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All time stock market highs= crazy prices for High End Sports Cards
lseecon
Posts: 318 ✭✭
As we are now in year 6 of this most likely 12 year plus (or approaching half way) non stop bull market in stocks, and as interest rates will stay low for our lifetimes, we will continue to see more and more money flow into the high end collectibles market. It has to. You can only add so many zeroes to people's stock portfolios and own so many homes before people look for tangible items to spend their monopoly money on. Some have commented on the super high prices for PSA 9s and 10s of high end cards in the Memory Lane auction and the $3.2 million paid for the superman comic book. It naturally flows that as the wealth creation in the world continues unabated, that sports cards prices will continue to rise. It will mostly be concentrated in the high end market as you are witnessing as that is where most of the wealth effect is taking place. Pre 1980 unopened product in its purest form will continue to get some of this action too I believe, especially very rare stuff like unopened cases. There is a whole class of new ten millionaires and hundred millionaires in their 30s to 60s who wont think twice about dropping 20k on a sports card. That's like a $20 bill to most of us. They aren't interested in an item that anybody can have, they want items that only the super rich can afford, like PSA 9 and 10s of elite cards or a 1971 topps wax box. However, I do believe at some point (usually the latter half of a bull market), a rising tide will lift all (well many other) boats and the low end and middle end of the sports card market may see a spike too. As the record prices in collectibles make headlines, it will pique the interest of many who think if a PSA 9 Hornung rookie is worth 40k, then an ungraded or PSA 7 or 8 should be worth more (not sure if I agree) and cause some buying interest.
Anyway that's my 2 cents.
Anyway that's my 2 cents.
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<< <i>As we are now in year 6 of this most likely 12 year plus (or approaching half way) non stop bull market in stocks, and as interest rates will stay low for our lifetimes, we will continue to see more and more money flow into the high end collectibles market. It has to. You can only add so many zeroes to people's stock portfolios and own so many homes before people look for tangible items to spend their monopoly money on. Some have commented on the super high prices for PSA 9s and 10s of high end cards in the Memory Lane auction and the $3.2 million paid for the superman comic book. It naturally flows that as the wealth creation in the world continues unabated, that sports cards prices will continue to rise. It will mostly be concentrated in the high end market as you are witnessing as that is where most of the wealth effect is taking place. Pre 1980 unopened product in its purest form will continue to get some of this action too I believe, especially very rare stuff like unopened cases. There is a whole class of new ten millionaires and hundred millionaires in their 30s to 60s who wont think twice about dropping 20k on a sports card. That's like a $20 bill to most of us. They aren't interested in an item that anybody can have, they want items that only the super rich can afford, like PSA 9 and 10s of elite cards or a 1971 topps wax box. However, I do believe at some point (usually the latter half of a bull market), a rising tide will lift all (well many other) boats and the low end and middle end of the sports card market may see a spike too. As the record prices in collectibles make headlines, it will pique the interest of many who think if a PSA 9 Hornung rookie is worth 40k, then an ungraded or PSA 7 or 8 should be worth more (not sure if I agree) and cause some buying interest.
Anyway that's my 2 cents. >>
I see a lot of keywords like: "high end" "monopoly" "wealth" "continue to rise" "millionaires" "spike" "concentrated" "bull" and "2 cents" which makes Dpeck100 the most qualified person on these boards to answer your post.
