Group Rip

runningman

Sorry guys I didn't want to hijack the group rip thread with my thoughts. First of all, this is my first group rip and I'm excited about participating. I understand these rips have been very very popular and this one seems to be staling at these prices. I wonder if that says something about the market, maybe its inflated or at least topped out. I bought 1979 Topps Wax Packs a while back, maybe a year ago at $12.00 each, now there over $50.00, thoughts, opinions ?

dtkk49a

Are you a collector or investor?

gemint

I think you're right. Especially the 70s stuff. It really stalled out at the current prices. The '75 mini boxes sold fast but the single box they're breaking by pack has not filled in after getting less than half reserved. The '75 football wax box also collapsed when the price was corrected from $55 to $83 per pack. That's to be expected. Why not keep raising the prices until you find the equilibrium point?

gemint

<< <i>Are you a collector or investor? >>



I'm not following. Regardless of his intentions, it doesn't really change his point.

BostonAmericans

Speaking for myself, I am getting priced out. If not for the few 19th wax I want for my small collection, I may have passed. There definitely seems to be a gold rush mentality brewing.

lahmejoon

In the past, when prices were stable, the speed in which the slots were being filled was pretty similar to the one we're participating in now, so I think we've approached the new equilibrium in the market, at least with respect to the 70's product.

grote15

It's been well over a year since 79 wax was $12.00 a pack--probably around 2011.

ChiefsFan1st

Just speaking for myself, but here are my 2 hang-ups.

1. I was working when this thing fired off and by the time I got home (I work 2nd shift), the top priority stuff
for me was gone.

2. I blowed most of my load in Cleveland, so Im working with the scraps I brought home (Im classified
"other than a 1%er "

In a nutshell, timing sucked all the way around. But if I did have the cash, the stuff I collect is still in a
range I think is fair.

initialD

Not saying that the Group Rip prices are out of line at all, but personally they don't make sense for me to pay what they are going for

I do feel this time around that the prices are beyond the point where I feel comfortable in splurging in on everything

Then again, nothing too exotic and nothing really on my radar. No big deal. I did get a couple boxes thats it

But that's me. To others it may be what they want and worth the price, which is all good

Shoot, I can buy 86 Football all day @$12 pack at my local card shop.

Others may not even have a shop or show remotely close to them, so to them these prices are what they are

At least with BBCE one knows it's legit, probably the highest factor in this discussion

And once the gates open, I am sure stuff will get gobbled up

WalterSobchak

I am a '78 Topps collector and used to really enjoy buying packs every now & then. I am far, far beyond priced out. The price of '78 unopened has roughly quadrupled in the last five years.

At the current price, I have no interest whatsoever.

lahmejoon

<< <i>Shoot, I can buy 86 Football all day @$12 pack at my local card shop. >>



WHERE DO YOU LIVE!? LOL - I wish we had shops in this area with a decent selection of stuff.

ClockworkAngel

ClockworkAngel

Keep in mind that many of the buyers that typically participate in the group rip just got back from the National. A lot of collectors may have spent their "play money" at the show and are tapped out

MiniDuff

Speaking for myself, I have always treated these as "group rips" and not "group breaks". I like to rip and have been very active in the breaks historically.

I think a few things are in play here:

Price - There is virtually nothing worth ripping. I am in for a couple of 81 bb packs as I wanted the box actually.
Timing - Following the national
Timing Part 2 - The mini case break took $48k from the pockets of the very folks that participate in these rips, that has to be a factor.

I think the comment about pricing creating a stall, or catching up point makes a lot of sense. Clearly, the bears can jump in here and point out that there is in fact a point beyond which lemmings will buy anything and everything. We may be there.

bigdcards

Am I the only one that thinks this is specific to wax? I don't think the cellos, racks or boxes struggled at all. Much of the wax is too high for my interest and I think that's the situation for many. But it's also important to note that we are a pack buying group. I think if Steve puts the 77 box up, there are guys ready to buy it. I expect leveling, but I have thought that for a while and I'm not sure this rip is as telling as some of you.

lseecon

In addition to the 48k dropped on the 75 mini wax case, there was another $30k dropped on the 1979 wax tray case. Thats alot of spending power depleted prior to this group rip.

Also, I will say this, with the prices of the 70s baseball wax, specifically 77 wax, 78 wax, 79 wax at what they are selling for now from BBCE, once you pay $90 for a 1977 Topps wax pack and its not wrapped or sealed, it loses a good chunk of its "value" once its no longer in the hands of BBCE because there is no longer any way for you to guarantee to someone else that it is an unsearched pack from a box from BBCE. Now clearly if you are going to open the pack, then you couldnt care lesss and you are willing to pay a premium on that pack given that is coming from a full box and from BBCE and their reputation. And if you have no intention of ever reselling the pack, then you probably dont care either. I really dont have any immediate intention on trying to "flip" or sell wax packs, I am a collector but of course you never know what life throws at you and you may be forced to raise cash and sell cards or packs. Or if prices rise enough, you may change your mind and become a seller. IMHO Unwrapped wax packs even if originally from BBCE become just regular wax packs that likely carry no premium (or assurance to a buyer that they arent not searched or re-sealed, etc) and clearly not nearly as liquid as wrapped wax packs. Even though the prices of the individual wax packs are getting quite high, I would still be a buyer if they were individually wrapped by BBCE. Just as many are building a collection of BBCE wrapped boxes, I am sure many would like to build a collection of BBCE wrapped packs. Just my 2 cents though.

vintagefun

While Steve won't wrap Indy packs, I've seen multi-packs wrapped and available on BST and the Bay.

That may be next step. 2-6 pack authenticated lots.

runningman

Sorry I was away for a while painting my classroom !!! Definitely a ripper here, I was building a 1979 Topps set from packs at $12.00 each, even at that price I couldn't justify it except that it was fun, no way I can continue at these prices.

flatfoot816

at least for me--PSA now refusing to grade packs unless--well unless there are already damaged--is why I did not get any wax

I never ripped--I always got packs to get graded from these rips. No sense doing it now since chances are they would reject them after their change in policy

Dty

I concur with a lot of previous stated points. I believe a MAJOR reason for less interest in older wax is PSA not grading them. At the pack price nowadays, many folks were buying and holding. Sure a "rainy day rip" is happening occasionally, but most are/were being held for possible resale. If not able to have authenticated by PSA or BBCE, then less sales will occur.

I find it very interesting that the cellos were gobbled up right away. Why?
1. Chance to find stars on top-BBCE does not cherry pick and buyers have had some huge finds it their packages from BBCE in the past!
2. PSA will still grade cellos.
3. Resale (even of raw cellos) is easier than wax.

I still love ripping a pack and will do so with some packs from this rip. I guess wax will be my primary ripping candidate. Once received from BBCE, without authentication being possible, unless selling to folks that know you, wax packs are likely to be ripped. Hopefully, PSA will figure out a way to encapsulate wax packs, again, sometime soon.

I would also add that I agree a lot of potential money to join this rip, may have been exhausted in the recent case breaks and National spending.

BaltimoreYankee

I used to do the group rips for fun but can no longer justify the price. I'm pretty sure it was 2 years ago that we were ripping 79 Topps for 9 or 11 dollars a pack. I continue to be astonished at the price run up over the last year.

Baez578

The interest is still there as you can tell but so many are being priced out. I don't think the price will go down either since inventory will become more scarce on the pre-80 cards. Should "stabilize" a bit though

Davis

I'm thinking we might not be able to fully sell the pre-1980 wax baseball packs. What happens if we don't have enough buyers? I doubt bbce would negotiate a lower price.

