... Only in America ... Lol...
<< <i>China people pay spot, people in Turkey, UAE pay spot, India spot, for silver in India under spot... >>
Darn. Then all those Asian dealers and housewives should be arbitraging and selling to Western customers. They can obviously cut out the US and European bullion dealers who are currently "gouging" on premium silver. And there's never a reason for US bullion dealers to be out of product when they can pick up the phone and get a few million ounces of silver at spot from most anywhere in China or India. The metal could be on a plane in 24 hrs and to them in 48 hrs. Never again do they have to stock inventory knowing the Asians are there at spot all the time. If the largest group of metal holders in the world (China and India) are all spot players it would seem the markets would always be stuck in the mud. Not sure how they rose from 2001-2011 despite that.
Surprised that more of these US dealers aren't going bankrupt with Asian sources to cut them out. I guess this means that the world's gold and silver miners must sell their metal for way under spot....to leave enough room so everyone but Westerners can buy at or under spot too. No wonder the miners are sucking so badly the past few years....they can't even manage to sell their output at a decent price. I sure wish the US coin dealers would learn to sell their rare coins at well under wholesale.....so all of us could buy under wholesale. Coin prices might not rise again if everyone was a wholesaler.
<< <i> As for this being about silver, there is a very strong correlation between the two metals........as for a call, I repeat my expectation that metals are headed lower. There are numerous ways to play that for silver depending on how much leverage and risk tolerance oñe has. That's for eàch investor to decidee if that wasn't already obvious. >>
Gold and silver are not even close to perfectly correlated, especially in the past 2 years. Look at a gold to silver chart. Look at the past couple of months....or even the past week. Metals "headed lower" is no trade. And of little use to anyone here. They could go higher before they head lower. So are you putting on your short silver and gold trades now or waiting? Still looking for a trade from you in "anything" PM related. I want to see you outplay any simple fool who is currently holding bullion.
So is silver headed to new lows in August? September? Next year? I'll state for the record that silver is "headed higher." And like you I provide no time frame. Will I be correct? Did I help anyone? Can I trade successfully off that?
I'm clueless about direction from here and freely/honestly admit it. Many others are too.
Since you're so sure, tell us what the direction is for next week or sometime next month. I'll give you until NY opens in the morning as long as silver stays within $14.49-$14.99 by then. Show us how you can out trade J6P buying bullion from his B&M. If you fail to make a selection, then it will be obvious you're all bluff and have no clue about silver "headed lower."
Here's the GSR chart for the past 9 months. Tell us how you successfully played the tight gold to silver correlation.
Well, If I gotta have me some ASEs there and then, I'll pay any price! I gotta buy them there and then I tell ya, and they're worth whatever i gotta give to get 'em!
<< <i>Once again, no one needs to know with anywhere near that level of exactness to make money on the position. Geez its honestly like talking to a child here. In the past year you'd have made over 50% buying and holding the silver double inverse etf. It didn't matter whether you knew silver was going to tank in Nov or spike in Jan. Though you could have made that much more if you played that volatility, assuming you have any conviction in your beliefs, right or wrong. Certainly not a "perfect" correlation but one would have made almost 40% buying and holding gll for the past one year. Kapeesh? >>
The point is that you didn't hold GLL for the last year....or any leveraged silver bear ETF. No way in heck. You could never have hung on for the 3 sharp dips on the first rally. And even if you did you would have lost money on the next dip and bailed out at some point as it crashed all the way back to break even 6 months later. Kapeesh? The truth is you can't find me one trader in the world that held a leveraged ETF gold short for that one year period (ie GLL, DGLD, DZZ, DSLV, etc.). You're a fool to even think anyone here would buy your story. Kapeesh? I'm still waiting for your "simple" money-making, paper silver trade. Kapeesh? It's so simple isn't it. "One could have made" 40% trading leveraged/decaying ETF's on a chart long after it's drawn.....this is too funny. Please outline your current DSLV or AGQ trade that even a 5th grader could make money on. Kapeesh? We're all waiting. It's a little harder when the chart is not yet drawn for you.....lol.
GLL chart in all it's whip saw glory....this is "the" trade you recommended last year as you say. You'd have never held on through any of the rallies, never mind the sharp dips.