<< <i>As we are now in year 6 of this most likely 12 year plus (or approaching half way) non stop bull market in stocks, and as interest rates will stay low for our lifetimes, we will continue to see more and more money flow into the high end collectibles market. It has to. You can only add so many zeroes to people's stock portfolios and own so many homes before people look for tangible items to spend their monopoly money on. Some have commented on the super high prices for PSA 9s and 10s of high end cards in the Memory Lane auction and the $3.2 million paid for the superman comic book. It naturally flows that as the wealth creation in the world continues unabated, that sports cards prices will continue to rise. It will mostly be concentrated in the high end market as you are witnessing as that is where most of the wealth effect is taking place. Pre 1980 unopened product in its purest form will continue to get some of this action too I believe, especially very rare stuff like unopened cases. There is a whole class of new ten millionaires and hundred millionaires in their 30s to 60s who wont think twice about dropping 20k on a sports card. That's like a $20 bill to most of us. They aren't interested in an item that anybody can have, they want items that only the super rich can afford, like PSA 9 and 10s of elite cards or a 1971 topps wax box. However, I do believe at some point (usually the latter half of a bull market), a rising tide will lift all (well many other) boats and the low end and middle end of the sports card market may see a spike too. As the record prices in collectibles make headlines, it will pique the interest of many who think if a PSA 9 Hornung rookie is worth 40k, then an ungraded or PSA 7 or 8 should be worth more (not sure if I agree) and cause some buying interest.
Anyway that's my 2 cents. >>
I appreciate your opinion, but there's quite a few things in your post I disagree with or question. With regards to the market, what makes you think we're in a 12 year non-stop bull market? By "market" I assume you mean the S&P 500 index? Not all markets have been up the last 6 years. And sure, the last 6 years are up, but 2008 was a historically bad year and 2009 & 2010 could be attributed to a rebound. 2011 was a flat year...so hardly a non-stop bull market. Also, do you know if you invested $100 at the beginning of 2008 it would have only been worth $108 at the end of 2012 (it took 4 years of positive returns to recover the 2008 loss)?
Interest rates aren't going to stay this low for our lifetimes. And "low" is a relative term. A 6% interest rate on a 30 year mortgage might sound low to someone age 60, but that's very high for someone age 30 that has seen rates between 3.5% to 5% since they've been out of school.
New millionaires are made everyday. That's not something new to this generation. New millionaires were being made in the late 90s when the card hobby fell apart. And I disagree that they won't think twice about spending $20k on a card. These people don't become millionaires by throwing money around at losing propositions. Just because they have a lot of money, it doesn't necessarily mean that $20k means less to them than someone else. And I don't believe people with deep pockets aren't making these high end purchases without a lot of thought of the prospects of a return on their investment.
Overall, I agree with your general opinion that the card collecting market is healthy and on the rise. Very rare items will continue to appreciate because they are simply very rare. As more collectors seek high-end items they will pay a premium. This is nothing new for the rare items. Remember how crazy Gretzky was when he bought the T206 Wagner for $xxxx...and then sold it for a huge profit. And so did the people that had the card after that guy and so on. However, I don't think we're going to see low/mid end cards like a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie rise in value much because there are so many available.
I think the trickle down affect is also at play. Most people that are involved in this hobby obviously have extra income to buy cards,unopened ect of their favorite sport and players. When we see our 401k's.Ira's,savings going up in a bull market we "feel" the wealth whether it is real or perceived. I know if I'm having a good month I'll spend a little extra on my hobby.To the chagrin of my wife of course.
<< <i>
<< <i>As we are now in year 6 of this most likely 12 year plus (or approaching half way) non stop bull market in stocks, and as interest rates will stay low for our lifetimes, we will continue to see more and more money flow into the high end collectibles market. It has to. You can only add so many zeroes to people's stock portfolios and own so many homes before people look for tangible items to spend their monopoly money on. Some have commented on the super high prices for PSA 9s and 10s of high end cards in the Memory Lane auction and the $3.2 million paid for the superman comic book. It naturally flows that as the wealth creation in the world continues unabated, that sports cards prices will continue to rise. It will mostly be concentrated in the high end market as you are witnessing as that is where most of the wealth effect is taking place. Pre 1980 unopened product in its purest form will continue to get some of this action too I believe, especially very rare stuff like unopened cases. There is a whole class of new ten millionaires and hundred millionaires in their 30s to 60s who wont think twice about dropping 20k on a sports card. That's like a $20 bill to most of us. They aren't interested in an item that anybody can have, they want items that only the super rich can afford, like PSA 9 and 10s of elite cards or a 1971 topps wax box. However, I do believe at some point (usually the latter half of a bull market), a rising tide will lift all (well many other) boats and the low end and middle end of the sports card market may see a spike too. As the record prices in collectibles make headlines, it will pique the interest of many who think if a PSA 9 Hornung rookie is worth 40k, then an ungraded or PSA 7 or 8 should be worth more (not sure if I agree) and cause some buying interest.
Anyway that's my 2 cents. >>
I appreciate your opinion, but there's quite a few things in your post I disagree with or question. With regards to the market, what makes you think we're in a 12 year non-stop bull market? By "market" I assume you mean the S&P 500 index? Not all markets have been up the last 6 years. And sure, the last 6 years are up, but 2008 was a historically bad year and 2009 & 2010 could be attributed to a rebound. 2011 was a flat year...so hardly a non-stop bull market. Also, do you know if you invested $100 at the beginning of 2008 it would have only been worth $108 at the end of 2012 (it took 4 years of positive returns to recover the 2008 loss)?
Interest rates aren't going to stay this low for our lifetimes. And "low" is a relative term. A 6% interest rate on a 30 year mortgage might sound low to someone age 60, but that's very high for someone age 30 that has seen rates between 3.5% to 5% since they've been out of school.
New millionaires are made everyday. That's not something new to this generation. New millionaires were being made in the late 90s when the card hobby fell apart. And I disagree that they won't think twice about spending $20k on a card. These people don't become millionaires by throwing money around at losing propositions. Just because they have a lot of money, it doesn't necessarily mean that $20k means less to them than someone else. And I don't believe people with deep pockets aren't making these high end purchases without a lot of thought of the prospects of a return on their investment.
Overall, I agree with your general opinion that the card collecting market is healthy and on the rise. Very rare items will continue to appreciate because they are simply very rare. As more collectors seek high-end items they will pay a premium. This is nothing new for the rare items. Remember how crazy Gretzky was when he bought the T206 Wagner for $xxxx...and then sold it for a huge profit. And so did the people that had the card after that guy and so on. However, I don't think we're going to see low/mid end cards like a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie rise in value much because there are so many available. >>
Agree. $20,000 is $20,000 not "like" $20.00.
<< <i>Good write up
I think the trickle down affect is also at play. Most people that are involved in this hobby obviously have extra income to buy cards,unopened ect of their favorite sport and players. When we see our 401k's.Ira's,savings going up in a bull market we "feel" the wealth whether it is real or perceived. I know if I'm having a good month I'll spend a little extra on my hobby.To the chagrin of my wife of course. >>
Same
<< <i>They aren't interested in an item that anybody can have, they want items that only the super rich can afford, like PSA 9 and 10s of elite cards or a 1971 topps wax box. However, I do believe at some point (usually the latter half of a bull market), a rising tide will lift all (well many other) boats and the low end and middle end of the sports card market may see a spike too. As the record prices in collectibles make headlines, it will pique the interest of many who think if a PSA 9 Hornung rookie is worth 40k, then an ungraded or PSA 7 or 8 should be worth more (not sure if I agree) and cause some buying interest.
Anyway that's my 2 cents. >>
I would respectfully add that PSA 9s and 10s aren't the only cards that are elite. "High-end" to a wealthy raw collector or centering collector does not necessarily mean a high number on the sticker. For example, even a "lowly" PSA 3 M101 Ruth will set someone back a pretty penny-- exponentially moreso if the card is centered or lacks the dreaded horizontal print line. A PSA 1.5 e90-1 Joe Jackson hit 22k in Heritage, and the list can go on.
I know guys with major money to burn who want "items that not anybody can have," yet they define that as centered versions of certain cards they are after; for example, try finding a dead-centered Paige SP, M101 Ruth, or #311. A friend of mine recently passed on the Memory Lane Paige SP in PSA 7 based on one quick look, because the card wasn't centered. There are no 9s of that card and a few 8s (which go for 85-100k privately). So by sticker grade the 7 was an extremely elite card, a real condition rarity-- and yet to this one wealthy collector it was worthless as he wouldn't even want it at any price. Meanwhile, if a centered PSA 5 showed up he would probably pay more for that 5 than the 7 wound up hammering for. So grade is only part of the equation; or perhaps I should say it is a variable that weighs differently in each individual collector's own equation.
In this way graded cards are not exactly like stocks, even though many try to equate them. A share of a company's stock is identical to all other shares of that same stock, but not all cards or any collectible in the same grade are equal. Many collectible buyers evaluate each graded card or collectible differently based on their own aesthetic tastes. Point is "high-end" sports cards are not all defined by sticker grade. Especially so in the Pre-War space. TPGs do a great job of authenticating and stratifying cards as best they can, but their opinion is not law by which all collectors abide, and exceptions abound.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Interest rates aren't going to stay this low for our lifetimes. And "low" is a relative term. A 6% interest rate on a 30 year mortgage might sound low to someone age 60, but that's very high for someone age 30 that has seen rates between 3.5% to 5% since they've been out of school.
New millionaires are made everyday. That's not something new to this generation. New millionaires were being made in the late 90s when the card hobby fell apart. And I disagree that they won't think twice about spending $20k on a card. These people don't become millionaires by throwing money around at losing propositions. Just because they have a lot of money, it doesn't necessarily mean that $20k means less to them than someone else. And I don't believe people with deep pockets aren't making these high end purchases without a lot of thought of the prospects of a return on their investment.
Overall, I agree with your general opinion that the card collecting market is healthy and on the rise. Very rare items will continue to appreciate because they are simply very rare. As more collectors seek high-end items they will pay a premium. This is nothing new for the rare items. Remember how crazy Gretzky was when he bought the T206 Wagner for $xxxx...and then sold it for a huge profit. And so did the people that had the card after that guy and so on. However, I don't think we're going to see low/mid end cards like a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie rise in value much because there are so many available.>>
Yes, by bull market, I am referring to the S&P 500 and the market in general. My estimate of a "12 year" bull market is just that, my humble estimate, just based on where we are in relation to the rebound, prior bull markets etc. Secular bull markets seem to last about 8-12 years and this one seems particularly strong and fueled by alot of fed easing and money printing so I think it will be on the longer end and maybe even longer than 12 years. Seems like after the 1987 crash, the market pretty much went up nonstop until 1999-2000, that was about 12 years (lots of wealth created, then some destroyed), then after the nasdaq crash, we went on another bull market for about 8 years, then the 2008 crash, and now we are 6 years into this one. I just dont see any thing to stop the flow of money into stocks. The money is sure out there to fuel it, our income tax laws favor stock investment over W-2 earnings, lots of bull market skeptics, and interest rates are low so no incentive to save in traditional vehicles like CDs, money markets, cash, etc.
We do disagree on interest rates it appears, I really dont see interest rates rising for the next 20 years.
I also stand by my assertion that dropping 20k a sports card for a person worth 50 million plus, is similar to most of us dropping $20 a card. Its all relative. Sure they might think twice, but at the end of the day its a meaningless impact to their overall networth, etc, disposable income, etc. If they want it, they will buy it.
As far as your comment about there are always new millionaires being created, yes, but I think the number of new millionaires being created in this bull market far exceeds the numbers in past. I dont think we had anywere near the number of young tech millionaires being created in the past. Silicon Valley was nothing like it is now compared to the 90s. And in the 90s, you didnt have China, India, Russia and the rest of the world creating millionaires and billioinaires every day like they do now. While those foreign billionaires arent buying sports cards, they are buying and investing in other things (real estate, entire companies, hedge funds, private equity, stocks, artwork, etc) that are causing many Americans to benefit much mroe than in the 90s when the only foreign investors really were the Japanese.
