<< <i>......Heck, they've been "pulling up the truck" for 3 years now. >>
Starting to look like this thread was nailing the PM summer bottom.....and many posting on the exact day (July 23rd). Sentiment can be a powerful tool. Baseball's gold is a "pet rock" taken from the WSJ was the icing on the contrarian "Jason Zweig" cake. The guy that wrote that article, was the same guy who recommended gold and miners back in the $1800-$1900/oz range. I bet Baseball didn't know that at the time....lol. This guy was the proverbial broken clock.
Sept 17, 2011: Growing numbers of investing experts have been declaring that gold is a bubble: an insanely overvalued asset whose price is bound to burst.
There is no basis for that opinion. And understanding why can help point an investor toward clearer thinking about frenzied markets. Even as gold has shot up past $1,800, gold-mining stocks have gone basically nowhere. And as Jason Zweig explains on The News Hub, unless gold goes way down, mining stocks look pretty cheap. Sure, gold seems expensive. At its recent price of $1,813 an ounce, gold is off only slightly from the record high of $1,912 touched on Sept. 6 (unadjusted for inflation). Gold is up more than 40% over the past year, largely on fears that paper currencies like the dollar won't retain their value. But that doesn't mean it is overvalued. .....his tune has sure changed.
<< <i>Starting to look like this thread was nailing the PM summer bottom.....and many posting on the exact day (July 23rd). >>
Gut says bottom is not yet in. Commodities are not near a rebound. Keep your eye on oil.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Starting to look like this thread was nailing the PM summer bottom.....and many posting on the exact day (July 23rd). >>
Gut says bottom is not yet in. Commodities are not near a rebound. Keep your eye on oil. >>
I'm not looking past this summer for now. July 23rd could have been the summer PM bottom. Sort of overdue for a decent bounce. If a 5th wave down to a lower low is still out there, so be it. During the 2008 crash gold, silver, plat, sugar and the AUD/USD bottomed first in October 2008. The CAD came a week or two later. Copper followed 6 weeks later in early December. Oil came about 3 months later in mid-January 2009. The USDX bottomed in March 2009 after the SM. Nothing says it has to happen that way this time.
I'm not counting on identical bottoming periods for commodities, energy, and PM's. For my money I'm keeping my eye on 3 things besides PM's and commodity prices (AUD/USD, USD/CAD, 10yr/2yr treasury yield ratio (or also real interest rates). Oil was late to the bottoming party in 2008-2009....lagging gold by 12 weeks. I suspect the individual commodity bottoms will come depending on how and when JPM alters their recent $4 TRILL "all-in" bets in otc commodity derivatives. You can bet they went heavy short on oil. And the same for Citi/JPM/GS/MS otc derivatives in gold and silver....Citi having gone "all-in" on silver.
The "boom" on July 19th that took gold down under $1130 was a high volume, gap-down in thin, overseas trading hours. That gap is very large ($1133-$1134). During this bear market the dozen or so gaps of that size have almost always filled within a few hours to a few weeks. Only 2-3 have made it to 8-10 weeks. The longest lived one was 23 weeks (the mid-August 2014 gap-down at $1304). The $1133 level will be retested in time.
<< <i>I'm not counting on identical bottoming periods for commodities, energy, and PM's. >>
a review of the post 2008 commodity recoveries is probably a good indicator of sequence of rebounds.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Unboom? Looking better that the extreme bearish negative sentiment on July 19/20th and 23rd coincides with a potential summer bottom. 4th time at $1106 is a charm.
<< <i>This next run is another opportunity to sell... >>
Ya think it will hit $1280? >>
You are kidding right???
I know nobody knows Where it comes and where it goes I know it's everybody sin You got to lose to know how to win Half my life Is books, written pages Live and learn from fools and From sages You know it's true, oh All these feelings come back to you Sing with me, sing for the years Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears Sing with me, just for today Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear Sing with me, just for today Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away Dream on Dream on Dream on… Dream until your dreams come true...
<< <i>This next run is another opportunity to sell... >>
Ya think it will hit $1280? >>
You are kidding right???
I know nobody knows Where it comes and where it goes I know it's everybody sin You got to lose to know how to win Half my life Is books, written pages Live and learn from fools and From sages You know it's true, oh All these feelings come back to you Sing with me, sing for the years Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears Sing with me, just for today Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear Sing with me, just for today Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away Dream on Dream on Dream on… Dream until your dreams come true... >>
It cracked $1300 in late January so not unrealistic to hope it might get to $1280.
<< <i>.....Don't be fooled, covering a short isn't demand... >>
Then logically, buying a short contract in the first place isn't a lack of demand either (ie purchasing a long and then selling it). Can't have it both ways.
