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30 Year US Bonds at 2.43%
MGLICKER
Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
Wonder if the fed will want to jawbone the rate lower to stimulate the economy. 
So what tricks does Janet have left in her Louis Vuitton handbag to bring us back off the brink?
So what tricks does Janet have left in her Louis Vuitton handbag to bring us back off the brink?
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All is well, isn't it?
"Political-correctness in analysis is killing us. It certainly is reducing our ability to survive what awaits us ahead." - Martin Armstrng
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>What brink?
All is well, isn't it?
"Political-correctness in analysis is killing us. It certainly is reducing our ability to survive what awaits us ahead." - Martin Armstrng >>
True, almost full employment and cheap gas. All is looking up now in Utopiaville.
<< <i>True, almost full employment and cheap gas. All is looking up now in Utopiaville. >>
And don't forget an "affordable" health care plan in every pot.
So they bail you in. Deposit will become the bank's property when they fail.
Box of 20
I think the low was 1.44%
So they bail you in. Deposit will become the bank's property when they fail.
Capital goes where it is treated best. Problem is, it's not being treated well anywhere. Gold may benefit from the mistreatment as people get tired of the poor treatment. In the meantime, money keeps disappearing down some rathole.
Better keyboard another batch.
Except that's been proven not to work.
We live in interesting times.
I knew it would happen.
And putting 1 million in the bank puts your account over the FDIC 250K limit so doing it leaves 750K un-insured.
Some foreign countries are paying negative interest on their bonds.
The fact that people are willing to accept nothing to safely store their money tells me they're expecting a crash in everything else.
Bonds go negative
Box of 20
rates are still declining.
Any hint of inflation is still years away and the US Treasury markets accurately reflect this.
I have been a bull on stocks since 2009 but turning bearish now. It has been a great party
but when the lights come on and the cleanup crew is running the vacuums, I want to
be somewhere else.
I remember that the post WW2 bull market ended in Jan 1973.
". . . there is a glut of supply and too little demand from consumers. Such a supply-demand imbalance brings about price wars."
"Our nation’s problem is clearly not one of an overheating economy but one of massive income and wealth inequality. When income distribution becomes insanely skewed to the top 10 percent, deflation is the inevitable outcome. To express it another way, when workers are stripped of an adequate share of the profits of their productive labors on behalf of the corporation, they can’t consume an adequate amount of the corporate output. Supply gluts develop and deflation follows."
In other words, as the middle class shrinks, so does demand for consumer goods - particularly those not considered a necessity. Deflation is further evidence the middle class is shrinking.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Look at oil, a change in supply that wasn't a huge one by percent still pushed the price much lower.
QE bought bonds with long terms so bonds that were bought with QE are still held by the Fed and were not thrown into the market and are still out of the market. In proportion it's probably a bigger change in the supply (of bonds offered to bond buyers) than the change in oil supply that brought oil prices down.
Couple that with low rates and currencies dropping in value around the world pushing those people/countries into buying US bonds and less total bonds in the market because of QE, more bond buyers keeps bond values up and interest rates down.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Deflation is good for the middle class. >>
It's very good for those with a job. The price of deflation is jobs. Just ask Texas. Jobs are what make most citizens eligible to be considered middle class. Less jobs, less middle class.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
harder to repay, the value of their house declines.
Deflation is good for holders of US Treasury notes and bonds. Deflation is good
for insured bank depositors.
Mild deflation, like we have right now, is good for shareowners.
We have seen that since 2009.
Keep dreaming if you think that the cost of living is going to decline in 2015.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Deflation is good for the middle class. >>
tens of thousands of unemployed middle class oil industry workers would disagree.
9,000 at Schlumberger alone
Deflation is good for those who have an income, however for those who get to keep a paycheck it will eventually reduce that income, either in dollars or hours. Lower prices are always good for consumers, but those consumers need income and not one that has been drastically reduced to an entitlement.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>Deflation is good for the middle class. >>
tens of thousands of unemployed middle class oil industry workers would disagree.