<< <i>so what he is saying RR, is he cant...lol... just another bs R teest... >>
Oh no. He already made it quite clear that silver is headed down. So there's a long term hold, money making AGQ trade that even a 5th grader can make. I just want to know what time frame that trade will be on. It was so easy from July 2014-July 2015. So why not from July 2015-July 2016? The only thing that made it "harder" was losing everything you made by Jan 2015. But let's not worry about that in this next trade. Baseball, is now in the on-deck circle. His fans await.
<< <i>I can state unequivocally that I've held at least around 250 shares most of that time. I have as little as I've ever had right now and I hold 200, maybe 190.
I had much more when it was in the the 80s though I systematically sold much of that excess making usually area bucks on the sale. I have no idea why anyone would not believe such a simple modest story like this. I haven't even made a measly $10k on this not to mention the $5k or so I lost in the physical.
If you want to go off line and bet 10 ounfces of gold or 50, Ill cough up the statements and trades >>
So you expect us to believe you held GLL from July 2014 to January 2015 and saw a >30% profit go to zero? It's certainly not the norm of most GLL or AGQ traders who typically are in and out every few days or weeks, maybe 1-2 months at the most.
If the 200 min shares you say you always held is still being held, a year later, then that seems incredible to me. You were up 30% the first time around and gave it all back. Now you're up 30% again after 12 months, exactly repeating the last scenario and you're letting that ride in the hopes it goes a lot higher (following a potential 6 month gold intermediate cycle decline having time out)? No need to show me any of your statements. You're GLL trading of the past 12 months clearly shows you don't know direction or you'd have done it much differently. All I can say is good luck with the current trade and hope you don't run it all the way back to zero again because you're convinced "gold is headed lower."
<< <i>Not any more or less clear than you've made that silver is headed up. >>
You totally misread what I wrote, as usual. I've already admitted to not knowing direction, especially right here and now. I'm not claiming anything about a "sure fire" silver short trade as you are. My belief that silver is eventually headed up (pick your month and year...lol) is not even a prediction that one could trade off. But silver is eventually headed up, and it's probably eventually headed down to....with no idea of what levels those will occur at. I just want to know where the "sure 40%" is in silver that you speak of. I'm not seeing it yet. So please help us less fortunate. Are you playing dated SLV short options into 2016 or 2017? Or just holding AGQ until the cows come home?
So in other words you're all talk about things you have no idea about.
You embarrassed yourself enough with the GLL. Don't compound things. Each time you open your mouth your foot ends up in it.
I'm blown away by this novel GLL (2X inverse gold ETF) trading technique that Baseball has employed for the past year. There's just nothing else than can be said.
Don't forget that you still owe us a short paper silver ETF trade by morning.
Silver is headed lower .....your quote....not mine. If you want to take that back, then go ahead. Until then..........
Pick the trade and time frame. No hiatus to bail you out. You're on the hook and the clock is running. I accept your GLL statements. There is someone on the planet that held a leveraged bear PM ETF for an entire year and gave it all back. While it's crazy that you held through a 100% pull back, it is what it is.
1. Silver is headed lower. Essentially a sure thing as you described.
2. One can trade Millions easily with highly efficient paper silver ETF's. Who would even do this unless they consistently made money at it? And you already made an easy +40% in 2015. +35% or more in the last year on PMs.
1 + 2 = 3.
3. Give me your sure-fire silver trade....especially since silver "IS" headed lower.
What, you were willing to hold GLL for a year "knowing gold was headed lower? And now you won't do that for AGQ knowing silver is headed lower??? I don't get it. You're not even consistent among your own statements. Off for the night. 7 hours to the NY open.
I'm clueless about direction from here and freely/honestly admit it. Many others are too.
Count me in. The best move, imo - is to manage your own position. The Fed does the rest.
Well, If I gotta have me some ASEs there and then, I'll pay any price! I gotta buy them there and then I tell ya, and they're worth whatever i gotta give to get 'em!
