<< <i>I've been waiting for two years now for a correction. I'd like to start buying 1970s wax, cello and rack boxes again.
I understand the argument re sets vs unopened but the comparison is apples and oranges. The inherent value in unopened is inextricably linked to the packaging itself, the state of packs in their unopened state. Why are Star Wars toys in blister packs worth much more than the figure itself even in mint condition? Because of the scarcity of finding that figure in its original state. There's a special magical allure in unopened product that will always appeal to colectors but not all collectors are drawn to that and that's fine, too. The hobby is big enough for all kinds of collectors, even that shiny modern crap. >>
i get it and i agree there's definitely a premium associated. it's a question of how big that premium is though. in your star wars example, how many of those figures in the original blister are going to run you north of $1,000? just a handful.
i'm not saying i'm not drawn to it, either, i've looked at some of the unopened myself and i absolutely love seeing it. i sort of get the pack collections, it's much more affordable. i kind of get the boxes, but not necessarily so much, i mean if i wanted couldn't i just put together a bunch of packs in a minty fresh empty box and have something that LOOKS exactly the same? YES, and it would be a TON CHEAPER!
so the premium we're seeing is that's it's UNSEARCHED - why is that important if you're just looking at it? does it not indicate that the premium is at least in some way associated with what MIGHT be inside? i just don't think there's any way to deny that's true.
maybe there are enough people out there who buy this stuff and don't want to open it to keep pushing higher, the multiples thus far have been pretty impressive but can it really continue? i think it's going to be tough at the multiple thousand dollar price levels. the room for error is just SO HUGE right now on this stuff.
<< <i>Just curious, because it preceded my getting back into the hobby. When the Conlon stash of 75 mini boxes/cases found their way to the market, did the prices of the boxes come down because of the sudden insertion back into the supply pool? >>
I remember those REA auctions well~I thought they made a mistake bundling multiple cases in single lots as I would have liked a single case, and prices realized were quite bargain-like~at about $750 per box IIRC. I bought several boxes right afterwards for $800-$1K, which was lower than the market value prior to the Conlon auction--right prior to that, mini boxes were trading for around $1,200 per. But that window after the REA auction closed rather quickly~it wasn't long before the market absorbed the influx and prices began steadily rising to the point where fast forward several years later and a 75 mini box is close to 3K. Funny thing, too, is that I can remember in early 2000s, mini boxes were actually at around $1,500 per. They actually declined in value from 2001-2007, dropped rather steeply in short term after the REA auction, before not only rebounding but blowing past all previous values.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I can definitely see 50s and 60s unopened material with ironclad provenance being very rare and highly sought after.
Grote's point is really all that matters from the collector standpoint; collectors of that material see something very special in it being in its original state, and that state transcends the contents of the material. End of the day, whatever a collector likes and wants to pay for what he likes is entirely his business, and if he's happy, that's all that counts.
Transitioning to observations on this material as a hobbyist... when it comes to the 70s stuff, it seems the main supplier always has it available when it is time to sell at the highest prices, so I am not sure it is as rare as often touted; and moreover, with no type of population report data on the material, such quantification of supply is not as readily made as with graded cards. Hence I am always hesitant to pull the trigger on an expensive piece of unopened; I don't have a gauge of how many exist, and on principal am not comfortable when the authenticator is also the seller and the piece will likely never be opened, so I'd never know if it was fake or not, but that is just me. If PSA suddenly started to sell cards directly, that would give me pause.
End of the day, a veteran collector who knows his field-- like Grote and so many others do when it comes to unopened-- is able to tell what the good stuff is on their own, and they know when and on what to pull the trigger. It's a specialized slice of card collecting and requires its own expertise; I can often spot a shaved, filed, or trimmed edge, or an ironed out crease, or a rebuilt corner, or a fake card-- but I am utterly clueless on what to look for in a resealed pack. Sometimes I wish I had that knowledge so I could get a great box to display, but then again maybe I should thank heavens I don't know my way around wax boxes too well, because it may lead to the poor house!
<< <i>When did that collection become available, Tim? Was it around 2007? >>
It was 2009, IIRC, Aaron.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Three Mini wax CASES sold for 35K...fast forward 5 years and Steve has ONE 75 mini wax case priced at 49K!!!! >>
<< <i>SEVEN 75 Mini cases sold for 76K....that's just 11K per CASE! Even at 40K a case, that's a 200K profit in 5 years! Man, now I feel depressed, LOL!! >>
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 49K.
