1802 half dime provenance (top 9 specimens)

yosclimber · February 7, 2015 1:02PM

I've attempted to extend the 1802 half dime provenance work of David J. Davis (1998) to include the latest auction results,
in a simple Excel file.

Here are screen shots of the list for the top 9 specimens:

It would be great if some of our local half dime experts & fans could take a look.
Additions and corrections would be most welcome!

Note: in 2017, Jon P. Amato released a book which covers more than just the top 9:
Numismatic Background and Census of 1802 Half Dimes: A Classic American Rarity (Ivy Press, 2017).
https://www.coinbooks.org/v20/esylum_v20n20a02.html
Pete Smith also created an Addenda to this list:
https://www.coinbooks.org/v21/esylum_v21n02a03.html

MrHalfDime · February 7, 2015 9:50PM

Very nice. I will be sure to look it over carefully. Is this something that you plan to continue with?

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 4:01AM

Thanks for checking it out - I was hoping you would see it!
Yes, I plan to update it (note the partially filled row for the Pogue sale specimen).

I also plan to add a price graph which tracks the individual specimens over time,
once I'm a bit more confident that the basic data are correct.
Like the one I made for 1913 Liberty nickels:

CoinJunkie · February 8, 2015 4:41AM

Interesting data. Thanks for compiling and posting it.

LoveMyLiberty · February 8, 2015 5:09AM

yosclimber--- Very nice work. Thank you for showing it.

I wanted to look at "Mom's apron order" but it was
encrypted.

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 5:14AM

Thanks.

<< I wanted to look at "Mom's apron order" but it was encrypted.

>>

?? Not sure what that is (a joke, I guess, but I didn't get it?)

LoveMyLiberty · February 8, 2015 6:46AM

<< Thanks.

<< I wanted to look at "Mom's apron order" but it was encrypted.

>>

?? Not sure what that is (a joke, I guess, but I didn't get it?) >>

PM sent.

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 8:27AM

Apron mystery somewhat solved, thanks.
No moms or aprons were traded for 1802s, trust me. :-)

tradedollarnut · February 8, 2015 9:12AM

<< Thanks for checking it out - I was hoping you would see it!
Yes, I plan to update it (note the partially filled row for the Pogue sale specimen).

I also plan to add a price graph which tracks the individual specimens over time,
once I'm a bit more confident that the basic data are correct.
Like the one I made for 1913 Liberty nickels:

>>

Straight lines on a log graph - now where have I seen that before.

coindeuce · February 8, 2015 9:29AM

Could this be a lead in for an announcement on the specimen that allegedly was bought out of the UK recently

Ring any bells ?

Also, I will humbly point out that yosclimber has placed the names of prior/current owners of 1802 half dimes in the spread sheet column labeled as sellers. A minor point, but for accuracy of the purpose intended by the OP, they should be named as owners/sellers.

Interesting POV from here - prices on the Garrett specimen have been relegated to secrecy since 1986 - nearly 30 years.

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 9:46AM

<< Straight lines on a log graph - now where have I seen that before. >>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot ? :-)

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 9:49AM

<< Could this be a lead in for an announcement on the specimen that allegedly was bought out of the UK recently >>

Not intended as such. I have no info on that allegation.
I was just trying to trace forward the handful of nicer specimens from the 1998 book list to the auctions and photos of the recent years.

tradedollarnut · February 8, 2015 9:52AM

<< 

<< Straight lines on a log graph - now where have I seen that before. >>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot ? :-) >>

See Graph for 1794 $1 here

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 9:56AM

Yeah, the 1794 $1 graph looks like a pretty good fit (i.e. constant percent change in nominal price).

Although with these data (infrequent prices), the graph might make things look smoother than they would look if these coins traded hands more often.
I.e. we see a long straight line between points which might visually dominate the actual data points.

It will be fun to see if the 1802 half dime graph is also a fairly straight fit.
It spans a much longer time period but the specimens are also infrequently traded.

coindeuce · February 8, 2015 10:06AM

Is the location of the A-t-w-a-t-e-r specimen known today ?

tradedollarnut · February 8, 2015 10:08AM

Atwater?

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 10:19AM

This is the full At-water section, from public info. [hyphen inserted to avoid "forbidden word" filter]
I don't know who owns it at present.
I imagine a few people do know, although I am not trying to publish confidential info.

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 10:30AM

@coindeuce:

<< Also, I will humbly point out that yosclimber has placed the names of prior/current owners of 1802 half dimes in the spread sheet column labeled as sellers. A minor point, but for accuracy of the purpose intended by the OP, they should be named as owners/sellers. >>

It would probably be clearer have separate columns for the "former owner" and "buyer" for each sale, but I didn't want to duplicate the names each time.
E.g.
former owner , buyer
A, B
B, C
C, D
etc.
The "venue" column should list the firm hosting the sale. They also could be thought of as the seller.
Is this what you meant?

coindeuce · February 8, 2015 10:46AM

<< @coindeuce:

<< Also, I will humbly point out that yosclimber has placed the names of prior/current owners of 1802 half dimes in the spread sheet column labeled as sellers. A minor point, but for accuracy of the purpose intended by the OP, they should be named as owners/sellers. >>

It would probably be clearer have separate columns for the "former owner" and "buyer" for each sale, but I didn't want to duplicate the names each time.
E.g.
former owner , buyer
A, B
B, C
C, D
etc.
The "venue" column should list the firm hosting the sale. They also could be thought of as the seller.
Is this what you meant? >>

Sort of. On some of the lines naming seller of various specimens, the venue line corresponding is blank, indicating to me that the sale was conducted privately, rather than by consignment.

coindeuce · February 8, 2015 10:51AM

<< Atwater? >>

I see that you have a different workaround for the profanity filter of CU's dinosaur software.

planonit · February 8, 2015 1:11PM

<< Could this be a lead in for an announcement on the specimen that allegedly was bought out of the UK recently

Ring any bells ?

Also, I will humbly point out that yosclimber has placed the names of prior/current owners of 1802 half dimes in the spread sheet column labeled as sellers. A minor point, but for accuracy of the purpose intended by the OP, they should be named as owners/sellers.

Interesting POV from here - prices on the Garrett specimen have been relegated to secrecy since 1986 - nearly 30 years. >>

I was thinking the same thing.

Coincidence?? I think NOT!

It would be super cool if somebody actually got an 1802 Half Dime from Ebay.

coindeuce · February 8, 2015 1:26PM

The current PCGS census of 1802 H10c. is a total of 11, ranging from Poor/AG to AU. No Mint State examples recorded.
The current NGC census of 1802 H10c. is a total of 2, in AU-50. And it is conceivable that either census could be skewed by upgrade / crossover-upgrade attempts.

Anyone know if these are unchanged in recent weeks ?

yosclimber · February 8, 2015 2:17PM

Greg Reynolds (aka Analyst on this forum) wrote a good article in 2007 which was one of the cited sources for my version of the provenance:
http://www.coinlink.com/CoinGuide/rarity-of-the-week/where-are-the-finest-1802-half-dimes/
In the article he speculated that the Garrett specimen is a PCGS AU-55, which has since been confirmed by private communication.
The current PCGS Population Report has a count of 2 for AU-55, but this is in error (actual count is 1).
The error occurred when the Newlin-Garrett specimen was reholdered with an updated provenance label.
Despite attempts by the owner to correct the error, the database is currently still saying 2.

The rest of the current population looks like it has been fairly carefully swept of most of the resubmissions.
The current PCGS population for grades VF and higher is something like this:
AU-55 1. AU Garrett (counted twice in the Population Report)
AU-50 2. AU Valentine
EF-45 4. EF Black (now in Simpson registry set)
EF-40 has not appeared in auctions. Might be 6. EF Eliasberg or 7. EF Dupont
VF-35 could be one of these coins since upgraded: 2. AU Valentine (now AU-50) or 4. EF Black (now EF-45)
VF-30 8. VF Lawrence

[Edited 2/9 to explain the PCGS AU-55 Population Report error]

yosclimber · February 9, 2015 4:19AM

I have updated the above post based on information I just received by PM from a Forum member.

There is only one PCGS AU-55 1802 half dime, and it is the Newlin-Garrett specimen.

coindeuce · February 9, 2015 4:23AM

yosclimber, what do you make of the duo of AU50's in the NGC census ? Could it be that the At[water/] specimen has been resubmitted once ?

yosclimber · February 9, 2015 4:57AM

Greg Reynolds' 2007 article (linked above) stated the NGC census included 3 AU-50 , but it is down to 2 now.

These 2 are:
3. EF At-water NGC AU-50
5. EF/VF+ Pittman NGC AU-50

Are you able to view the Excel file?
I could post a combined screen shot which shows the whole list.

Analyst · February 15, 2015 8:01AM

1) LoveMyLiberty: <<- Very nice work. Thank you for showing it.>>

Agreed, the research embodied in this work is very impressive.

2) I believe that the Parm-Atw-JAS, NGC graded AU-50 1802 was recently offered by the Goldbergs. I remember seeing it and liking it in 2011. Have any of the other members of this forum viewed it? Would anyone hazard to guess as to why it does not have a green bean?

3) Parrino showed me a few during the 1990s, including a nice one that was PCGS graded 30 or 35, which Parrino said had earlier been in the Virgil Brand Collection. An interesting question is whether this is the coin that is now in the Simpson Collection?

YOSclimber: <<pale golden (or gun metal / rose) luster>>

Did YOS see the Simpson 1802 in reality, or does this remark about this coin's appearance stem from an interpretation of a picture? The coin on my mind, which might not be same, was more of a russet color.

4) Was the Menjou-Ebsen 1802 really owned by either Menjou or Ebsen? We should ask Rich if he has seen his former 1802 since his collection was auctioned.

Rich Uhrich Collection

5) YOSclimber: <<Yes, I plan to update it (note the partially filled row for the Pogue sale specimen)>>

This spreadsheet seems to give the impression that HA will auction the Gardner-Pogue 1802. Stack's-Bowers, not Heritage, will offer it in May:

The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 1: Finest 1796 – ’97 Draped Bust Half Dollar

yosclimber · February 15, 2015 5:11PM

Thanks for sharing your great comments!
Always the best to have an expert look through.

<< 2) I believe that the Parm-Atw-JAS, NGC graded AU-50 1802 was recently offered by the Goldbergs. >>

I checked and you are correct - their sale on 1/25-28/2015. Although it went unsold.
http://images.goldbergauctions.com/php/lot_auc.php?site=1&sale=84&lot=1145&lang=1

I also found it listed as recently sold (1/12/2015) on the U.S. Rare Coin Investments website:
http://www.usrarecoininvestments.com/coins_for_sale/1802-draped-bust-half-dime-ngc-au50-2117931_6357_d.htm
I updated the list accordingly.
This also partly answers the question raised upthread about its (recent) whereabouts.
One potentially curious observation is that the NGC serial number of this specimen has changed.

<< I remember seeing it and liking it in 2011.

Have any of the other members of this forum viewed it? Would anyone hazard to guess as to why it does not have a green bean? >>

Hopefully someone who has seen it can share their thoughts.

<< 3) Parrino showed me a few during the 1990s, including a nice one that was PCGS graded 30 or 35, which Parrino said had earlier been in the Virgil Brand Collection. An interesting question is whether this is the coin that is now in the Simpson Collection? >>

It seems likely, as this specimen was in a PCGS VF35 holder when it was offered at auction in 1989 (unsold), before Jay Parrino obtained it.
Davis has the provenance from Black through Parrino (Davis does not mention Brand), and I linked it to Simpson from the distinguishing marks listed.
Of course a potential complicating factor is that Parrino had more than one specimen, as you described in your 2007 article.

<< YOSclimber: <<pale golden (or gun metal / rose) luster>>
Did YOS see the Simpson 1802 in reality, or does this remark about this coin's appearance stem from an interpretation of a picture? The coin on my mind, which might not be same, was more of a russet color. >>

No, I have not seen it in person. I was quoting from the auction descriptions. I have seen the PCGS TrueView image, and russet is accurate.
The pale golden is from an earlier auction description; maybe it changed color?
http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/coinfacts.aspx?i=1790235&sid=122850

<< 4) Was the Menjou-Ebsen 1802 really owned by either Menjou or Ebsen? We should ask Rich if he has seen his former 1802 since his collection was auctioned.
Rich Uhrich Collection >>

Good question.
Menjou is listed in the David J. Davis article, as is Ebsen.
Although I believe your point is that some coins were put in the Ebsen sale which Ebsen did not own.

<< 5) YOSclimber: <<Yes, I plan to update it (note the partially filled row for the Pogue sale specimen)>>

This spreadsheet seems to give the impression that HA will auction the Gardner-Pogue 1802. Stack's-Bowers, not Heritage, will offer it in May:

The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 1: Finest 1796 – ’97 Draped Bust Half Dollar >>

Oops. I corrected this goof and uploaded the new version. Thanks!

jdimmick · February 16, 2015 3:45AM

If I am not mistaken
One of our forum members owns or did own the vf30 Lawrence coin
But at the time he aquired it he wanted to keep it confidential
This has been a few years back because he told me he thought that he had gotten a good price after the now Pogue coin went for 299 when jct bought it. I have not seen him post here in a long time so I don't know if he still has it

BillJones · February 16, 2015 5:29AM

More than 20 years a Long Island, New York coin dealer had an 1802 half dime that was in a PCGS EF-45 or AU-50, I forget which. It does not seem to be on this list. He wanted $100,000 for it. The piece was darkly toned as I remember it, but it was attractive. I'm guessing it was a consignment piece and that he did not sell it.

About three years ago Harry Laibstain had one that was in a PCGS VF-30 holder. It was my understanding that Jim McGuigan had a financial interest in the coin. The asking price was $139.000. I didn't particually care for the piece because I thought it had some damage on the reverse. It later later sold or went through a auction at that price.

yosclimber · February 16, 2015 5:40AM

<< The piece was darkly toned as I remember it, but it was attractive. >>

The Black specimen (now Simpson) is somewhat dark toned, and PCGS EF45:

Did you rule this one out for some reason?

The only PCGS VF30 on the list is what I called the Lawrence, and I haven't seen a reverse image for it.

yosclimber · February 18, 2015 7:29PM

A graph of the prices over time with a separate line for each specimen.

I'm seeing:
1. Higher annual growth rate in prices, post-World War II
2. Some losses when held only a few years
(like Rick Snow pointed out, you may be selling to the previous underbidder,
and if a new strong underbidder has not emerged in the meantime, the price is not pushed up as high)
3. Those losses could also be viewed as price corrections - when the price had spiked above the main grouped line of points,
and made a correction back to near the line again.

1802 half dime provenance (top 9 specimens)

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