9,000 at Schlumberger alone
Deflation is good for those who have an income, however for those who get to keep a paycheck it will eventually reduce that income, either in dollars or hours. Lower prices are always good for consumers, but those consumers need income and not one that has been drastically reduced to an entitlement. >>
How many of those workers were hired because oil was "artificially"
And whether one is employed or unemployed, they are still a consumer. Would you rather be unemployed (retired) during inflationary or deflationary times?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Would you rather be unemployed (retired) during inflationary or deflationary times? >>
I would rather be unemployed (retired) during a time of competent governance as opposed to this reckless and slipshod monetary policy.
<< <i>Have not yet seen this deflation yet that you folks speak of. Yes, at the gasoline pump and on select commodity type groceries but not at the supermarket at large or on rents, utilities, medical care, tuition, ammo, autos, air fares, shipping,.........etc.
Keep dreaming if you think that the cost of living is going to decline in 2015. >>
I flew across the country for $165 one-way last month. How much lower you want airfare to go? My cell phone bill is lower than a year ago. I've been able to buy .22 ammo recently.
A year ago you kept ranting about high gasoline and "select commodity type groceries", ie, almonds. Now prices are down, per your admission. So better to find something else to gripe about? I've never met your lady friend, but I imagine she is a saint.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I've never met your lady friend, but I imagine she is a saint. >>
Why the personal shots, Cohodk? First you are commenting on my not having children and now you want to bring my girlfriend into the discussion. Roll up one of your charts and jam it up your As s.
Do you complain just to hear yourself complain? Im sure if you had kids you would have complained about its birth. WTF, man. Be happy for a change.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Im just saying anyone who spends so much time with someone who does nothing but complain must be a saint. I feel sorry for the woman. Forgive me my feelings.
Do you complain just to hear yourself complain? Im sure if you had kids you would have complained about its birth. WTF, man. Be happy for a change. >>
+1
<< <i>Forgive me my feelings. >>
Apology accepted Cohodk. Something got you riled up last night. It happens.
that is the buyers expressing their preference, and suppliers maximizing the profits by charging as much as the market will bear.
Sometimes, interested and large suppliers are able to maintain market share by squeezing smaller but higher quality producers on price by minimizing marginal costs per unit
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
May be dropping soon though as a large part of the consumer market got whacked with lower oil prices.
have almost constant sales. Eggo waffles as an example. Ben and Jerry's ice cream is another.
Dry cereal another item almost always on sale.
<< <i>Of all the foods I routinely eat during the course of a week NONE of them are priced lower this year than in previous years. In many cases they have gone up in price....a lot. This includes 3 lb bags of nuts, 3 lb bags of blueberries, soy milk, almond milk, fresh salmon from the fish market, granola-flax-pea proteins, spices, cheese, quality eggs, quality beef/chicken, vitamins, etc. Fruits and veggies have generally held their own and are priced about the same as in previous years. Dark chocolate too. But they aren't any cheaper. While milk, junk candy, McD & BK value menus, and other crap foods are cheap, I don't usually eat them. For how much we've seen oil, softs, and grains fall this year you wonder why prices aren't a lot cheaper all around. If the price is dropped, it's often associated with a smaller package. The price of the spices I buy has dropped a little (-10%), but the container shrunk from 5 to 4 oz (-20%). I suspect these 3 lb bags of nuts and fruit I buy will soon become 2lbs or 1lbs to hide further price increases. >>
We eat organic and non processed. It's expensive but we choose to do so. We cut elsewhere. Loving the price of gas right now. A nice offset
RR, love ya
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>As long as there is demand for fancy fruit and nuts the prices will rise. If I were a producer of such fine food I would promote the heck out the virtues of this excellent fare. And I would raise prices to near obscene. I know everyone will blame Bernanke or Obama and I will make a fortune. I will live the American Dream. >>
These ain't "fancy fruits or nuts" Cohodk, just plain old generic almonds, walnuts, spanish peanuts, and blueberries by the 3 lb container/bag. I cannot afford to buy them in the smaller 1/2 lb to 1 lb sizes. You can find the same quality at any large supermarket...just not in these bulk bag sizes at the price of the discount clubs. I also buy figs to eat with the nuts since they are very high in fiber....2-3 per day. The price of those is up 28% in the past 2 years.