Regardless there's 209,000 contracts in gold futures shorts held by the specs that will eventually have to be partially unwound during the current intermediate cycle. Figure approx 125,000 of them to be covered to get back to the typical positioning seen at intermediate cycle highs (75K). That's 12,500,000 ounces or approx 390 tonnes of paper gold/long contracts. You don't have to call it real demand. But it represents the purchase of 100 oz contracts. Seems like buying to me....or just another one of those exceptions of market dynamics? No doubt that $1280 gets hit sometime in the future. Gold experienced an $847 decline, it should have no problem recapturing $325 even in an eventual bear market rally. It left behind a pile of gaps in the $1313-$1413 range. I suspect all of these will get filled in the next 1-3 years. Even if gold should still continue down to $890....it will make it back to $1280.
Who knows? The original post was titled gold just fell 40 bucks. Now that it's risen $43 from the recent lows, there's no mention of it.
The entire original drop from $1133 is probably going to get retraced. Major instantaneous moves that happen outside the normal NY trading hours tend to get retraced so NY can put their stamp of approval on them (ie profit from them in both directions). When prices are back to $1133 that will be the official "NY approval" of the first drop...lol.
Edited to add: Silver is back to July 14th levels or when gold was $1155.
The "unboom" continues. Gold is actually lagging silver and the miners in retracing the July smack down.
Dow "death cross" this week.....first time in 4 years. Dollar dumping while the rock currencies (and commodities) are trying to come out of their 5 year holes. More boost for PMs.
Since the vast majority of the media will report it as such, J6P will regard it as that. And it's the first cross over of the 50/200 in 4 years. It really doesn't matter to most that the 200 dma has a nearly imperceptible up-slope to it after a 6 year rally. But those expanded wedges just keep growing wider and wider. Remember I first mentioned the biggest wedge that starts back in 1998?
Let's just call it a "bad for your health" cross for now. They often mark intermediate lows too. GDX had a couple of these 50/200 crosses in the past 5 years, and half the time the crosses marked a low or a high.
It's been a great bull market for stocks, been ringing the register all year, now it looks like the stocks are back to where they were a few months ago?
who knows what the future brings, I personally hope gold rallies like crazy, have built larger position and would not mind profitably selling a few older purchases I'm not a fond of anymore
But they have since gone back to flat on the 200 dma. I don't like that wedging action in the 2nd half of 2014. It's pointing down to the 7000 range. Wedge-away.
<< <i>a few of my customers are using this rise to get out
May go a little higher yet, before it comes back down >>
If these customers are getting out with a $30-$40 rise in gold, they couldn't have been very strong hands to begin with. Hopefully, none of them hung on from $1900-$1080, and are just now deciding to get out on a 3-4% bounce. I'd be looking at $1170 for a first bounce target....possibly up to $1205-1210 as a 2nd target. However, can't even entertain those thoughts until the forced break down point at $1134 is recovered.
<< <i>all i want to know, maybe Stan or derryb can tell us, is who exactly let the price of gold rise this past week or so...
i sure hope they know what they are doing... >>
Doesn't matter. What does matter is seeing it coming. To do that one must focus on the market and not on the forum members. lol
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>all i want to know, maybe Stan or derryb can tell us, is who exactly let the price of gold rise this past week or so... >>
The same guys who took it down from $1134 to $1087 in under 1 minute during "normally light" overseas trading hours on Sunday night, July 19th. Now they get to make the some money all over again reversing price right back up again. Nice work if you can swing it and not even get a phone call from the CFTC.
If Sponge Bob and Crew will improve your trading and analysis....then by all means go for it. Must be a new off shoot in the "fish market - dynamics" area I haven't heard about.
Gold just fell "up" $92. That gap pull from $1133-$1134 (ie bogus break down) finally drew gold back up. The next higher gap was at $1170. And that only missed filling by $2 last week. Resistance for now. Over a dozen old spot gold gaps in the $1205-$1295 range, several of them rather large. Should be interesting if they come back into play in 2015.
If there's no death cross tonight.....we sure as heck will have one tomorrow.
Who was saying this past week nice trade on holding the S&P 500? Might be more prudent to wait until the end of this week before confirming congratulations. And who knows what that will be in 6, 12, 24 months from now. Commodities have already been at this "party" for 4 years. Stocks just walked into the room.
Comments
<< <i>......Heck, they've been "pulling up the truck" for 3 years now.
Starting to look like this thread was nailing the PM summer bottom.....and many posting on the exact day (July 23rd). Sentiment can be a powerful tool. Baseball's gold is a "pet rock" taken from the WSJ was the icing on the contrarian "Jason Zweig" cake. The guy that wrote that article, was the same guy who recommended gold and miners back in the $1800-$1900/oz range. I bet Baseball didn't know that at the time....lol. This guy was the proverbial broken clock.
