Average hourly earnings dropped .2% last month.
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Guess that is what happens when $100,000 oil field jobs are traded for $9 fast food positions.
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Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Sounds deflationary, a reversion to norm, end of world. >>
More like end of the so called middle class. Inflation is still found in the consumer sector. Though commodity prices have dropped by 30%, consumer prices for finished goods have continued to rise.
Inflation in the stock and bond markets have pushed valuations to unsustainable levels. The Obama plan for wealth redistribution has so far been a success, at least for the 5% at the top who have benefitted by this land grab.
Frightening story.
<< <i>....at least the medical community continues to thrive.......even if they have to force their toxic treatments down the throats of uncooperative Americans.
Frightening story. >>
That is a frightening story. A large % of medical procedures and treatments are not necessary or prescribed simply for the generation of revenue and/or because patients want to do something that may not even be necessary.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
So if commodity prices drop and wages drop and the prices for finished goods increased, then corporate profit margins are very high. And you wonder why the stock market is at highs when you just spelled out the case for a high stock market.
Where is the little guy who smacks his forehead in disbelief?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Oh, an I taught I taw a puttee kat...
Corporate profits and wages vs. GDP
Corporate profit inputs are quite numerous...and I don't think you'll find the Bernanke/Yellen "put" listed as an input.
<< <i>Guess that is what happens when $100,000 oil field jobs are traded for $9 fast food positions. >>
Cuz that's what happens, right? Petroleum engineers, drilling chiefs, and experienced rig crew, when they're downsized, go and apply at the local McDs and Starbucks.
Yah, that's how it works
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Guess that is what happens when $100,000 oil field jobs are traded for $9 fast food positions. >>
Cuz that's what happens, right? Petroleum engineers, drilling chiefs, and experienced rig crew, when they're downsized, go and apply at the local McDs and Starbucks.
Yah, that's how it works >>
I thought they collected unemployment for 99 weeks before looking for a new job.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>Guess that is what happens when $100,000 oil field jobs are traded for $9 fast food positions. >>
Cuz that's what happens, right? Petroleum engineers, drilling chiefs, and experienced rig crew, when they're downsized, go and apply at the local McDs and Starbucks.
Yah, that's how it works >>
As seen by the overall US economy and total jobs picture, that's essentially how it plays out. Those quality oil jobs are leaving the building....what comes in at the bottom to replace them are McMart and part time/temp jobs. Consider it like a daisy chain. If those laid off oil field guys are really good, they'll end up replacing someone not as sharp or as skilled and remain at a fairly decent well-paying job. The daisy chain will keep kicking that job down the rung until it reaches the bottom. The trickle down economy.
<< <i>Guess that is what happens when $100,000 oil field jobs are traded for $9 fast food positions. >>
No because all the fast food jobs are filled and no one wants to hire you because you are use to $30 a hour job. Boom & Bust towns aint pretty after the oil patch dries up.
Speaking from experience of the early 1980's in OKC,OK. When the state second biggest bank fail the house of cards tumbled PDQ
Where is the little guy who smacks his forehead in disbelief?"""
You are assuming that the wage is dropping for a given worker. Obviously the McDonalds burger flipper is worth no where as much to the fast food chain as the factory foreman is to a manufacturing concern.
Even though the hourly wages are dropping, the employer capitation cost is no doubt increasing as ACA driven insurance costs soar.
I agree though that the head smacking guy would fit in well.
<< <i>
<< <i>Guess that is what happens when $100,000 oil field jobs are traded for $9 fast food positions. >>
Cuz that's what happens, right? Petroleum engineers, drilling chiefs, and experienced rig crew, when they're downsized, go and apply at the local McDs and Starbucks.
Yah, that's how it works >>
Sorry Baley if I was too literal. Net positions are tabulated each month not a compilation of every job move. Fired rig worker probably moves back in with girlfriend in Houston and as noted collects unemployment. girlfriend works mommy hours at McD for a bit of pocket money and a complimentary lunch.
<< <i>its not over yet. >>
It would be interesting to know Average hourly earning over the past decade minus the top 10% of wage earners. i.e. How has mainstream America fared? Average hourly earnings are skewed to the positive by those who are realizing huge gains. There's millions of people with huge gains but tens of millions with no gains (or losses).