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 40K, nevermind 7 of them.
<< <i>Three Mini wax CASES sold for 35K...fast forward 5 years and Steve has ONE 75 mini wax case priced at 49K!!!! >>
<< <i>SEVEN 75 Mini cases sold for 76K....that's just 11K per CASE! Even at 40K a case, that's a 200K profit in 5 years! Man, now I feel depressed, LOL!! >>
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 49K.
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 40K, nevermind 7 of them. >>
Incorrect. Steve sold a 75 mini case at last years National for 39K. And that was last year. Boxes sell between 2800 and 3k routinely and there are 16 boxes in a case. Do the math from there and 40k for a case is a conservative estimate. Too low, actually.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Incorrect. Steve sold a 75 mini case at last years National for 39K. And that was last year. Boxes sell between 2800 and 3k routinely and there are 16 boxes in a case. Do the math from there and 40k for a case is a conservative estimate. Too low, actually. >>
That case last year didn't sell for 39K. It was priced at 39K, and it did sell, but it didn't sell for 39K.
Tony Arnold has had a case for many months priced at 50K with no takers. He's breaking it down right now at the National at 3350 a box. Will the boxes sell? Who knows but nobody is plunking down that much scratch for a full case.
I for one enjoy seeing the unopened pics. I'm not an unopened collector, that's not my niche, never has been. But for the guys on here who are into unopened, I hope the market stays strong. I believe in the long run it helps all us collectors, regardless of niche. Some may agree with me, some may not.
<< <i>Incorrect. Steve sold a 75 mini case at last years National for 39K. And that was last year. Boxes sell between 2800 and 3k routinely and there are 16 boxes in a case. Do the math from there and 40k for a case is a conservative estimate. Too low, actually. >>
That case last year didn't sell for 39K. It was priced at 39K, and it did sell, but it didn't sell for 39K.
Tony Arnold has had a case for many months priced at 50K with no takers. He's breaking it down right now at the National at 3350 a box. Will the boxes sell? Who knows but nobody is plunking down that much scratch for a full case.
Too low. Hysterical. Gotta love the hype. >>
Hype? Nope, thems facts. A 75 mini wax box sells for $2,800 easily in todays market. There are 16 wax boxes in a case. 16 x $2,800=$44,800. If Steve priced a 75 mini wax case at 40k at the National it would sell that same day. Easily.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Put differently, given that Steve's buy price on a mini case has been at $36k for some time, do you really think he would sell one for $40k? He is at 3k a box for loose and $3,250 for case sealed boxes at the moment.
Also, Tony's case was up on ebay for maybe a month, not "many months".
Of course, I am responding to an alt, so I have no idea why I bothered waste my keystrokes.
<< <i>Didn't these Mini boxes sell for like 1200 to 1500 not long ago? Not sure many are buying them at $3300+ a box, but then you just need 16 people >>
They sold for 1200-1500 several years ago. They've been at 2500+ past couple of years, closer to 3K now.
As always, Jim is spot on also when it comes to minis.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
That was 2010-2011. They popped in 12 and have moved steadily up since. That only makes sense given that the Conlon horde needed time to be digested/ripped. I personally ripped two of those cases in aggregate, Henry ripped one himself and I believe Eric ripped at least two as well. Not to mention all the other folks who have ripped multiple boxes, and yes held some as well.
<< <i>Hype? Nope, thems facts. A 75 mini wax box sells for $2,800 easily in todays market. There are 16 wax boxes in a case. 16 x $2,800=$44,800. If Steve priced a 75 mini wax case at 40k at the National it would sell that same day. Easily. >>
Yes, hype. And you're amongst the worst offenders.
Facts? Where? Boxes of Minis aren't flying off the shelf at current price levels. And we're talking about the price of cases, not boxes.
You claim that, if offered, a case would easily sell at 40K that same day. Here's a fact: a case of 1975 Topps Minis has never sold for that much.
Full disclosure and irony. I happened to be the buyer of the REA lot that Tim happened to link as well as an opened case the following year.
I broke one, bought a bunch of boxes from Duncan to rip. Sold two in 2011 for what I paid for the lot and kept the third for myself. Obviously, I wish I had held all three, but the one I still have was free and that was my aim from the start.
