For The Centering Guys... Rarity/Population Discussion

mattyc_collection

So we all see how many listings these days tout "Centered" in the title or description. It seems more often than not it's false advertising, but nonetheless it speaks to the rarity and resultant premium that centered cards command. This has led me to try and estimate the true number of perfectly centered examples of cards I love. Granted this will be inexact and is more about ball parking the number of centered examples. It helps me gauge how few are out there of what I'm looking for; so if I was hoping for a 7-ish card but there's only maybe 100 beautifully centered specimens out there across all grades, I then realize I better jump on that gorgeously centered 5 or 4 when it appears and if I get lucky later, so be it.

I am going to start with my two favorite cards, namely the M101 Ruth RC and 52T Mick, then head onto other classics as work allows...

CASE 1
M101-4/5 Babe Ruth Rookie Card
- Total Graded Population of PSA + SGC (accounting for crossovers) = ~ 85
- Based on the ones I can account for and just overall feel for the card, I believe about 1 in 10 maximum could be deemed in the "great centering range."
- Thus in all likelihood there are, at most, 10 fantastically centered Ruth rookies on planet earth.
* Another aspect of the Ruth RC is the dreaded horizontal print line, which appears on the overwhelming majority of examples. One would have to assume that of the roughly 10 Ruths possessed of elite centering, at least a few also have the print line.

CASE 2
1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle
- Total Graded Population of PSA + SGC = 1556.
- I would imagine this card has a very high amount of crossovers and resubs, so let's conservatively say there are 1400 discrete examples in slabs.
- This card is as horrendous as the Ruth RC in terms of centering, perhaps as bad as 1 in every 15 examples being in the premium centering zone.
- I would not balk if some felt that 1 in 20 examples of this card had next to zero tilt and 55-45 or better both ways.
- Thus in all likelihood there are, at most, only 100 truly well-centered 1952 Topps Mantles to be had across all grades.

Next up, 51B Mick, 54 Aaron, 68 Ryan, 76 Brett... What should make the 51 Mick Rookie very low pop is if one is seeking both centering and no vertical print lines (granted these ones affect a smaller percentage of Mantle Rookies than the horizontal line affects Ruth Rookies. The Aaron should be extremely low pop if one is seeking centering and no tilt. Ditto for the Ryan, and the Ryan RC pop would shrink if one wants a clean, PD-free Mets circle area. The 76 Brett may wind up extremely low pop for those seeking centering, low tilt, and no smudging.

When parsing the population data like this, it goes to show how looking at the total pop can be very misleading, if one is seeking a card with standout centering. A card may seem plentiful at first glance, but in actuality the true number of specimens one is looking for is much, much less.

Rudedawg

Very interesting. I have become a "centering guy" over time, but couldn't be considered a "rarity" collector. However, in starting my 52 Topps set, I wanted to get as close to 50/50 as possible and found it was difficult as there was only about 1 in every 75-100 cards that I would even consider. I am targeting to get HOF'ers in lower grade PSA holders and your info. brings my future purchases into perspective. For instance, there are about 500 Pafko's in PSA 3 and 4, but I feel 1 in 10 is an accurate ratio of those which are actually greatly centered. 50-60 in that grade doesn't leave much for everyone.

JWBlue

I am looking for an 1986 Topps Lenny Dykstra PSA 10 with great centering.

It is a low population card with only 12 in existence.

The centering on the 1986 Topps is as bad as any release. I am starting to believe the cards being off center was intentional.

I have only seen one PSA graded 10 and the centering wasn't close to 50/50.

JBrules

Very interesting topic and look forward to this discussion. Thanks to this forum and Net54 I have learned a lot about the subtleties of what to look for when purchasing both graded and non-graded cards. Since getting back into collecting at the start of this year I have morphed from not looking at centering when purchasing to looking at centering first.

