<< <i>Well, in a round about way Chinese demand is setting the price of gold.
I wonder how much PBOC bought above $1,200 and how long it will be before they go to plan B. >>
Besides the 600 tones the PBOC there's also the 6500 tonnes or so that was absorbed by the Chinese people. Figure +7,000 tonnes in the past 6 years (imports, mining, jewelry). If the sovereign fund is not buying it at the rate many expected, the people certainly are. I'm sure they don't mind the sale price.
How much did the PBOC buy above $1200? Certainly not as much as they bought under $1200. They added 454 tonnes from 2002-2009 (all of it below $1200). Considering they've been adding since at least 2004, they may have accumulated most of it at much lower prices. I don't think they are too preoccupied with the actual amount paid for it as they are the total amount they have. Currently their gold is only 1.6% of their total $3 TRILL+ in foreign currency reserves. If diversification is what they're after $60 BILL in gold vs. $3 TRILL in digital currencies/USTreasuries is a drop in the bucket. How worried would you be with a net worth of $500K and your gold portfolio at $8K just dropped 2% ($160?).
China is not about to stop buying gold as they need more to get a better seat at the economic table when the issue of SDR's comes up. They want the Yuan included in the next world currency basket. We have no idea if they reported all of their 2009-2015 gold purchases or just a portion of it. If I were them I wouldn't have reported anything more than they did so that I could continue buying on the cheap until I had 100% of my target goal. They learned their lesson in 2009 when their buying jerked the market higher (and helped initiate the run from $1050 to $1923). This time around they probably figured out that reporting a less than expected number would be the best of both worlds. They are now #5 on the world list of largest gold reserves....and still behind Italy, France, Germany, and USA. I suspect China is cooperating with the FED/USTreasury. Both sides are getting what they want. China is not selling off USTreasuries....but they continue to buy all the gold they want or need. They also don't appear to be in any rush. They're sticking with Plan A and probably loving it. What they certainly don't love is sitting on >$3 TRILL in paper/digital in the cloud assets. For all we know the PBOB bought no gold on the rise from $1400-$1900 or during the fall from $1900-$1400.
You really can't put a price on Catastrophe Insurance. The USTreasury is sitting on $300 BILL in gold (8133 tonnes). Did they care that it went from $252 to $1923 and now back down to $1105/oz? I doubt it. Yet some here would apparently call them fools for not selling it. How does that $300 BILL stack up against a $17 TRILL debt and $1.3 TRILL in circulating paper FRN's?
<< <i>I hope They are able to "price" gold higher so I can sell some... or, alternatively, I hope they price it lower so I can buy some, or, if They do not do either of those, I hope They keep gold the same so I can hold this amount. >>
Well I don't know the true story of what's going on in China but that never stopped me from having an opinion before
I think China is in deep kimshi. Only time will tell. They don't want the bad news getting out which leads me to believe things are a lot worse than we know.
I like how people talk about China (or the United States, for that matter) as if it were a thing, instead of a collection of human beings who each have free will (within the real and cognitive boundaries of their respective realities)
Who says China sold gold? Because it happened on their watch?
This article seems to suggest that something else, unless the Chinese Govt wanted to "spook" its own people. And if this is so, then we Westerners want China to "set prices" knowing that they could drop the price over 4% in a minute. Or maybe that was just a test run for something more sinister. This story is so ripe for a conspiracy. Whoohoo!!!
Who says it was China? The big banks have trading desks in Asia and Europe so they are represented at all hours of the day. Could have been any one of them. My vote would be with HSBC since they are custodian of the GLD trust. But those extra $50 BILL in otc silver and PGM derivatives that Citibank picked up 1st quarter sure came in handy these past few weeks. Commodities have been a mess since end of March....just about the time JPM added $4 TRILL in otc commodity derivatives. I hope these guys haven't taught the Chinese how to "play" the otc derivatives game.
People act on fear. Remember what goes up comes down-FASTER.
This manipulated market can come down very quickly.A person has to rely on their trading instincts because a lot of facts are telling different stories.
I'm getting out of the way. I see a lot of damage comming up.