They are expensive now compared to the dip created by the sale of the Conlon horde, but quite honestly, I still see them as cheap in relation to the broader market. Which would you rather own to keep or rip, a mini box or a 76 vending box?
I would take the mini box any day. Even at $2,800 a box, a box yielding a nice run of centered cards is still one on which you can come out ahead, even in this market.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Steve pay even stronger than his kong ago listed buy price of 36K as these cases become scarcer now that many of the REA cases have neen absorbed into the market and broken down.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Full disclosure and irony. I happened to be the buyer of the REA lot that Tim happened to link as well as an opened case the following year.
I broke one, bought a bunch of boxes from Duncan to rip. Sold two in 2011 for what I paid for the lot and kept the third for myself. Obviously, I wish I had held all three, but the one I still have was free and that was my aim from the start.
They are expensive now compared to the dip created by the sale of the Conlon horde, but quite honestly, I still see them as cheap in relation to the broader market. Which would you rather own to keep or rip, a mini box or a 76 vending box? >>
i agree with you on the 75 minis versus anything 76, or honestly anything else from the back half of that decade. but cheap at $3k per box? i don't know about that, but it's all comparative i guess and as you said "against the broader market" - that might be true.
compared to say the 1970 vendor at $10k, sure i agree take the 75s all day long.
but how about compared to the PWCC 75 mini set fully graded at $3,050 (avg grade was above 7.5)? i think if people had time to sit down and think about it (that's a couple grand in grading costs alone!), more just might take that set than a box that won't get you a set and would require 10s out of brett or yount to even get close to value. i would take the set in a heartbeat over the box.
yes, i know i focus on break value, but as it stands right now what's easier to find - a 75 mini box or a fully graded 75 mini set in 7.5+? heck, some of the cards only have graded pops in the 60s TOTAL across all grades.
A PSA 10 Brett or Yount RC would command 15-20K at auction. A PSA 9 low pop common like Claudell Washington or Tommy Davis would pay for half a box at least. There are many $500+ cards in PSA 9 or 10 in the mini set. One of my all time favorites.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You know NOTHING Jon Snow... I rip every single thing I get my hands on. I want unopened as a whole to be a hell of a lot cheaper than it is now. I do happen to own a mini case, which is no secret to anyone on this board, sheesh, read my signature. It is not for sale, it was always my intention to work a free case to be mine to own with no pressure and I did that. Ideally, some day it will belong to my son.
That said, I will call BS when I see it, especially from an alt. Saying that no one has ever paid 40k for a mini case is like saying no one has ever paid 40k for a 78 wax case. That was then, this is now.
<< <i>A PSA 10 Brett or Yount RC would command 15-20K at auction. A PSA 9 low pop common like Claudell Washington or Tommy Davis would pay for half a box at least. There are many $500+ cards in PSA 9 low or 10 in the mini set. One of my all time favorites. >>
right, but you're not really going to get those, or you certainly can't count on any of it. you're most likely going to get a brett in a 8, and you'll have to sub 100+ cards to try and pull the 10s and some 9s as you point out, and that all assumes the things are actually centered in the first place which most of them won't be.
i love this set, too, wish i'd bought the one in the PWCC auction because i think that was a freaking steal for $3k.
yes, there are comparable boxes that these would stack up nicely to, but at $3k to break it's a total gamble and starting to be a pretty expensive one.
A 7.5 75 mini set can be put together rather inexpensively, no question (most 7s retail for less than the grading fee) and for a set collector of mid grade cards that may be perfectly fine. The value of such a set has no correlation, though, really, with an unopened 75 mini wax box. And the hits are still out there even at these prices. Just ask ryanseven, who bought all 20 or so remaining mini wax packs from BBCE and ripped them all. After the cards he pulled and the grades he got, I'm sure he'd be the first person to tell you he'd rip another 20 from that case if he could. It's such experiences that make unopened as appealing as it is for both rippers and non-rippers alike.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>A 7.5 75 mini set can be put together rather inexpensively, no question (most 7s retail for less than the grading fee) and for a set collector of mid grade cards that may be perfectly fine. The value of such a set has no correlation, though, really, with an unopened 75 mini wax box. And the hits are still out there even at these prices. Just ask ryanseven, who bought all 20 or so remaining mini wax packs from BBCE and ripped them all. After the cards he pulled and the grades he got, I'm sure he'd be the first person to tell you he'd rip another 20 from that case if he could. It's such experiences that make unopened as appealing as it is for both rippers and non-rippers alike. >>
ok, but how long would that take? if you want to keep it inexpensive, it will take many months if not YEARS to do unless you spend extra on grading fees and hit pretty consistently which is pretty hard to do.
the set and the boxes are highly correlated, the boxes hold a premium for the potential "hits".
i get the appeal, but we're talking about 20 packs versus a full box versus a 16 box case. one guy did ok, but you don't think we could find 20 others who opened 1 pack and had absolutely nothing to show for it but the experience? that experience is what they paid for obviously.
again i've said all along i get the individual or few packs sort of thing including not opening them. that's a couple hundred dollar or less type of decision.