Can't have too many ASEs
Nice to see your new trading strategy, Baley. But I do have to disagree with your last statement. It really IS possible to have too many ASEs. Really, it is possible.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>What, you were willing to hold GLL for a year "knowing gold was headed lower?" And now you won't do that for AGQ knowing silver is headed lower??? I don't get it. You're not even consistent among your own statements. Off for the night. 7 hours to the NY open. >>
Seriously, what's with the constant quote marks around things I've never said? Then again all you have to desperately cling to is your constant and confused gibberish and fabrication of the " facts". Good night and we'll pick this up again sooner or later. >>
"As for a call, I repeat my expectation that metals are headed lower."
So you don't remember this quote a few posts above? I don't think I really misquoted you or changed your intent one bit. But if that offends you, substitute "my expectations are" in place of "knowing." And my sincerest apologies.
<< <i>As the silver price falls, the percentage premium paid for Silver Eagles rises. Right now the premium is over 24% for monster boxes, compared to around 9% for an equivalent number of generic rounds. If silver keeps declining this spread will increase. At some point I think it will no longer make financial sense to stack silver eagles, and it might even become profitable to trade them for a larger stash of silver rounds.
Thoughts? >>
If silver continues to fall and demand for generic silver increases, don't you think that premiums for it will increase too? All being equal people will still prefer ASEs. I doubt the Mint cares if sales drop 10%.
In other words you have no idea what you're talking about. How could you. Let me make it simpler for you, lets bet on a hiatus from the forum for one year since you're so convinced about things you couldn't possibly know. Well you're nothing in if not supremely arrogant. You can take pride in that. >>
Lets not make these sorts of bets. The crowd is getting thin in here as it is. I like to hear both of your points of view even if I don't agree with either.
<< <i>If silver continues to fall and demand for generic silver increases, don't you think that premiums for it will increase too? All being equal people will still prefer ASEs. I doubt the Mint cares if sales drop 10%. >>
The mint doesn't have to worry about a 10% drop in sales quite yet. July was within 1,000 coins sold in January, the all time best month. And July did this with the mint off line for approx 2 weeks. They also didn't report the sales for the last Friday of the month in their totals (typically around 220,000 coins per day). Any way you cut it July was a monster month for ASE sales. And even the 1 oz AGE's sold in July represented 72.8% of what sold from Jan-June 2015......or 34% of the total sold in 2014. January is always a big month. But July and August are typically the weakest sales month of the year.....not in 2015.
August is only 2 days old and already over 1 MILL ASE's are sold. Jan and July did 5.5 MILL. As usual, low metal prices tend to produce big sales figures.
Currently at 20% over spot for a monster box, and a 10.1% buy-sell spread. Generic rounds in 500 Qty @ 9.5% over spot and a 7.8% spread.
Part of the differential between ASEs and generic rounds is the Mint's $2.00 premium. As the price of silver drops, this $2.00 becomes a larger percentage. Therefore, all other things being equal, the lower silver goes - the worse is the deal on ASEs.
Even so, ASEs at 20% over spot or generic 1 oz silver rounds at 9.5% over spot tells me something else. The supply is tight.
Looking at the spreads, I see more volatility than usual. I would expect a normal buy-sell spread to be 5% or so on 1 oz. silver, less in larger quantities.
Something may be going on in the market behind the scenes, but whatever is going on, the market is talking.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
<< <i>First off no one is talking about bullion dealers. I'm talking about individual stackers who don't have all the advantages of being an Apmex.
And I was stating that one could make 30 percent on buying paper silver before breaking even buying and selling in quantity with Apmex.
But if you are looking for a PM stock tip, I posted it like a year ago and even recently. GLL. It makes that much more sense if you have at physical gild. I've easily cleared 40 percent trading it the past year. Now if only SDS would follow. >>
I'm not looking for a stock tip. I want your "easy" paper trade in silver... in the present. Not some pie in the sky GLL trade from who knows how long ago. Show us how you made that 40% trading. Pick a silver trade in the here and now to show how easy it is to do.....and so much better than buying bullion with the associated premiums. I don't care if you pick a silver long or short a year from now. Just pick it and prove your mettle. I don't claim to be able to foresee bullion prices or make 40% per year on them. You know silver is overpriced and going down further so pick a silver short vehicle for a time in the future. Should be no harder than picking GLL.
This discussion is about silver, not gold, not SDS. Glad that you "easily" cleared 40% this year in one of the most difficult trading environments of the past several years. Most professionals are lucky to be up at all. We have over 50 forum members in that 2015 investment pool and only 3 of them are >40%. And those guys are swinging for the fences, not even with real money. Fwiw, I would never put a penny in a gold or silver bullion ETF, leveraged or not. And GLL looks like a turd to me. It's only decent performance in a 4 year bear market is from Oct 2012-June 2013. Other than that period it has been a whipsawing wild man with plenty of decay. It's volume is extremely low which means somewhat "illiquid" to me. Even in a gold bear market GLL's effective performance the past 4 years is as if gold were still >$1400 today. GLL has whipsawed sideways for the past 2 years despite gold trending down. It doesn't matter if you picked it 1 or 2 years ago. At some point it would have kicked you off, especially with the decay. A bucking bronc good for at least 1-2 months at a time for 30% gains if you have perfect timing....and the steeliest of aggressive traders. And those rises were immediately followed by 25-30% losses. What time period(s) did you own GLL in the past 2 years?
<< <i>Lol, they sell higher while spot goes lower, only in America... >>
If you sell too low and run out of stock too fast, it would suck to have sales, but nothing to sell.
A relatively low buy price just means they really don't want to buy much at the moment. You have to twist their arm a bit.
If I'm really busy I won't outright turn new work away but I will put a high bid in if forced to . If for some reason someone wants to overpay well I'll oblige
<< <i>A relatively low buy price just means they really don't want to buy much at the moment. You have to twist their arm a bit.
If I'm really busy I won't outright turn new work away but I will put a high bid in if forced to . If for some reason someone wants to overpay well I'll oblige
The only way to do it bud, and... Only in America ... Lol...
<< <i>China people pay spot, people in Turkey, UAE pay spot, India spot, for silver in India under spot... >>
Darn. Then all those Asian dealers and housewives should be arbitraging and selling to Western customers. They can obviously cut out the US and European bullion dealers who are currently "gouging" on premium silver. And there's never a reason for US bullion dealers to be out of product when they can pick up the phone and get a few million ounces of silver at spot from most anywhere in China or India. The metal could be on a plane in 24 hrs and to them in 48 hrs. Never again do they have to stock inventory knowing the Asians are there at spot all the time. If the largest group of metal holders in the world (China and India) are all spot players it would seem the markets would always be stuck in the mud. Not sure how they rose from 2001-2011 despite that.
Surprised that more of these US dealers aren't going bankrupt with Asian sources to cut them out. I guess this means that the world's gold and silver miners must sell their metal for way under spot....to leave enough room so everyone but Westerners can buy at or under spot too. No wonder the miners are sucking so badly the past few years....they can't even manage to sell their output at a decent price. I sure wish the US coin dealers would learn to sell their rare coins at well under wholesale.....so all of us could buy under wholesale. Coin prices might not rise again if everyone was a wholesaler.
<< <i> As for this being about silver, there is a very strong correlation between the two metals........as for a call, I repeat my expectation that metals are headed lower. There are numerous ways to play that for silver depending on how much leverage and risk tolerance oñe has. That's for eàch investor to decidee if that wasn't already obvious. >>
Gold and silver are not even close to perfectly correlated, especially in the past 2 years. Look at a gold to silver chart. Look at the past couple of months....or even the past week. Metals "headed lower" is no trade. And of little use to anyone here. They could go higher before they head lower. So are you putting on your short silver and gold trades now or waiting? Still looking for a trade from you in "anything" PM related. I want to see you outplay any simple fool who is currently holding bullion.
So is silver headed to new lows in August? September? Next year? I'll state for the record that silver is "headed higher." And like you I provide no time frame. Will I be correct? Did I help anyone? Can I trade successfully off that?
Since you're so sure, tell us what the direction is for next week or sometime next month. I'll give you until NY opens in the morning as long as silver stays within $14.49-$14.99 by then. Show us how you can out trade J6P buying bullion from his B&M. If you fail to make a selection, then it will be obvious you're all bluff and have no clue about silver "headed lower."