Sorry to move slightly off topic of this thread. On the topic of centering on 1970 Topps cards how does the top-bottom centering work. Does the bottom measure from the bottom of the letter y in Johnny or does it start with the other letters (Johnn)? When I look at my PSA 8 Bench I am never sure how good the overall centering is. Opinions appreciated and thanks for starting this thread.

otwcards

1970 Topps (much like 1974 Topps Football) has always been treated differently by different graders. In theory, the measuring point should be the bottom of the vertical white bar between the position and the name in conjunction with the top white border bar. However, I've seen other cases when it is graded as "normal" if the top border is equal to the edge borders and also in some cases, using the bottom of the extending lower case name letters (g, j, p, q, y, z).

Accordingly, it is not uncommon to find examples that are graded MINT or GEM that do not have the ideal centering required for the grade.

otwcards

With regard to centering, try finding a well centered 1948 Leaf Chuck Bednarik that actually hasn't been whacked. It may be one of the toughest Hall of Fame rookie cards in all four sports to find centered. This is the best that I've owned and one of the best that I've ever seen:

JBrules

Thanks Scott that explains a lot regarding the centering on the 1970's.

Stone193

In the late 80s - early 90s, I would accept OCs and thought 60/40 was very nice.

Now? I try and try and try to get near perfect centering.

This is my 3rd Richardson; even had an 8.5 and I'm still not totally satisfied.

KendallCat

Funny that center is becoming a bigger topic, and I know 10+ years ago when I started buying graded cards I looked for sharp corners and then centering and color, gloss... I now find myself looking at centering first and then to corners and other attributes. I have noticed that sellers are placing more of a premium on centering in descriptions, and I am seeing far too many sellers touting perfect centering on cards where to the naked eye you can tell they are not. Some sellers have it on every card or put 8+++ on cards that are not even close.

Frozencaribou

Centering is great and all, but really, who's putting on who. People with money trying to create scarcity through criteria that any normal person would find amusing. DPeck's Hulk Hogan threads, Bubblebath girls' 1978 Topps fetish, that guy with the perfect 1988 Topps football set... I am part of the "perfect card quest" world we live in too, but sometimes it gets a bit difficult to buy into the newest philosophies that separate perfect cards from everyone else's.

-Nathanael

mattyc_collection

No one here is trying to "create" scarcity and certainly no one is disingenuously "putting anyone on." Rather, the facts are the facts. If one likes centered cards-- and hence why I stated those precise words in the thread ("For The Centering Guys")-- they just weren't manufactured back in the day with high quality standards. Hence a well-centered card from the 70's or earlier is much rarer than a poorly centered one.

If one goes in search of a dead centered #311, or M101 Ruth, or Paige SP, or Clemente, even with a big stack of cash to burn, it is still a hard card to find. Some collectors like that challenge; it makes the hunt for a card fun; it also pleases some collectors' eyes to look at, versus a poorly centered card. Others can disagree and seek their own version of what the ideal card is for their collections; to each his own. There is definitely room in the collecting world for a wide array of tastes and philosophies, and these are not at all in competition with one another.

To be clear, this discussion is not intended to proselytize, or ask anyone not inclined to subscribe to or buy into a new collecting direction; many collectors just clearly place a higher value on centering, based on their aesthetic sensibilities, than even the TPGs do. Anyone else is free to choose cards based on their own taste and criteria. One of the purposes of these very boards is to talk with collectors who share certain tastes and sensibilities, and also get exposed to new tastes.

I will never be a wrestling card guy, for example, but I admire Dpeck's and others' passion for those cards, and enjoy reading about all the idiosyncrasies of the cards and what makes some harder to find in attractive states than others; so I don't process those threads as an attempt to create scarcity or get me to become a buyer of wrestling cards-- though sometimes enthusiasm is infectious and one definitely can get put onto something new that they adopt, which is cool. Keeping an open mind never hurts.

Whatever one's taste, long as the cards are a source of fun and chill, mellow escape

Matt

Stone193

<< <i>Centering is great and all, but really, who's putting on who. People with money trying to create scarcity through criteria that any normal person would find amusing. DPeck's Hulk Hogan threads, Bubblebath girls' 1978 Topps fetish, that guy with the perfect 1988 Topps football set... I am part of the "perfect card quest" world we live in too, but sometimes it gets a bit difficult to buy into the newest philosophies that separate perfect cards from everyone else's.

-Nathanael >>

Hiya Nathanael

<< <i>People with money trying to create scarcity through criteria that any normal person would find amusing. >>

Isn't this a bit insulting?

I'm only speaking for myself.

I just like centered cards.

The 63F BB set is a major challenge to find centered. I just personally thought it would be cool to try and find all 66 cards well/perfectly centered instead of moving on to another set.

For me, a major part of the enjoyment in my hobby is the "hunt" - I'm not excited about competing or amassing numerous sets.

Ya know? There's no "One" way to collect. Isn't that what makes it fun?

mattyc_collection

Stone,

What have been the hardest cards in the set you are building to find centered, and secondly which card in the set do you think is the lowest pop in a dead-centered state?

Stone193

<< <i>Stone,

What have been the hardest cards in the set you are building to find centered, and secondly which card in the set do you think is the lowest pop in a dead-centered state? >>

The ones that I have in my file are as follows:

#12, 14, 15, 19, 22, 26, 33, 40, 41

Some I wonder if any were cut centered? We'll just have to see.

Besides reviewing the entire set from time to time, I check ebay regularly for centered cards.

There's a really nice PSA 9 Albie Pearson #19 - I would rather pay for an 8 - but will take the 9 if super centered. This one is really nice. But, the seller wants 299 bucks!

I've been working on this set since 2004!

Frozencaribou

Sorry, guys. Didn't mean to offend anyone. I wasn't implying that your arguments were duplicitous. Everyone has their collecting focus that they are passionate about.

As I said in my original post, I'm part of this mentality as well. Some days I am a bit more critical of this age of card collecting than other days. I'll keep my cynicism to myself in the future. Carry on.

Stone193

<< <i>Sorry, guys. Didn't mean to offend anyone. I wasn't implying that your arguments were duplicitous. Everyone has their collecting focus that they are passionate about.

As I said in my original post, I'm part of this mentality as well. Some days I am a bit more critical of this age of card collecting than other days. I'll keep my cynicism to myself in the future. Carry on. >>

You have as much right as anyone to voice your opinion and I would not want to say anything that would keep you from that Nathanael.

If ya think about it? Collectors are a special breed of normal and nuts.

Stone193

edit: somehow I got a double hit?

IndianaJones

One of the highest compliments paid to me was back in the late 90s by Bill Mastro. Whenever an item piqued my fancy in their behemoth auction catalogs that were saturated back then with tip top quality stuff, I would get on the phone and absolutely pepper the person I was speaking to with 20 questions. This was in the days before high quality scans, though the catalogs were the finest in the hobby. Anyway, he mentioned to someone who told me later that I was PSYCHOTIC. Yep, Mr. Mastro hit my nail on the head. I was and I am psychotic when it comes to condition, including centering, of the items I really, really like.

Twenty-five years ago this year Bill sold me a positively breathtaking and almost hopelessly rare (in VG-EX, or better) 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle. Now, the centering for the 53s was usually pretty good, but there were still quite a few that were off the mark, so to speak, besides all the usually Stahl Meyer problems of product staining, stamped inventory lot number, over-enthusiastic cleaning by a sanitary mom resulting in part of Mickey being rubbed off, and an assortment of creases whose many lines resembled a Rand-McNally road map of New Jersey! Well, the printer changed how the cards were cut in 1954, and this remained the same for 1955. My point---trying to find a centered Stahl-Meyer Franks Mantle from 1954 or 1955, or anyone in the set for that matter of course, is a losing and discouraging proposition. It can happen, like the Cubs winning another World Series.