$3k is different for most people for an experience (that's the cost of a decent vacation), and $40k isn't even in the realm of thought for 99% of the collective universe. that's like a salary, not an experience.
Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb?
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
None of them can hold a candle to Billy Wagner though!! Snuffy, please elaborate!! Lol!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
<< <i>None of them can hold a candle to Billy Wagner though!! Snuffy, please elaborate!! Lol!! >>
I am so glad you brought this excellent point up Tim!
Billy Wagner all-time relief pitcher rankings (500+ innings)
LOB% - 1ST (probably THE most important stat for a reliever) AVG - 1ST K/9 - 1ST (also all-time for ALL pitchers) K% - 1ST ERA - 2ND ERA- - 2ND WHIP - 3RD FIP- - 3RD WAR - 4TH FIP - 4TH Saves - 5TH Ks - 6TH K/BB - 6TH
I love how everyone just ignores this. I haven't seen one good argument as to why Wagner shouldn't be at least talked about for the Hall and when pertinent info is posted, it gets ignored. So many heads buried under so much sand.
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
But what about Carl Yastrzemski? >>
Yep, Babe Ruth too. >>
Who's Babe Ruth? >>
Lol. It's a candy bar. >>
Or a hot girl whose name happens to be Ruth..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
To me, a more cogent question is: if you are into unopened collecting -- as I am to some extent -- and you stipulate that unopened pricing is not connected to break value -- then how the heck do you decide what anything is worth? You pay $50 for a '79 wax tray...then you pay $175...how do you know when to say no mas?
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
i believe certain unopened prices are way too high, yes. i never said all. i think the 75 minis are at an interesting price point, because there could be a single winner to pay for the box - that doesn't make it "cheap" though and there appears to be a decent supply as we sit here today. trend may be up, but i say it's starting to get stretched.
nothing ever just goes straight up, and that's what a lot of the unopened 70s material has been doing now for some time. when it crosses the point of being paid for by that single hit, the risk goes WAY UP. 75s are probably near to passing that point, some of the other already has.
the market is reflecting strong demand for sure. when will that stop? and what will happen when it does? any real correction WILL hurt, and people won't be able to sell fast enough. that's always how these things play out, baseball cards or otherwise.
but please keep posting the pictures - i do like to see this stuff
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
To me, a more cogent question is: if you are into unopened collecting -- as I am to some extent -- and you stipulate that unopened pricing is not connected to break value -- then how the heck do you decide what anything is worth? You pay $50 for a '79 wax tray...then you pay $175...how do you know when to say no mas? >>
David, I think the market dictates that (at least for me)--so if a '79 tray retails for $135-$140 (which is what they've been going for in the past few months--they haven't been $50 for a couple of years now) then $170 for a tray holdered and shrinkwrapped by Steve and labeled from a sealed case sems reasonable. Especially as these trays are so prone to tears and splits when found loose on the market--I know you are very fussy about condition of the cellophane wrapping on these wax trays, as well, so when a case fresh one comes up for sale, the small premium is worth it, imo..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
but please keep posting the pictures - i do like to see this stuff
Will do! Frankly, I'd like to see a bit of a correction myself, as I've been priced out of much of what I used to buy routinely. But authentic unopened is just getting scarcer, and this conversation has been going on here on these forums for at least 18 months before you joined CU, and we have yet to see any real decline in prices. If anything, I think prices will level off at some point, but the days of $400 1978 wax and cello boxes are long gone~in retrosopect, prices on much of that product was rather undervalued for an extended period of time during the early to late 2000s.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
When you can no longer afford it or when the total satisfaction received from the purchase is less than the satisfaction received from purchasing something else.
