Continued gains for biotech?
hopsin
Posts: 212 ✭
2015 is off to a volatile start...many up the surging names are nasdaq pharmaceuticals...what is your strategy in this market?
Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
drop like a rock. Drugs I bet on never get approved or work.
bob
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
It's a tough area and very speculative, I definitely try to avoid the hype names, like "fat" stocks (even though ARNA is up big today) and "stem cell". This past year I've had 4 antibiotic stocks do very well. It's a little strange, in that the antibiotic area, was probably the dullest performing area in bio for the last number of years, I also lost money in a couple of smaller speculative ones. One diluted after I thought they couldn't dilute anymore, POS ;~
The Bio area is over hyped right now and filled with a lot of hot air. There are some fascinating things going on out there, though.
Maybe you can get Baley to talk a little bit more about HALO
<< <i>What does this thread have to do with precious metals? >>
Nothing, just like many of the other threads in this forum which you don't appear to have a problem with.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>A $4.00 script for doxycycline has gone to $400.00. Any room left in that runup? >>
Isn't this from stan's conspiracy theory of "bleeding the middle class"? The guy with a baseball avatar (or at least he had it as of today) who is a far right fool who thinks stocks are worthless and that you should be buying gold now?
No, that's from my fiancée's recent prescription receipt, compared to a receipt of hers from a couple years ago. However, it's great if you work for a drug company, an insurance company or have qualified as an "obamacare guide". There's great job security in ripping off everyone else under government mandate.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Isn't this from stan's conspiracy theory of "bleeding the middle class"?
No, that's from my fiancée's recent prescription receipt, compared to a receipt of hers from a couple years ago. However, it's great if you work for a drug company, an insurance company or have qualified as an "obamacare guide". There's great job security in ripping off everyone else under government mandate. >>
Oh, it's just a conspiracy theory. How dare you say otherwise, you ~far right fool~.
<< <i>
<< <i>What does this thread have to do with precious metals? >>
Nothing, just like many of the other threads in this forum which you don't appear to have a problem with. >>
He's got you there.
I'm one of the few that have complained about all the non-PM off topic threads here, when mglicker and others do it, and many sit there and try to justify it like 6 steps to Kevin Bacon type of thing.
Of course this thread has nothing to do with PMs...just like many don't.......maybe people should start speaking up on all of those
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I was within 1 confirmation click away from buying a good chunk of NDRM around Mid-Dec for $6 after watching it's IPO come out in mid-Nov but I chickened out at the last millisecond and bought something else. It closed at 6.18 on Dec.29 and closed at 18.14 on Dec.30.......
Ahhhh, the couldda shouldda wouldda's I have......
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>
<< <i>A $4.00 script for doxycycline has gone to $400.00. Any room left in that runup? >>
Isn't this from stan's conspiracy theory of "bleeding the middle class"? The guy with a baseball avatar (or at least he had it as of today) who is a far right fool who thinks stocks are worthless and that you should be buying gold now? >>
Buying biotech and other stocks at 6 year rally highs following a parabolic 5X/6yr increase isn't the smartest thing in the book. What ever happened to selling high...and buying back low?
Fwiw, this forum was founded on Goldsaint's "Gold and Silver, World News, Economic Predictions" thread from 2004-2009....all 10,000+ posts. It's called the PMs Forum but there's plenty of history for having discussed economics, monetary policy, stock markets, etc. because they are all related. Precious Metals can't be logically discussed in a vacuum. And the PM market is far more global today than when our forum discussions began back in 2004.
At least get the terminology correct. An ETF isn't a "pure play" on anything. A pure play would be a stock that is focused on one specific drug to cure one specific illness. That's a pure play. Get it right. You're dispensing advice without knowing what you are saying.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i> I am bullish on healthcare stocks in general for the short term and long term future (pharmaceutical companies included). The best pure way to play this would be XLV.
At least get the terminology correct. An ETF isn't a "pure play" on anything. A pure play would be a stock that is focused on one specific drug to cure one specific illness. That's a pure play. Get it right. You're dispensing advice without knowing what you are saying. >>
The XLV ETF has also underperformed the health care select sector index. XLV is heavily slanted towards the largest HC companies in the US. JNJ is the largest holding at 11%, followed by Pfizer and Merck.
I saw a great lesson in Bio Tech "flyers" back in July when a pumper showed up on one of the blogs I read recommending ACRX for an easy 30-60% gain. It was all set to receive approval from the FDA on a new drug that would send the stock price soaring. It was a >90% slam dunk. So what happened? The FDA delayed approval and the stock plunged 35% the next day. It declined by a total of 55% over the next few weeks. Like DerryB, I avoid pills of all colors as well.
ACRX
<< <i> I am bullish on healthcare stocks in general for the short term and long term future (pharmaceutical companies included). The best pure way to play this would be XLV.
At least get the terminology correct. An ETF isn't a "pure play" on anything. A pure play would be a stock that is focused on one specific drug to cure one specific illness. That's a pure play. Get it right. You're dispensing advice without knowing what you are saying. >>
The terminology was correct. You dislike me and disagree with my views, so you play semantics to try to "get me." It's pretty simple. Ok then gilead sciences would be my "pure play" from here on out. I got into it around 99 dollars...
<< <i>
<< <i> I am bullish on healthcare stocks in general for the short term and long term future (pharmaceutical companies included). The best pure way to play this would be XLV.
At least get the terminology correct. An ETF isn't a "pure play" on anything. A pure play would be a stock that is focused on one specific drug to cure one specific illness. That's a pure play. Get it right. You're dispensing advice without knowing what you are saying. >>
The XLV ETF has also underperformed the health care select sector index. XLV is heavily slanted towards the largest HC companies in the US. JNJ is the largest holding at 11%, followed by Pfizer and Merck.
