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NBA playoffs. Who will win?

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    BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 8,053 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In the interest of fair play I would of liked to seen the Cavs at full strength (Love,Irving). If GS wins it may be said that they defeated a team at less than full strength. And in some judgements will have been a tainted championship. On the other hand if the Cavs win w/o 2 of their big guns, it will be said that the Cavs overachieved and their championship (and Lebron) will be viewed in greater terms. Don't have a stake in either team and am enjoying all the games.
    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
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    PSASAPPSASAP Posts: 2,284 ✭✭✭
    Tainted seems to imply that something shady, like steroids or cheating, allowed a team to win. I think it's more like good luck for the team that stayed healthy.
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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just checked some stats for the Cavs and Warriors for the playoffs thus far.

    Cavs:

    14 wins and 4 losses. In the 14 wins the margin of victory averages +10.1 points. In the 4 losses the margin of defeat averages - 9.8 points.

    Home playoff record is 7 wins and 2 losses. In the 7 home wins the margin of victory is +11.3 points. In the 2 home losses the margin of defeat averages -14 points.

    Away playoff record is 7 wins and 2 losses. In the seven away wins the margin of victory is +9 points. In the 2 away losses the margin of defeat averages -5.5 points.


    Warriors:

    14 wins and 5 losses. In the 14 wins the margin of victory is +12.6 points. In the 5 losses the margin of defeat averages -7.4 points.

    Home playoff record is 8-2. In the 8 home wins the margin of victory is +9.9 points. In the 2 home losses the margin of defeat is -4.5 points.

    Away playoff record is 6-3. In the 6 away wins the margin of victory is +14.7 points. In the 3 away losses the margin of defeat is -9.3 points.


    Looking forward to Game 5. Whoever wins that game will be in the driver's seat to win the title.
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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would think there are two scenarios which could unfold based on this next game.

    Cavs win game five --- Cavs win title in six games.
    Warriors win game five --- Warriors win title in seven games.

    Kevin, those stats are pretty close and show how even the teams are, I suppose it would have been hard to pick two better opponents. about the only marked difference is the point spread in Golden State's home losses where the score tends to be closer. since you are a stat freak what would be needed to have the teams even in everything prior to Golden State winning in game seven, the final scores in the next two games???image
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    BrickBrick Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cleveland does not have the talent on the floor that Golden State has. Cleveland has to start players who should be coming in off the bench and playing them many more minutes that they are used to. This shows up at the end of the game. Cleveland has faltered mightily the last half of the fourth quarters. They will be better rested tonight. It is imperative they pull out game five or it is over. I only see the Cavs winning if Golden State does something completely stupid and out of character.
    Collecting 1960 Topps Baseball in PSA 8
    http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/

    Ralph

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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Keets.

    I just read your thread and you question for me. Off the top of my head, I have no idea and thinking it through will give me a headache. Instead I will catch part of the game tonight while attending a high school graduation party for the youngest daughter of some family friends.
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    PSASAPPSASAP Posts: 2,284 ✭✭✭
    Always wanted to attend an NBA Finals game, so I bit the bullet and got a couple of tickets. Looking forward to tip off.

    image
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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,163 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Always wanted to attend an NBA Finals game, so I buy the bullet and got a couple of tickets. Looking forward to tip off.

    image >>



    AWESOME SAUCE! Savor every second......and look for Hellmuth! LOL
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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm anxious to hear the explanation for sitting Mozgov when the Cavs were getting beat on the boards at both ends.
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    pocketpiececommemspocketpiececommems Posts: 5,749 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When the Warriors are hot they're hotimage
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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Close game until the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. Then the Warriors ran away from the Cavs. Curry had a break out game.

    Watching post game coverage and replays.

    Looking forward to Game 6.

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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Curry made some remarkable shots, even more remarkable when you consider that earlier he was only able to hit from one spot. watching this series it has been eye opening to consider how so much can hinge on so little. players from both teams, including Curry, have been denied baskets by a matter of an inch in many, many instances. other shots(I remember one by Curry) have seemingly been inside and below the rim to only spin out. also, this game ended being high scoring when you think that for about the first 3-4 minutes neither team could score.

    have you listened to the announcers talk about the officials "letting them play" when things have been rough?? that has been the single biggest aspect that I find strange. sometimes the play and contact is well beyond what appears to be a foul and nothing is done. at other times the contact is so incidental as to be almost non-existent and we have a whistle. they have also commented several times about "If that was in the regular season" the call would be different. I can't understand that. to my way of thinking the refs need to call whatever they call but they need to at least give the players an idea of what they can/cannot do.

    sometimes the players on both teams really look confused about the contact.
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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Warriors have outscored the Cavs in the 4th quarter in the last 3 game. I think that this is due to the Warriors depth and the Cavs lack of depth. With the 7 Cavs regulars playing as many minutes they have they run out of energy.