When you can no longer afford it or when the total satisfaction received from the purchase is less than the satisfaction received from purchasing something else. >>
Very wise words from the Snuffster!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Comments
<< <i>I've been waiting for two years now for a correction. I'd like to start buying 1970s wax, cello and rack boxes again.
I understand the argument re sets vs unopened but the comparison is apples and oranges. The inherent value in unopened is inextricably linked to the packaging itself, the state of packs in their unopened state. Why are Star Wars toys in blister packs worth much more than the figure itself even in mint condition? Because of the scarcity of finding that figure in its original state. There's a special magical allure in unopened product that will always appeal to colectors but not all collectors are drawn to that and that's fine, too. The hobby is big enough for all kinds of collectors, even that shiny modern crap.
i get it and i agree there's definitely a premium associated. it's a question of how big that premium is though. in your star wars example, how many of those figures in the original blister are going to run you north of $1,000? just a handful.
i'm not saying i'm not drawn to it, either, i've looked at some of the unopened myself and i absolutely love seeing it. i sort of get the pack collections, it's much more affordable. i kind of get the boxes, but not necessarily so much, i mean if i wanted couldn't i just put together a bunch of packs in a minty fresh empty box and have something that LOOKS exactly the same? YES, and it would be a TON CHEAPER!
so the premium we're seeing is that's it's UNSEARCHED - why is that important if you're just looking at it? does it not indicate that the premium is at least in some way associated with what MIGHT be inside? i just don't think there's any way to deny that's true.
maybe there are enough people out there who buy this stuff and don't want to open it to keep pushing higher, the multiples thus far have been pretty impressive but can it really continue? i think it's going to be tough at the multiple thousand dollar price levels. the room for error is just SO HUGE right now on this stuff.
<< <i>Just curious, because it preceded my getting back into the hobby. When the Conlon stash of 75 mini boxes/cases found their way to the market, did the prices of the boxes come down because of the sudden insertion back into the supply pool? >>
I remember those REA auctions well~I thought they made a mistake bundling multiple cases in single lots as I would have liked a single case, and prices realized were quite bargain-like~at about $750 per box IIRC. I bought several boxes right afterwards for $800-$1K, which was lower than the market value prior to the Conlon auction--right prior to that, mini boxes were trading for around $1,200 per. But that window after the REA auction closed rather quickly~it wasn't long before the market absorbed the influx and prices began steadily rising to the point where fast forward several years later and a 75 mini box is close to 3K. Funny thing, too, is that I can remember in early 2000s, mini boxes were actually at around $1,500 per. They actually declined in value from 2001-2007, dropped rather steeply in short term after the REA auction, before not only rebounding but blowing past all previous values.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Is that a 52 topps pack I see in one of the pics? >>
1954, I believe. >>
Yes, 1954. >>
Thanks guys. I'm not exactly an expert on unopened 50s
Grote's point is really all that matters from the collector standpoint; collectors of that material see something very special in it being in its original state, and that state transcends the contents of the material. End of the day, whatever a collector likes and wants to pay for what he likes is entirely his business, and if he's happy, that's all that counts.
Transitioning to observations on this material as a hobbyist... when it comes to the 70s stuff, it seems the main supplier always has it available when it is time to sell at the highest prices, so I am not sure it is as rare as often touted; and moreover, with no type of population report data on the material, such quantification of supply is not as readily made as with graded cards. Hence I am always hesitant to pull the trigger on an expensive piece of unopened; I don't have a gauge of how many exist, and on principal am not comfortable when the authenticator is also the seller and the piece will likely never be opened, so I'd never know if it was fake or not, but that is just me. If PSA suddenly started to sell cards directly, that would give me pause.
End of the day, a veteran collector who knows his field-- like Grote and so many others do when it comes to unopened-- is able to tell what the good stuff is on their own, and they know when and on what to pull the trigger. It's a specialized slice of card collecting and requires its own expertise; I can often spot a shaved, filed, or trimmed edge, or an ironed out crease, or a rebuilt corner, or a fake card-- but I am utterly clueless on what to look for in a resealed pack. Sometimes I wish I had that knowledge so I could get a great box to display, but then again maybe I should thank heavens I don't know my way around wax boxes too well, because it may lead to the poor house!