I saw a great lesson in Bio Tech "flyers" back in July when a pumper showed up on one of the blogs I read recommending ACRX for an easy 30-60% gain. It was all set to receive approval from the FDA on a new drug that would send the stock price soaring. It was a >90% slam dunk. So what happened? The FDA delayed approval and the stock plunged 35% the next day. It declined by a total of 55% over the next few weeks. Like DerryB, I avoid pills of all colors as well.
ACRX >>
No no no...jnj was 11.14% of its holdings as of today's open. At least get it right. You are "dispensing" advice without knowing what you are talking about. Moron...
<< <i>No no no...jnj was 11.14% of its holdings as of today's open. At least get it right. You are "dispensing" advice without knowing what you are talking about. Moron... >>
Seriously, leaving off the decimal place when it's <5 is that so foreign to you? 99.44% of the members here couldn't care less whether it's 11% or 12%. And 11% is an acceptable rounding result. I no doubt read the XLV holdings well before you did. And if you really want to get technical, your number is also likely to be in error unless the 3rd and 4th decimal places are also zeroes. So who's the fool? Oh, based on the 1st link below the percentage as of January 5th was 11.23%. It's all good enough for me. That's 11%. The second link shows it at 11.14%. Still 11%. It's not worth my effort to define it any better.
You start a thread titled "Bio Tech," and then don't even follow that topic. Now we can return to our regularly scheduled topic on why XLV is a "pure play." Play ball.
XLV 1 holdings %
XLV 2 holdings %
In financial management, a "pure play" is a company that either has, or is very close to having, a single business focus.[1] Coca-Cola is an example of a pure play in this context because it retails only beverages. On the other hand, PepsiCo is not a pure play because it also owns the Frito-Lay snack foods brand.[2]
The pure play approach or pure play method is a method for estimating the cost of capital for a proposed new project or product line. It involves examining other companies, which are pure plays in the proposed line of business and inferring a cost of capital based on their capital structures (e.g. Debt-to-Equity ratio) and betas.[3]
In e-business terms, a pure play is an organization that originated and does business purely through the Internet; they have no physical store (brick and mortar) where customers can shop. Examples of large pure play companies include Amazon.com (in its initial business when it was only involved in retail products) and Netflix.com (in content). With a much lower barrier to entry, the Internet affords smaller companies the ability to compete with much larger brands due to typically lower overhead and marketing costs.
Class dismissed. Between rebalancings and daily stock price changes seems pretty moronic to comment about 11% vs. 11.14%. Next time we look it could 10.98%....which is close enough to 11% to me.
It's not semantics. It's finance. I'm trying to save you from a life of confusion when you begin to navigate in the real world.
I knew it would happen.
This source says 11.138% - final answer
This happened to me yesterday with CNAT. A hopeful clinical trial study was to be presented at 4:30p.m. but the new wasn't good as they discontinued one of their biggest trials after citing "logistical" reasons. Stock dropped 46% in after hours trading.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I owned ISIS for a few years. Interesting technology, and you would think that eventually they will come through with some winners. It always seems to be slow going, though. >>
Slow? You must have done pretty well, the the stock was up 1,600+% for the last 10 years and 440% the last 2...that's the kind of slow I like, dang
100% Positive BST transactions
That's when I owned it. And sold it. They must have had some good successes. Good deal! I always liked their technology.
I knew it would happen.
biotech ..... RADF
Whats with all the douchiness on here lately?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Go Go or Ruh Roh?
Cramer top picks
Go Go or Ruh Roh?
Yup!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
thanks Jim. ;~
For the anti-biotech stock folk, chilax, he does likes 10% GLD longerterm
I'll add, I actually think he's pretty good with his long term recommendations
At any rate, when something goes nuts, I take some profits on the way up, while letting the remainder ride, if the business appears to still be on a successful trajectory
For folks to whom those names, and older ones like Genentech and Amgen, do not ring a bell, then they're probably best starting with a sector mutual fund than individual picks
you can only take profits on something you already own, unless one is going to try to time a short on a freight train company, sure you might catch them stopped at a crossing (FDA delay, slower sales ramp than forecast, etc) or in a train wreck (drug fails late stage clinical trials, drug has deadly side effect after market launch, etc) and actually, the industry is still young and most companies "lose" money in research and development expenses, and the probability of success is proportional to the difficulty in what the company is trying to do, but when you hit a winner and it goes up 10x, 20x, or more.
that's good stuff
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Biotechs Stick it to Stocks >>
still 15% higher year to date…..very nice!
Philosophy aside, the Biotech index has risen 9 fold in 7 years and 4 fold in 3 years. This is a classic parabolic chart formation that meets my criteria for a bubble which Ive outlined on this board many times. Expect under performance in this group vs other sectors over the next decade.
to add...I love this sector, probably my favorite, but valuations are well ahead of fundamentals and already reflect great promise.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I have a few small cap bios(not penny crap!) that have done very well but it is a dizzying ride and you have to have a strong stomach, for days like today when some I own are down anywhere from -20% to -5% across the board. these are the days I add to my conviction list, and days like this past Friday to sell.
No argument at all that the speculative biotechs are generally ahead of themselves, and as I said last week (and all year, really) am adjusting accordingly..
On the other hand, these corrections are more healthy for the sector long term, than if it just powers higher without pause. "Buying Opportunity" for those who were left behind! Keep on stackin! (test tubes )
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Wish I got BLUE 12 months ago..
BLUE
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.