Davis

Also, I was wondering why we didn't do any hockey in the group rip. And now I realize....I was just looking at the prices of the boxes of OPC hockey on the bbce site. The price of the 80/81 and 86/87 certainly make it not worth ripping those boxes. 84/85 OPC might have sold out though.

cpamike

<< <i>Also, I was wondering why we didn't do any hockey in the group rip. And now I realize....I was just looking at the prices of the boxes of OPC hockey on the bbce site. The price of the 80/81 and 86/87 certainly make it not worth ripping those boxes. 84/85 OPC might have sold out though. >>



Based on experience, hockey has always lagged behind baseball and football when conducting these group box breaks (notice I didn't say "rip" ) which is why it was not added to the menu.

cpamike

<< <i>I'm thinking we might not be able to fully sell the pre-1980 wax baseball packs. What happens if we don't have enough buyers? I doubt bbce would negotiate a lower price. >>



If not enough people commit to all the packs in a box, it will just be listed back on BBCE's website for sale. Occasionally this does happen, but usually with hockey.

lahmejoon

Here's an accountant for you:

I purchased 79 cellos on 11/8/11 through a group break for $15.94 each. After allocating shipping & insurance, they were $18.38 each.

bigdcards

If we don't sell the box entirely, we just don't buy the box. The reservations are cancelled. If we are close though, people post "come on guys" and eventually someone cracks.

Hockey frequently didn't sell out with 10% off and the market wasn't this crazy. I suspect that's why it was left out, but you have to ask Mark to know for sure.

cpamike

<< <i>If we don't sell the box entirely, we just don't buy the box. The reservations are cancelled. If we are close though, people post "come on guys" and eventually someone cracks. >>



You are right.

cincyredlegs

<< <i>If we don't sell the box entirely, we just don't buy the box. The reservations are cancelled. If we are close though, people post "come on guys" and eventually someone cracks.

Hockey frequently didn't sell out with 10% off and the market wasn't this crazy. I suspect that's why it was left out, but you have to ask Mark to know for sure. >>




I didn't think we the product we had at the prices listed we would be able to sell out hockey. Mike is right, we have always had trouble selling the high $ hockey boxes. 82/83 and 83/84 OPC would sell as would some of the topps. 80/81, 85/85 OPC were almost impossible. Plus being 48 packs made it that much more difficult. Hockey can sell out but has to be the right place/right time.

Mark

jmoran19

<< <i>Here's an accountant for you:

I purchased 79 cellos on 11/8/11 through a group break for $15.94 each. After allocating shipping & insurance, they were $18.38 each. >>



LOL that's exactly how everything goes into my speadsheet too. And here is a shocker, im a accountant too. Being a Virgo is just icing on the cake LOL

ndleo

The early 1980's stuff sold out quickly. Even the 89UD sold out. I always thought that collectors/investors would start moving to 1981-1986 product once the late 1970's-1980 boxes broke $1000+.

Over the past month, the 1981-1988 boxes (except 1988 baseball ha ha) I have listed all move rather quickly. The higher priced stuff sells much slower at these prices.

Mefer

I still participate, but to a more limited degree, as I personally believe 77-80 unopened is too high for my taste. I did however put in for 78 and 79 cellos in this current group rip as my personal opinion is that cellos may be a better investment (can be graded and top and bottom cards can be viewed). I still feel 75 Mini Wax is solid value and continue to buy those packs when I can.

In the end, you really have to step back and ascertain what are your objectives. If you are hoping to rip with the hope of hitting big on some PSA 10s, you are most likely going to take a huge bath with 77-80 product. Take 78 for example-- there are many 10s you can pick up now on eBay for $10.00 or so a piece. Four or five years ago, the baseline price for 10s seemed to be $50.00 and up AND a wax box could be had for around 500. Additionally, grading fees were a bit lower. Now with wax boxes over 2k, grading fees increased, and many 10s barely being worth above grading fees, you have to hope on hitting really big (PSA 10 Ryan, Brett, Molitor or Murray for example). Odds are way against you.

If, on the other hand, you are collecting with the intent of keeping the product sealed, you can approach it differently and assess what is the extrinsic value of the unopened item in question, your sense of growth in value with that product, etc. It is a totally different assessment.

I used to be more of a ripper but have switched my focus to keeping product sealed. I am enjoying that aspect of collecting as many of you do as well.

One last thought-- if you are looking to rip, I can still see some potential value in ripping 81 Topps. You can chase the big elusive dogs (Kirk Gibson and Fernando) and still hit on some solid value 10s. Packs are under $10.00 a piece so it is not entirely horrid if you strike out.

Just my two cents. Your mileage may vary!

Matt