Thanks MJ. Love ya back. Gas and heating oil being down is a nice plus, probably saved me $300-$500 in 2014. Unfortunately, that is somewhat offset by the cost of professional labor (roofers, tree cutters, burner techs, home repair/remodeling contractors, plumbers, electricians, auto techs, etc.). I've not seen any drops in prices from the contractor types I sometimes use.
<< <i>
<< <i>As long as there is demand for fancy fruit and nuts the prices will rise. If I were a producer of such fine food I would promote the heck out the virtues of this excellent fare. And I would raise prices to near obscene. I know everyone will blame Bernanke or Obama and I will make a fortune. I will live the American Dream. >>
These ain't "fancy fruits or nuts" Cohodk, just plain old generic almonds, walnuts, spanish peanuts, and blueberries by the 3 lb container/bag. I cannot afford to buy them in the smaller 1/2 lb to 1 lb sizes. You can find the same quality at any large supermarket...just not in these bulk bag sizes at the price of the discount clubs. I also buy figs to eat with the nuts since they are very high in fiber....2-3 per day. The price of those is up 28% in the past 2 years.
Thanks MJ. Love ya back. Gas and heating oil being down is a nice plus, probably saved me $300-$500 in 2014. Unfortunately, that is somewhat offset by the cost of professional labor (roofers, tree cutters, burner techs, home repair/remodeling contractors, plumbers, electricians, auto techs, etc.). I've not seen any drops in prices from the contractor types I sometimes use. >>
I have a GREAT handyman who does it all including watching the pups when we are away. He literally has done everything you just mentioned. You need to find your Juan
Happy New Year
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>As long as there is demand for fancy fruit and nuts the prices will rise. If I were a producer of such fine food I would promote the heck out the virtues of this excellent fare. And I would raise prices to near obscene. I know everyone will blame Bernanke or Obama and I will make a fortune. I will live the American Dream. >>
These ain't "fancy fruits or nuts" Cohodk, just plain old generic almonds, walnuts, spanish peanuts, and blueberries by the 3 lb container/bag. I cannot afford to buy them in the smaller 1/2 lb to 1 lb sizes. You can find the same quality at any large supermarket...just not in these bulk bag sizes at the price of the discount clubs. I also buy figs to eat with the nuts since they are very high in fiber....2-3 per day. The price of those is up 28% in the past 2 years.
Thanks MJ. Love ya back. Gas and heating oil being down is a nice plus, probably saved me $300-$500 in 2014. Unfortunately, that is somewhat offset by the cost of professional labor (roofers, tree cutters, burner techs, home repair/remodeling contractors, plumbers, electricians, auto techs, etc.). I've not seen any drops in prices from the contractor types I sometimes use. >>
Hoe dawn, hoe dawn.. "I cannot afford to buy them in the smaller 1/2 lb to 1 lb sizes." This from the guy a paragraph later who is paying for what sounds like extensive maintenance and improvement work on the house, some of it perhaps optional?? The guy who on another board routinely talks about buying and selling 4 and 5 figure coins? "can't afford" a pound of nuts??
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I bet I can walk into 100 houses and not see a single bowl of these items sitting on the kitchen table. If its not common, then its fancy (my term), you can use another.
The term organic is just a marketing gimmick. And its working very well. In the "good old days", people used to drink milk from their cows and eat the beef they raised themselves. And guess what? Some of them got cancer. Some of them were obese. Some of them had bad eyesight. Some of them had heart attacks. Some kids had learning disabilities, ect, ect, ect...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The term organic is just a marketing gimmick. And its working very well. In the "good old days", people used to drink milk from their cows and eat the beef they raised themselves. And guess what? Some of them got cancer. Some of them were obese. Some of them had bad eyesight. Some of them had heart attacks. Some kids had learning disabilities, ect, ect, ect... >>
Doubtful that half of them got cancer as is the projected outcome for those brought into this world today. Some were obese, but again not a third of the population. Keep eating the junk food though Cohodk, your man in DC will take care of any health issues.
