Kris Bryant/Jose Abreu cards which is the better investment?

Topgun6580

So I was doing my usual browsing the bay today and noticed how HOT Jose Abreu RC autos/refractors etc are at the moment, and rightfully so. But what I found interesting is that Kris Bryant's RC cards are even hotter, yet the guy hasn't even swung a bat in the majors.

My question's are, is this kid supposed to be the next Babe Ruth or something? How are his cards more popular than a guy who's current stats are .305 64Rs 31HRs 89RBIs in his first 109 major league games? And for modern collectors is Kris Bryant really a better investment than Abreu? Is it the age?

mtcards

At the prices I see the better ones selling for, I would say NEITHER for an investment.

baz518

It has to be age (and speculation)... Bryant has just as good (if not better) numbers, but they're all minor league numbers. He's on a fast track to the majors, but it will be next year before Theo and the boys will bring him up to the Cubs.

Guru

I wouldn't invest too heavily in either one. Seems like every year there's 2-3 guys out there that are hot and then their cards dive. I would be cautious investing in anything new. Want a safe bet...vintage....always vintage.

JHS5120

No, no, no, no, no. You'll be lucky to get $.50 on your dollar for either one of them.

Kris Bryant - Possibly the worst time to buy for two reasons:
1. He recently passed Byron Buxton as the #1 prospect in baseball
2. The Futures game in July brought a quick up-surge in his popularity

Those two things have increased his popularity about 600-700% on Google Trends (the amount of times people Googled his name). The more popular a star prospect, the hotter his cards get. You need to wait until the off season - December/January should be a good time to buy. People will be thinking about football and hockey - baseball prospects are the last thought of collectors. It will also work well with the inevitable February/March speculation of whether he'll be on the starting roster (he won't be, but that won't affect the card price).

Jose Abreu - If there was one player WORSE to buy in now for, it's Abreu.
1. Some people think he will set the rookie HR record and think it'll increase his value. It won't! If Stephen Strausburg pitched a perfect game in his first outing, his cards wouldn't have gone up. The speculation is what drive the card prices, not the performance.
2. Even if he breaks every record in the book his card prices will still plummet in the off season.
3. He's a 27 year old rookie, even if he puts up great numbers for the next few years, his career will not be that spectacular.
4. Right now he's slumping. If he ends the season in a slump his card will tank until he does something great in the next season. If he finishes strong, his card will still tank in the off season.

Long story short; wait for the off season.

mattyc_collection

I hear this Mantle guy is a good bet.

Guru

<< <i>I hear this Mantle guy is a good bet. >>



+1

The time to buy new baseball is always the off season.

slum22

All of the above is correct. I usually try to answer the original question (and if pressed I would say Abreu if only because he's at least done something in the Majors). That said, I agree with everyone above, an investment in any currently hot rookie or minor leaguer is almost always a losing one. STAY AWAY! Their current price levels have already priced into them unworldly expectations. You are more likely to lose money than make money on these guys at this point.

yankeesman

Two words.... Matt LaPorta

JustinsShoebox

I agree with the rest.

I did however buy a box of Bowman Platinum this weekend. I went to Frank and Sons to meet a dealer, who didn't show by the time I needed to leave. I didn't want to go home empty handed so I bought a box of this for 80.00.

I had a nice Bryant box. The Atomic Refractor is 4/5 and the auto is cool. Definitely was stoked when I opened this one!



Justin

ThoseBackPages

i know its all avout "collect how/what you want", but damn, with each passing day its just easier to "Collect Dead guys, because they rarely disappoint"

JHS5120

Oh, and to answer the original question; I would take Bryant, but only because Abreu is a 27 year old rookie.

With that said, neither is a good investment.

jfkheat

I've have said it before, there are no cards of current players that I would be willing to "invest" in as a long term investment. You might get lucky if you buy cards of players that you think might be good if you buy the cards before they start having good numbers in the majors. Even then, I would sell when the player gets "hot".
James

belz

Anything modern other than hof autos are a disaster. With that being said, I've made money hitting guys before they take off...just really risky. Anyone that's already made it, you need to sell and sell fast. Most won't stand as far as card value.

BobH

<< <i>Two words.... Matt LaPorta >>



How about The Marlins phenom Mike Stanton...........

alnavman

two more words Kevin Maas

yankeeno7

Investment is always dangerous when you are talking prospects. Most already know that.

If you want to try to "invest" in someone, "invest" in a guy that you research and feel he has a good chance of becoming an impact player...one that no one is paying attention to. Someone off the radar. "Invest" in that guy or a couple others. If they get really hot for whatever reason, your return could be huge. If you lose, you havent lost much.

mattyc_collection

When I was a kid I used to do just what the post above suggests. I'd scour rookies' stats and research their scouting reports and then bet-- I was focusing on the non-hyped prospects, aware of how for every Strawberry who was a #1 pick, there was a Mattingly taken in the 19th round.

I came across Matt Williams and bought hundreds of his 88F and other cards that I would later sell for a few bucks each.