Cut to short, the only and I mean ONLY, problem with this '54 Stahl-Meyer Mick was a puny half-inch front crease beginning half way down the left side front of the card. Some might even call it a spider, but it graded out a VG-EX 50 by a very respected and commendable TPG that could be mentioned in the same breath as PSA. Anyway, the beautiful Mantle is dead centered, bull's eye down the middle. You can easily see from the corners' relation to the printed box frame circumventing the front of the card that had the cut been executed a few microns this way or that, it would have killed the perfect centering. That sounds as if "duh, of course it would!"; but in the case of a Stahl-Meyer, there's nary a margin for visible error before the naked eye discerns off-kilter centering. Some how, some way, the printer got it just right.

It's so compellingly beautiful I put it right on the cover of my book, along with two other swell regionals.

So, I guess the psychotic in me fully understands this discussion. Please keep it going. ---Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)

mattyc_collection

That is an awesome post, my man. I know the card of which you speak. Titanic acquisition.

CenteredMantles

If you couldn't tell from my handle, centering is always my first priority when buying cards. I can live with other imperfections but the centering is just where my eyes gravitate toward first.

When I was debating my recent '52 Topps Mantle pick up this thread really pushed me over the edge and made it a must buy. I have been searching for one the entire year and have seen a number of copies show up in many grades. The majority of cards were plagued by poor centering and tilt even in mid grade. My budget only allowed for a 1 which made the search even tougher. I think the original post was spot on with just how few truly well centered copies exist. If you call it an even split over all grades we are maybe looking at 5-10 cards per grade. After giving this thread a read I realized I had to look at more grades and luckily a 1.5 came up that was centered. Knowing there are so few made the decision to buy pretty easy.

esquiresports

You ratios look on point, but also consider the number of cards that have likely not been graded. I would guess that 10-20% of the total 1952 Topps Mantle population has been graded at this point. For a card like a 1976 Ryan, maybe 2-5%. There are a ton of raw sets out there held by people who have not been active in the hobby during the TPC era or who just are not motivated to get their cards graded.

miwlvrn

Holy grail of the centering finds? I challenge you to locate a centered 1973 O-Pee-Chee #1 Ruth/Aaron/Mays.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>Holy grail of the centering finds? I challenge you to locate a centered 1973 O-Pee-Chee #1 Ruth/Aaron/Mays. >>


The one on the right is likely the best I've ever seen: COMC

mattyc_collection

Very pumped about this little guy-- the hunt for a 65 Mick centered like this took a long time. The card just hardly ever comes up centered like this.



Also got around to doing a better scan of one of my favorite centered cards, that 70sTopps helped me with a ways back; will always be thankful for this Ryan. The scan I had never did this card justice. Actually "upgraded" to this 8 from an 8.5 which I sold.

Rudedawg

Really nice cards. The Mantle is fantastic and it's one of my favorites of his. For me, that centering and overall clean surface take the eyes away from the actual grade and corners.

mattinglymint23

nice cards DM23! as always!

I am "squarely" in the centering camp as a matter of preference - i do the same for comics - to me they are diamonds in the rough - the Indiana's stahl Mick and DM23's 65 Mick are classic examples of what is so intriguing...

just imagine the statistical forces at work to so infrequently strike well centered example, like the 65 mick, off the press then to have it sent out in the world where some kid, overjoyed by even pulling a mantle, didn't even consider how lucky he (or she) had been! and for that card to have taken on a history and accented its centering with "bumps and bruises" only to be sought out again by an appreciative new owner - its just one way of chasing the hobby.

I do the same with comics - it makes the hunt enjoyable and even more satisfying. it can drive you nuts, but its no fun if the centers just all show up in your LCS or mailbox one day - to each his own as others have said.

for the corners and edges guys - I'm sure the thrill of knowing that pristine cards could cause finger stabs or paper cuts is a driving force - don't knock the centering guys for their same fantastical ambitions!

mattyc_collection

The well-centered SGC 6.5 53B Mick went for 2750 before the juice at REA last night. Very strong price. That shatters the PSA 6 VCP data and is well higher than what the PSA 7s have been fetching. A centering fan is probably very happy right now.

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