Many died even before the mutated genes they were born with transformed their cells and cancer developed. Many died from polio, tuberculosis, typhoid. I have 100% confidence that if we killed everyone when they hit their 55th birthday (life expectancy in 1915), that the rate of cancer and the number of cancer cases would plummet.
Do people eat too much "junk" food today? Surely. And if you want to substitute a "organic" almond for a "non-organic" almond, be my guest. But again, I am 100% confident that "organic" almond will not help you live longer.
your man in DC
I have no man in DC. I am 100% heterosexual, but I have no problem if you differ.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Many died even before the mutated genes they were born with transformed their cells and cancer developed. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>Many died even before the mutated genes they were born with transformed their cells and cancer developed. >>
Thats pretty disrespectful. But I understand, its difficult for you to reason. This world is better off that you did not procreate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Thats pretty disrespectful. But I understand, its difficult for you to reason.
Yes, I must be missing the herbicides, pesticides, stabilizers, preservatives and dough softeners that engage the brain properly.
Wow, seems somewhat high Mark…can you give me a reference please.
Latest reported is that 2/3 of all cancers are due to random mutations i.e. "bad luck" for a person and nothing more.
Add the approximately 15% of all cancers that have been shown to be due to genetics and that is 80% of all cancers that are unavoidable and beyond anyone's control.
It is the remaining 20% that can be affected by diet, exercise, proper weight etc that we all need to keep in mind and work on.
But geesh…80% unavoidable!
<< <i>Latest reported is that 2/3 of all cancers are due to random mutations i.e. "bad luck" for a person and nothing more. >>
Well certainly Kool-Aid drinking has not been attributed to the disease.
Fortunately we have some choice left in this country. Mariner and Cohodk want to eat chicken nuggets with ranch dressing for lunch and Papa Johns pizza for dinner each night, go for it. Want to pay $1500 a month for the Cadillac health plan so the quad bypass is nearly free, kudos to you as well.
On the other hand, us health food nuts enjoy our organically grown almonds, vegetables and fruit while paying only a nominal fine to appease the bureaucrats.
35 years tell me that I am ahead of the game. Hope you folks are doing as well.
<< <i>Your source please on the 50% cancer rate for newborns. >>
Sure, but before I spend an hour deep diving, please give me a short list of which sources are acceptable to you. Tired of accumulating data and have it shot down as bogus as the recipient does not like the source.
Researching some WHO information right now which is projecting a 57% jump over two decade or so.
<< <i>
<< <i>Your source please on the 50% cancer rate for newborns. >>
Sure, but before I spend an hour deep diving, please give me a short list of which sources are acceptable to you. Tired of accumulating data and have it shot down as bogus as the recipient does not like the source.
Researching some WHO information right now. >>
For medical issues such as this any and all of the respected and recognized medical journals are fine…I am sure you are not using Oprah, the docs on TV, your barber or other similar personalities as your source.
Peer reviewed main stream medical publications are what are generally accepted.
Lets say NEJM, JAMA, American Cancer Society, NIH etc.
Or, where exactly did you get the numbers you are using here?
National Cancer Institute link.
Text
<< <i>Lifetime Risk of Developing Cancer: Approximately 40.4 percent of men and women will be diagnosed with all cancer sites at some point during their lifetime, based on 2009-2011 data. >>
I dont doubt that at all. In fact, I would even say that if we can get life expectancy to 120, there will be a nearly 100% chance of getting cancer.
Eating "organic" isnt going to keep you from developing cancer. In fact, should eating organic allow you to live longer, one could surmise that your chance of getting cancer during your lifetime is increased.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Eating "organic" isnt going to keep you from developing cancer. In fact, should eating organic allow you to live longer, one could surmise that your chance of getting cancer during your lifetime is increased. >>
Do you work for Monsanto Cohodk?
My father died a miserable death from primary liver cancer. The cause was easy to determine as cancer starting in the liver is quite rare and has only a few known causes. For 3 decades he was in the chemical business and his best selling product was an industrial solvent. The product was later banned and was one of the causes.
What makes you so certain, Cohodk that not a single chemical additive in the commercial food supply will not or cannot add to the risk of cancer?
To paraphrase Mariner, pony up some evidence of that.