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>When did that collection become available, Tim? Was it around 2007? >>
It was 2009, IIRC, Aaron.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
REA Auction 75 Mini Cases
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
75 Mini cases REA
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Three Mini wax CASES sold for 35K...fast forward 5 years and Steve has ONE 75 mini wax case priced at 49K!!!! >>
<< <i>SEVEN 75 Mini cases sold for 76K....that's just 11K per CASE! Even at 40K a case, that's a 200K profit in 5 years! Man, now I feel depressed, LOL!! >>
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 49K.
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 40K, nevermind 7 of them.
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<< <i>Three Mini wax CASES sold for 35K...fast forward 5 years and Steve has ONE 75 mini wax case priced at 49K!!!! >>
<< <i>SEVEN 75 Mini cases sold for 76K....that's just 11K per CASE! Even at 40K a case, that's a 200K profit in 5 years! Man, now I feel depressed, LOL!! >>
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 49K.
Nobody is buying a 1975 Topps Mini case for 40K, nevermind 7 of them. >>
Incorrect. Steve sold a 75 mini case at last years National for 39K. And that was last year. Boxes sell between 2800 and 3k routinely and there are 16 boxes in a case. Do the math from there and 40k for a case is a conservative estimate. Too low, actually.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Incorrect. Steve sold a 75 mini case at last years National for 39K. And that was last year. Boxes sell between 2800 and 3k routinely and there are 16 boxes in a case. Do the math from there and 40k for a case is a conservative estimate. Too low, actually. >>
That case last year didn't sell for 39K. It was priced at 39K, and it did sell, but it didn't sell for 39K.
Tony Arnold has had a case for many months priced at 50K with no takers. He's breaking it down right now at the National at 3350 a box. Will the boxes sell? Who knows but nobody is plunking down that much scratch for a full case.
Too low. Hysterical. Gotta love the hype.
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<< <i>Is that a 52 topps pack I see in one of the pics? >>
1954, I believe. >>
Yes, 1954. >>
It's a Canadian '54 Topps pack, I sold it to Steve at last years National.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
An interview with Reed discussing the booth and the vintage pack market is here.
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<< <i>Incorrect. Steve sold a 75 mini case at last years National for 39K. And that was last year. Boxes sell between 2800 and 3k routinely and there are 16 boxes in a case. Do the math from there and 40k for a case is a conservative estimate. Too low, actually. >>
That case last year didn't sell for 39K. It was priced at 39K, and it did sell, but it didn't sell for 39K.
Tony Arnold has had a case for many months priced at 50K with no takers. He's breaking it down right now at the National at 3350 a box. Will the boxes sell? Who knows but nobody is plunking down that much scratch for a full case.
Too low. Hysterical. Gotta love the hype. >>
Hype? Nope, thems facts. A 75 mini wax box sells for $2,800 easily in todays market. There are 16 wax boxes in a case. 16 x $2,800=$44,800. If Steve priced a 75 mini wax case at 40k at the National it would sell that same day. Easily.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Also, Tony's case was up on ebay for maybe a month, not "many months".
Of course, I am responding to an alt, so I have no idea why I bothered waste my keystrokes.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>Didn't these Mini boxes sell for like 1200 to 1500 not long ago? Not sure many are buying them at $3300+ a box, but then you just need 16 people >>
They sold for 1200-1500 several years ago. They've been at 2500+ past couple of years, closer to 3K now.
As always, Jim is spot on also when it comes to minis.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>Hype? Nope, thems facts. A 75 mini wax box sells for $2,800 easily in todays market. There are 16 wax boxes in a case. 16 x $2,800=$44,800. If Steve priced a 75 mini wax case at 40k at the National it would sell that same day. Easily. >>
Yes, hype. And you're amongst the worst offenders.
Facts? Where? Boxes of Minis aren't flying off the shelf at current price levels. And we're talking about the price of cases, not boxes.
You claim that, if offered, a case would easily sell at 40K that same day. Here's a fact: a case of 1975 Topps Minis has never sold for that much.
I broke one, bought a bunch of boxes from Duncan to rip. Sold two in 2011 for what I paid for the lot and kept the third for myself. Obviously, I wish I had held all three, but the one I still have was free and that was my aim from the start.
They are expensive now compared to the dip created by the sale of the Conlon horde, but quite honestly, I still see them as cheap in relation to the broader market. Which would you rather own to keep or rip, a mini box or a 76 vending box?
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>Also, Tony's case was up on ebay for maybe a month, not "many months". >>
Tony's case has been available for sale for MANY MONTHS with no takers. It doesn't matter how long it was listed on ebay. It was available for sale.