This cycle analyst picked July 13-24th as the most likely gold bottoming range...approx $1087. So far looking like a decent call
40 yr cycles as related to PMs
Jason Zweig - world's worst market timer?
Sept 17, 2011: Growing numbers of investing experts have been declaring that gold is a bubble: an insanely overvalued asset whose price is bound to burst.
There is no basis for that opinion. And understanding why can help point an investor toward clearer thinking about frenzied markets. Even as gold has shot up past $1,800, gold-mining stocks have gone basically nowhere. And as Jason Zweig explains on The News Hub, unless gold goes way down, mining stocks look pretty cheap. Sure, gold seems expensive. At its recent price of $1,813 an ounce, gold is off only slightly from the record high of $1,912 touched on Sept. 6 (unadjusted for inflation). Gold is up more than 40% over the past year, largely on fears that paper currencies like the dollar won't retain their value. But that doesn't mean it is overvalued. .....his tune has sure changed.
<< <i>Starting to look like this thread was nailing the PM summer bottom.....and many posting on the exact day (July 23rd). >>
Gut says bottom is not yet in. Commodities are not near a rebound. Keep your eye on oil.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Starting to look like this thread was nailing the PM summer bottom.....and many posting on the exact day (July 23rd). >>
Gut says bottom is not yet in. Commodities are not near a rebound. Keep your eye on oil. >>
I'm not looking past this summer for now. July 23rd could have been the summer PM bottom. Sort of overdue for a decent bounce. If a 5th wave down to a lower low is still out there, so be it. During the 2008 crash gold, silver, plat, sugar and the AUD/USD bottomed first in October 2008. The CAD came a week or two later. Copper followed 6 weeks later in early December. Oil came about 3 months later in mid-January 2009. The USDX bottomed in March 2009 after the SM. Nothing says it has to happen that way this time.
I'm not counting on identical bottoming periods for commodities, energy, and PM's. For my money I'm keeping my eye on 3 things besides PM's and commodity prices (AUD/USD, USD/CAD, 10yr/2yr treasury yield ratio (or also real interest rates). Oil was late to the bottoming party in 2008-2009....lagging gold by 12 weeks. I suspect the individual commodity bottoms will come depending on how and when JPM alters their recent $4 TRILL "all-in" bets in otc commodity derivatives. You can bet they went heavy short on oil. And the same for Citi/JPM/GS/MS otc derivatives in gold and silver....Citi having gone "all-in" on silver.
The "boom" on July 19th that took gold down under $1130 was a high volume, gap-down in thin, overseas trading hours. That gap is very large ($1133-$1134). During this bear market the dozen or so gaps of that size have almost always filled within a few hours to a few weeks. Only 2-3 have made it to 8-10 weeks. The longest lived one was 23 weeks (the mid-August 2014 gap-down at $1304). The $1133 level will be retested in time.
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold is up 17% this year in euros. Barbaric relic? Depends on whose asking. >>
Golly, if gold is up 17% this year in euros, how much is the Nasdaq up this year in euros? How much is XON up this year in euros?? >>
At least I will recognize this ingenious post... Nice 1...
<< <i>I'm not counting on identical bottoming periods for commodities, energy, and PM's. >>
a review of the post 2008 commodity recoveries is probably a good indicator of sequence of rebounds.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A: It just sat there shining. ( in pictures )
GSR busts the 200 dma.
Gold slightly up by a little over 1%
Silver 3.5%
Is the pendulum beginning swing back? Or another false alarm.
<< <i>This next run is another opportunity to sell... >>
and narrow your losses
Although there are things called tops and bottoms
I'm waiting to find out what the heck is going on
With all the talk of physical demand, I wasn't surprised there was some paper demand here.
<< <i>The trend is your friend
Although there are things called tops and bottoms
I'm waiting to find out what the heck is going on
With all the talk of physical demand, I wasn't surprised there was some paper demand here. >>
Don't be fooled, covering a short isn't demand...
<< <i>This next run is another opportunity to sell... >>
Ya think it will hit $1280?
<< <i>
<< <i>This next run is another opportunity to sell... >>
Ya think it will hit $1280? >>
You are kidding right???
I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody sin
You got to lose to know how to win
Half my life
Is books, written pages
Live and learn from fools and
From sages
You know it's true, oh
All these feelings come back to you
Sing with me, sing for the years
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on… Dream until your dreams come true...
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>This next run is another opportunity to sell... >>
Ya think it will hit $1280? >>
You are kidding right???