Here's the GSR chart for the past 9 months. Tell us how you successfully played the tight gold to silver correlation.
GSR Nov-July
Can't have too many ASEs
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Once again, no one needs to know with anywhere near that level of exactness to make money on the position. Geez its honestly like talking to a child here. In the past year you'd have made over 50% buying and holding the silver double inverse etf. It didn't matter whether you knew silver was going to tank in Nov or spike in Jan. Though you could have made that much more if you played that volatility, assuming you have any conviction in your beliefs, right or wrong. Certainly not a "perfect" correlation but one would have made almost 40% buying and holding gll for the past one year. Kapeesh? >>
The point is that you didn't hold GLL for the last year....or any leveraged silver bear ETF. No way in heck. You could never have hung on for the 3 sharp dips on the first rally. And even if you did you would have lost money on the next dip and bailed out at some point as it crashed all the way back to break even 6 months later. Kapeesh? The truth is you can't find me one trader in the world that held a leveraged ETF gold short for that one year period (ie GLL, DGLD, DZZ, DSLV, etc.). You're a fool to even think anyone here would buy your story. Kapeesh? I'm still waiting for your "simple" money-making, paper silver trade. Kapeesh? It's so simple isn't it. "One could have made" 40% trading leveraged/decaying ETF's on a chart long after it's drawn.....this is too funny. Please outline your current DSLV or AGQ trade that even a 5th grader could make money on. Kapeesh? We're all waiting. It's a little harder when the chart is not yet drawn for you.....lol.
GLL chart in all it's whip saw glory....this is "the" trade you recommended last year as you say. You'd have never held on through any of the rallies, never mind the sharp dips.
<< <i>so what he is saying RR, is he cant...lol... just another bs R teest... >>
Oh no. He already made it quite clear that silver is headed down. So there's a long term hold, money making AGQ trade that even a 5th grader can make. I just want to know what time frame that trade will be on. It was so easy from July 2014-July 2015. So why not from July 2015-July 2016? The only thing that made it "harder" was losing everything you made by Jan 2015. But let's not worry about that in this next trade. Baseball, is now in the on-deck circle. His fans await.
<< <i>I can state unequivocally that I've held at least around 250 shares most of that time. I have as little as I've ever had right now and I hold 200, maybe 190.
I had much more when it was in the the 80s though I systematically sold much of that excess making usually area bucks on the sale. I have no idea why anyone would not believe such a simple modest story like this. I haven't even made a measly $10k on this not to mention the $5k or so I lost in the physical.
If you want to go off line and bet 10 ounfces of gold or 50, Ill cough up the statements and trades >>
So you expect us to believe you held GLL from July 2014 to January 2015 and saw a >30% profit go to zero? It's certainly not the norm of most GLL or AGQ traders who typically are in and out every few days or weeks, maybe 1-2 months at the most.
If the 200 min shares you say you always held is still being held, a year later, then that seems incredible to me. You were up 30% the first time around and gave it all back. Now you're up 30% again after 12 months, exactly repeating the last scenario and you're letting that ride in the hopes it goes a lot higher (following a potential 6 month gold intermediate cycle decline having time out)? No need to show me any of your statements. You're GLL trading of the past 12 months clearly shows you don't know direction or you'd have done it much differently. All I can say is good luck with the current trade and hope you don't run it all the way back to zero again because you're convinced "gold is headed lower."
<< <i>Not any more or less clear than you've made that silver is headed up. >>
You totally misread what I wrote, as usual. I've already admitted to not knowing direction, especially right here and now. I'm not claiming anything about a "sure fire" silver short trade as you are. My belief that silver is eventually headed up (pick your month and year...lol) is not even a prediction that one could trade off. But silver is eventually headed up, and it's probably eventually headed down to....with no idea of what levels those will occur at. I just want to know where the "sure 40%" is in silver that you speak of. I'm not seeing it yet. So please help us less fortunate. Are you playing dated SLV short options into 2016 or 2017? Or just holding AGQ until the cows come home?
So in other words you're all talk about things you have no idea about.
You embarrassed yourself enough with the GLL. Don't compound things. Each time you open your mouth your foot ends up in it.
Don't forget that you still owe us a short paper silver ETF trade by morning.
Pick the trade and time frame. No hiatus to bail you out. You're on the hook and the clock is running. I accept your GLL statements. There is someone on the planet that held a leveraged bear PM ETF for an entire year and gave it all back. While it's crazy that you held through a 100% pull back, it is what it is.
2. One can trade Millions easily with highly efficient paper silver ETF's. Who would even do this unless they consistently made money at it? And you already made an easy +40% in 2015. +35% or more in the last year on PMs.
1 + 2 = 3.
3. Give me your sure-fire silver trade....especially since silver "IS" headed lower.
Count me in. The best move, imo - is to manage your own position. The Fed does the rest.
Well, If I gotta have me some ASEs there and then, I'll pay any price! I gotta buy them there and then I tell ya, and they're worth whatever i gotta give to get 'em!
Can't have too many ASEs
Nice to see your new trading strategy, Baley. But I do have to disagree with your last statement. It really IS possible to have too many ASEs. Really, it is possible.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>What, you were willing to hold GLL for a year "knowing gold was headed lower?" And now you won't do that for AGQ knowing silver is headed lower??? I don't get it. You're not even consistent among your own statements. Off for the night. 7 hours to the NY open. >>
Seriously, what's with the constant quote marks around things I've never said? Then again all you have to desperately cling to is your constant and confused gibberish and fabrication of the " facts". Good night and we'll pick this up again sooner or later. >>
"As for a call, I repeat my expectation that metals are headed lower."
So you don't remember this quote a few posts above? I don't think I really misquoted you or changed your intent one bit. But if that offends you, substitute "my expectations are" in place of "knowing." And my sincerest apologies.
<< <i>As the silver price falls, the percentage premium paid for Silver Eagles rises. Right now the premium is over 24% for monster boxes, compared to around 9% for an equivalent number of generic rounds. If silver keeps declining this spread will increase. At some point I think it will no longer make financial sense to stack silver eagles, and it might even become profitable to trade them for a larger stash of silver rounds.
Thoughts? >>
If silver continues to fall and demand for generic silver increases, don't you think that premiums for it will increase too? All being equal people will still prefer ASEs. I doubt the Mint cares if sales drop 10%.
<< <i>
In other words you have no idea what you're talking about. How could you. Let me make it simpler for you, lets bet on a hiatus from the forum for one year since you're so convinced about things you couldn't possibly know. Well you're nothing in if not supremely arrogant. You can take pride in that. >>
Lets not make these sorts of bets. The crowd is getting thin in here as it is. I like to hear both of your points of view even if I don't agree with either.
<< <i>If silver continues to fall and demand for generic silver increases, don't you think that premiums for it will increase too? All being equal people will still prefer ASEs. I doubt the Mint cares if sales drop 10%. >>
The mint doesn't have to worry about a 10% drop in sales quite yet. July was within 1,000 coins sold in January, the all time best month. And July did this with the mint off line for approx 2 weeks. They also didn't report the sales for the last Friday of the month in their totals (typically around 220,000 coins per day). Any way you cut it July was a monster month for ASE sales. And even the 1 oz AGE's sold in July represented 72.8% of what sold from Jan-June 2015......or 34% of the total sold in 2014. January is always a big month. But July and August are typically the weakest sales month of the year.....not in 2015.
August is only 2 days old and already over 1 MILL ASE's are sold. Jan and July did 5.5 MILL. As usual, low metal prices tend to produce big sales figures.
US Mint figures
Part of the differential between ASEs and generic rounds is the Mint's $2.00 premium. As the price of silver drops, this $2.00 becomes a larger percentage. Therefore, all other things being equal, the lower silver goes - the worse is the deal on ASEs.
Even so, ASEs at 20% over spot or generic 1 oz silver rounds at 9.5% over spot tells me something else. The supply is tight.
Looking at the spreads, I see more volatility than usual. I would expect a normal buy-sell spread to be 5% or so on 1 oz. silver, less in larger quantities.
Something may be going on in the market behind the scenes, but whatever is going on, the market is talking.
I knew it would happen.