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The Eurozone Collapse, Arbitrage, and PM Dollar Prices
ebaytrader
Posts: 3,312 ✭✭✭
The Eurozone is slouching into a full blown economic collapse. The US economy continues in a structural depression. The dollar is, again, the go-to currency of the rightfully paranoid. Precious metals get hacked to death in dollars through forex arbitrage. The Japanese Yen is approaching Weimar territory. The Chinese shadow banking collapse is depressing that economy.
Where do we go from here? What do you want to own?
Your thoughts, please.
Discuss.
Where do we go from here? What do you want to own?
Your thoughts, please.
Discuss.
0
Comments
<< <i>Where do we go from here? >>
Given your assessment of the world, I would hazard that 'up' is the only answer.
<< <i>I'm booking a flight to the nearest planet....
I've never had you penciled-in on being on this one. Good luck.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm booking a flight to the nearest planet....
I've never had you penciled-in on being on this one. Good luck. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>Where do we go from here? >>
Given your assessment of the world, I would hazard that 'up' is the only answer. >>
How do you assess the economies of the World?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>This is what "recovery" looks like >>
I often wonder about how delusional one must be to utter such nonsense.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Well, no shortage of exagerration, hyperbole and sensationalism around here.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Saying that the world is NOT ending is pretty far from saying that it's perfect. >>
No more than saying the "recovery" is a public relations scam means the world is ending. If you get to exagerate the opinion of others, so do I.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The Eurozone is slouching into a full blown economic collapse. The US economy continues in a structural depression. The dollar is, again, the go-to currency of the rightfully paranoid. Precious metals get hacked to death in dollars through forex arbitrage. The Japanese Yen is approaching Weimar territory. The Chinese shadow banking collapse is depressing that economy.
Where do we go from here? What do you want to own?
Your thoughts, please.
Buy low, sell high. Average in, average out. Keep transaction fees to a minimum. Watch out for tax liability in every move you make. Stay away from bonds.
Precious metals get hacked to death, buy low - if you budget for the eventuality, you won't do too bad. If you jump with every market twitch, you're taking risks with your finances.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I'm booking a flight to the nearest planet....
I understand Venus is a bit on the warmish side this time of year.
And it has even fewer coins than Mars.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm booking a flight to the nearest planet....
I understand Venus is a bit on the warmish side this time of year.
And it has even fewer coins than Mars.
The coins on Mars are frozen at the Pole ... lots of classic & modern silver....Didn't you know, that's where the Hunt brothers stashed their unaccounted silver?
The global economy is different from the "good old days". Just as it was different 100 years ago and will be different 100 years from now. There us a problem--mankind. Human psychology is patternable and can be predicted. The poor (of which the world has more than ever) tend to seek religion in times of distress. Unfortunately the outcome is rarely positive.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm booking a flight to the nearest planet....
I understand Venus is a bit on the warmish side this time of year.
And it has even fewer coins than Mars.
But the women are also hot.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Forward in time
What do you want to own?
A diversified stock portfolio, some rental property, a small business, a reserve of US dollars, a big box of gold and silver, and other assets both tangible and "paper"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm booking a flight to the nearest planet....
I've never had you penciled-in on being on this one. Good luck. >>
World economies over the last few decades have built a false wealth with borrowed money. Create jobs, insure every ones health and hand a disability check to each sap that wakes up with a sore back.
All wonderful for the recipients but a tremendous cost to the shrinking taxpayer base.
As the workers can no longer carry the tax burden, the easy answer is to print a bunch more currency. Certainly that is better than a depression they will tell you.....but the cost will be enormous.
I give credit to Bernanke and his worldwide central bank cohorts for pulling off the greatest scam in the history of economics, but like Bernie Madoff, the music will stop and there will be hell to pay as the fifty years worth of fresh currency takes its horrible toll. Once interest rates soar as a result, the genie will not be rebottled.
....any seats left on SpaceX
<< <i>Where do we go from here?
Forward in time
What do you want to own?
A diversified stock portfolio, some rental property, a small business, a reserve of US dollars, a big box of gold and silver, and other assets both tangible and "paper" >>
Hmmm, you've been looking at my portfolio. The one thing I'd like to have in my back pocket that I lack now is a few acres of good quality farmland.
<< <i>Saying that the world is NOT ending is pretty far from saying that it's perfect. >>
Do you disagree with any of those basic assessments - that financial upheaval has spread to be a problem in every major economy? I doubt you could find any numbers suggesting otherwise.
BTW, the OP's glowingly positive outlook aside, do you think saying the yen is approaching Wiemar territory, is a credible statement?
<< <i>BTW, the OP's glowingly positive outlook aside, do you think saying the yen is approaching Wiemar territory, is a credible statement? >>
I need to read up a bit more of post WWI German inflation, but clearly the Yen is in deep trouble. Less than half the Japanese budget is paid through tax revenue, 60% is deficit expenditure. This is with interest rates at half of a percent and less.
We have so long marveled at the ability of the Japanese to maintain such a low rate, but it will not last forever. Imagine the stimulus, uh, monetization needed if rates hit even 3%, let alone low double digits as they are in Brazil. Fortunately they have a solid and stoic fabric of society that can endure a depression in peaceful fashion. Not every nation is as fortunate.
<< <i>
<< <i>Saying that the world is NOT ending is pretty far from saying that it's perfect. >>
Do you disagree with any of those basic assessments - that financial upheaval has spread to be a problem in every major economy? I doubt you could find any numbers suggesting otherwise. >>
I think the words "collapse" and "upheaval" and phrases like "hacked to death" overdramatize the reality of what's happening.... especially when they are "screamed into my face" every day
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Is someone whining because he can't separate the sheeple from their "going up" dollars by offering them shiny round trinkets?
The global economy is different from the "good old days". Just as it was different 100 years ago and will be different 100 years from now. There us a problem--mankind. Human psychology is patternable and can be predicted. The poor (of which the world has more than ever) tend to seek religion in times of distress. Unfortunately the outcome is rarely positive. >>
Im 'religious' and doing well financially thank God!
You see one of the keys is tithing, that is being generous what you have been blessed with, so you can be a blessing to others.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>Is someone whining because he can't separate the sheeple from their "going up" dollars by offering them shiny round trinkets?
The global economy is different from the "good old days". Just as it was different 100 years ago and will be different 100 years from now. There us a problem--mankind. Human psychology is patternable and can be predicted. The poor (of which the world has more than ever) tend to seek religion in times of distress. Unfortunately the outcome is rarely positive. >>
Im 'religious' and doing well financially thank God!
You see one of the keys is tithing, that is being generous what you have been blessed with, so you can be a blessing to others.
Not my point. Think about being a teenager in Germany in 1935 and who was the up and coming preacher? It is happening again.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Is someone whining because he can't separate the sheeple from their "going up" dollars by offering them shiny round trinkets?
The global economy is different from the "good old days". Just as it was different 100 years ago and will be different 100 years from now. There us a problem--mankind. Human psychology is patternable and can be predicted. The poor (of which the world has more than ever) tend to seek religion in times of distress. Unfortunately the outcome is rarely positive. >>
Im 'religious' and doing well financially thank God!
You see one of the keys is tithing, that is being generous what you have been blessed with, so you can be a blessing to others.
Not my point. Think about being a teenager in Germany in 1935 and who was the up and coming preacher? It is happening again. >>
My point is there are poor and wealthy who seek 'religion'.
Who is the up and coming preacher?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Japan's debt is mostly internal and is almost entirely in its own currency; this compares, for example, to Greece, whose debt is external and is denominated in a currency it does not control.
Keep in mind that Japan owns net foreign assets of about US$ 3 trillion. These will be gradually repatriated over the next 10 - 20 years to help cushion the cost of aging.
Although Japan will be a slow (or negative) growth economy, they will ultimately raise consumption tax to 10 %, and they will modestly cut social programs. This will be painful, but Japan has the will to do it and will get its house in order.
I've been following the Japanese economy for about 25 years, and during this period, the yen has traded in a rather wide band -- between about 80 - 150 yen per dollar. I would very strongly guess that it will continue to do so over the next 25 years; I would be very surprised to see it trade weaker than 150. in fact, it will probably tend to trade at the stronger end of this range, since the effect of Japan (and China) converting foreign dollar based assets to yen (and yuan) will tend to strengthen those currencies.
In any case, there is no parallel to Weimar.
<< <i>Regarding: clearly the Yen is in deep trouble
Japan's debt is mostly internal and is almost entirely in its own currency; this compares, for example, to Greece, whose debt is external and is denominated in a currency it does not control.
Keep in mind that Japan owns net foreign assets of about US$ 3 trillion. These will be gradually repatriated over the next 10 - 20 years to help cushion the cost of aging.
Although Japan will be a slow (or negative) growth economy, they will ultimately raise consumption tax to 10 %, and they will modestly cut social programs. This will be painful, but Japan has the will to do it and will get its house in order.
I've been following the Japanese economy for about 25 years, and during this period, the yen has traded in a rather wide band -- between about 80 - 150 yen per dollar. I would very strongly guess that it will continue to do so over the next 25 years; I would be very surprised to see it trade weaker than 150. in fact, it will probably tend to trade at the stronger end of this range, since the effect of Japan (and China) converting foreign dollar based assets to yen (and yuan) will tend to strengthen those currencies.
In any case, there is no parallel to Weimar.
I think this can kicking by Japan is disappointing though just the same. The Japanese people have a history of confronting overwhelming problems in a determined way . How long are they going to keep punting on this? They are farther down the rabbit hole than we are here in the states. Why not make a big courageous move to confront this and provide an example to the world?
I think there is going to be a big crisis down the road and being the first to get your house in order could put you in position to pick up the pieces after a lot of the carnage thats coming. Lots of assets will be available at fire sale prices for those with the foresight to make tough decisions while others sit paralyzed.
"Japan is really in no better or worse shape than the rest of the developed world. But is a few chapters further along in the story, which means it holds both explanatory and predictive power for most of the developed nations. This is why we should study it closely.
The mystery, as always, is how so many participants are willing to pretend all is normal with Japan; merrily buying and holding Japanese yen and government debt instruments.
In a nutshell, every single monetary, economic, fiscal and demographic trend is working against the very goals that the Bank of Japan, in cahoots with the Japanese government, is trying to attain."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
"Under the euro monetary union, each country has a percentage responsibility to pick up the tab if another country defaults.
The table below shows the current maximum level of guarantees for capital given by the Eurozone countries. The amounts are based on the European Central Bank capital key weightings.
There is not a single country in the European Monetary Union (EMU) that could afford to pick up its percentage of responsibility should another country fail."
This is why the European Monetary Union is doomed to fail. A bad apple will rot any good remaining apples. More than one of those apples is starting to sour - it only takes one.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And as was duscussed since the beginning if thus forum--and vehemently dismissed--what competition does the US dollar have on the global currency stage? >>
petrodollar status gives it the edge. slowly slipping away. But, to many, it's like inflation - they won't notice the little bit here, the little bit there until it's has overwhelmed them and their savings.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>
<< <i>And as was duscussed since the beginning if thus forum--and vehemently dismissed--what competition does the US dollar have on the global currency stage? >>
petrodollar status gives it the edge. slowly slipping away. But, to many, it's like inflation - they won't notice the little bit here, the little bit there until it's has overwhelmed them and their savings. >>
Anyone who sits idle and lets the world "happen" to them without "noticing" things is bound to be overwhelmed at some point. On the other hand, those who spend all their time, thoughts, and life energy on "noticing" everything going on on the global stage is also bound to be overwhelmed by huge matters beyond their control or rational concern
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry