Coin Market Volatility vs. Metals/Stock Market Volatility

C0inCollect0r

Hi folks,

With all of the recent swings in the metals markets, I was curious as to your thoughts on how the volatility in the coin market compares in contrast? Obviously this is a very general question, which I realize. It seems that the numismatic market seems significantly more "stable" than the gold/silver markets on average - at least if you look at auction prices realized for relatively "standard" numismatic coins over the past 5 years or so. The PCGS Coin Market graphs are the best thing I have seen personally when it comes to trying to measure the current "value" of the "coin market" and they seem to also indicate much less volatility on a percentage basis than we have seen in stocks/gold/silver over the past few years.

Do you think standard numismatic coin prices could realistically rise or fall 30-40-50-60% in the way gold/silver has over the course of 1-2 years? Or is the market more "solid" on average? We of course saw the dramatic rise and fall in the coin market in the 1980's - Is that something you would realistically anticipate occurring again?

Any thoughts would be interesting to hear.

dbcoin

PCGS coin certs in October have fallen off the cliff. Down 50K from last year at this time, a $1M shortfall. I suspect Modern submissions will be severely impacted going forward. Why submit an SAE worth $16 in MS69?
As far as rare coins go, they are probably more correlated with the stock market which is at record levels.

bestmr

Possibly. It depends on what people are buying. I've stopped my coin buying completely and am just buying silver with my coin money. If enough people did the same, it could drive prices down.

LindeDad

<< <i>Possibly. It depends on what people are buying. I've stopped my coin buying completely and am just buying silver with my coin money. If enough people did the same, it could drive prices down. >>



and think it already has.

MGLICKER

I think the economic squeeze will be on middle class coin buyers for some time.

Prices of classic, properly graded coins will probably not drop substantially in price, but I do not believe that they will come close to keeping up with inflation.

291fifth

Collectibles in general are going to have a hard time in the near future. The middle class is really getting hammered and the income necessary to support the purchase of collectibles is just not going to be there.

Think out-of-control medical insurance costs, out-of-control college costs, and, unless you are the CEO, meager pay increases.

There is also the issue of a rapidly aging population of people who are interested in collectibles vs. younger people who do little more than stare at their I-phones all day long.

DeliaBug

I am of the opinion that the volatility in the markets does not affect coins because, well, coins are not very liquid.

If I had 500 shares of 500 different companies I could sell everything with the click of a mouse and be done with it. With coins, one venue is not the best for everything and even if there was one, it will take time to receive payment. And depending upon the coins, with consignment and marketing that time could be a six month window. Personally, I have sold houses faster than some consignments have taken.

TwoSides2aCoin

Coins are a hobby. The market around them is another story. That's the "bidness". The industry around that is another story. That's the business. The business around that is another story. That's the outsider's (MEDIA and ANALYSIS of it's (the INDUSTRY's health and well being). Metals and stocks are business related. There's really not much correlation beyond that.
Coins are boring as bat ___. So is bullion. Now standing high on a roof installing a stone coated roof in the wind… that's some volatile ____. Who knows where the wind blows or which direction it comes from, but… everyone has to eat and everyone has to ____. And Modern _____ is still purchased every day by someone at the U.S. Mint, Craigslist, Brick n Mortars, Ebay, Amazon, Alibaba, coin shows , back and forth between what we call "hobbyists" or barterers.

And look at the market. Now look at the business. Now go look at a coin, then get back to me. That's your assignment for the day.


What is volatility ? You can still get you a presidential dollar at the coin shop for under five dollars. And you can still get a silver dollar for just under twenty, if you can find a brick and mortar shop willing to sell you one for that. So at what juncture is a silver dollar NOT worth it's weight in silver ? And what is a dollar worth ? Nobody hoarding silver has staked claim at having traded their stuff for groceries. And when they do , I will tell you the SHTF. In so far as that goes, I think the hobby is safe from harm's way.

It's always cash that reigns in the world of business.

In my little world, it's coins.


I can't even buy them at face value from the mint anymore. There are just none made of silver or gold available at spot price, either.
Could it be that people just THINK it's worth more ? So it is ?

EastonCollection

Nothing in my mind will change my thoughts on the rare coin market. Basically, I feel that rare coins are based on supply and demand. Obviously, if there is little demand compared to supply, then prices will go down. On the other hand, if there is no supply and large demand, then prices will go up. There is some price that is attributable to the price of gold and silver in coins but in the majority of the cases not a significant amount. IN the Gardner auction last week, there were some prices realized that were very strong, some about right and some weak.
If you acquire coins that have great eye appeal and are very desirable then others will want them when you want to sell.

Hope that helps on coin market volatility.

ricko

If you collect coins as a hobby, then volatility is not very important. If it is your business, it is very important. Collectors can just wait out high prices......dealers need business. Cheers, RickO

AMRC

I think coin sales have slowed down with PM going ever lower. AS PM's move up, so does interest in coins. When they move down (especially this much and this fast - historically speaking) people are going to pause.

I will keep buying until I run out of money. The only times investments have made real money was when I was being a contrarian. The downside? Is not knowing when the bottom is.

C0inCollect0r

It seems that the last month or two has been pretty slow/down for the coin market - I wonder to what extent that had to do with the continued dip in metals.

410a

.............Supply can create Demand..............period.....

291fifth

<< <i>.............Supply can create Demand..............period..... >>



The great silver dollar release from the Treasury in 1962-63 is an outstanding example of this. Prior to this release the Morgan dollar series was not very popular with collectors.

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>

<< <i>.............Supply can create Demand..............period..... >>



The great silver dollar release from the Treasury in 1962-63 is an outstanding example of this. Prior to this release the Morgan dollar series was not very popular with collectors. >>



Thank God, the Goverment saved them, eh?