1979 Topps Rack Box - Signs of a Correction

Nikklos

Made a half-hearted last minute attempt at BBG's BBCE-wrapped 1979 baseball rack box on EBay. Finally went for $2226. Definitely seeing prices dropping on unopened from this era.

BBCE has one listed for $3950. I have never seen Steve drop prices on existing items on the website. Wonder if we will ever see that.

Disclaimer: I have a vested interest in seeing a drop in unopened prices!

MantleFan23

I was watching that too and was a bit surprised by the ending price. However, in general, at least when it comes to 1979, there has been a drop in prices as of late on realized sales of wax, cello, and rack.

Jeremy

Nikklos

What was the phrase the seller used to use? Well, this box is certainly going to help fulfill someone's collecting desires. lol

grote15

The market for 1979 unopened was bound to soften a bit after such a sharp run up in pricing. Don't forget a 79 rack box was $750 just a few years ago, so even at $2,200+, you're looking at a healthy markup.

Nikklos

True Tim. We may well end up seeing $750 again.

MantleFan23

I wonder if the box comes with its own set of blue gloves?

MantleFan23

double post

KurtisJoseph

$2200 is still a pretty good deal for whoever won. That's $92/rack with 8 stars showing.

ndleo

There seemed to be a lot of quality 1979 product coming to market over a short period of time. The market will absorb it. I doubt there will be a crash. The demand for unopened vintage is still strong.

grote15

<< <i>There seemed to be a lot of quality 1979 product coming to market over a short period of time. The market will absorb it. I doubt there will be a crash. The demand for unopened vintage is still strong. >>



Agreed. The market has come off its peak but is still strong. I will guarantee we won't see anything close to $750 again, lol.

Unknown

This content has been removed.

esquiresports

Man, I would have been all over this. Didn't notice the odd end time. With my 5x eBay bucks, I'd be looking at about $2K net. I snooze, I lose.

flatfoot816

BBCE has one listed for $3950. I have never seen Steve drop prices on existing items on the website. Wonder if we will ever see that.

pjb103183

1977-1980 unopened is way overpriced imo, considering the amount of product floating around...this holds especially true for 1979 bb wax...there seems to be an abundace of wax trays especially

Dboneesq

<< <i>Man, I would have been all over this. Didn't notice the odd end time. With my 5x eBay bucks, I'd be looking at about $2K net. I snooze, I lose. >>


I believe the 5xs is limited to $100.00 per item.

grote15

<< <i>1977-1980 unopened is way overpriced imo, considering the amount of product floating around...this holds especially true for 1979 bb wax...there seems to be an abundace of wax trays especially >>



I would exclude 77 from that span as product from that year is still tougher to find vs 78-80. 78 has more appeal also because it's a more popular issue/set but retail pricing for 79-80 has definitely softened a bit, though it is that span that also showed the most appreciation, percentage wise, too, so in that sense you could say it was not entirely unexpected.

baz518

<< <i>Man, I would have been all over this. Didn't notice the odd end time. With my 5x eBay bucks, I'd be looking at about $2K net. I snooze, I lose. >>



Usually the eBay Bucks offers are capped at $100 per transaction and $500 (I think) per quarter... so not as bad as you thought.

But pre 78 is definitely a different story than post. While 76 and 77 don't necessarily have great rookie crops, they are so much rarer in the unopened market than 78 and up... and even 75s. 76 Topps BB and 87 Fleer BK remind me so much of each other.

rcmb3220

<< <i>

<< <i>Man, I would have been all over this. Didn't notice the odd end time. With my 5x eBay bucks, I'd be looking at about $2K net. I snooze, I lose. >>



Usually the eBay Bucks offers are capped at $100 per transaction and $500 (I think) per quarter... so not as bad as you thought.

But pre 78 is definitely a different story than post. While 76 and 77 don't necessarily have great rookie crops, they are so much rarer in the unopened market than 78 and up... and even 75s. 76 Topps BB and 87 Fleer BK remind me so much of each other. >>



Topps Really cut production in 76 it seems. I wonder what the story was? Was it the economy or did they eat a lot of returns because the standard and mini competed for sales? Or maybe they didn't accept returns and that left retailers with piles of unsold 75s well into 76 so they cut back new orders.

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Man, I would have been all over this. Didn't notice the odd end time. With my 5x eBay bucks, I'd be looking at about $2K net. I snooze, I lose. >>



Usually the eBay Bucks offers are capped at $100 per transaction and $500 (I think) per quarter... so not as bad as you thought.

But pre 78 is definitely a different story than post. While 76 and 77 don't necessarily have great rookie crops, they are so much rarer in the unopened market than 78 and up... and even 75s. 76 Topps BB and 87 Fleer BK remind me so much of each other. >>



Topps Really cut production in 76 it seems. I wonder what the story was? Was it the economy or did they eat a lot of returns because the standard and mini competed for sales? Or maybe they didn't accept returns and that left retailers with piles of unsold 75s well into 76 so they cut back new orders. >>



I would love to know the story behind this as well. It is very frustrating that there is no public data from Topps stating how much was produced year to year. Does anyone feel the PSA Pop report could be evolving into a source to give us a feel for that?

Just took a quick look at the numbers from 1970-1980 Topps:

1970 159K
1971 225K
1972 207K
1973 140K
1974 155K
1975 219K
1975 Mini 82K
1976 110K
1977 77K
1978 129K
1979 75K
1980 78K

Those numbers reflect the popularity of the sets with collectors as much as anything, but I think the 1976 set is pretty popular. Yet, it's got half the pop as the 1975 set. And we still see a lot of 1975 Cellos and Racks out there. And the 1977 set has an awfully low pop. Could that at all be an indicator as to how much was produced or is it strictly based on collectors interest in grading them for the Set Registry or for the potential rate of return?

ElToroLoco

<< <i>Made a half-hearted last minute attempt at BBG's BBCE-wrapped 1979 baseball rack box on EBay. Finally went for $2226. Definitely seeing prices dropping on unopened from this era.

BBCE has one listed for $3950. I have never seen Steve drop prices on existing items on the website. Wonder if we will ever see that.

Disclaimer: I have a vested interest in seeing a drop in unopened prices! >>



1980 Topps Wax Box
Yesterday: $1150
Today: $950

grote15

I think the pop report is based more on rate of return and condition sensitivity vs actual production numbers. 1976 is a popular set, but the vast majority of Mint 9 cards retail for less than it costs to grade them (with some obvious exceptions, of course).

There is no question that 1975 is fairly plentiful vs 1976. Although Topps never published any hard production numbers, my speculation is that a lot of 1975 product went unsold due to the rise in price for packs~10c vs 15c for wax packs and 39c vs 49c for racks~and a decrease in card count for cello packs at the same 25c price~22 vs 18, which resulted in lower production totals for 1976. I believe such a phenomenon is also partially the reason for the decrease (and resulting scarcity) of 1971 product, at least in comparison to 1970, when the price per pack doubled from 5c to 10c.

Mefer

I think we have to be cognizant too of the fact that unlike other vintage collectibles, vintage unopened literally disappears due to it being open. By how much is anyone's guess but it is a wildcard that, in my view, makes predicting future value of unopened a little more difficult.

slum22

That is a very low realized price on that box. I wasn't watching the item. If I would have known the box was for sale I might have set a snipe that could have beat that winning price. The winner did well. You can't predict macroeconomic shifts, but that looks to be a floor price on that box IMO. I would buy boxes all day at that price.

slum22

I do think that prices on late 70's BB unopened have settled and corrected from their highs. After the huge run up I think that could be expected. I stopped buying when prices were peaking, but I am more willing to jump into some purchases with prices now and certainly if they drop more.

I do wonder why the low price on this box. I would have guessed the box sold easily in the $2800-3000 range especially if it ended on a bonus eBay bucks day.

I wonder if the seller played some role in this. I know he was a past member here that didn't end on good terms and I wonder if some people avoided the box. I know there are some sellers I won't buy from even if it is a card or box I want because I just won't do business with people I think are actively hurting the hobby (my example was Bruingirl had listed an empty box that I wanted for my collection. I passed because I didn't want to do business with a known resealer).

Perhaps another reason the box went low was because there was too much information. I noticed there was a notation on the BBCE label of individual racks with stars showing. I believe there were 8 all on back. It seems from a collation standpoint unlikely that 8 racks with stars on back would show up while none were on top. I wonder if the idea of a cobbled box, even one with stars showing, was a turn off to prospective buyers. Some of the allure of unopened is in not knowing what is possible. As unlikely as it is, could there be an Ozzie showing? Or another HOFer? When the mystery is removed I wonder if some of the unopened premium is lost as well. It seems silly but I think I would have been more excited opening the box and seeing the stars on the packs than I would be knowing ahead of time that they are there.

ClockworkAngel

Is anyone else having issues seeing responses in this thread?

cpamike

<< <i>Is anyone else having issues seeing responses in this thread? >>



Linky to Page 2

Edited to add: Looks like my post fixed it for now, LOL.

spazzy

I do see an increase of bbce boxes being listed on buy/sell recently boards. The prices will go up in the future but for now they have seemed to drop back a bit. The 80s stuff is not rare in regular issue topps

grote15

I also think that the notion that a full box is suddenly worth a lot more than the sum of its parts may be a bit misguided, too, especially when box is not FASC. 79 racks retail for $100 these days, so while $2,200 is a good price, it's not too far off retail, imo.

Stone193

I would say if prices are softening?

Consider buying if one wants wax/racks/vending from this era.

ndleo

I may regret posting this, but would it be better to sell x12 1979 BB Wax Trays or 1 1979 BB Wax Box? I think a box brings is more per pack than the wax trays.

grote15

<< <i>I may regret posting this, but would it be better to sell x12 1979 BB Wax Trays or 1 1979 BB Wax Box? I think a box brings is more per pack than the wax trays. >>



Unless the wax box is from a sealed case, there is still a small premium for the wax trays, though it's not nearly as significant as it is for other years due to availability of trays from 1979.

smallstocks

1975 was the first year I ever remember sellers with complete sets available to buy. I personally stopped buying packs that year and bought completed sets in 1975 - 1978 before I became a Topps dealer in 1979 and 1980 and sold collated sets myself (collated from vending).

I bought so many cards from wax, cello and vending before then that I had compiled tons of doubles and triples in my pursuit of completing the set. Possibly this is also a factor in explaining why the populations starting decreasing - less overall demand from kids.

rtimmer

I've seen the unopened market rise to where I buy less now than I did 4 years ago but I think part of my slow down is psychological not wanting to pay double for what I used to etc. But with the scarcity especially of some products I do see any price drops as temporary and a good time to pick some nice stuff up.

I am also thinking of selling a couple things now that prices have climbed but mostly so that I could buy other things I covet more for my collection not because I think prices have topped. For example I loved both '74 baseball and basketball but basketball more and bought this baseball box to sell when I could get $10,000 for it. I'm not sure if we are there yet, we could be or are very close, but in looking for comparison sales I haven't seen any in the last 6 months and much longer for an actually high graded nice protected box example. Is 1974 that scare compared to '78 & '79, that my perspective.

runningman

I have noticed lately that a lot of the box prices are not that strong. I've been after a 1983 Topps rack case for quite a while and still haven't even see one offered. I wonder if these "softening" of prices, if that is indeed the case will hold true at the National this summer.

galaxy27

bubble's '79 racker laden with HoFers/stars & a LOA from hell went for this much.

lahmejoon

<< <i>

<< <i>bubble's '79 racker laden with HoFers/stars & a LOA from hell went for this much. >>



I think quite a few people refuse to do business with BBG! >>



^^^I'm in this camp.

flatfoot816

much more reasonable sale of a '79 rack box. I agree with Slum that the seller's rep had a lot to do with it--

Collect Auctions '79 BB rack box

and BTW--strong prices across the board on all the unopened items in the auction

grote15

I'll say one thing. Collect Auctions and REA command some amazing hammer prices!

But we still had next to no interest on this board for filling slots from BBCE for late 70s product at those prices, so the reality is actually somewhere in between, with regard to market value.

gemint

<< <i>I'll say one thing. Collect Auctions and REA command some amazing hammer prices!

But we still had next to no interest on this board for filling slots from BBCE for late 70s product at those prices, so the reality is actually somewhere in between, with regard to market value. >>



I think @collect gets such strong prices because people know the product is coming from the Fritsch vault.

grote15

<< <i>

<< <i>I'll say one thing. Collect Auctions and REA command some amazing hammer prices!

But we still had next to no interest on this board for filling slots from BBCE for late 70s product at those prices, so the reality is actually somewhere in between, with regard to market value. >>



I think @collect gets such strong prices because people know the product is coming from the Fritsch vault. >>



I think that is correct to an extent, John, though I have heard some mixed results about the vending.

For me, case (or box) fresh product is the important thing,.

Stone193

I saved this auction to post - 79T rack

Porkins

<< <i>I'll say one thing. Collect Auctions and REA command some amazing hammer prices! >>



I'll say!!!

ETA: Just saw the other thread addressing the Collect Auction as a whole. Moving to there

Time4aGansett

<< <i>

<< <i>I'll say one thing. Collect Auctions and REA command some amazing hammer prices!

But we still had next to no interest on this board for filling slots from BBCE for late 70s product at those prices, so the reality is actually somewhere in between, with regard to market value. >>



I think @collect gets such strong prices because people know the product is coming from the Fritsch vault. >>



Or perhaps it is from collectors who aren't on this board or have no idea who BBCE is.

ldferg

Looks like the last 2 from BBCE are history. Wow!!