One thing I have learned about rare coins...

Boosibri

One the I have learned as I pursue increasing rare coins is that often times their availability comes in waves.

For example, about 3 years ago I saw a series of 3 or 4 very choice 47-O $5's, a coin with a total pop of probably 50-60. Now, nice coins are completely unavailable and I have seen only one decent example since.

Another example is the current availability of the 39 $2.5 where a few individuals are currently dispositioning an old time collection slowly into the market which included 5-6 EF-MS examples of this date. When those are gone watch the supply on this issue dry up.

The Bently coin was a public example of this where multiple 64-S $10's, 70-CC $10's and $20's hit the market and will be gone for a long time.

There are currently a few coins where their present availability is probably distorted by near term supply coming to market.

Anyone else appreciate this?

Stuart

Yes, I have similar experience and observations about rare coin availability coming in waves.

I tend to think that this is the result of specialist collectors selling off (or liquidating) at least parts of their collection.

The market value typically is more resilient if you slowly liquidate this type of specialist collection that may appeal to a limited number of specialist collectors one coin at a time, rather than placing them all on the market at the same time (i.e. flooding the market).

dagman100

I agree that rare coins seem to come in waves. While at times frustrating, it seems to add to the excitement. I often think if every coin / every grade was available for my choosing, I would buy them all up quickly (budget permitting) - but then what? I guess I like the "hunt".

jhdfla

Agree.

Another thing I have learned is not to be too terribly disappointed if you don't win a coin you really wanted. There's always something else coming along, in most cases sooner rather than later, maybe not the exact coin you lost out on, but something equally appealing to you.

TheRegulator

Yup. When it rains, it pours. Always keep some powder dry.

RYK

No question about it, but…

Coins that are rare are often more available than you think. Take the 47-O $5, for example. In the last ten years, I probably have had 20 or more opportunities to buy one (and have owned two in that period). 20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin!

If you take the long view, everything can be acquired (within reason).

Boosibri

<< <i>No question about it, but…

Coins that are rare are often more available than you think. Take the 47-O $5, for example. In the last ten years, I probably have had 20 or more opportunities to buy one (and have owned two in that period). 20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin!

If you take the long view, everything can be acquired (within reason). >>



But how many of those were to RYK quality standards?

bidask

<< <i>No question about it, but…

Coins that are rare are often more available than you think. Take the 47-O $5, for example. In the last ten years, I probably have had 20 or more opportunities to buy one (and have owned two in that period). 20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin!

If you take the long view, everything can be acquired (within reason). >>

20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin! That's kind of an oxymoron, yes.

jhdfla

<< <i>

<< <i>No question about it, but…

Coins that are rare are often more available than you think. Take the 47-O $5, for example. In the last ten years, I probably have had 20 or more opportunities to buy one (and have owned two in that period). 20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin!

If you take the long view, everything can be acquired (within reason). >>

20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin! That's kind of an oxymoron, yes. >>



The term 'rare coins' is something of a misnomer in most cases.

RYK

<< <i>

<< <i>No question about it, but…

Coins that are rare are often more available than you think. Take the 47-O $5, for example. In the last ten years, I probably have had 20 or more opportunities to buy one (and have owned two in that period). 20 chances to buy a legitimately rare coin!

If you take the long view, everything can be acquired (within reason). >>



But how many of those were to RYK quality standards? >>


In the last twelve years, I have had the opportunity to purchase 10 "RYK quality" 1870-CC $10's, roughly one per year. (I should have bought the first one in the fall of 2002 )

Tibor

While my collection is not filled with the rare treasures that RYK and Boosibri
collect I do collect on the Dark Side. While I agree with the "Wave" analogy
I sometime suffer long "droughts". I will pay "Moon" money for known rarities
and I am disappointed when I don't win my bids. For me the "Hunt" is not
enjoyable,it is rather annoying, for me the ownership of the coin is most important;
an opportunity to study the coin in hand. A collection with missing pieces is
just that.

Shamika

I've observed the same thing. There are a number of dates that I'll see a dozen or so within a 2 year span and then years go by without seeing ANY of them. Of course I then look back and regret not being more aggressive when I had the chance.

Walkerfan

Yes, this can happen. I am having trouble finding nice examples of even some easy dates right now.

ranshdow

There seem to be a bout of 1845-O $2 1/2's recently as well.

Boosibri

<< <i>There seem to be a bout of 1845-O $2 1/2's recently as well. >>



I'd like to find a nice 45-o $2.5

mercurydimeguy

I have a few coins in this category so I have also experienced this phenomenon.

ranshdow

I'd like to find a nice 45-o $2.5

None of them were nice.

EastonCollection

I completely agree with your comment that certain rare coins appear in waves. Several times, I acquired a rare bust dime or quarter and then a second one appeared. Yup, I got both when both appeared to be well priced.

khayse

I've noticed the same thing. It's hard when someone who has spent years building an collection decides to sell it all at once. So many nice pieces.

-KHayse

johnny9434

agreed and i hope it has the right coin im looking for

Nap

Makes buying rare coins tricky. You never know whether that rare coin for auction is the first of many to come across the block or the last for years. Do you bid strong... ?

Boosibri

<< <i>Makes buying rare coins tricky. You never know whether that rare coin for auction is the first of many to come across the block or the last for years. Do you bid strong... ? >>



Well I think there is always the risk of increasing supply but it is the exception rather than the rule. Bottom line, if the coins are nice then they will quickly be absorbed into the market.

Please keep in mind, my commentary is a reflection of my view on the rare gold market and probably isn't transferable to more available sectors.

291fifth

There are more hoards of key and semi-key dates out there than you might think. Hoarding over the past 35 years or so has made many coins seem to be of greater scarcity than is really the case.