I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody sin
You got to lose to know how to win
Half my life
Is books, written pages
Live and learn from fools and
From sages
You know it's true, oh
All these feelings come back to you
Sing with me, sing for the years
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on… Dream until your dreams come true... >>
It cracked $1300 in late January so not unrealistic to hope it might get to $1280.
<< <i>.....Don't be fooled, covering a short isn't demand... >>
Then logically, buying a short contract in the first place isn't a lack of demand either (ie purchasing a long and then selling it). Can't have it both ways.
Regardless there's 209,000 contracts in gold futures shorts held by the specs that will eventually have to be partially unwound during the current intermediate cycle. Figure approx 125,000 of them to be covered to get back to the typical positioning seen at intermediate cycle highs (75K). That's 12,500,000 ounces or approx 390 tonnes of paper gold/long contracts. You don't have to call it real demand. But it represents the purchase of 100 oz contracts. Seems like buying to me....or just another one of those exceptions of market dynamics? No doubt that $1280 gets hit sometime in the future. Gold experienced an $847 decline, it should have no problem recapturing $325 even in an eventual bear market rally. It left behind a pile of gaps in the $1313-$1413 range. I suspect all of these will get filled in the next 1-3 years. Even if gold should still continue down to $890....it will make it back to $1280.
Gold futures contracts extremes
But you already knew that Roadrunner.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Now what? >>
Who knows? The original post was titled gold just fell 40 bucks. Now that it's risen $43 from the recent lows, there's no mention of it.
The entire original drop from $1133 is probably going to get retraced. Major instantaneous moves that happen outside the normal NY trading hours tend to get retraced so NY can put their stamp of approval on them (ie profit from them in both directions). When prices are back to $1133 that will be the official "NY approval" of the first drop...lol.
Edited to add: Silver is back to July 14th levels or when gold was $1155.
Is nugt up??? If so I bet it's up another 10%... Again...
Gold is still up...
Dow "death cross" this week.....first time in 4 years. Dollar dumping while the rock currencies (and commodities) are trying to come out of their 5 year holes. More boost for PMs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Not a death cross. >>
And not good either.
Since the vast majority of the media will report it as such, J6P will regard it as that. And it's the first cross over of the 50/200 in 4 years. It really doesn't matter to most that the 200 dma has a nearly imperceptible up-slope to it after a 6 year rally. But those expanded wedges just keep growing wider and wider. Remember I first mentioned the biggest wedge that starts back in 1998?
Let's just call it a "bad for your health" cross for now. They often mark intermediate lows too. GDX had a couple of these 50/200 crosses in the past 5 years, and half the time the crosses marked a low or a high.
who knows what the future brings, I personally hope gold rallies like crazy, have built larger position and would not mind profitably selling a few older purchases I'm not a fond of anymore
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
But they have since gone back to flat on the 200 dma. I don't like that wedging action in the 2nd half of 2014. It's pointing down to the 7000 range. Wedge-away.
May go a little higher yet, before it comes back down
Bingo...
<< <i>a few of my customers are using this rise to get out
May go a little higher yet, before it comes back down >>
If these customers are getting out with a $30-$40 rise in gold, they couldn't have been very strong hands to begin with. Hopefully, none of them hung on from $1900-$1080, and are just now deciding to get out on a 3-4% bounce. I'd be looking at $1170 for a first bounce target....possibly up to $1205-1210 as a 2nd target. However, can't even entertain those thoughts until the forced break down point at $1134 is recovered.
edited to add: getting some strong local demand again which I haven't seen in a while
i sure hope they know what they are doing...
<< <i>all i want to know, maybe Stan or derryb can tell us, is who exactly let the price of gold rise this past week or so...
i sure hope they know what they are doing... >>
Doesn't matter. What does matter is seeing it coming. To do that one must focus on the market and not on the forum members. lol
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>all i want to know, maybe Stan or derryb can tell us, is who exactly let the price of gold rise this past week or so... >>
The same guys who took it down from $1134 to $1087 in under 1 minute during "normally light" overseas trading hours on Sunday night, July 19th. Now they get to make the some money all over again reversing price right back up again. Nice work if you can swing it and not even get a phone call from the CFTC.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Is it a Dow death cross yet?
DIA etf on the very cusp of a very obvious death cross.
Who was saying this past week nice trade on holding the S&P 500? Might be more prudent to wait until the end of this week before confirming congratulations. And who knows what that will be in 6, 12, 24 months from now. Commodities have already been at this "party" for 4 years. Stocks just walked into the room.
I guess this is an easy call looking at current futures and with I think 3 having very recently occurred.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Is there a "death cross " on the sp500, nasdaq, or Russell 2000? >>
Someone has to be first, or second.