    Watching pre game, post game and during game media coverage of the series is interesting. The tenor of the coverage is "LeBron centric". He is the narrative and the narrative must be followed. A few years ago the narrative was Kobe, Shaq, MJ, Magic, Bird, Dr. J, etc.
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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,163 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>One final prediction: Stephen Curry is going to go off in one of these final two or three games. I'm talking 35+. >>



    What, no love?
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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Love is heading your way Galaxy27.

    Your prediction was spot on, as Curry went off for 37 (which is 35+).

    How about an encore prediction?

    Who wins tomorrow night?


    Further, for PSASAP, how about posting a reply that provides your recap of all things Game 5 (from the perspective of a fan who attended the game)?
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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,163 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Love is heading your way Galaxy27.

    Your prediction was spot on, as Curry went off for 37 (which is 35+).

    How about an encore prediction?

    Who wins tomorrow night? >>



    I'm going to preface this by saying that I picked the Warriors in 6 prior to the series. Having watched the evolution by way of every second of every game, my gut now says that I'm going to be wrong. If given the opportunity, I'd change my prediction to 7 games for the following reasons:

    1) I can't fathom a scenario where the opposition celebrates a championship on LeBron's turf. He may play all 48 minutes, shoot 75 times and die on the court tomorrow night before he allows the Warriors to hoist the trophy in his house, because that would be nothing short of personal to him. Did you see him in the postgame presser? Someone from the media asked him if he had confidence going back home for Game 6, and he looked like he was about ready to crawl over the table and inflict some hurt for the ages. With a pissed off look on his face, he said something to the effect of, "Of course I'm confident. I'm the best player in the world."

    2) The Warriors know they have G7 back at Oracle in their hip pockets. Psychologically, they might be inclined to raise their feet off the gas just a smidge, and if that happens I don't think they'll win. It's going to require them to empty their tanks, because the Cavs are going to leave it all out on the floor. Let's face it, Cleveland is playing with house money at this juncture and has nothing to lose. They're severely depleted against a team that had the 6th best regular season record in the history of the NBA, yet they have managed to push this thing to a 6th game. Incredibly remarkable when you stop to think about it, and it's due in no small part to LBJ.

    3) Just as the Warriors have made adjustments along the way, I think the Cavs found a potential gold mine last night. If I were David Blatt, I would foul Andre Iguodala early and often. As important as he has been in this series, he has lost his way at the charity stripe. Completely and totally lost it. He's a career 72% FT shooter, but last night he looked like he couldn't hit the side of a whale's appendage with the basketball. I liken his struggles to a golfer who has the yips on the green. It's 1,000% mental and the flaws in your stroke become damn near involuntary. Who knows, perhaps he flew to Cleveland today and is in the midst of shooting 10,000 free throws as we speak. But what I do know is that I saw a guy last night who looked borderline scared as he walked to the line. If I were Cleveland, I'd hack-an-Iggy until he proves he can make foul shots on a consistent basis. If he is unable to do so, Steve Kerr may be forced to remove him from the game, and that will mean the best defender of King James no longer doing so. That duty will then shift to one Harrison Barnes, and watching him attempt to guard LeBron is like going to a bullfight -- enough matador defense to last you a lifetime. So the upside for this strategy is sky high.

    4) With as awesome and compelling as this series has been, doesn't it feel like it's going to go the distance?


    What does everyone else think? And yeah, I'd love a synopsis from PSASAP. Can't imagine how much fun that must have been.
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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Maybe I am out to lunch on this but it would not surprise me at all to see the Warriors win Game 6. Something about their team just gives a vibe that they will not be denied. I do not expect them to take their foot off of the gas pedal at all in game 6. If anything they will be playing even harder, simply to close the series out and not have to go to a winner take all game 7.

    In the Memphis series the Warriors fell behind 2-1 after losing game 2 at home and game 3 in Memphis. In game 4 at Memphis the Warriors won by 17. In game 5 at home the Warriors won by 20. In game 6 in Memphis the Warriors won by 13.

