Crackout Specialist - revised!

Bankerbob56

After going 1 for 8 on upgrade attempts (submitted in holder), I was curious as to what grade level will the crackout specialists draw the line? If you have an ms67 coin which you think might be a plus coin, or maybe even a 68, do you crackout the coin or submit it in holder?

Also, do the graders know the existing grade when a coin is re-submitted in holder?

Thanks!

coindeuce

Nice sigline. Maybe a good place to start here is learning the process for editing an existing thread.

LindeDad

It's not grade changes that make crack outs happen it's value changes.
And supposedly no they do not know it's covered.

stealer

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Type2

I have one now it's in a PC MS62 holder and worh $7k to$9k but in a MS63 holder it go's to $30k but in a MS61 holder it go's to $4k so I will keep my coin in the holder and resubmit to try to get the bump. The only way I try a crack out a coin is when I know it will up grade or needs some help and I can't lose.

BryceM

..... my reply copied from the original, duplicate thread:

Your question is overly simplistic. One submission of eight coins is scarcely enough to draw conclusions from, especially if you were just shooting from the hip. Are we talking about million dollar early Bust rarities or ten dollar Lincoln proofs from a couple of years ago? Are we talking about heavily counterfeited issues or coins that might be on the fence due to due to an old light cleaning or questionable color?

Many crackout guys are well financed and run operations on a scale that would astonish many people. For them, cracking out a few dozen 4 and 5 figure coins would be just another day at the office. They hold to their own experience and judgement when it comes to deciding what represents an acceptable risk. They good ones have decades of experience and know the game better than almost anyone else. The starting grade is just one of a dozen things they consider when deciding what to do with a particular coin.

Do the graders know the previous grade? I doubt it, but I'm sure the final reviewer does.

valente151

This isn't meant directly to the OP, but is my general belief overall. If you think a coin will upgrade, why are you worrying about it coming back a grade lower? If you are doubting it will even keep its original grade, then why send in for an upgrade. At that point it seems like its just a guessing game rather than a true analysis of the coin in hand. If I think a coin is undergraded, I crack and resubmit.

telephoto1

If you think a coin will upgrade, why are you worrying about it coming back a grade lower?

...because they aren't confident in their own grading skills and they fear that the TPG might just have overgraded it the first time...?

Bankerbob56

<< <i>Nice sigline. Maybe a good place to start here is learning the process for editing an existing thread. >>



My first thread had a technical glitch! It showed up without any text, so I tried again. The revised post also showed up without text! So I left the site. I just now saw that both threads posted with text intact! Thanks for your "help" and contribution to the thread!

lava

<< <i>This isn't meant directly to the OP, but is my general belief overall. If you think a coin will upgrade, why are you worrying about it coming back a grade lower? If you are doubting it will even keep its original grade, then why send in for an upgrade. At that point it seems like its just a guessing game rather than a true analysis of the coin in hand. If I think a coin is undergraded, I crack and resubmit. >>



Words of wisdom.

LanceNewmanOCC

<< <i>If you think a coin will upgrade, why are you worrying about it coming back a grade lower?

...because they aren't confident in their own grading skills and they fear that the TPG might just have overgraded it the first time...? >>



... because of the ridiculous amount of inconsistency from the tpgs. hundreds of examples in the archives. crack, submit, crack submit etc.

also, cracking a coin represents risk, no matter what. dropped, fingerprint, lost during submission, unfortunate rub from the flip, etc.
.

roadrunner

<< <i>This isn't meant directly to the OP, but is my general belief overall. If you think a coin will upgrade, why are you worrying about it coming back a grade lower? If you are doubting it will even keep its original grade, then why send in for an upgrade. At that point it seems like its just a guessing game rather than a true analysis of the coin in hand. If I think a coin is undergraded, I crack and resubmit. >>



There's no sure thing regardless of how good one think's their skills are. The coin will look different once cracked out where a strong light source can reveal every minute hairline, scuff, graze, and cut on the coin. Proofs in particular will look quite a bit different. You also get a better view of the edge. I mentioned in my other post that I thought I had a "guaranteed upgrade" in a PCGS MS64 $10 Lib that was a 65 or better on marks alone. No way that could come back lower. And it didn't. It came body bagged the next 2 times from PCGS and NGC. And then it went NGC MS66 on the next submission. In this case, even TPG's couldn't agree on a grade....how I was supposed to? I thought the coin was a no-brainer MS65. I could list many examples similar to this. They can always come back lower or not even graded. It's never about being 100% sure in either direction, only about the overall odds. If the odds are slightly in your favor on a highly leveraged upgrade, that's probably worth taking, even if only 1 out of 4 to 5 coins work out.

ricko

The crackout game is a gamble.... even for those with grading skills (as roadrunner pointed out). It increases the investment in a coin with no guarantee of return. For collectors, certainly not worth it.... for dealers/flippers.... maybe. Cheers, RickO

joebb21

I know of coins that have been submitted over 30 times over a 2 year period.
eventually they made the upgrade.