My brother-in-law was making a quarter million a year as a manager at an aerospace manufacturer until 2009 and now earns $50k/year managing an auto repair shop. He's got plenty of company though the dollar figures are usually not as dramatic.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>its not over yet. >>
It would be interesting to know Average hourly earning over the past decade minus the top 10% of wage earners. i.e. How has mainstream America fared? Average hourly earnings are skewed to the positive by those who are realizing huge gains. There's millions of people with huge gains but tens of millions with no gains (or losses).
My brother-in-law was making a quarter million a year as a manager at an aerospace manufacturer until 2009 and now earns $50k/year managing an auto repair shop. He's got plenty of company though the dollar figures are usually not as dramatic. >>
I posted a wages vs GDP chart link above. It has been falling since 1970.
<< <i>Yup, we'll zoom from the general or "average" to the specific, and then apply our confirmation-bias specific example back to the average and conclude that life sucks and They are at fault. >>
When the median American is in low income category as they are now? When they're still losing ground with no bottom in sight? Yeah, it sucks for many Americans - you are correct. And it gets worse daily.
There's relatively small group accumulating massive wealth at the expense of society at large and our country's future but nobody seems to care. At least you don't care do you?
Well maybe he is not missing after all.
For some individuals, such as his brother-in-law, the picture is neither bright nor hopeful.
I think what makes our economy feel "different this time" is that so many people either got caught in the last downturn or are intimately familiar with details of someone who did. That sticks with people. Not too unlike those from my grandparents generation who went through the great depression. The economic environment that existed between 2007 through 2011 affected people in ways I don't think even they understand.
I can relate to what VanHalen was trying to express, as two of my Brother-in-law's lost their jobs in the past 2 1/2 years. The first held a position as Chief Information Officer for a large conglomerate corporation with heavy ties to the Defense Industry. He was well educated, well spoken, abundantly experienced, talented in his position and a natural born schmoozer. It took him 13 months to finally regain employment in his field. The position he was eventually able to obtain was two levels below, and half the salary, of his prior position. He was around 52 years old at the time.
My second Brother-in-law, who is around 57 1/2 years old, lost his job approximately 10 months ago. He held a high level position in the IT section of a very prominent global bank. Again, like the other brother-in-law, he was well educated, knowledgeable in his field and the type of guy that people generally feel very comfortable with after only just meeting him, quite the opposite of me. He wasted no time exercising his extensive contact base to secure new employment.
Although not one to have lived large prior to losing his job, the timing could not have been worse for his personal financial circumstances, as he had two sons in college and a third entering in the fall of '14. He was also was providing support, both emotionally and financially to his very elderly widowed mother and a single, never married, uncle, both of whom were in their late 80's.
With the loss of employment he could no longer financially juggle the college tuition costs and with great remorse was forced to pass that burden onto his children, which required them to then take out sizable loans. The youngest was forced to forfeit the college he had planned to attend to enroll at a State University, as it was the only thing even remotely affordable. Not the end of the world, but in it's entirety all of the things that happened to this family in a relatively short period of time left them somewhat shell-shocked.
Despite exhausting all leads and contacts, and sending out well in excess of 300 resumes, he could not find work. The large financials, for which he served well for years, continue to send jobs offshore. They have contracted out more and more of what was previous handled internally. At some point, less Indians means less chiefs too. Whole departments were wiped out, one after another. Those jobs headed to India.
Jump to today and this once self confident VP, dedicated family man, baseball coach and care giver is spending his days driving for one of the internet cab alternatives. (uber/lyft) He is not the same guy any longer. Dead in the eyes, literally, I see it. He has begun suffering from illnesses he did not have prior to this life altering change. The family is now facing the possibility of having to sell the house they live in, as they cannot service their debt and make ends meet to live a basic life.
This is just two examples, there are so many out there that are just like these hidden beneath the headlines of improving job numbers and a recovering economy.
I'm not trying to spout brimstone and despair. I'm just saying by the grace of god go any one of us. What I am saying is that despite improvements in one area of the job market, or the broader economy, that the media chooses to shine a light on, there are many living in their own personal dark world. Do not so quickly dismiss those people.
edit for spell/grammar
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Good post (the whole thing) and damned straight. I'm not dismissing the specifics, my own brother in law was out of work for a while (> 6 months) and so was my next door neighbor, and another friend, before they found work, and another friend is out of work right now. I count my lucky stars every day and prepare for when/if it's my turn.
