Technical analysis on gold----not my work and no affiliation.
cohodk
Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
Just presenting for those who wish to read one man's interpretation of the chart pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chart*watchers/2015/05/trend-model-joins-pmo-with-buy-signal-on-gold.html
Remove the * and copy and paste to your browser.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chart*watchers/2015/05/trend-model-joins-pmo-with-buy-signal-on-gold.html
Remove the * and copy and paste to your browser.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Thing is, the dollar could bottom at any time here if it hasn't already. That might not bode well for gold. Gold has not gained all that much in the 8-9 weeks that the dollar has dropped from 100 to 93. A 7.5% gain in gold (1142 to 1227) while the dollar has dropped approx 7%. Zero leverage going on there. The move up in the AUD/USD was also 8%. The USD/JPY drop was only about 3%. Hard to get excited.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Seems oil, dollars and metals are all trading as if they are currencies.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Based on all the foregoing commentary, it would seem no one has any idea of what will happen near term.... not intended as criticism, just an observation. Cheers, RickO >>
Actually, there are weeks where you can get near term moves almost to the hour. I've tracked cycles in gold that bottomed every 3 days for 2 weeks. Sometimes very defined cycles are put right in front of you. And correlating those cycles with other inputs (TA, fibs, gaps, repeating fractals, FOMC meetings, Jobs report) can increase your odds further. Nothing is a sure thing, but I have no problem accepting 70-75% probabilities in the short term.
<< <i> What exactly would you like to see/hear? That gold will be 1285 at 11:42 am edt on June 2? >>
That would be very useful information
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Based on all the foregoing commentary, it would seem no one has any idea of what will happen near term.... not intended as criticism, just an observation. Cheers, RickO >>
To the contrary, after reading the posts it seems to me that many here have ideas about what will happen near term.
Unfortunately, most are usually proven wrong.
In this thread on 1/6/15 at 1:43 PM I made the following call:
"First half of 2015 will be a continuation. 100 dollar index, 10% reduction from current PM price levels. Second half of 2015 the central financial planning dominoes will begin to fall. Fact that dollar index and gold are currently moving together is a temporary anomaly and proof that dollar index does not equal dollar value."
Since then the dollar index did hit 100 and dropped back. The dollar index and gold resumed their inverse relationship. I still believe we will see that 10% drop (gold ~$1100) in the near term, but to do so the dollar will have to recapture the 100 mark and crude oil will have to dip below $48. By end of year metals will have begun a big, new leg up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
DSLV up 10%.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Is the FOMC gonna be the short's friend?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
FWIW I'm also buying ASEs today, have been all year.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Unfortunately, most are usually proven wrong.
Gold and silver got nailed today, but I wouldn't have been able to predict that in advance.
Isn't it the case that the near term really only matters if you are in & out, trading the market? I mean, it's always nice to get a good price and to buy right at the dip but it's also important to be building a position without taking a major plunge that might affect your longterm financial viability if it goes sour.
A slow and steady accumulation dissipates a lot of the risk associated with short term whipsaws in the market.
I knew it would happen.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
GDX miners
GSR had formed a typical 3-4 week bottoming pattern with 3 heads in the stoch-rsi. And then that final crash deep in to the lower BB as it blew past the 200 dma. The 3 week drop was a very symmetric ABC where the down legs were of equal length. You had to figure odds were good a rebound was coming shortly.
GSR
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Holy Carp! rr, I just looked at the 5 yr chart for GDXJ. Oh my! I might have to start getting involved. >>
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey