Relative valuations---A picture says 1000 words
cohodk
Posts: 19,132 ✭✭✭✭✭
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
0
Comments
Where's that Bull pattern chart with the Uptrend, Bull Trap, Blowoff, Peak, etc things on it? Let's see how it compares to the charts you just posted.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
I thought the charts spoke for themselves. If someone types a few words over these charts they somehow have more meaning? Ive been trying for a decade to espouse the virtue of free thinking. YOU interpret the information given, dont rely on others' opinions. If you do not understand the information presented then try to learn it. If you choose not to learn it then do not belittle it.
I may present an opinion later in the day.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I personally look forward to, welcome and would appreciate that!
I really hate saying this as a metal bug, but I think buying physical gold and silver right now will be a flat, at best, investment for a few years. Ride the paper metal ups and down to build cash in the meantime, but then again there are better paper choices to ride than paper metals that should provide a better return.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
*I don't work a lot with charts. Thought I'd take a stab though.
One thing fer sure will be asked...
You are about to show me shadows of the things that have not happened, but will happen in the time before us, is that so?...
Before I draw nearer to that chart to which you point, `answer me one question. Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only?...
<< <i>...before I draw nearer to that chart to which you point, `answer me one question. Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only?... >>
I suspect the answer to those shadows is "both."
Even if those ratios start correcting the other way it doesn't have to be good news for PM bulls. One alternative is the Dow and Naz falling faster than PMs. That wouldn't but much fine for either side. That's what we saw through much of 2008.
Hopefully more time today. Today's activity looks good.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the curves show the stock market (especially tech but the whole market) bubble forming 1996 through 1999, crashing 2000-2002, consolidating 2003-5, bubbling again 2005-7, and crashing 2008-2011, and recovering toward new highs (bubbling?) 2012-2014.
Meanwhile, the metals were relatively flat 1996-2004, bottoming in 1999 or so, started to go up, took a dip in 2008/9, went into a very nice bubble peaking in 2011 and falling back to the parallel blue lines, which represent what? ranges of parity between, and support/resistance lines of the ratios?
The ratio could go sideways near the horizontal blue lines for quite some time as both kinds of markets oscillate with the news
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Late to this thread but I want to nominate that as the comment of the year (to date). There is more truth in that comment that any other comment previously stated on this site this year, and maybe longer. (Coming from someone who is constantly, and may be possibly perpetually misunderstood)
I do not see charts as predictive, but rather historical and open to speculation
I would also like to nominate this comment as the 1-B comment of the year (to date). Wes' is 1-A. I only would disagree with the "open to speculation" portion though. (I'm piecesofme, I have to disagree with something even if I agree with 99.9% of something
Charts are nothing more than a picture of what HAPPENED, not what will happen. There is no guarantee that because the lines, angles and candles lined up one way one time that if they do so again the same result will occur. To think so is ignorant and foolish.
<< <i>Charts are nothing more than a picture of what HAPPENED, not what will happen. There is no guarantee that because the lines, angles and candles lined up one way one time that if they do so again the same result will occur. To think so is ignorant and foolish. >>
On the flip side, history books are a valuable tool in future outlook. "Those who fail to learn from the past are destined. . ."
While I agree that the addition of "projection" lines to a chart is very subjective, charts can teach us something if we do the research of tying specific events to specific price moves. My use of charts is to see price reactions to the "stimuli." Seeing a chart of gold's reaction to QE1 told me exactly what to expect with QE2 and QE3.
Gary Dorsh makes some interesting charts that include events:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The thing is that silver was most depressed at the height of the tech stock bubble - a virtual double-whammy on your chart.
Now we're approaching the same type of imbalance, but the cause isn't rampant stock speculation, it's straight-out money creation with perhaps a bit of manipulation in the metals markets.
How this goes from this point won't necessarily parallel the tech bubble blow-off. Stocks are much higher this time, and silver isn't as low either. The main difference is that stocks have risen because of QE, and for some reason silver has not.
There is a disconnect, whatever the reason. If QE is really stopped in the US, the stock market's gonna throw a living fit, and when it does - silver might shake that gorilla off it's back.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If QE is really stopped in the US, the stock market's gonna throw a living fit, and when it does - silver might shake that gorilla off it's back. >>
The FED opened a can of worms it cannot close. This is what offers great promise to low purchase price metal. It has been proven once before.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I may present an opinion later in the day.
Come on - impress me
Cheers, >>
I'm terribly sorry if I impress you. You poor soul.
But youre gonna have to wait another day as I am extremely busy impressing others.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That's cure for some powerful delusion?, lol... Doubtful...lol...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
BuyIng now sure a considerable less risky than 20,24,28,30,32,35 & higher etc...
Prolly in middle range now, downside 10 upside 20....
<< <i>For all intensive purposes all phyzz silver bought in the last 9 years is underwater or at best even, or not worth selling...
That's cure for some powerful delusion?, lol... Doubtful...lol... >>
Depends I suppose, on what nation that you are posting from.
<< <i>
<< <i>Patients are a virtue.
"Patience is" a virtue.
Cheers, >>
Hindsight is 50-50.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Is the Silver Trade of a Lifetime Coming? or already here?...
"SILVER: November 2014 Silver Volume per Netdania as of the 24th ; it is currently at 243,748,333 (and rising). These are very likely 5,000 ounce contracts which would be the equivalent of 1.218 Trillion ounces, or 1,000 years+ of global annual mine supply." Note that over 1T ozs paper traded I less than one month, in a 1 Boz annual physical market.
Cheers, >>
Netdania volume is a mix of several different inputs. It's not just the 5K oz silver futures contract volume. That might only be a small part of it. The last time I tried to correlate Gold volume during NY hours on Netdania to Comex contracts traded, it didn't make any sense. Amazing the Dr. Bo doesn't know this. He has been discredited into oblivion the past 1-1/2 years. He has so many incorrect bottom calls since April 2013 that he needs butt replacement therapy. That's one guy that no one should be quoting as a source. I'd put Zero Hedge at 100X more reliable. The irony of all this is that Bo's very last incorrect call will precede him getting the actual bottom correct. And he will become a cult silver guru to newbies because of having "nailed the bottom."
<< <i>Yeah, I wasn't sure if I should post that one, but liked the "title".
Cheers, >>
Nice company you keep.
Still maintaining that patience?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear