Is good news on the economy bad news for gold?

bidask

employment data solid

Baley

Is good news on the economy bad news for gold?

wondered that too

bronco2078

Nope all those new 30 hour a week 8$ an hour jobs are nothing one way or the other to gold

MGLICKER

Ultimately, expansion of the money supply will determine longer term gold trends. I figure that a solid economy requires less deficit spending which should minimize currency production.

All that is out the window now as madmen are running the show.

johnny9434

yeah, great economy

TwoSides2aCoin

Good news on the economy is political hype so we can feel like our "leaders" are making a difference for the money they pilfer from the people.

bronco2078

Unenployment 11.4% is not good news

ricko

The news that is fed to the public is only partial.... true inflation, true wages, true unemployment, true trade, true deficit - all are not reported....very distorted picture. Right now, IMO, it is like watching a puppet show on the world stage... not sure who is pulling all the strings, but the dance cannot go on forever... Cheers, RickO

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>Nope all those new 30 hour a week 8$ an hour jobs are nothing one way or the other to gold >>



But think how many new gold buyers there will be LOLOLOLOL.

Baley

<< <i>The news that is fed to the public is only partial.... true inflation, true wages, true unemployment, true trade, true deficit - all are not reported....very distorted picture. Right now, IMO, it is like watching a puppet show on the world stage... not sure who is pulling all the strings, but the dance cannot go on forever... Cheers, RickO >>



Heh, the "true" statistics that are composed of averages of millions and billions of data points? Heh, that's really useful... to no one. What matters is which of the data points any given individual's situation represents, and to a lesser but significant extent, the data points that represent that person's immediate environment. I agree that the giant "true" data is misrepresented by those with an agenda in propagating a belief system about "truth"... there is no absolute truth; everything is relative.

the early US coiners had it right: Mind your business. Liberty is the parent of science and industry. To be esteemed, be useful.

jmski52

There are plenty of absolute truths.

miklia

I see U6 (and all them U's) dropping like a rock. Interested to hear how this is 'bad'. Sometimes ya just gotta give credit where it's due and move on.

perkdog

I just got a 2% rate on a 20 Month CD, best Ive seen in YEARS.

Is this because the Economy is getting better?? Serious question I dont know one way or another

jmski52

You don't think that there's something to learn from the type of jobs being counted as gains? From what I've read, there really might be a problem in the quality of those jobs. Do you totally discount the qualitative data?

jmski52

Good News?

MsMorrisine

Yes.

There are people out there that think we can actually improve enough to pay down the debt. Ha.

roadrunner

Certainly, the normally reported establishment survey was a rounding success with +321K new jobs reported +44K in revisions. Definitely a report that got all the economy bulls hollering.

My only question is why does the rarely mentioned household survey only show +4K new jobs for November? Are the 2 reporting methods so divergent that 4K vs 321K is even reasonable? Both are seasonally adjusted.
Over the past 3 months the establishment survey has reported +835K jobs (278K/month) vs. +687K for household survey (229K/month). Just based on the average data it doesn't seem like the Nov +321K number
fits all that well. The average over the past 12 months is 228K jobs/month. Dec and January tend to be the weakest months with November one of the strongest. So the next 2 months should tail off quite a bit, possibly
well under 200K/month. The HH survey shows a 237K/month average over the past 12 months.

Household survey data November

Annual gains

The establishment survey also includes +62K jobs/month (+741K in jobs over the past 12 months) from the CES Birth Death Model (not seasonally adjusted)....these jobs are estimated by an algo, not from surveying. That's probably not an unreasonable amount of new businesses adding jobs, especially if the economy is growing. What was troubling was that during the 2008-2011 economic downturn, the same model was still adding in 500K to 900K new jobs per year even though the economy was undoubtedly contracting. Those jobs eventually had to be weeded out during later revisions.

Birth Death Model

roadrunner

I found this link at the bottom of the OP's original linked page.

CNBC financial editor Jeff Coxe - great jobs report? ........ Want fries with those jobs?

Good to see that not everyone out there missed the +4K HH survey Nov jobs gain. These guys put it out there....along with the fries. +77K total part time jobs for Nov? -150K full time jobs lost for November? As "old style" full time jobs get replaced with 20-30 hour part time jobs, these jobs reports should take on a totally different meaning. It's sort of like doing a 2-1 inverse split on a stock. Yeah, you have twice as many shares (or jobs) than before, but they are at half price (or half-pay).

ADP estimated 208K. GS 220K?

The October HH survey was off the charts at +683K. So +4K in November is an offset? Who responds to these surveys that they can swing so much?

For 2013 the CES survey reported +2.3 MILL new jobs. Yet the HH survey only shows +1.4 MILL?

miklia

<< <i>Good News? >>



aw man, I liked what you had written before! Agree 100% (as would anyone) that the quality of jobs are a big concern. Seems like the last 25 years has been a story of Rep admins losing jobs, and then Dem admins replacing them with lower quality alternatives. Not a great cycle.

jmski52

Seems like the last 25 years has been a story of Rep admins losing jobs, and then Dem admins replacing them with lower quality alternatives. Not a great cycle.

I agree with you. The country club repubs bowing to their chamber of commerce and corporate donors and the dems and their rich socialist backers scrounging for any vote no matter what promises they have to make. Not many principles on either side.

I propose a 90% tax on all political contributions. A 90% tax.

Or maybe a "progressive" tax on political contributions with 90% on the highest dollar bracket. If "progressive" is acceptable for personal income tax, it sure as heck ought to be just fine for political contributions.

Think of the boon it would be for Treasury. I think it would solve at least some of the problems right at the "common core" of many issues. I'd better stop while I'm ahead.

ebaytrader

<< <i>I see U6 (and all them U's) dropping like a rock. Interested to hear how this is 'bad'. Sometimes ya just gotta give credit where it's due and move on. >>



All of the BLS U-# include people that are still marginally attached to the work force (those working and looking for work). Let's take a look at workforce participation rate. That's the percentage of adults that hold any kind of a job. It's at the lowest percentage since the failed carter regime.. That number is indicative of people leaving the workforce in droves, many / most of whom end up in socialist welfare programs such as SNAP with 46.4 million enrollees in 8/2014.

Look at the Federal Reserve Economic Data for part time workers and that number has skyrocketed with added government intrusion into the relationship between worker and employer. As a result, fewer Americans have privately provided health insurance this year than the day obamacare was rammed down our throats according to a Gallup poll..

These numbers are horrific, and I'm more than willing to give credit to whom the credit is due.

derryb

but the dollar index is strong. Right about where it was before the Crash of 08.

jmski52

Remind me, what was the good economic news? How are the "market internals" looking, anyhow? Help me understand.

roadrunner

Stockman has some interesting FRED employment charts here - nothing that looks like good news though

The employment to working age (16-54) chart is impressive........ as is the shales to non-shales states jobs chart.