Technical analysis on gold----not my work and no affiliation.

cohodk

Just presenting for those who wish to read one man's interpretation of the chart pattern.

http://stockcharts.com/articles/chart*watchers/2015/05/trend-model-joins-pmo-with-buy-signal-on-gold.html

Remove the * and copy and paste to your browser.

roadrunner

Seems reasonable. A move to $1250-$1263 shouldn't be all that hard to make.

Thing is, the dollar could bottom at any time here if it hasn't already. That might not bode well for gold. Gold has not gained all that much in the 8-9 weeks that the dollar has dropped from 100 to 93. A 7.5% gain in gold (1142 to 1227) while the dollar has dropped approx 7%. Zero leverage going on there. The move up in the AUD/USD was also 8%. The USD/JPY drop was only about 3%. Hard to get excited.

derryb

and, let's not forget about oil's influence. Weakening oil will strengthen dollar and weaken metals.

cohodk

Actually the stronger dollar will weaken oil, but to agree with both of you I believe the dollar will go higher.

derryb

I think, for now, that oil is driving some things that normally drive the price of oil.
Seems oil, dollars and metals are all trading as if they are currencies.

ricko

Based on all the foregoing commentary, it would seem no one has any idea of what will happen near term.... not intended as criticism, just an observation. Cheers, RickO

cohodk

Interesting comment Rick as I read the blog and the following comments as all having an idea of near term movements. What exactly would you like to see/hear? That gold will be 1285 at 11:42 am edt on June 2?

roadrunner

<< <i>Based on all the foregoing commentary, it would seem no one has any idea of what will happen near term.... not intended as criticism, just an observation. Cheers, RickO >>



Actually, there are weeks where you can get near term moves almost to the hour. I've tracked cycles in gold that bottomed every 3 days for 2 weeks. Sometimes very defined cycles are put right in front of you. And correlating those cycles with other inputs (TA, fibs, gaps, repeating fractals, FOMC meetings, Jobs report) can increase your odds further. Nothing is a sure thing, but I have no problem accepting 70-75% probabilities in the short term.

Justacommeman

<< <i> What exactly would you like to see/hear? That gold will be 1285 at 11:42 am edt on June 2? >>



That would be very useful information

mark

mariner67

<< <i>Based on all the foregoing commentary, it would seem no one has any idea of what will happen near term.... not intended as criticism, just an observation. Cheers, RickO >>



To the contrary, after reading the posts it seems to me that many here have ideas about what will happen near term.
Unfortunately, most are usually proven wrong.

derryb

I'm remaining short term negative. Today's action reinforces my gut.

In this thread on 1/6/15 at 1:43 PM I made the following call:

"First half of 2015 will be a continuation. 100 dollar index, 10% reduction from current PM price levels. Second half of 2015 the central financial planning dominoes will begin to fall. Fact that dollar index and gold are currently moving together is a temporary anomaly and proof that dollar index does not equal dollar value."

Since then the dollar index did hit 100 and dropped back. The dollar index and gold resumed their inverse relationship. I still believe we will see that 10% drop (gold ~$1100) in the near term, but to do so the dollar will have to recapture the 100 mark and crude oil will have to dip below $48. By end of year metals will have begun a big, new leg up.

guitarwes

That would have been good information to have yesterday derryb.

DSLV up 10%.

derryb

I had the information, and acted on it yesterday.

guitarwes

How about tomorrow's?

Is the FOMC gonna be the short's friend?

derryb

I will be holding my DSLV overnight. Doesn't mean I'll be correct.

FWIW I'm also buying ASEs today, have been all year.

jmski52

To the contrary, after reading the posts it seems to me that many here have ideas about what will happen near term.
Unfortunately, most are usually proven wrong.

Gold and silver got nailed today, but I wouldn't have been able to predict that in advance.

Isn't it the case that the near term really only matters if you are in & out, trading the market? I mean, it's always nice to get a good price and to buy right at the dip but it's also important to be building a position without taking a major plunge that might affect your longterm financial viability if it goes sour.

A slow and steady accumulation dissipates a lot of the risk associated with short term whipsaws in the market.

guitarwes

Where we going today?

derryb

Eventually a Greek exit is going to have a big, positive affect on metals - but not today.

roadrunner

GDX had been doing cycles of 5 days up and 5 days down for a few weeks now. Fits pretty well with the typical 8-11 and 18-22 day cycles it typically moves on. So figuring after 11 days up into last Thursday would result in a hit at some point (leading into FOMC Wednesday) was a pretty reasonable call. The tops had been coming in every 7-9 days. Last week it stretched to 11 days. Movements in GDX often hint at what's coming for gold and silver. It didn't help any that GDX and GDXJ were showing run patterns of 2 down and 5-6 days up....those tend to end bearishly.

GDX miners

GSR had formed a typical 3-4 week bottoming pattern with 3 heads in the stoch-rsi. And then that final crash deep in to the lower BB as it blew past the 200 dma. The 3 week drop was a very symmetric ABC where the down legs were of equal length. You had to figure odds were good a rebound was coming shortly.

GSR

jmski52

Holy Carp! rr, I just looked at the 5 yr chart for GDXJ. Oh my! I might have to start getting involved.

derryb

<< <i>Holy Carp! rr, I just looked at the 5 yr chart for GDXJ. Oh my! I might have to start getting involved. >>