1. China misreported their gold reserves from 2004-2009 (they had more than they claimed). They did the same from 2010-2015. 2 strikes.
2. China's foreign reserves are $3.69 TRILL USD. Their 1658 tonnes of reported gold is approx 1.62% of reserves. That's just way too little for what they will need to be a true world economic power with an SDR level currency.
Conclusion: Their gold reserves are possibly much larger than just reported (ie they've lied twice already, why not a 3rd time?). It would have been to their advantage to understate their reserves, just as it was from 2003-2015. If 1658 tonnes is correct....they still need to buy a lot more gold. A number of countries have made efforts to repatriate their gold from US, London, and French vaults....Germany being the most vocal....Venezuela being the most successful. Does any of that sound like a reason for China to be selling gold? If they really wanted to sell it I'm sure the US would be happy to print up $60 BILL in FRN's/TBonds and take those 1658 tonnes off their hands for current market price.
Economic person of the year 2011 in China, Sun Zhaoxue, who was also the President of the China Gold Association and General Manager of the China National Gold Group Corporation, wrote in August 2012:
Individual investment demand is an important component of China’s gold reserve system, we should encourage individual investment demand for gold. Practice shows that gold possession by citizens is an effective supplement to national reserves and is very important to national financial security.
<< <i>$1,100 x 12oz. X 2000 x 1,658= does that equal 60 billion? >>
How about $1100 x 32,151 oz/tonne x $1658 = $58.64 BILL. Close enough for me. But, fwiw I originally just used the USA's inventory at an estimated $300 BILL and then ratio out 1658/8133 (20%) which is simple. And no, your calculation above is incorrect with respect to metric tonnes.....or long or short tons for that matter. You can just ball park it with 32,000 which should be a familiar number to American short tons.
China needs to buy gold. Since both the PBOC and the people themselves have been buying steadily since 2002, that's the trend until we see otherwise with imports, mine supply, and stated inventories. The interesting part is that the buying by the people has picked up despite the falling gold price of the past 2 years. Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it.
<< <i>Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it. >>
FYI...only if you loose, you have to give it back. If you win, it's considered a war booty. Just ask the Romans, Spaniards, English, French or Russians.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it. >>
FYI...only if you loose, you have to give it back. If you win, it's considered a war booty. Just ask the Romans, Spaniards, English, French or Russians. >>
<< <i>Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it. >>
FYI...only if you loose, you have to give it back. If you win, it's considered a war booty. Just ask the Romans, Spaniards, English, French or Russians. >>
You left out the Americans. >>
I thought I'd leave that up to you.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Hey Brian can you weave China, gold, Apple, derivitives, Hitler stealing gold and the $100 million that was just endowed UCBerkeley to locate alien life into one thread?
Hey Brian can you weave China, gold, Apple, derivitives, Hitler stealing gold and the $100 million that was just endowed UCBerkeley to locate alien life into one thread?
Use quantum mechanics if necessary.
You da man. >>
Seems quite doable....but much easier to link all those to Kevin Bacon. Speaking of China, they are experiencing some historic capital outflows in 2015 that have caught the eye of JPM and GS. Another ZH source but they do quote the banks directly. Their pesky $60 BILL in gold seems a trifle as they unwound anywhere from $200-500 BILL in US Forex. It would seem they prefer buying tangible assets and selling paper. Could have complications for USTreasuries and USDX. And here I thought they were still following the 2013-2014 game plan of maintaining their USTBonds.
Comments
<< <i>Is anyone concerned, that if this would happen, that the USA would invoke the same deal they did in 1933 ?
Take all the gold we own ?
I am. >>
I am not.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I wonder how much PBOC bought above $1,200 and how long it will be before they go to plan B.
<< <i>Well, in a round about way Chinese demand is setting the price of gold.
I wonder how much PBOC bought above $1,200 and how long it will be before they go to plan B. >>
Besides the 600 tones the PBOC there's also the 6500 tonnes or so that was absorbed by the Chinese people. Figure +7,000 tonnes in the past 6 years (imports, mining, jewelry). If the sovereign fund is not buying it at the rate many expected, the people certainly are. I'm sure they don't mind the sale price.