    In the Houston series the Warriors blew out the Rockets in game 3 in Houston by 35 points. They lost game 4 in Houston. The clinched the series at home in game 5 beating the Rockets by 24 points.

    In the series against Cleveland the Warriors got down 2-1 by losing game 2 at home by 2 points and game 3 in Cleveland by 5 points. In game 4 in Cleveland the Warriors won going away by 21 points. Last night in game 5 at home the Warriors won by 13, running away from Cleveland in the last 4-5 minutes of the game.

    Memphis, Houston and Cleveland, at home, have all been blown out by the Warriors. In the five losses suffered by the Warriors in the playoffs they have lost by 7 and 10 to Memphis in games 2 & 3 of that series, by 13 to Houston in game 4 of that series and by 2 and 5 to Cleveland in games 2 and 3 of that series. Golden State won games 4,5 and 6 of the Memphis series by 17, 20 and 13 points to win the series 4-2. Golden State had two close wins at home against Houston in games 1 and 2, blew Houston out by 35 in game 3, lost a meaningless game 4 by 13 and won the series in game 5 by 14 points.

    In the series with Cleveland Golden State fell behind 2-1 (games 1-3 could have gone either way). Since then Golden State has won 2 in a row by 21 and by 13.

    Golden State seems to play better after the first 2-3 games of a series. Playing on the road does not appear to be a big obstacle to them playing well.

    So with the above said, it would not surprise me to see a very close game 6 and a possible road win by the Warriors.




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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Another interesting statistic pertinent to the depth of the Warriors roster and the lack of depth of the Cleveland roster is that in the last three games of the series (games 3, 4 and 5) the Warriors have outscored the Cavs 94-60.

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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cavs fight to the end and were done in by their first quarter turnovers and some early sloppy play.

    don't mistake this as sour grapes, but I have to believe that if the Cavs hadn't lost Love and Irving things would have been different. I was thinking on the way into work this morning that in the Big Three Sports quite often the Champion is the one who can stay healthy through the course of a long, grueling season. with Basketball it is even more crucial --- the Cavs lost 40% of their starting lineup!!! that's comparable to nine starters in Football and almost the entire infield in Baseball. to lose that during the playoffs and still push a team like Golden State is remarkable.

    hat's off to the new NBA Champion Golden State Warriors!!!image
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    SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 11,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Congrats to the Cavs. They played their tails off. Next year with healthy players in Irving and Love, watch out.

    As for the Warriors this year's team was blessed in everyway. Karma, the stars, and good fortune smiled on them all year. Add in an amazing roster of talented players who checked their egos at the gym door. Add in great coaching. Add in great defense. Add in high octane offense. Mix it all together and you have the 2015 champions. Hats off to the Dubs for a very entertaining season.

    How about a rematch next June with both teams fully healthy?
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    jeffcbayjeffcbay Posts: 8,948 ✭✭✭✭
    Funny thing is GS almost lost against a team who only has two of their starters.
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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,163 ✭✭✭✭✭
    An incredible 2015 season for the Warriors. For such an inexperienced bunch, they sure knew how to turn it up when their backs were against the wall. Down 1-2 against both Memphis & Cleveland and they ran off three straight to end each series. They play a brand of basketball that is hella fun to watch, and I seriously doubt there will be another 40-year gap in between championships.

    I felt for LeBron tonight. Clearly, he was coasting into the gas station. The dude deserves to go sleep for about a week. We'll eventually look back at this series and marvel at how competitive he made it with his surrounding guard play after Irving went down. Speaking of which, when he and Love come back healthy, that team will be formidable for years to come. LeBron will get his before it's all said and done.

    I love me some Steph Curry, but I was happy to see Iggy win the MVP.
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    GS beat Lebron playing on a high school team. They should be so proud.
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    JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Golden State was the best team in the NBA all season. There is no reason to think they wouldn't have beat a healthy Cav's team. Injuries are part of the game. Deal with it

    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Injuries are part of the game. Deal with it

    Mark this has been a very congenial thread, maybe save the attitude for US forum. Geez!!

    back to injuries, though, I was surprised that they allowed Klay to play so soon and I was stunned that Curry wasn't seriously injured in his fall. that one was scary!!! I also thought LeBron was done with the cut to head. before the camera showed the cut he had brought his hand down and when I saw blood I thought gone and series over.
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