I also noticed that Greg Briley had eerily similar stats to Ken Griffey, Jr. That bet did not pan out.

Still, it was fun looking for the guys and cards that were not hyped. I can see while typing this now that the same philosophy I embraced then has informed my collecting as an adult, albeit now with issues like condition and sticker grade.

Tabe

Kris Bryant has some red flags that make me question his future stardom. He's obviously having a killer year (40 HRs between AA/AAA, while hitting .333) but he strikes out a TON. 143 Ks in 532 PAs - 27% of his PAs. That's a big concern.

jfkheat

<< <i>When I was a kid I used to do just what the post above suggests. I'd scour rookies' stats and research their scouting reports and then bet-- I was focusing on the non-hyped prospects, aware of how for every Strawberry who was a #1 pick, there was a Mattingly taken in the 19th round.

I came across Matt Williams and bought hundreds of his 88F and other cards that I would later sell for a few bucks each.

I also noticed that Greg Briley had eerily similar stats to Ken Griffey, Jr. That bet did not pan out.

Still, it was fun looking for the guys and cards that were not hyped. I can see while typing this now that the same philosophy I embraced then has informed my collecting as an adult, albeit now with issues like condition and sticker grade. >>



I did the same thing. I think I still have a bunch of 1987 Kevin Elster and 1988 Walt Weiss cards.
James

Topgun6580

Right I agree with the vintage posts. I do like vintage do not get me wrong. I would not buy any Bryant cards I was just surprised to see what people were spending on pure speculation. But last year I could have bought a Trout orange chrome refractor auto for $4k and now Ive seen them sell for over $12k for example. Even Kershaw cards still continue to raise in auctions over the years. Obviously these 2 are different. But I guess the story goes these modern autos are better on the quick resale value.

For argument sake, if you had an opportunity to buy a let says Pete Rose 63 topps PSA 5 RC for $500 or a Trout 2011 bowman chrome gold refractor RC that continues to gain steam for $500 you'd still go for the Rose?

GR

Tim berry, who is he? Exactly!!! Invest, he's got Jim Palmer's thumbs up last oriole broadcast

KendallCat

Bottom line is collect for fun and you won't be disappointed. What I mean by that is collect the cards you enjoy that even if they were worth zip tomorrow you would still like them. Couple of things I like to do is like every collector I started collecting at age 7-8 which usually coincides with starting little league, and I had some cards from 1973 and 1974 I started getting a bunch of 1975's with 76-77 being the big years for collecting. While I like to collect Mantle and Williams and a few others due to the ability to grow in value and I like the players I really enjoy finding a nice 1976 Bench in PSA 9 or a 1975 Aaron in PSA 9.... No matter what it is always great to collect cards you had as a kid or cards you could not afford.

Between Abreu and Bryant I would take Bryant if I had to choose. Younger player with great power at all levels - college minors, AAA... For $600 I would prefer a 1968 Mantle in PSA 8, but if the Bryant jumps to $1000 I can sell it and buy a better card. I use modern stuff since the little guy likes to crack it open, and if we get a big card we use it to grab a vintage card.

Baseballfans

Neither good investment. Great time to sell if U buy boxes to rip & find their cards. Even young man like me will stay away from these prices. Too many players never live up to their potential. By the time they do they either too old to accumulate stat to be HOFer. Or worst caught using PED. I don't think card in general is good for investment. Just buy what U like at the price U comfortable & enjoy the players U follow. Is only a hobby not stock market that will make U million dollars overnight.

esquiresports

<< <i> I also noticed that Greg Briley had eerily similar stats to Ken Griffey, Jr. That bet did not pan out. >>



Funny. This is how I picked Ron Jones. He had similar numbers to Ricky Jordan, but was $0.10-$0.15 compared to $1.00-1.50. Didn't pan out. Well, it didn't pan out for either of them.

Did well with Frank Thomas. He was actually under the radar in 1990.

For every success there will typically be 20 or more failures.

KendallCat

<< <i>

<< <i> I also noticed that Greg Briley had eerily similar stats to Ken Griffey, Jr. That bet did not pan out. >>



Funny. This is how I picked Ron Jones. He had similar numbers to Ricky Jordan, but was $0.10-$0.15 compared to $1.00-1.50. Didn't pan out. Well, it didn't pan out for either of them.

Did well with Frank Thomas. He was actually under the radar in 1990.

For every success there will typically be 20 or more failures. >>



I made a fortune off of Frank Thomas 90 Leaf back in the day both directly and indirectly, and it is neat to hear about others talk their experiences with the product. I knew about him since I played against him and he was an incredible talent early on, and when 1990 Leaf came out I grabbed a bunch of his cards(about a dozen) plus several unopened boxes. When I used to set up at shows I would arrange about 8-10 Thomas cards in the center of my case, and put all of the stuff around it that I wanted to sell - I used the Thomas cards to draw people to my booth and never sold them. What it did was move my other inventory that I wanted to sell so I could buy more cards. Amazing how those boxes went for $300/box and now they are $60-90 a box.