Goldman 2014 prediction - gold at $1050

secondrepublic

Only five more days for Goldman Sachs to meet its prediction of gold at $1050 by end of year 2014. Link to CNBC article. They held to this prediction and even repeated it a couple of times. Not looking very good for them.

Gold exactly one year ago (Dec. 26, 2013) was selling at $1206... today it's at $1193, hardly changed at all despite some ups and downs in 2014.

derryb

PMs have more downside in the foreseeable future. Goldman is probably close to correct.

OPA

<< <i>PMs have more downside in the foreseeable future. Goldman is probably close to correct. >>





For once, they are in the "ball park," unlike some gold buff's i/e P. Hellers totally absurd predictions for the last several years.

OnlyGoldIsMoney

Goldman right or wrong - just don't care.

At $1,200 I will hit my lifetime goal all the sooner.

OPA

G.S. predictions for 2015...

Goldman Sachs crystal ball predictions for 2015

roadrunner

<< <i>I would not bet against GS...the prediction will come true, timing was just slightly off! >>



Timing is just as important as the number itself. Since we're not at $1050 yet we can't give GS any credit for calling that. As 2014 winds down it appears they will just be wrong.

Reminds me of analyst Larry Edelson who claims to have called for gold to reach $1200-$1250. The only problem with that was that he was calling for that in the spring/early summer of 2011 when gold was around $1500. He fully expected it to drop back $250. Turned out it went to $1900 first....then took 3 years to reach his "target." Of course today he proclaims that he got it right......just 3 years and $450 off.

TwoSides2aCoin

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i>I would not bet against GS...the prediction will come true, timing was just slightly off! >>



Timing is just as important as the number itself. Since we're not at $1050 yet we can't give GS any credit for calling that. As 2014 winds down it appears they will just be wrong.

Reminds me of analyst Larry Edelson who claims to have called for gold to reach $1200-$1250. The only problem with that was that he was calling for that in the spring/early summer of 2011 when gold was around $1500. He fully expected it to drop back $250. Turned out it went to $1900 first....then took 3 years to reach his "target." Of course today he proclaims that he got it right......just 3 years and $450 off. >>



Semantics. off by slightly over 10% (close but no cigar) ... but a lot closer than what most Gold perma bulls predicted.

Unknown

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luckybucks

Well see what the next three days brings.

I doubt we will see $1,050, unless precious metals takes a GIANT hit (like $200+ in three days).

It will be interesting to see what 2015 brings to the precious metals market.

cohodk

GS did not predicted gold to go higher and in this regard they were correct. Im not defending GS but rather than engage in a discussion of absolutes, which this board likes to do such as (the USA manufactures NOTHING anymore, and the US dollar IS toast, or silver hit $14.15, not $14.00), we should look at the larger picture.

roadrunner

Considering gold started 2014 at $1205 and is not far from that now, that's hard to call Goldman's call for "gold to tank in 2014" to be anything but ho-hum. When this video was made gold was around $1250 and headed back to $1388. In fact it wasn't until late October that gold has fallen back under the $1250 level for any considerable period. Anyone following this Goldman recommendation to short gold in mid-January got their butts kicked as it went up over $130 into mid-March (ie you'd have been stopped out with significant losses). How much you want to bet that they were long gold in Jan-March and raking profits in against their public recommendation to be short? No doubt they went back to the short bet as gold failed to take out $1400. But this has been a fairly whipsawing type year for gold that cut both bears and bulls. One gold bear trader I follow that has got the decline right since Oct 2011, has given back much of their 2013 gains this year.....they are actually showing a net loss on PMs in 2014 by trying to play the numerous whipsaws.

As a headline grabber it "appears to be a good call." In reality it's been pretty much a coin flip. 2 days left to go though. And I would expect to probably see $1171 this week.

Goldman's 2014 calls

Currie said gold still worked as a hedge against inflation; he just doesn't see any strong inflationary pressures in the next few years. He said once the economic recovery picks up more momentum, inflation would follow and gold may become attractive again. Gold's early 2014 rally won't last, he said.

Gold's rally lasted another 2 months after Currie posted this. Strong inflationary pressures? That's not a requirement for gold to rally as it did from 2000-2003 when a recession was in full swing. Most of gold's best moves have been when there wasn't strong inflation (ie 1970-1980, 1993-1998, 2009-2011) but where the currency and economic confidence was under stress.

OPA

G.S. off by $130, but that's the closest that they've been in years.

seebelow

I'd say it was pretty much a good call. Whether throwing darts or analysis. We didn't hit $800 nor $1800.
Where were at is pretty close.
And think that was the intent. More of a guidance.

Not defending nor calling out GS. That's another thread. Just giving a little credit where a little credit is due. In this case.

Aren't we all just muppets to them or was it another firm?