How much did the PBOC buy above $1200? Certainly not as much as they bought under $1200. They added 454 tonnes from 2002-2009 (all of it below $1200). Considering they've been adding since at least 2004, they may have accumulated most of it at much lower prices. I don't think they are too preoccupied with the actual amount paid for it as they are the total amount they have. Currently their gold is only 1.6% of their total $3 TRILL+ in foreign currency reserves. If diversification is what they're after $60 BILL in gold vs. $3 TRILL in digital currencies/USTreasuries is a drop in the bucket. How worried would you be with a net worth of $500K and your gold portfolio at $8K just dropped 2% ($160?).
China is not about to stop buying gold as they need more to get a better seat at the economic table when the issue of SDR's comes up. They want the Yuan included in the next world currency basket. We have no idea if they reported all of their 2009-2015 gold purchases or just a portion of it. If I were them I wouldn't have reported anything more than they did so that I could continue buying on the cheap until I had 100% of my target goal. They learned their lesson in 2009 when their buying jerked the market higher (and helped initiate the run from $1050 to $1923). This time around they probably figured out that reporting a less than expected number would be the best of both worlds. They are now #5 on the world list of largest gold reserves....and still behind Italy, France, Germany, and USA. I suspect China is cooperating with the FED/USTreasury. Both sides are getting what they want. China is not selling off USTreasuries....but they continue to buy all the gold they want or need. They also don't appear to be in any rush. They're sticking with Plan A and probably loving it. What they certainly don't love is sitting on >$3 TRILL in paper/digital in the cloud assets. For all we know the PBOB bought no gold on the rise from $1400-$1900 or during the fall from $1900-$1400.
You really can't put a price on Catastrophe Insurance. The USTreasury is sitting on $300 BILL in gold (8133 tonnes). Did they care that it went from $252 to $1923 and now back down to $1105/oz? I doubt it. Yet some here would apparently call them fools for not selling it. How does that $300 BILL stack up against a $17 TRILL debt and $1.3 TRILL in circulating paper FRN's?
<< <i>I hope They are able to "price" gold higher so I can sell some... or, alternatively, I hope they price it lower so I can buy some, or, if They do not do either of those, I hope They keep gold the same so I can hold this amount. >>
So far, so good
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Plus they didn't know they were being lied to about what they could KEEP.
I think China is in deep kimshi. Only time will tell. They don't want the bad news getting out which leads me to believe things are a lot worse than we know.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
China gold News
The result...http://www.mining.com/chinese-rare-earth-metals-exchange-to-pay-6-4bn-owed-to-investors/
And now you want them to "Set Gold Prices"? LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Remember the talk a few years ago about China and the rare earth minerals?
The result...http://www.mining.com/chinese-rare-earth-metals-exchange-to-pay-6-4bn-owed-to-investors/
And now you want them to "Set Gold Prices"? LOL >>
they are setting prices now by dumping gold as they did last evening.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
This article seems to suggest that something else, unless the Chinese Govt wanted to "spook" its own people. And if this is so, then we Westerners want China to "set prices" knowing that they could drop the price over 4% in a minute. Or maybe that was just a test run for something more sinister.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3337045-gold-falls-more-than-4-percent-in-under-a-minute-here-is-what-investors-need-to-know
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This manipulated market can come down very quickly.A person has to rely on their trading instincts because a lot of facts are telling different stories.
I'm getting out of the way. I see a lot of damage comming up.
I knew it would happen.
1. China misreported their gold reserves from 2004-2009 (they had more than they claimed). They did the same from 2010-2015. 2 strikes.
2. China's foreign reserves are $3.69 TRILL USD. Their 1658 tonnes of reported gold is approx 1.62% of reserves. That's just way too little for what they will need to be a true world economic power with an SDR level currency.
Conclusion: Their gold reserves are possibly much larger than just reported (ie they've lied twice already, why not a 3rd time?). It would have been to their advantage to understate their reserves, just as it was from 2003-2015. If 1658 tonnes is correct....they still need to buy a lot more gold. A number of countries have made efforts to repatriate their gold from US, London, and French vaults....Germany being the most vocal....Venezuela being the most successful. Does any of that sound like a reason for China to be selling gold? If they really wanted to sell it I'm sure the US would be happy to print up $60 BILL in FRN's/TBonds and take those 1658 tonnes off their hands for current market price.
This 2012 paper from the VP of China Gold Association indicated they think they should have a min of 4,000 tonnes of gold by 2020 and 8,000 by 2030. ....they need to get busy if their reported numbers are accurate. In a country that probably has a min of 13K-16K tonnes in private gold reserves, the central bank having only 10% of that seems underweight. And the large differences between stated Reuters WGC "retail" gold demand vs. the actual Chinese gold demand figures raises questions.
Economic person of the year 2011 in China, Sun Zhaoxue, who was also the President of the China Gold Association and General Manager of the China National Gold Group Corporation, wrote in August 2012:
Individual investment demand is an important component of China’s gold reserve system, we should encourage individual investment demand for gold. Practice shows that gold possession by citizens is an effective supplement to national reserves and is very important to national financial security.
China gold story
60 billion?
China needs to buy gold. Streeter needs to buy gold. Hitler needed to get through the Ardennes and hold.
Doesn't make it so. Priorities change.
<< <i>$1,100 x 12oz. X 2000 x 1,658= does that equal 60 billion? >>
How about $1100 x 32,151 oz/tonne x $1658 = $58.64 BILL. Close enough for me. But, fwiw I originally just used the USA's inventory at an estimated $300 BILL and then ratio out 1658/8133 (20%) which is simple. And no, your calculation above is incorrect with respect to metric tonnes.....or long or short tons for that matter. You can just ball park it with 32,000 which should be a familiar number to American short tons.
China needs to buy gold. Since both the PBOC and the people themselves have been buying steadily since 2002, that's the trend until we see otherwise with imports, mine supply, and stated inventories. The interesting part is that the buying by the people has picked up despite the falling gold price of the past 2 years. Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it.
<< <i>Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it. >>
FYI...only if you loose, you have to give it back. If you win, it's considered a war booty. Just ask the Romans, Spaniards, English, French or Russians.
<< <i>
<< <i>Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it. >>
FYI...only if you loose, you have to give it back. If you win, it's considered a war booty. Just ask the Romans, Spaniards, English, French or Russians.
You left out the Americans.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Hitler didn't need to buy gold....he stole it. >>
FYI...only if you loose, you have to give it back. If you win, it's considered a war booty. Just ask the Romans, Spaniards, English, French or Russians.
You left out the Americans. >>
I thought I'd leave that up to you.
It reports 1,658 tonnes of gold...$60 Billion. ±
Apple Computer has $200 BILLION 24 hr. Liquidity, CASH.
China doesn't seem too important to me.
Maybe Apple should buy gold.
Hey Brian can you weave China, gold, Apple, derivitives, Hitler stealing gold and the $100 million that was just endowed UCBerkeley to locate alien life into one thread?
Use quantum mechanics if necessary.
You da man.
<< <i>Ruh Roh. Apple stock down a dollar.
Hey Brian can you weave China, gold, Apple, derivitives, Hitler stealing gold and the $100 million that was just endowed UCBerkeley to locate alien life into one thread?
Use quantum mechanics if necessary.
You da man. >>
Seems quite doable....but much easier to link all those to Kevin Bacon. Speaking of China, they are experiencing some historic capital outflows in 2015 that have caught the eye of JPM and GS. Another ZH source but they do quote the banks directly. Their pesky $60 BILL in gold seems a trifle as they unwound anywhere from $200-500 BILL in US Forex. It would seem they prefer buying tangible assets and selling paper. Could have complications for USTreasuries and USDX. And here I thought they were still following the 2013-2014 game plan of maintaining their USTBonds.
China's dumping US Treasuries
Russia still buying gold - adds 25 tonnes in June - now has 13% of reserves in gold - adds 750 tonnes over the same period China claims to have added 604 tonne