MiniDuff is sitting on at least 1 case of Minis, so obviously he's going to hype this stuff.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Steve pay even stronger than his kong ago listed buy price of 36K as these cases become scarcer now that many of the REA cases have neen absorbed into the market and broken down.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Full disclosure and irony. I happened to be the buyer of the REA lot that Tim happened to link as well as an opened case the following year.
I broke one, bought a bunch of boxes from Duncan to rip. Sold two in 2011 for what I paid for the lot and kept the third for myself. Obviously, I wish I had held all three, but the one I still have was free and that was my aim from the start.
They are expensive now compared to the dip created by the sale of the Conlon horde, but quite honestly, I still see them as cheap in relation to the broader market. Which would you rather own to keep or rip, a mini box or a 76 vending box? >>
i agree with you on the 75 minis versus anything 76, or honestly anything else from the back half of that decade. but cheap at $3k per box? i don't know about that, but it's all comparative i guess and as you said "against the broader market" - that might be true.
compared to say the 1970 vendor at $10k, sure i agree take the 75s all day long.
but how about compared to the PWCC 75 mini set fully graded at $3,050 (avg grade was above 7.5)? i think if people had time to sit down and think about it (that's a couple grand in grading costs alone!), more just might take that set than a box that won't get you a set and would require 10s out of brett or yount to even get close to value. i would take the set in a heartbeat over the box.
yes, i know i focus on break value, but as it stands right now what's easier to find - a 75 mini box or a fully graded 75 mini set in 7.5+? heck, some of the cards only have graded pops in the 60s TOTAL across all grades.
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What is the 75 Carter cello going for?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You know NOTHING Jon Snow... I rip every single thing I get my hands on. I want unopened as a whole to be a hell of a lot cheaper than it is now. I do happen to own a mini case, which is no secret to anyone on this board, sheesh, read my signature. It is not for sale, it was always my intention to work a free case to be mine to own with no pressure and I did that. Ideally, some day it will belong to my son.
That said, I will call BS when I see it, especially from an alt. Saying that no one has ever paid 40k for a mini case is like saying no one has ever paid 40k for a 78 wax case. That was then, this is now.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>A PSA 10 Brett or Yount RC would command 15-20K at auction. A PSA 9 low pop common like Claudell Washington or Tommy Davis would pay for half a box at least. There are many $500+ cards in PSA 9 low or 10 in the mini set. One of my all time favorites. >>
right, but you're not really going to get those, or you certainly can't count on any of it. you're most likely going to get a brett in a 8, and you'll have to sub 100+ cards to try and pull the 10s and some 9s as you point out, and that all assumes the things are actually centered in the first place which most of them won't be.
i love this set, too, wish i'd bought the one in the PWCC auction because i think that was a freaking steal for $3k.
yes, there are comparable boxes that these would stack up nicely to, but at $3k to break it's a total gamble and starting to be a pretty expensive one.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>A 7.5 75 mini set can be put together rather inexpensively, no question (most 7s retail for less than the grading fee) and for a set collector of mid grade cards that may be perfectly fine. The value of such a set has no correlation, though, really, with an unopened 75 mini wax box. And the hits are still out there even at these prices. Just ask ryanseven, who bought all 20 or so remaining mini wax packs from BBCE and ripped them all. After the cards he pulled and the grades he got, I'm sure he'd be the first person to tell you he'd rip another 20 from that case if he could. It's such experiences that make unopened as appealing as it is for both rippers and non-rippers alike. >>
ok, but how long would that take? if you want to keep it inexpensive, it will take many months if not YEARS to do unless you spend extra on grading fees and hit pretty consistently which is pretty hard to do.
the set and the boxes are highly correlated, the boxes hold a premium for the potential "hits".
i get the appeal, but we're talking about 20 packs versus a full box versus a 16 box case. one guy did ok, but you don't think we could find 20 others who opened 1 pack and had absolutely nothing to show for it but the experience? that experience is what they paid for obviously.
again i've said all along i get the individual or few packs sort of thing including not opening them. that's a couple hundred dollar or less type of decision.
$3k is different for most people for an experience (that's the cost of a decent vacation), and $40k isn't even in the realm of thought for 99% of the collective universe. that's like a salary, not an experience.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb?
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders.
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
None of them can hold a candle to Billy Wagner though!! Snuffy, please elaborate!! Lol!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
But what about Carl Yastrzemski?
