TOP 5% of MARKET!

BAJJERFAN

From the latest Legend Market Report.

"Since late last year on our level of collecting (the top 5% of the market) we experienced nothing but turmoil. We witnessed a shock that the Pogues and Gene Gardner were selling. Some people thought Simspon was too (as now proven, he was just pruning). A few higher rollers panicked and dumped. Nearly a year later the dust has cleared. Gardner is sold and we had the first sale of Pogue. Things aren't so bad after all. We see it as sort of a "rising from the ashes" scenerio. "

Which other dealers are in the top 5% or YOUR top 5% of the market?

braddick

Top 5% of the market is still one out of every twenty coins. Seems high to me.

oreville

Well, "rising from the ashes' might be a little bit too dramatic.

Perhaps "calming down of the markets" or "stabilizing market" might be more apt?

joebb21

If you think about the cac market, I would imagine that only 5-10% of the total population per date/grade actually sticker.

So if a dealer handles cac coins almost exclusively they then deal in the "top 5%" of the market.

As an example I just pulled at random:

On a common 1879-s $1 ms67 the total population between the 2 services is 3,337 pieces
Take the total that are cac'd at 338

This on a common date you are dealing in the top 10%

At the ms66 level the total pop is 14,064
cac pop at 489 (wow thats low)

So owning an 1879-s $1 ms66 cac is owning a coin in the top 4%

Now say you have an 1884-cc ms65 where the total pop between pcgs and ngc is 11,556
at cac its 367 in ms65 stickered

so once again you are in the top 4%

TwoSides2aCoin

Some great coins came to market. A Perfect Storm, (imo).

brg5658

<< <i>If you think about the cac market, I would imagine that only 5-10% of the total population per date/grade actually sticker.

So if a dealer handles cac coins almost exclusively they then deal in the "top 5%" of the market.

As an example I just pulled at random:

On a common 1879-s $1 ms67 the total population between the 2 services is 3,337 pieces
Take the total that are cac'd at 338

This on a common date you are dealing in the top 10%

At the ms66 level the total pop is 14,064
cac pop at 489 (wow thats low)

So owning an 1879-s $1 ms66 cac is owning a coin in the top 4%

Now say you have an 1884-cc ms65 where the total pop between pcgs and ngc is 11,556
at cac its 367 in ms65 stickered

so once again you are in the top 4% >>



The fallacy in your logic is that you assume ALL of the PCGS & NGC graded coins have been submitted to CAC. That's not anywhere close to the truth.

CAC doesn't advertise how many 1879-S Morgans they have reviewed, so there is no way for you to guess what percentage "pass CAC" muster.

As for the Legend Report....well, meh.

Boosibri

We will look back in 10 years and only then realize how lucky we were to witness all the great coins coming to market now.

VanHalen

<< <i>We will look back in 10 years and only then realize how lucky we were to witness all the great coins coming to market now. >>



^^I like it.^^ It is interesting for a small fry to watch from the sidelines.

TopographicOceans

The top 5% is only for the 1%

Regulated

<< <i>We will look back in 10 years and only then realize how lucky we were to witness all the great coins coming to market now. >>



This is exactly what I have been saying.

At any given time there is only so much cash in the market, and there are only so many legitimately rare, great quality coins out there. For the last year or so, the balance has tipped away from cash. If you were to take a single one of the high end sales that have just taken place, and set them three or four years ago when we had a lot of money in the market and a backlog of low end/doctored coins, I think you would be astonished at the prices realized.

We humans have short memories, and the glut of incredible coins on the market today has us spoiled. I've had seemingly smart collectors pass on coins that they really should have bought because the current market dynamics make it seem as if certain coins (ones we used to consider "once in a lifetime" opportunities) are readily available. They aren't - they're available now.

Art Kagin used to say that the mistakes that he had made that he regretted most were sins of omission, not sins of commission. In other words, he regretted the coins he hadn't bought when he had the chance a lot more than the ones he bought that he shouldn't have.

That is great advice for people collecting truly rare, high quality material. The big problem today is that the vast majority of coins being collected are neither rare, nor of good quality.

Regulated

If you see the top 5% as a nexus of rarity and quality, you probably don't have to be in the top 1% to play, although it certainly helps.