What new collecting trends were evident at the 2015 FUN?
291fifth
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Which way are the collecting winds blowing?
All glory is fleeting.
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Although I attended the NY International rather than FUN this year, I did analyze the FUN Platinum Night and Partrick sessions and I have seen many of the pieces offered in the past.
The 'good news is that the bad news is wrong.' Demand for rare U.S. coins and for pre-1793 items remains about the same as it was a year ago. In some cases, prices are down because of an increase in supply of coins that have been or will soon be available, not because of a decrease in demand. I have not perceived much of a change in collecting trends, in regards to rarities, condition rarities of scarce coins, and key dates. Common coins and/or modern coins are beside my point.
Rare U.S. Coins Fare Well in FUN Auction: Coin Market Levels Remain Stable
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Tom
<< <i>Legend has a pretty good update on FUN. I usually take all reports with a grain of salt, but I thought Legend was pretty accurate. My general take is that a market correction is in the works for common stuff and that nice, original coins, and particularly scarcer and earlier dated coins will do quite well. I saw Laura Sperber at FUN and had intended to introduce myself, but each time I saw her, she looked angry. If you read the report, you'll know why. >>
Legend's report was interesting. I found half of it believable. The "trends" she is pointing to over the past 2-12 months have been around since the early 2009 crash. Nothing has changed....except there are more slabbed coins than ever, and huge collections hitting the block in 2014-2016. If the US goes into recession during any of the 2015-2020 period it will put a much more serious damper on the US coin market....as if the 2009-2010 period wasn't bad enough. If coin dealers are running out of cash now (after a 5 year boom in the stock market), what will happen if/when stocks finally correct? The coin market better hope that gold and silver come back from their 4 year hibernation and give it a lift.
The comment about dealers being short of money does not bode well for the "ordinary" material in the 2015 auctions (and there will probably be a lot of it.)
This past week I attempted to sell some non-numismatic books (art and history related) to my local used book dealer. I have done business with him for nearly 20 years. This time I ended up just taking all my books back home as his offer was beyond low and into the insulting category. (I did notice that his shelves seem to be unusually crowded with very stale books that seem to have been around forever.) I have a suspicion that the malaise in collectibles goes far beyond the coin market.
<< <i>I just read the Legend FUN Market Report.
The comment about dealers being short of money does not bode well for the "ordinary" material in the 2015 auctions (and there will probably be a lot of it.)
This past week I attempted to sell some non-numismatic books (art and history related) to my local used book dealer. I have done business with him for nearly 20 years. This time I ended up just taking all my books back home as his offer was beyond low and into the insulting category. (I did notice that his shelves seem to be unusually crowded with very stale books that seem to have been around forever.) I have a suspicion that the malaise in collectibles goes far beyond the coin market. >>
The comment about....dealers....being short of money does not bode well for ....ANYTHING!
COIN dealers make both sides of the market and that practice offers the BEST view of an economy that exists....anywhere.
They know what people are trying to dump and what they want to buy.
And from her report, I didn't infer ANY...."great" demand for much of anything.
The only reason a dealer would be short of money is that his inventory is stagnant and not in demand.
Antiques to guns to houses...... the money just ain't there.
I've been mostly selling in all my collecting fields the last couple of years. I think that demographics are working against collecting almost anything.
Barber halves, early walkers (many of which had old cleanings or other minor issues), a nice Feuchtwanger cent, a better date pretty tone Buff, a Rays shield nickel, and a Proof Merc dime in PCGS holders. But you had to work and walk it around and price it realistically.
Could not sell any better date Barber quarters in back of Bid, or a nice original XF+ better date seated quarter.
A dealer friend of mine who does a lot of wholesale had done over $100k in sales by Fri night, and most of his coins are priced < $1000.
<< <i>I saw Laura Sperber at FUN and had intended to introduce myself, but each time I saw her, she looked angry. If you read the report, you'll know why. >>
It makes sense as coin shows are set up very much like a high school cafeteria...
If you paid to be among the jocks & cheerleaders and they sat you beyond the nerds in the mutant section your not going to see much clientele.
That being said I rarely have enough time at shows to venture into the barren wasteland... But when I do there's usually some great deals to be found.
<< <i>. . . one trend I did observe was heartening to me, and that was the increase in interest in the colonial area which seems to have been spurred by the Newman, Patrick and upcoming Kendall Collection offerings. Sometimes dealers lament that a plethora of auctions will siphon money off the bourse floor, but I've always felt that a lot of cool new coins coming to market in one specialty was good for everyone involved, collectors and dealers alike, and the opportunity to acquire seldom seen issues would bring new players into the segment. At least based on what I saw this week, that is the case. >>
Coin Rarities Online
To paraphrase Paul Simon, there must be fifty ways for a coin dealer to be short of money. And I'm not just guessing.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>The only reason a dealer would be short of money is that his inventory is stagnant and not in demand.
To paraphrase Paul Simon, there must be fifty ways for a coin dealer to be short of money. And I'm not just guessing. >>
And to paraphrase Jesus, you will always have dreck coins among you. At some point, that ceases
to be an excuse for a sideways or down market, IMHO.
CRO: << posted this in the Road Report from FUN: ". . . one trend I did observe was heartening to me, and that was the increase in interest in the colonial area which seems to have been spurred by the Newman, Patrick and upcoming Kendall Collection offerings. ... I've always felt that a lot of cool new coins coming to market in one specialty was good for everyone involved, collectors and dealers alike, and the opportunity to acquire seldom seen issues would bring new players into the segment. At least based on what I saw this week, that is the case. ">>
The auction results did indicate that market levels for some areas of colonials have fallen significantly. Nonetheless, I find the above the statement to be true.
Prices are determined by both supply and demand. If supply increases, then prices will usually fall, even if demand remains the same. I
n the current case of colonials, demand has slightly increased due to interest in auctions of major collections, though supply of rare colonials available has increased by an unprecedented extent. I mention NE Shillings and Higley Coppers, as examples, in my current report.
Rare U.S. Coins Fare Well in FUN Auction: Coin Market Levels Remain Stable
Maybe CRO can provide examples of increased demand in particular categories of pre-1793 American numismatic items.