My only point is that this has been going on a long time, and will keep going on a long time, these fluctuations due to economic cycles, seasonal influences, industries and companies growing and dying and evolving, that sure the details are 'different this time' and maybe the magnitude or breadth is above average, but then again, maybe not and maybe, just maybe, those individuals had some small part in what happened to them, maybe they made decisions that in hindsight were not so wise? maybe?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
One thing I see that is different in people now than those who lived during my grandparents time, and even my parents time to an extent, is that those earlier generations understood personal responsibility.
It is one of the highest priorities to me as a parent to teach my two girls, and something I never miss an opportunity to impress upon them when an opportunity presents itself to drive home the message. Right along with: live below your means and always take care of each other.
I suspect that we share the similar characteristic of making sure our financial house is in order before we engage in the pursuit of leisurely pleasure and materialistic goods.
I recognize that many Americans living today get that totally backwards, which is why so many are in poor financial shape.
I believe that these are the people you're referring to and I wouldn't feel bad for these people.
However I do feel bad for those who suffer from the collateral damage that those people create.
Unfortunately, a lot of people are basically selfish and/or lazy. They want the fruits and rewards of hard work / hard choices without actually doing any hard work or making any hard choices. Yes, it can be more fun to spend money than save it, but it only feels good for short period of time.
I seriously doubt you went out the other day and opened a sears credit card with 6 months delayed interest charges to purchase your washer and dryer. Yet that is what many do nowadays. Neighbor has it, I want it too. I don't have the money, well who cares they have "free" financing.
People don't deprive themselves of much today, think no credit check for new cars, and then act surprised, crying oh poor me, when the bills actually come due.
No, I get that people do that, and again I don't feel sorry for those people. The people who engage in that kind of behavior will always be in debt and a dollar short. Many are lost causes and will never learn. As they say, you can't fix stupid.
But once again, the others, and there are others, like my brother-in-law, who through little or no fault of their own, are facing tough times even as things appear to improve. It's these people who need our compassion. These people are frustrated and angry, and they should be. Most played by the rules they knew to be true, and lost. The degree of pain for these people varies from a bad setback to outright horrendous in some cases. These are the people, along with many of their kids, who will forever be changed by the events that have unfolded.
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Are you referring to 2015, 1915 or 1815? Or 2115?
But to respond directly to the title of this thread...
Think pre-holiday employment. Think lots of temp jobs paying just over min wage. Wage growth will show an uptick next month. Then what we gonna talk about?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Wage growth will show an uptick next month. Then what we gonna talk about? >>
Emerging hyperinflation and wanton currency creation with no regard for the populace!
No matter what, or whose numbers I look at I can not see anything that could be construed as a robust economy in the foreseeable future. The problems stem from tax / regulatory over zealousness. Is it just me with the dour outlook?
What I see is more of this kind of crap. Huckster politicians setting up a two tiered taxation system where some are more equal that others. Let one schmuck cover his neighbor's tax obligation. Hoo Boy.
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<< <i>Does anyone here see a strong economy ahead?
No matter what, or whose numbers I look at I can not see anything that could be construed as a robust economy in the foreseeable future. The problems stem from tax / regulatory over zealousness. Is it just me with the dour outlook? >>
With that chart not showing the past 2-3 "recovery" years I don't think it carries much weight as is.
I like to follow the Armstrong ECM/business cycle. It is forecasting tougher times in 2016-2020. Hard to say what that is. But the business cycle is due for a decline after a major rally from 2011-2015. Right now we're nearing the top of a cycle which fits with high sentiment and consumer confidence numbers and high stock market prices. And they could get higher this year depending how this last year of the cycle plays out. The 2012-2014 part of the cycle should have been a hard-down recessionary/deflationary period that began in 2009-2011. It didn't happen with massive world-wide QE. It just might be that the period was delayed a few years. What's 4-6 years out of a 120 year cycle? The FED could have easily altered things a bit. What follows a 4 year smack down in commodities? My guess would be a 4 year smack down it those things that rallied from 2011-2014.
This guy sees the SM hard down phase after 2017....not too much different from Armstrong ....note the reference to 30 yr, 60 yr, etc. cycles later in the video.
Armstrong says a new war cycle has started. Nenner above says the 2nd decade of each century tends to be a war period going back thousands of years. In checking the past 1000 yrs it seems to me that the only the 19th and 20th centuries strongly adhered to that notion. Even the 1710's weren't all that war-like. And before that loose correlation at best. Harder to track currency and asset wars though.
1000 yrs of war
Wars
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