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If the U.S. Mint went back to only producing 5M ASE's/yr

piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
would that make Spot go up?
If so, to what value?
If not, why not?
Would it only affect the value (premium) of that years ASE and not the overall value of Spot?

Questions up for debate, what say you?
To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.

Comments

  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    I have always considered that some of the spot price is driven by silver collectors and the sheer volume they purchase.

    What is nobody collected or stacked silver?
    COA
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    If they scaled back to the past mintages of only 5M (think about that, still 5M coins) that would allow silver to run free again, and cause the premium to be even more on those highly over rated coins. image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the opposite would happen. Who would pick up the surplus of silver blanks no longer produced by the US Mint? Supply, demand & price are still the primary reason for a bullion coin purchase.
    Also, I had no idea, that in past years the Mint limited productions to 5M, I was under the impression...minted to demand.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    I wasn't implying they were limited to 5M OPA, just going off of what they were produced at until about '98.
    What I am saying/asking is what would happen to Spot if they scaled back to 5M/yr.. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If we just put the silver back in the buck…. about a dollar's worth. image
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I wasn't implying they were limited to 5M OPA, just going off of what they were produced at until about '98.
    What I am saying/asking is what would happen to Spot if they scaled back to 5M/yr.. Sorry for the misunderstanding. >>



    Spot would likely stay around the same, but the premium might go up.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ASE demand has nothing to do with spot. Neither does physical demand for any silver product. The price you pay for physical silver is determined by paper speculators and a couple of paper price manipulators.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    ASE demand has nothing to do with spot. Neither does physical demand for any silver product. The price you pay for physical silver is determined by paper speculators and a couple of paper price manipulators

    I get that, but you're saying the 25M or so less oz's that would not be in the market (physically) would have no impact on Spot? I fully ( mostly would be more accurate) understand the difference in the paper/physical markets, but there being 25M less oz's year over year would have zero impact on Spot? That's hard for me to see how it wouldn't be.
    I feel there's a direct connection in the ramping up in production of ASE's and the decline and now stagnation of the value of a physical oz of Silver.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • erickso1erickso1 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭


    << <i>ASE demand has nothing to do with spot. Neither does physical demand for any silver product. The price you pay for physical silver is determined by paper speculators and a couple of paper price manipulators

    I get that, but you're saying the 25M or so less oz's that would not be in the market (physically) would have no impact on Spot? I fully ( mostly would be more accurate) understand the difference in the paper/physical markets, but there being 25M less oz's year over year would have zero impact on Spot? That's hard for me to see how it wouldn't be.
    I feel there's a direct connection in the ramping up in production of ASE's and the decline and now stagnation of the value of a physical oz of Silver. >>



    It's an interesting question. Since the US Mint is not the only issuer of minted bullion, I think that the supply would find another way into the market to meet the demand. You wouldn't be restricting the silver from the market, you'd just be shutting off one conduit through which it flows. At least that is how I think it would shake out.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    I guess I'm not asking the question clearly enough, so I'll try this way.

    What would happen, or what would it cause to happen if from now on only 5M ASE's were minted each year, in effect, there would be 25M less oz's of physical silver in the marketplace and available for consumption by consumers?
    Would this have any effect on the value of Spot?
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    shhh.... 'we don't know..' 'or we dont' agree'... shhh....



    << <i>I guess I'm not asking the question clearly enough, so I'll try this way.

    What would happen, or what would it cause to happen if from now on only 5M ASE's were minted each year, in effect, there would be 25M less oz's of physical silver in the marketplace and available for consumption by consumers?
    Would this have any effect on the value of Spot? >>

    COA
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I guess I'm not asking the question clearly enough, so I'll try this way.

    What would happen, or what would it cause to happen if from now on only 5M ASE's were minted each year, in effect, there would be 25M less oz's of physical silver in the marketplace and available for consumption by consumers?
    Would this have any effect on the value of Spot? >>



    We don't know for a fact that if the mint chose to limit ASEs to 5 million per year that the other 25 million ounces would not be put into the market. Either the the mint or some other entity would would just put that 25 million onces into the market as rounds, bars or special mint coins.

