Classic Commems Collectors?

chiefbob

I saw an ad for the Rosen Numismatic Advisory and he states he has a list of 24 undervalued classic silver commems. I've seen his ad for years but don't know his track record with recommendations.

He claims, as some others have, that a bull market is forming for coins and these 24 should gain some good premiums.

Do you collect classic commems? What's your take on buying the ones in MS65 that were in the $$$ during the 1980s then nose-dived? Good to pick up?

Cheers,
Bob

shorecoll

I still collect classics, although my set is almost finished. Right now you are catching a falling knife, and it is still falling. Logic says it should be closer to the bottom, but who knows? Look at the price range on eBay (yes I know it's far from perfect) for a particular type coin. I very much know that quality varies from coin to coin, but there are some types with a typical white MS66 with a 300% spread from dealer to dealer. Some it's obviously a difference in quality, but some it isn't.

BillJones

I have a complete type set of the classic commemoratives, and have watched the prices fall from a point when I would have made a nice return to where I would now lose money.

I enjoy these coins, which do have an interesting history behind each one, but I am under no illusions. With more and more "collectors" thinking that the only coins that are worthwhile are the key dates, the classic commemoratives don't have much to offer beyond the Hawaiian, Spanish Trail, Hudson and maybe the Panama - Pacific half dollars. The Lafayette Dollar could be included, but many collectors have shown a distain for that coin for as long as I've been a collector, which is over 50 years.

NOTE: I put the "collectors" in parenthesis because I think that people who think that key dates are all there is somehow don't have a really strong commitment to the hobby strictly as a pastime. I think that they are mostly investment driven.

chiefbob

Thanks, Leon and Bill, for your insightful comments.

Bob

ms71

Since the peak in 1989, the classics have typically declined by over 75%, well over in some cases. Bill mentioned the keys-only "collector", and I whole-heartedly agree that this type of participant just isn't the collector who formed such a huge segment of the hobby when we were younger. He/she is mostly an "accumulator" of coins that he/she feels are likely to appreciate in value. To them, the focus is on the market; not the pleasure and education that's derived from immersion in the hobby. I don't know why the focus has shifted so markedly. To me, it doesn't bode particularly well for the hobby's future. Seems like these extremely interesting artifacts are becoming/have become just another commodity for so many people now into coins.

kaz

I wouldn't buy any of them as an "investment". I buy ones that have designs that I like, or that have connections to historical events that interest me. That being said, with the market for them being in a relative slump (as I understand it), there are opportunities to acquire examples of these that I actually appreciate without blowing my budget. This thread needs a pic (recent buy from the BST, MS 65 old fat holder. booming luster. thanks to Collectorcoins)

chiefbob

<< <i>I wouldn't buy any of them as an "investment". I buy ones that have designs that I like, or that have connections to historical events that interest me. That being said, with the market for them being in a relative slump (as I understand it), there are opportunities to acquire examples of these that I actually appreciate without blowing my budget. This thread needs a pic (recent buy from the BST, MS 65 old fat holder. booming luster. thanks to Collectorcoins)


Love the toning on that, Kaz. Are those die polishing marks on the obv and rev?

kaz

no, not die polish; just streaky toning in areas. In the photos the toning looks darker than it actually is in hand.

Mowgli

I had a complete set of these that I put together about 15-20 years ago. They had all been slabbed 63-64 but I broke them out and put them in the Dansco because I liked the look. Sold them within the past year in the Dansco for a reasonable profit considering I expected to lose money. You never know because wisdom dictated that even if they were slabbed I should have lost money. I liked collecting these and didn't consider whether they would be a good investment because there are more of them than there are collectors. The increase in value for the Hawaiian and the Spanish Trail was where the profit came from.

kaz

Good point Mowgli; sometimes strong gains in 1 or 2 coins can make up for price weakness elsewhere in a set. Glad you came out ahead.

bolivarshagnasty

I'm with kaz on this. Not going to do a complete set. Just collecting nice originals in the designs that I like.

SeattleSlammer

I'm with Kaz/BSNasty, just collecting some here and there that I especially like.
Still, if my pockets were deeper I might just try to shoot the moon...

jcping

Nicely toned (does not have to be monster toning) classical commend can still move. They are in trouble at 3X to 5X sheet price that you have to find the right person(s) to buy them. Of course, you can always use auction house(s) but expect they share 15%+ of your revenue which could be 90% of your profit.

This coin market acts as stock market sector rotation now. Classic comment isn't a hot sector now. If you truly enjoy them, it is time to pick up a few great eye appealing aces. Once the sector is hot (all dogs have their own day), you have to pay much more to the same coin. Just my two cents.

Eagleguy

I have a full 144 silver set and most of the 11-piece gold set (which doesn't include the $50 Pan Pacs). I love the series but I've got a lot of money tied up in them. I've been considering selling them but I probably stand to lose a lot of money by doing so. You could make an argument that even more than 24 are "undervalued", depending on your definition of the word, but that does not imply an upswing for those issues, in all grades, is going to happen any time soon. However, high-grade and superbly toned examples continue to do well.

JH

shylock

Love the series, but if you are talking money it's made on high end upgrades.

sparky64

I had no idea what a classic commem coin was in the '80's. Must have been an interesting time.

I also love the series but only collect by designs or history that interests me which means about a dozen or so. Raw and certified. Never for resale.

I've noticed in the last few years that I was able to pick up a few that used to be out of my reach, like the Oregon and Maine. I thought I was getting away with something but soon realized that there is currently very little interest.
That's great news for straight collecting. Granted they were white examples.

High grade, eye appealing toners are another story. They seem to remain strong and rightfully so.

What is your interest in the series, Bob? Purely collecting or with an eye on resale?

LindeDad

One of my worst series to get back out of. Built the fifty piece set and still trying get out.
About the only one worst is the modern business strike gold.

BillJones

<< <i>I had no idea what a classic commem coin was in the '80's. Must have been an interesting time. >>



No really if you were a collector you couldn't afford them. The series was heavily promoted with the totally bogus argument that you could compare the mintages of regular business strike coins with those of the classic commemoratives. The flaw in that argument was that the business strike coins were used, worn down to nothing and withdrawn for circulation. Most of the commemoratives were saved in collections and not used. Therefore the survival rates were much higher.

Walter Breen and Anthony Swiatek wrote a pioneering work on the old commemorative coins. The chapters about the coins were wonderful, but in there back there was an "investment projection" section showed where the prices of these coins were going to be in 1985 and 1990. Every issue was projected to show HUGE gains. How about a Lafayette Dollar at $75,000 + in 1900? How about a Cleveland commemorative, which has had a quiet market for years at $675 +? The whole thing was a joke and was totally self-serving for the people who published the book, First Coin Investors.

"Investment programs" were used to get people to spend "X" number of dollars per month to build commemorative coin collections at wildly inflated prices. Many issues were selling for three to four times what they sell for today. Then the whole coin market bubble broke with the commemoratives leading the way, and a lot of people lost a lot of money. It was one of these busts that gave the numismatic industry a black eye.

No. collecting commemorative coins in the 1980s was not fun if you were a collector on a budget who really liked the series. The "bigger fools" pushed you out, and given what happened it was a blessing in disguise.

kaz

Bowers, in his book "The Expert's Guide to Collecting and Investing in Rare Coins" has a good chapter on Classic Commem's and their market swings. He explores price trends of several coins in the series from time of release to about 2004. For example, at the height of the "Boom" in 1990 MS65 Hawaiians were selling for about 10k. By 2004 they were at about 4k. Not much seems to have changed in the intervening 10 years, a glance at HA prices realized shows 65's selling for 4k to 5k.
Bowers concludes the chapter by basically saying that buying Classic Commems for profit is a gamble, and modifies his usual advice to buy nice for the grade coins and hold them for the long term to "buy (Commems) when the market is slow " and think about selling when "the market is unreal." Unfortunately no one can predict when "unreal" markets will happen and with the last one apparently being about a quarter century ago I don't think I will be subscribing to the "Commemoratives: the Coming Boom" newsletter anytime real soon. (OTOH, doesn't that mean the market is due to skyrocket soon? After 24 years? I think I'll just sit here and stare into the swirling luster of my New Rochelle half and see if it sends me a sign... )

note: I was typing while Bill Jones was posting his message; interesting perspective on people making market projections.

yellowkid

My experience with really nicely toned pieces was that they are easy to sell, albeit the market is smaller than for regular Mint issues. Collect them because you enjoy them, not for investment purposes,

claychaser

I like the series, but I see some reasons that the market is depressed and prices low:

1. The flood of dipped out "dreck" that is really not very attractive.
2. The plethora of post 1930 issues, dates and mintmarks. I call these the "dirty thirties" issues, many of them were just over the top as to why they were issued.
3. The absolute tidal wave of modern commem issues that dilutes focus away from the cool issue.
4. The really poor designs of many of the modern commems. Capital Visitor Center anyone?
5. Political correctness taking away from the series. A female on the Boy Scouts coin?

I decided to take a different path and just collect the "Pre-Dirty-Thirties" coins. OK, I got a Spanish Trail too, just because I like it.

Here's a few:

MFH

I put together a complete 144 set as well, plus the two Norse Medals.... Some of the gold but
nowhere near complete.

I had never seen a complete set before, and I was determined to complete it in 64 for the keys
and 65-67 for the more common dates. I ended up selling it thru the BST here, by a dealer who
brokered the deal for his client, JB3 collection. My coins were of similar quality as his, he had a 65
Lafayette where I only had a 64, so after some juggling, he ended up with a top ranked set, and my
asking price was exactly what I had into the set, otherwise, there was no deal ... ( listening to stories
of 20% below Sheet, was met with "buy from someone else"... )

For the life of me, I just do not understand why this beautiful collection of coins isn't received any better
than it is. I started out just trying to complete the 50 coin type set my Grandfather had started back in
the 1930's. I went a tad overboard ... Typical of my collecting habits.

valente151

Due to growing up in York County, Maine; I have a love of the Maine and York commems. I buy them when I find them pretty, and hold on to them.

On commems in general, I think it's been said many many times before, but I'll repeat it. Most of the coins are uber common as white specimens, the key to the series is finding original coins that are pretty, which you'll find are quite hard to find for many of the coins, and when you do, they'll cost you.

Here are my two favorite pieces, 1 York and 1 Maine.

mozin

My Classic Commemorative set looks much better in the NGC Registry since I have a number of NGC coins, most with the CAC sticker. Had I known about the PCGS Registry earlier, I would have restricted my purchases to PCGS only. It does not appear to be worth it to try crosses to PCGS, because the auction prices realized do not show enough holder price difference to justify the expense to cross. The new PCGS 1% for crossovers pretty much locks Commem crossovers out.

My collection of NGC PL Classic Commemoratives is extensive, with duplicates in most all issues ever labeled prooflike by NGC. Because of this, I neglected to buy a number of common issues in PCGS holders. Most of my Commems are blast white, because I don't much like the toning I see on most Commems. Larry Shepherd was most instrumental in my collecting Commems, and he steered me to blast white examples back in 1998. I like to see every detail on the coins. Harry Laibstain's book INVESTING, COLLECTING & TRADING IN CERTIFIED COMMEMORATIVES has been very helpful to me over the years.

Where else can you complete a series of fifty, and then expand the same series to 144?

lcoopie

Valente151, very nice

MFH

<< <i>Valente151, very nice >>



Plus 1

kiyote

I should probably start a MS-65 or 66 collection. This was my area of major interest in the 90s. It's amazing how much prices have fallen. Lots of issues can be had in MS66 for under $200. Even scarcer issues that used to bring $800 in MS65 now go for $250.

LindeDad

<< <i>I should probably start a MS-65 or 66 collection. This was my area of major interest in the 90s. It's amazing how much prices have fallen. Lots of issues can be had in MS66 for under $200. Even scarcer issues that used to bring $800 in MS65 now go for $250. >>



I think he is saying there a terrible investment. If you like them get for pleasure only.

lostincoins

PCGS MS67+ and CAC green bean

bolivarshagnasty

<< <i>

<< <i>Valente151, very nice >>



Plus 1 >>



Plus 2

My only other commemorative purchase recently crossed from NGC to PCGS at grade. (66)

kiyote

claychaser, That Missouri is the BOMB. I'd need to rope off an afternoon at the safety deposit box if I owned that thing!