For DM23HOF, yes I agree to real card collector, the PSA 3 of a Ruth rookie may be held in the same esteem and desire as a PSA 8 Mantle Rookie and lower condition cards of true rarities will be coveted by those true card collectors, but a portion of the high end money that moves into any collectibles market, such as sports cards, is not coming from "true collectors" but really just guys who have way too much money and want to buy the best of the best just to have it. Nothing wrong with that, but those guys are many of the ones buying the PSA 9s and 10s of Mantle rookies, Cobbs, etc. When Gretzky bought the PSA 8 Wagner, was he a long term collector, looking to put the finishing touches on a t206 set he had built over the years? I doubt it. I think he just wanted the "most iconic card" in the best condition. I doubt he was also buying lower condition caramel cards of commons because he was a true collector. He may have been an astute "investor" who realized the card would appreciate and he could flip it. That may be the case with the guys buying some of the PSA 10s of the rookie cards. They may just see opportunities to flip it to the next billionaire.
as for the stock market, the 08 crisis, etc...luckily neither of them effected me. while I do dabble in that arena (401k, IRA, 529 plan) I have stayed away from it. I like to control my own destiny, not have some ceo of Enron, WorldCom, etc inflate balance sheets and then utterly bail while he collects his golden parachute and leaves me hanging out to dry. once I paid off my house, rental units, cars, toys, etc I buried some disposable income into some high quality cards...both as a hobby and as investment. I like to think I've done pretty good considering. keeping in tune w/ the 08 crisis...this is when I actually got back into collecting. for me, it was the perfect time as I was completely liquid and people started selling off high dollar items for cheap and in a lot of cases, for loses.
as for the $20K vs $20 debate. no, I'm not worth $50 million but I have spent over $20K on a card or so. I have also spent $20 on several cards. rest assured I look over that $20 card just as much as that $20K card and am completely in line w/ the centering issues. there could be a 9 that I need to complete one of my sets however, if it's oc I pass immediately. in the end, to me five bucks is five bucks...and if I'm gonna spend that five bucks, I better get a centered card!
And as a collector of high grade vintage, I absolutely love to see the cost of vintage unopened go higher and higher. It makes the value proposition of ripping that much worse, thus creating a stronger incentive not to open and go for the mints and gem mints.
If I had to bet I believe it is the low interest rates that are helping fuel both. When you lower the opportunity cost to zero money searches for a home. If interest rates were higher there would be a much greater hurdle to overcome the risk free rate and many investments might not be made. In 2007 you could have sat in my cash money market fund and earned 4.75% doing nothing. That is pretty good.
I am in the camp like the OP that interest rates are going to stay low for much longer then most think. Forget politics and just focus on the math. How on earth can we afford higher rates? The amount of debt we have loaded onto government balance sheets globally is simply incredible. I did the calculation last week and we are taking in 17.6% in taxes off our current GDP. If interest rates rise 1% across the Treasury borrowing curve we will need GDP growth of greater then 5% to offset the increase in interest expense without seeing the budget deficit rise. If you have that kind of growth you would think rates would naturally be higher and if they move in the 3% range we can never catch up. I believe the central banks realize we are in a box and personally I have no clue how you solve this math equation.
In my view one of the primary drivers of the speculation in the card markets is the backdrop that many see. The vast majority of the collectors on this board have seen the value of their collections rise in the prior five years. You would have to try pretty hard to have taken a beating in cards in recent years and when people see that kind of a track record it gives them additional confidence to put their funds to work.
What in my view is driving most of the cards that people on these boards collect is consumer confidence. Sure the market plays a role in this but a larger piece is the job market and we have seen sustained job growth and the number of workers being laid off has continued to slow. Most are more concerned with what their future cash flow projections look like and less on transitory paper wealth. I am having my best year ever in the market betting on bonds and my net worth is as high as it has ever been and this has had no impact on my card purchases. I am in no way in the class of people that the OP referenced who can spend $20,000 on a card and not blink. Quite frankly I have barely spent more then $2,000 on a single card.
The true iconic collections may be driven by the market gains as many of the ultra wealthy do have large ownership ties to corporations and I don't think arguing against that is even logical. If wealth at the top end is growing like it has it only makes since that they want to enjoy it and the bragging rights associated with ultra high end collectibles are quite large. I started a thread about conspicuous consumption many months ago and I firmly believe that this concept applies to the elite cards. Many though who find themselves in this wealth segment are insulated from economic downturns. Let's face it if you are worth 100 million you can buy tax free bonds and easily earn 4 million a year for the rest of your life with limited risk. Who cares if the market tanks you are sitting pretty.