    As an aside, is the silver market currently oversupplied, undersupplied or just about right in balance of supply with demand?
    theknowitalltroll;
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    oversupplied...without a doubt. Someone will say there's demand for it and that's why the Mint makes 25M more than they use to. What I'm saying is, they're killing the value by oversupplying.
    The abundance of the metal for collectible use has taken off and the Mint is certainly doing the right thing, for them. Just because the metal is available doesn't mean they have to make 25M more ASE's than what the market could get along without. There's always at least 2 ways to look at something.

    That's all personal feeling stuff though, so getting back to the questions about what would happen if suddenly 25M less oz's of Metal were produced a year. The Mint doesn't produce them, other Mints dont make up the difference, nothing like that...there is suddenly 25M less oz's of Silver available to the market, for whatever reason...what happens to Spot, if anything?

    please stop being so realistic and analytical about another Mint would make up the difference and so forth...it's a question asking as if, hypothetically, there are suddenly 25M less oz's of Silver to be produced over a period of years.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,471 ✭✭✭✭
    ASEs would then have a slight Panda like premium. Zero effect on spot price.
    Ag is a Billion Oz a year metal across all verticals.

    Loves me some shiny!
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it's a question asking as if, hypothetically, there are suddenly 25M less oz's of Silver to be produced over a period of years.

    they'd be hyped, labelled, slabbed and marketed. Lots o profit for the whole food chain (except maybe the poor end user who dies with the stuff)

    lather, rinse, repeat!

    (fresh)

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,824 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I guess I'm not asking the question clearly enough, so I'll try this way.

    What would happen, or what would it cause to happen if from now on only 5M ASE's were minted each year, in effect, there would be 25M less oz's of physical silver in the marketplace and available for consumption by consumers?
    Would this have any effect on the value of Spot? >>


    Guess I'm not answering the question clearly enough, so I'll try this way. No, demand that could not be met with ASEs would be met with other products. A reduced supply of ASEs does not mean there is a reduced supply of silver. Physical demand has little affect on spot price. That was proven with record sales of silver eagles and a falling spot price.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BlackBeardBlackBeard Posts: 1,064
    It may drive up the price of ASEs temporarily (then they would settle back down) but as for silver price, the private mints would fill the gap for stackers needs. There would be no shortage of available rounds. It may cause an increase in other countries mintage figures to fill the need for Government issued bullion.
    Witty sig line currently under construction. Thank you for your patience.
  • erickso1erickso1 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭


    << <i>please stop being so realistic and analytical about another Mint would make up the difference and so forth...it's a question asking as if, hypothetically, there are suddenly 25M less oz's of Silver to be produced over a period of years. >>



    The spot price should rise. How much? I don't know. That's as basic an answer as you can get for the question you asked.
  • Mission16Mission16 Posts: 1,413 ✭✭✭
    I would think the market would simply absorb the 25MM oz of silver not struck by the U.S. Mint. Premiums on the 5MM/year SAE's would likely rise, especially right after release, fall somewhat, then rise again when the new year is minted.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Any idea what percentage ASEs are of the silver market? At least the part that folks here dabble in.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,471 ✭✭✭✭

    Loves me some shiny!
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>let me google that for you >>



    I was thinking along the lines of bullion coins [i.e. ASEs, leafs] common bars [1,5,10,100 ouncers] rounds. Of the mix that APMEX, etc. sells to common investors/stackers I would guess the percentage of ASEs is small.

    So we are looking at silver coins of all type issued by official mints, ASE, Leafs, Philharmonics, etc. and so on and so forth. Also, bars and rounds struck/cast at private mints that are commonly stacked/flipped by the ordinary citizen. Not interested in shot, wire or other industrial forms.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • halfhunterhalfhunter Posts: 2,770 ✭✭✭
    Not going to happen as the mint is required by law to mint ASEs to demand.

    But hypothetically, I agree with most everyone else. Sunshine Minting would just turn those 25-30 million blanks into some other form of Ag, or folks would buy more Maples, Phils etc.

    Stackers are going to stack ! ! ! image

    HH
    Need the following OBW rolls to complete my 46-64 Roosevelt roll set:
    1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
    Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
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