I took a look at the 2014 investment thread....and the 2015 will probably turn out no better. Most of these guys (yourself and myself included) swung for the fences, and lost. There were 66% losers in that thread. Now if those are honest attempts to invest their own money for real gains....it ain't working. 2014 was a great year for stocks with the SPY up 11%. Yet only 21% of the 2014 players met or exceeded that standard. 75% of the players had gains <4%...
The annual investment thread on here is affected (confounded) by the terms of the contest, the prizes for first and last place (but nothing between) cause (some) people to swing for the fences, reasoning that since it's just a game with nothing real at stake, might as well pick something that will either most likely double or more, or go to near zero (or very negative) A much more interesting thread would be one where the participants post their actual asset allocations which are tracked for the year and the years following. But no one would participate for privacy reasons. The closest we've seen are general asset allocation threads like this one where a few folks were bold enough to state their relative percentages of assets (without stating the total value figures) but even then most were very vague in the discussion, if they participated at all.
edited to add: many participants also apparently swing for a single or double (or getting to base on balls) by picking 3 or 4 choices, effectively averaging against each other (hedging, i.e. diluting) their picks
<< <i>I do recall the dow stocks having share floats in the tens of millions a generation ago. Today it is in the billions. >>
So what? A large float will keep the volatility at reasonable levels. Stocks with a small float will generally be more volatile than a stock with a large float and institutional investors will avoid those with small floats.. Don't forget, there has been a great influx of newly listed stocks over the last 20+years.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
This poll is like everything Cohodk posts. It's a way to twist and spin things so he can act like he is the smartest man in the room. IMO, he isn't. He just thinks he is.
I own stocks, almost 100 different companies, hedged with short SPX calls. I enhance returns with IPOs and secondary offerings from investment banks.
After almost a 6 year bull market the party is getting old. There could be a speculative blowoff which would be great, or the market could be topping here.
The worldwide economy has serious problems with deflation. That has been good for share prices since the financial crisis, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an uncoupling.
<< <i> After almost a 6 year bull market the party is getting old. There could be a speculative blowoff which would be great, or the market could be topping here.
The worldwide economy has serious problems with deflation. That has been good for share prices since the financial crisis, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an uncoupling. >>
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I find successful investing, stocks or otherwise, is as much an art as it is a science. A constant tug of war between emotion, fear and greed, offset hopefully, with a pragmatic, objective view of a number of data points, devoid of the ideological garbage that muddies your decision making. The latter is what all of us, being human, struggle with and why many people just flat out suck at investing. How many people do you know that have owned a great stock or investment with huge returns overtime and still find a way to lose their arse?
I use fundamental and technical indicators, how would you thoroughly evaluate drug companies with new drugs in phase trials without fundamental analysis? but I use a number of technical indicators as well, but you can't use them all, many are contradictory and which indicators you use or which stocks you gravitate to is all nuanced I find. The technical indicators are countless and I admit I don't use the same ones for each stock I buy, which is probably a mistake. For example, I don't use option indicators that often but when I find unusual call or put buying, before an upcoming event I take heed, like what I'm seeing in a particular company, I am now buying more of this stock than I usually would in a short period, but not enough to wreak havoc(5%), but I have found this type of indication mixed with other anecdotal evidence is a high probability indicator. Of course it probably means this time it will fail , but if it does it won't be the fist or last time I make a mistake, you just have to get it right more times than wrong and live to fight another day. Hubris is a killer in many things and certainly in investing, imo.
Straight up answer : Yes I do. And my house and my car, too. On the flip side, my children , grandchildren, bank, and the IRS own me. They're the reason I dabble in metals all my life And why all my blue collar trades deal with metal manipulation, screwing, bending, shaping, stretching, coating, testing, weighing, assaying… I'm just a saying
Comments
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The annual investment thread on here is affected (confounded) by the terms of the contest, the prizes for first and last place (but nothing between) cause (some) people to swing for the fences, reasoning that since it's just a game with nothing real at stake, might as well pick something that will either most likely double or more, or go to near zero (or very negative) A much more interesting thread would be one where the participants post their actual asset allocations which are tracked for the year and the years following. But no one would participate for privacy reasons. The closest we've seen are general asset allocation threads like this one where a few folks were bold enough to state their relative percentages of assets (without stating the total value figures) but even then most were very vague in the discussion, if they participated at all.
edited to add: many participants also apparently swing for a single or double (or getting to base on balls) by picking 3 or 4 choices, effectively averaging against each other (hedging, i.e. diluting) their picks
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I do recall the dow stocks having share floats in the tens of millions a generation ago. Today it is in the billions. >>
So what? A large float will keep the volatility at reasonable levels. Stocks with a small float will generally be more volatile than a stock with a large float and institutional investors will avoid those with small floats.. Don't forget, there has been a great influx of newly listed stocks over the last 20+years.
Picked these up today
BP
NILSY
CANV
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>I do recall the dow stocks having share floats in the tens of millions a generation ago. Today it is in the billions. >>
And I remember stocks having revenues in the millions, today its billions.
And look at Apple....2 years ago they had less than a billion shares. Now its 6 billion!!! OMG!!!!
What you wrote is a fact----I knew you could do it
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well, I guess because you said it, its true.
But im smarter than you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My pick was a total loss at end of year. But was up 140% during the year. In real life did I sell or hold to end? Was I a winner or loser?
In life, the finish line is where you place it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Its a simple yes or no question. Of course you would think its rigged.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
+1
I enhance returns with IPOs and secondary offerings from investment banks.
After almost a 6 year bull market the party is getting old. There could be a
speculative blowoff which would be great, or the market could be topping
here.
The worldwide economy has serious problems with deflation. That has
been good for share prices since the financial crisis, but I wouldn't be surprised
to see an uncoupling.
<< <i> After almost a 6 year bull market the party is getting old. There could be a
speculative blowoff which would be great, or the market could be topping
here.
The worldwide economy has serious problems with deflation. That has
been good for share prices since the financial crisis, but I wouldn't be surprised
to see an uncoupling. >>
Any day now...?...
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Any day now. . .!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Words I subscribe to:
It's better to be in too early than too late.
It's better to be out too early than too late.
Fundamentals teach this and the so call technicals miss this.
And one more thing, cohodk will disagree.
Ignorance is no excuse for stupidity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I use fundamental and technical indicators, how would you thoroughly evaluate drug companies with new drugs in phase trials without fundamental analysis? but I use a number of technical indicators as well, but you can't use them all, many are contradictory and which indicators you use or which stocks you gravitate to is all nuanced I find. The technical indicators are countless and I admit I don't use the same ones for each stock I buy, which is probably a mistake. For example, I don't use option indicators that often but when I find unusual call or put buying, before an upcoming event I take heed, like what I'm seeing in a particular company, I am now buying more of this stock than I usually would in a short period, but not enough to wreak havoc(5%), but I have found this type of indication mixed with other anecdotal evidence is a high probability indicator. Of course it probably means this time it will fail
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
On the flip side, my children , grandchildren, bank, and the IRS own me.
They're the reason I dabble in metals all my life
And why all my blue collar trades deal with metal manipulation, screwing, bending, shaping, stretching, coating, testing, weighing, assaying… I'm just a saying
There's no escape.