Personally I think it is really speculative to forecast the coming five to ten years. The range of outcomes is so large. There are certain collectibles that never fade but those are few and far between. Sure a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in a PSA 10 is never going to go out of style or cease to be sought after but that doesn't mean a card that sold for $700 a few years ago and has moved to $5,000 can't retreat. It all depends on what happens to incomes in my view because at the core there are tons of collections housing items that if a dramatic shift were to take place would be forced to sell and this scenario stops the bull run in its tracks.
I have no clue where the stock market will be a year from now and even less of a clue five years from now and I am collecting for me. I would be lying if I said I wouldn't like to see my cards increase in value but as my track record shows I am not interested in hitting the bid no matter what the price is on most of my cards.
<< <i>Money itself isn't lost or made >>
The Fed is MAKING money faster then it can be printed!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>out of context, mr snuffy... >>
Thats never stopped me before!
<< <i>Didn't Henry (Mintmoondog) predict we'd be living in caves or off the land by 2016, LOL...all these cards will be used for kindling then!! >>
Hmmmmm... That makes me think about what will happen to the collections of those who get caught up in the rapture? All the heathens will end up all the cards!!!!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>Didn't Henry (Mintmoondog) predict we'd be living in caves or off the land by 2016, LOL...all these cards will be used for kindling then!! >>
Hmmmmm... That makes me think about what will happen to the collections of those who get caught up in the rapture? All the heathens will end up all the cards!!!!!! >>
70s cello packs make nice handheld weapons with those sharp corners!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
A lot of my co-workers said their pensions were going to be huge because the stock market had performed so well for so long. Those pensions are not looking so good now.
I do agree that high grade VINTAGE sports cards are a good (and fun) investment, unopened material looks to be even better. Better hope nothing shakes collector confidence in the TPG services.
<< <i>"Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another. This painting here. I bought it 10 years ago for 60 thousand dollars. I could sell it today for 600 [thousand]. The illusion has become real and the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it." >>
Great quote from one of my favorite movies. Watched it a crazy number of times as a teenager. I think I had the Teldar Paper speech memorized.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Regarding card collecting.. I think this market will crash simply because I don't think there will be as many collectors over time. Most of the people with the most purchasing power today grew up during the card boom.. So there is an influx of people with disposable income in the hobby. I don't think kids collect cards today so there aren't future generations that will be lining up to buy our cards once we are on fixed incomes.
<< <i>I might just be pessimistic but I think both are due for a correction. The overall economy is dangerous house of cards. The government needs to stop spending rather look for ways to increase taxes to balance the budget. With the amount of people getting government subsidies and the addition of all of the illegals also receiving the benefits of our tax dollars.. It's only a matter of time before the system collapses.
Regarding card collecting.. I think this market will crash simply because I don't think there will be as many collectors over time. Most of the people with the most purchasing power today grew up during the card boom.. So there is an influx of people with disposable income in the hobby. I don't think kids collect cards today so there aren't future generations that will be lining up to buy our cards once we are on fixed incomes. >>
I don't think we have to worry about the demographics of the vintage and semi-vintage card collectors just yet. If anything we should see a near-term influx of collectors as the kids from the junk wax era head into their mid-to-late 30s. I would guess that there are fewer collectors now who were kids in the 80s/early90s than in each of the three previous decades in terms of number and certainly in terms of purchasing power.
If there is a hobby crash in the near future it will be due to macro economic issues.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I agree wholeheartedly that illegals should get nothing from my tax dollars, other than the cost of a trip out of the country. Subsidies given to people who have paid taxes for years are justified, as long as they are temporary, and there to help them become self sufficient once more. That is only fair.
In looking at spending, it would seem the EASIEST/BEST way to balance the budget or at least improve the numbers, would be to reduce spending on defense. I believe it is the #1 area we spend on. Keeping the money in the U.S. would help as well. Have you seen the way Medtronic is going about avoiding paying taxes?
"Medtronic is the latest U.S. company to do a "tax inversion"—move its base overseas for tax purposes, so that overseas revenues will be taxed at a lower rate. This kind of move particularly suits pharmaceutical companies because they tend to be cash-rich and generate a significant amount of their revenues overseas. As well as saving on Medtronic's tax bill, the acquisition is expected to deliver around $850 million of annual pretax savings by the end of 2018."
The super rich should not be allowed to receive benefits by moving part of their operations out of the country.
You and I will be making up the difference. Our government will not be cutting spending as these big corporations cut their taxes, in my opinion.
Getting back to a more enjoyable subject; I think it will be a very long time before people "forget" who Mantle, Mays, Aaron etc. were. The most popular players will be popular for a long time and in general should be a safe investment. Might not go up in value much, but should at least hold their value.
Joe
<< <i>It would be on the order of a 30+ year projection, the hobby crashing due to a lack of interested collectors. And if even the most cautious prognosticators say modeling anything beyond 3-5 years is risky, a 30-year prediction seems far too distant to be lent credence. There are collectors now in their 20s, 30s, and 40s all combining with even older collectors to drive demand and support prices. So let's say the guys in their 30s and 40s who are active now will be active for another 30 years, until they are in their 60s-70s. I for one am not losing sleep over what may or may not happen in 30 years. And besides, if that crash does happen, I will be that jacked 68 year old who looks more like a 50 year old at the nearly empty shows or on ebay buying up every centered HOFer card I can find with my Writers' Guild pension and Social Security
The way I see it, my widow will be the one liquidating my collection as I can't part with anything, so it will be her problem. When she asked what makes me think she will outlive me, the answer is simple: she will smother me in my sleep over this hobby! Just turned 60, still love collecting but these crazy prices are making me think about selling. There WILL be a market correction, just a matter of when. But worse than a correction would be failure of one of the "too big to fail" institutions. Then we are talking depression. In that case, what would happen to the value of our cards?
USDebtClock
One of the top bond market strategists Jeffrey Gundlach JG was quick to point out several years ago that collectibles would out perform and he was spot on. The only person I have ever scene in the financial press to make this statement. Read his bio about the art that was stolen from him and how he found it.
<< <i>Better hope nothing shakes collector confidence in the TPG services. >>
you mean something along the lines of a highly coveted and marketed "oversized" t206 which was conveniently hand-cut and then rec'vd a grade of a 5 vs. being labeled "a" thus resulting in an fbi investigation? ...or the "chatter" of some type of monetary connection between some random third party grader and a company boasting it's 3 crisp corners? or, are we talking about the lack of a secure holder which might be easily accessible, thus allowing for the easy removal of a highly valued card only to insert one of lesser caliber? or, are we talking about the lack of a uniformed flip, which allows for someone in china(or wherever) to start making their own fake flips and inserting into the aforementioned holder which was previously mentioned? or, are we just talking about the fact of another certain t206 error card with an inked over name that somehow found it's way into said holder, posted on ebay w/ a consignor outta nj and was called back by said tpg once one scrupulous collector called it out? or are you just calling out the fact that my pack submission is going on well over 3 months which is well past it's advertised service date?
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
It's true that some collect to recapture childhood, but even more collect either for investment reasons or because they are simply sports fans. I've known many collectors that collect as adults yet didn't as kids.
As long as there are sports (and sports fans), and as long as vintage cards offer some level of scarcity and challenge to collect, I think there will always be buyers.
<< <i>I believe it is an incorrect assumption that interest in vintage cards will wane, when those entering their prime earning years will lack interest simply because they didn't collect as kids (maybe starting 10-15 years from now?).
It's true that some collect to recapture childhood, but even more collect either for investment reasons or because they are simply sports fans. I've known many collectors that collect as adults yet didn't as kids.
As long as there are sports (and sports fans), and as long as vintage cards offer some level of scarcity and challenge to collect, I think there will always be buyers. >>
I agree with you on that. Even though I collected in the 1980's, I took 12 years off before joining this board in 2001. In 2005 I became serious about collecting vintage football RCs and started to buy like crazy. I had never bought a football card before then.