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
But what about Carl Yastrzemski? >>
Yep, Babe Ruth too.
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
<< <i>None of them can hold a candle to Billy Wagner though!! Snuffy, please elaborate!! Lol!! >>
I am so glad you brought this excellent point up Tim!
Billy Wagner all-time relief pitcher rankings (500+ innings)
LOB% - 1ST (probably THE most important stat for a reliever)
AVG - 1ST
K/9 - 1ST (also all-time for ALL pitchers)
K% - 1ST
ERA - 2ND
ERA- - 2ND
WHIP - 3RD
FIP- - 3RD
WAR - 4TH
FIP - 4TH
Saves - 5TH
Ks - 6TH
K/BB - 6TH
I love how everyone just ignores this. I haven't seen one good argument as to why Wagner shouldn't be at least talked about for the Hall and when pertinent info is posted, it gets ignored. So many heads buried under so much sand.
So many heads Tim!!! So many!!!!!
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
But what about Carl Yastrzemski? >>
Yep, Babe Ruth too. >>
Who's Babe Ruth?
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
But what about Carl Yastrzemski? >>
Yep, Babe Ruth too. >>
Who's Babe Ruth? >>
Lol. It's a candy bar.
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
Now that this is settled, can we all agree Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb? >>
and both are better than Barry Sanders. >>
But what about Carl Yastrzemski? >>
Yep, Babe Ruth too. >>
Who's Babe Ruth? >>
Lol. It's a candy bar. >>
Or a hot girl whose name happens to be Ruth..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Man who places head in sand will get kicked in the end!
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
To me, a more cogent question is: if you are into unopened collecting -- as I am to some extent -- and you stipulate that unopened pricing is not connected to break value -- then how the heck do you decide what anything is worth? You pay $50 for a '79 wax tray...then you pay $175...how do you know when to say no mas?
<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
i believe certain unopened prices are way too high, yes. i never said all. i think the 75 minis are at an interesting price point, because there could be a single winner to pay for the box - that doesn't make it "cheap" though and there appears to be a decent supply as we sit here today. trend may be up, but i say it's starting to get stretched.
nothing ever just goes straight up, and that's what a lot of the unopened 70s material has been doing now for some time. when it crosses the point of being paid for by that single hit, the risk goes WAY UP. 75s are probably near to passing that point, some of the other already has.
the market is reflecting strong demand for sure. when will that stop? and what will happen when it does? any real correction WILL hurt, and people won't be able to sell fast enough. that's always how these things play out, baseball cards or otherwise.
but please keep posting the pictures - i do like to see this stuff
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<< <i>Bounce, I understand your opinion--you believe unopened prices are way too high vs the cards inside the packs. You've said that multiple times now. Not everyone is into unopened collecting and that's fine. But many are for many valid reasons and the market reflects that. To each their own. >>
To me, a more cogent question is: if you are into unopened collecting -- as I am to some extent -- and you stipulate that unopened pricing is not connected to break value -- then how the heck do you decide what anything is worth? You pay $50 for a '79 wax tray...then you pay $175...how do you know when to say no mas? >>
David, I think the market dictates that (at least for me)--so if a '79 tray retails for $135-$140 (which is what they've been going for in the past few months--they haven't been $50 for a couple of years now) then $170 for a tray holdered and shrinkwrapped by Steve and labeled from a sealed case sems reasonable. Especially as these trays are so prone to tears and splits when found loose on the market--I know you are very fussy about condition of the cellophane wrapping on these wax trays, as well, so when a case fresh one comes up for sale, the small premium is worth it, imo..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Will do! Frankly, I'd like to see a bit of a correction myself, as I've been priced out of much of what I used to buy routinely. But authentic unopened is just getting scarcer, and this conversation has been going on here on these forums for at least 18 months before you joined CU, and we have yet to see any real decline in prices. If anything, I think prices will level off at some point, but the days of $400 1978 wax and cello boxes are long gone~in retrosopect, prices on much of that product was rather undervalued for an extended period of time during the early to late 2000s.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>how do you know when to say no mas? >>
When you can no longer afford it or when the total satisfaction received from the purchase is less than the satisfaction received from purchasing something else.
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<< <i>how do you know when to say no mas? >>
When you can no longer afford it or when the total satisfaction received from the purchase is less than the satisfaction received from purchasing something else. >>
Very wise words from the Snuffster!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject